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War, Shareholders as monitors, Hedging, Chinks in the EMH, and more!
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Jim Mahar
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Mar 24, 2003 15:08 PST
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War in Iraq, institutional shareholders as monitors, Hedging energy
risks, chinks in the EMH, and MUCH more!
FinanceProfessor News March 24, 2003
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FinanceProfessor.com
Bringing the Real World to the Classroom and vice versa!
Sign up for the free Newsletter at www.FinanceProfessor.com
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Top Stories
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1. Iraqi War
2. Institutional shareholders make good monitors
3. French Telecom’s rights issue
4. Incentives vs. Efficient markets
5. Are there more “super investors” than we thought?
6. Is the US stock market over-valued? Both an academic view and
Warren Buffett’s view
7. Should you have stocks in your retirement account? Zvi Bodie
weighs in
8. Oil prices fluctuate wildly.
9. The expensing of options
10. A response to the news of the Bonaventure basketball team.
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Hello everyone!
Sorry this is a bit late. I decided last week to wait until we saw
whether the war could be averted. But since it was not, I will make
this one shorter than normal as I am sure much of your “news-time” is
being consumed by war-related news.
jim
JimM-@FinanceProfessor.com
and now the news:
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Top Story
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Well, this is an easy call. The biggest story of week was the war in
Iraq. It cut across all areas (and will be included in each section),
but the main parts will be listed here.
Even before the war began stocks around the world rose on the
announcement of the ultimatum and the appreciation continued sharply for
throughout the first week. However as the weekend signaled a longer
than hoped for war, much of the gains were given back.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2860151.stm
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030318-035235-7905r
Want to know how coalition troops are doing? Watch the markets. Rapid
advancements and important victories are met with falling oil and gold
prices and a rising stock market. On the other hand, losses,
casualties, or other setbacks are leading to higher oil prices and a
lower stock market.
http://www.businesstoday.com/business/business/oil03242003.htm
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/stocks/stories/032403dnbuswarmarket.6b9b3.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2879789.stm
http://www.msnbc.com/news/534548.asp
http://www.msnbc.com/news/889965.asp
Step right up and take a guess! Your guess is as good as anyone else’s.
What will be the cost of the war and how will its impact be on
economies around the world. President Bush is asking Congress for
nearly $100b, add to that the cost of lost business worldwide, and the
cost of reconstruction will be many times the $100b. The war’s impact
on the economy will be tough to gauge, but it will be quite expensive.
However, proponents will argue that this cost, while great, is less than
the potential cost of doing nothing. Who is right? No one knows. That
is a difference between textbook examples and the real world. The real
world does not come with an answer key.
http://www.eubusiness.com/item/105755
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2003/0317/050a.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/2869441.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2860259.stm
http://www.metimes.com/2K3/issue2003-12/bus/egypt_business_roundups.htm
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dallas/business/stories/032403dnbuswarretail.6be86.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/24/international/worldspecial/24CND-BUSH.html
What will the war do to interest rates? It is hard to say. On one
hand, it will mean more government debt so rates will climb, but on the
other hand a drawn out war may slow the economy to the point of the Fed
cutting rates. Stay tuned.
http://www.businesstoday.com/business/real_estate/real03212003.htm
Financial institutions have joined in the efforts and have begun to
seize the Iraqi assets to use them for the people of Iraq. With the
threat of being locked out of the US market, several European banks have
begun to comply with US requests.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2881389.stm
The industry most hurt again seems to be the airlines as airlines around
the globe announced layoffs and scaled back on their flight schedules.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/890094.asp
http://www.msnbc.com/news/turbulentskies_front.asp
http://www.forbes.com/2003/03/18/cx_ld_0318faa.html
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Corporate Finance
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This is exciting! Well at least to me. :-) A forthcoming article by
Hartzell and Starks finds that as institutional ownership goes up, the
firm is more likely to use pay for performance plans. Additionally, the
level of CEO pay tends to go down. These findings suggest that
institutional investors make better monitors than ordinary investors do.
Possibly more convincing however, (since it solves the endogenity
problem which is that is the institutional investors may select which
stocks that pay for performance and pay managers less) is their analysis
that finds as managerial ownership goes up, pay goes down relative to
control groups in the periods that follow. (This one gets used in
class!)
http://www.afajof.org/Pdf/forthcoming/hartzell_starks.pdf
A forthcoming paper by Higgins, Howton, and Howton finds evidence that
closed-end mutual finds seem to time their issuance of SEO (Seasoned
Equity Offerings). This is because fund mangers seem to make issues
after periods of strong performance. Which largely is consistent with
what we see for regular stocks as well.
http://www.business.sc.edu/jfr/forthcoming.html
A rights issue is a way a firm can raise new money. Typically the firm
gives rights (think of them as coupons) to existing shareholders. The
rights (coupons) give the holder the right to purchase new shares at a
discount. Typically these rights can be sold if the investor does not
want to invest more money in the firm. This week’s French Telecom
provides a good example. The firm is hoping to raise 15 b Euro. In
order to do so, they are offering new shares via a rights issue at a
greater than 25% discount to the previous closing stock price.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,4501-622099,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2880159.stm
CEO pay numbers for 2002 are being made known. The preliminary figures
suggest that while pay was down about 10-15% for 2002.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/mar2003/nf20030321_1805_db035.htm
Financing the customer may sound like a great idea, but it can often
backfire if they can not pay. Remember you are not a bank and often do
have the expertise to gauge credit risks.
http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,8844||M|506,00.html
Well at least we all saw it coming. Spiegel, the parent company of Eddie
Bauer, declared bankruptcy. The company said it plans on remaining open
and that customers should not be affected.
http://www.fool.com/News/Take/2003/mft/mft03031707.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A42985-2003Mar17.html
The troubles continue at Gateway whose stock is now down 97% from its
high. This week, the computer manufacturers announced they were laying
off 1900 more.
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/business/5418994.htm
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/077/business/Gateway_to_lay_off_1_900_workers_close_80_stores+.shtml
After suffering through a very bad 2002, Richard Brown resigned from the
top spot at EDS. He was replaced by Michael Jordan (not that MJ!).
However, we probably should not feel too sorry for Brown who according
to the DallasNews, Brown has a $37 severance package.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/888596.asp
http://www.dallasnews.com/texassouthwest/ap/stories/AP_STATEGS_0600.html
Wow, what a great story on how Southwest Air uses derivatives to hedge
exposure to oil price swings. Some interesting facts: the firm is
paying the equivalent of about $23 a barrel and heating oil is a better
tie than is crude oil. Note to my classes: read this one! It is really
good. Also note that many firms choose not to hedge.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/23/business/yourmoney/23HEDG.html
Speaking of airlines, USAirways and its pilots union have reached a
tentative accord in which the bankrupt union will pay a portion of
pension plans obligations. If you remember, the firm has tried to
significantly cut their liabilities when under bankruptcy protection
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/23/business/23AIR.html
Rules limiting foreign ownership are always interesting from the
perspective of how people get around them. Take the likely deal where
DHL will acquire Airborne’s package delivery business for about $1
billion. The US has a rule that limits foreign ownership of airlines to
25%, so the two sides are structuring the deal to get around the
limitation.
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030324-083041-5719r
Worried that they may not be able to go ahead with a planned carve-out
of their cable division, AOL-Time Warner is looking for ways to cut
leverage.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/889761.asp
Who better than CFO.com to tell us what it takes to become a CFO?
http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,8874,00.html
Almost every intro corporate finance class uses ratios, but often it is
difficult to see how they are used in the real world. So, here’s an
example of using return on equity to screen stocks.
http://www.forbes.com/2003/03/21/cz_tm_0321sf.html
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Investments
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It is always interesting to see what happened when two theories clash.
For instance, I am largely a backer of the EMH (efficient market
hypothesis) which would suggest that mutual fund managers can not do
better than that the index and that overall all fund managers are about
as good as any other. However, more than I believe EMH, I am sure that
incentives are critical and that if you pay people to do something, it
usually will happen. So it was with great anticipation that I read the
forthcoming article by Elton, Gruber, and Blake in the Journal of
Finance (JF). The authors study whether mutual funds where managers
have an incentive pay system do better than those without. And they
find that yes incentives do seem to lead to better performance.
(Prediction, within the year, many more mutual funds will change their
incentive structure, as of now less than 2% of funds reward their
mangers with incentive pay plans.
http://www.afajof.org/Pdf/forthcoming/april23.pdf
Another chink in the EMH hypothesis. A paper by Coval, Hishleifer, and
Shumway finds that a significant proportion of investors did beat the
market for the 1990 to 1996. Moreover, the top 10% did so by am amazing
15 basis points per DAY! (There are 100 basis points per percent). READ
IT!
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=364000
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1830496
Is the US market overvalued? (See the next story for the perspective of
others). That is what Reinker and Tower try to determine by comparing
expected returns for US firms with those of other nations. Their
finding, which rests on the Gordon dividend growth model, suggests that
it is and that international investments may earn higher returns going
forward. Of course, this is no guarantee, but it is an interesting
paper none-the-less.
http://www.econ.duke.edu/Papers/Other/Tower/Equity_Returns.pdf
While they may have missed out on the biggest weekday rally in 20 years,
both Bill Gross (the head of Pimco’s total return fund) and Warren
Buffett spoke recently on the investment environment and each believes
that prices of US stocks are still too high. (see also above).
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030316/finance_gross_1.html
One reason why Buffett may be such a good investor is that many people
copy his stock picks. So since you may want to as well, here they are:
http://www.forbes.com/2003/03/17/cz_mm_0317sf.html
As long time readers of the newsletter saw last year, Zvi Bodie is
shaking up how investors save for retirement. Bodie advocates a using a
combination of risk free securities laddered to match the maturities
with the need for cash. Additionally (although not in the NY Times
articles) this plan, which can go by the poorly marketed names of
decumulation or duration matching, this type of strategy can also use
long-term derivatives (LEAPS) to allow the saver to also participate in
the upward stock price movements. The benefit? Less likelihood of
unpleasant surprises.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/18/business/retirement/18WALS.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/18/business/retirement/18BWALS.html
When racing (running) I go out of my way to get rid of any and all
excuses for a poor performance, since if not it is almost guaranteed
that the excuse would end up being used. Is the war and higher energy
costs going to serve as the excuse for firms who fail to live up to
expectations? Probably.
http://www.businesstoday.com/business/business/cap03242003.htm
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Financial Institutions and Markets
(also Money and Banking)
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Citigroup’s Sandy Weill pulled his name from consideration to the NYSE
Board after NY State’s attorney general Eliot Spitzer announced his
strong opposition. Weil has been accused of pressuring analysts for
favorable recommendations in order to win investment banking business.
If he had been selected, Weill would have been responsible for looking
out for investors, a position, that at best would be open to criticism.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=2&cid=580&u=/nm/20030324/bs_nm/financial_nyse_weill_dc
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/24/business/24WEIL.html
Japan’s securities market regulator the Financial Services Agency moved
to reduce the amount dealers can trade on their own account. The reason
is that regulators fear that the trading exposes the firms to added
risk.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030317/financial_japan_dealers_1.html
Mortgage delinquency rates fell for the fourth quarter of 2002.
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20030324/ON200303241115000849.var&column=P0DEC
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International Finance
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Liu Mingkang was named China’s new top bank regulator. His work is cut
out for him in for many Chinese banks seem to be in similar straights
that their Japanese banks are suffering from.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2879851.stm
One reason that Africa has had such a difficult time of competing
internationally is that many of the continents’ best leaves. This so
called “brain drain” is a serious problem, but The BBC reports that more
of the best and brightest are staying in Africa and some are even going
back to their homeland.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2844277.stm
Yes! Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. is ready to remove some of their
loans from their balance sheets by selling synthetic collateralized loan
obligations, or CLO.
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030324/0106000028_1.html
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Economics
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Is the war really what ails the economy? While some are optimistic, the
New York Times paints a pretty gloomy scenario where the economy remains
largely stagnant. The date has been pretty bad, for instance new homes
starts fell over 11% last month.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/24/business/24ECON.html
One thing that the pre-war stock and oil price decline did was to insure
that the Fed would wait before cutting interest rates.
http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/markets/aarontaskfree/10074671.html
In fact, there is some discussion of whether the Fed will be cutting
rates at all. Atlanta Fed’s Jack Guynn suggested that a rate hike may
be in order. FWIW Guynn was speaking at Bridgewater College near
Harrisonburg VA!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030324/economy_fed_guynn_inflation_2.html
As energy prices soared in February, so too did inflation, the CPI rose
.6% for the month. However, the core rate (which excludes energy and
food) was only up .1%. Similarly in the UK, where annual inflation is
running at 3% is above the goal of 2.5%, much of this gain can be traced
to higher energy prices. On the plus side of this, many believe the
risk of deflation is significantly lower now. (Mind you I am not sure I
agree. If oil prices fall as we have seen this week, then the core rate
of inflation is already very low and IF the world economy does not
recover fairly quickly, we might well be reading about deflation again
in the near future.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/888628.asp
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2871563.stm
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/24/business/24STOX.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2873445.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2860259.stm
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Personal Finance
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Charles Schwab joined the list of firms who are cutting their matching
for 401 k plans. While this may make sense from a short-term view, does
it send a signal to other firms that they too should cut their 401K
plans? If so, the money saved by cutting the matching, may be dwarfed
by loss business at Schwab.
http://slate.msn.com/?id=2080274
In an effort to cut costs, the IRS has “partnered” with various online
tax filing firms to allow many to file electronically for free. SO
before paying to file electronically, yo may want to look into whether
you qualify. However, as each partner sets its won criteria, you may
have to look around.
http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/tax/tips/index.cfm?story=taxtip-5
Poor returns in stocks, low interest rates, and overly optimistic
expectations have created problems for many retirees who are finding
that they may not have enough money to maintain their desired lifestyle.
Two solutions: gong back to work, and reverse mortgages.
http://www.nytimes.com/business/retirement/?8isc
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/18/business/retirement/18KILB.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030324/bizrates_retirees_1.html
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Energy Markets
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Oil from nations neighboring Iraq has for the time being at least
remained flowing and being shipped. As a result, oil prices, which
started falling in anticipation of the war, fell sharply during the
first few days of fighting only to rise slightly on Sunday as the war
seemed likely to go on for a while.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10481-2003Mar22.html
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/W/WAR_OIL_PRICES?SITE=TXDAM&TEMPLATE=BUSINESS.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2878077.stm
http://www.forbes.com/home/free_forbes/2003/0331/048a.html
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=1&cid=580&u=/nm/20030324/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc
How important is Iraqi oil?
http://www.marketplace.org/play/audio.php?media=/morning_report/2003/03/24_mktmorn0850&start=00:00:04:31.8&end=00:00:07:50.6
Violence and fighting have cut oil production in Nigeria as
Chevron-Texaco decided that the turmoil was too great and pulled out of
the nation, cutting daily oil production by at least by 440,000 barrels
of oil and overall by approximately 750.,000 barrels a day.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dallas/business/stories/032403dnbuschevrontexaco.6e2f9.html
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1311842-6078-0,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2880955.stm
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Money and Politics
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Many US states are facing budget deficits. This is at least partially
due to a slow economy and ion part due to increased demands from the
Federal government for both security and edition items. NYC estimates
they are spending an additional $5 million a week on security alone.
And an estimate by New Hampshire school administrators suggests that the
net cost of the new educational demands is $498 per pupil.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/24/business/24STOX.html
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Financial Service Industry
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Did ML help Enron commit fraudulent deals. Yes. Did they do so
knowingly? That is still being debated.
http://www.forbes.com/2003/03/17/cx_aw_0317mer.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2859543.stm
In what may be good news for those looking for work, the financial
services area was more profitable than many (myself included) would have
suspected. Leading the way was Bear Stearns, which reported profits up
52% largely as the result of their strong performance in the Mortgaged
Back Securities area.
http://www.iht.com/articles/90488.html
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1045511850369&p=1012571727108
http://reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=MZTZF3LMFUMMGCRBAELCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=2407197
Scott Burns points out that as yields are low, and equity returns are
negative, costs are playing a larger and larger role and some investors
may soon revolt. In an interesting article, Burns and Gary Shilling
suggest that significant changes are needed in the financial services
industry and point out that he changes will likely have to come from
outside (ala Southwest Air shaking up the airline industry.
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/scottburns/columns/2003/stories/031803dnbusburnscol.a1119.html
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Real Estate
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Houston real estate market still feeling effects of enron
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/19/business/19BRIC.html?8hpib
stay or sell or both
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/18/business/retirement/18MILF.html
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Accounting News
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Oh no, here we go again. HealthSouth has been accused of accounting
fraud and now may need a cash infusion to survive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/24/business/24HEAL.html
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20030324/ON200303240121000477.var&column=P0DFP
http://www.msnbc.com/news/889958.asp
The list of those to head the accounting oversight board got smaller
this week as the SEC is reported to have cut the number of “possibles”
to about 15. Are you on the list? Find out!
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1830785
There are some tax breaks available to those who are fighting in the
war. For instance, their pay is not taxable.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dallas/business/pyip/032403dnbusmoneytalk.dafdc.html
The Economist tells of how tech firms are lining up lobbyists to prevent
the expensing of options used for paying their employees. Basic
premise, not really sure how to price the derivatives, so don’t try.
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=1633500
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FinanceProfessor.com Site of the Week
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Erisk.com. I simply love the site. I know it has been site of the week
before, but it is so good, it earned it again. Try it, you’ll love the
case studies and the newsletter!
http://www.erisk.com
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Of interest to Researchers
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Tobin’s Q is the market value of assets divided by the replacement value
of the assets. As such, the calculation of Q can be quite difficult
with many assumptions. A new paper by Dadalt, Donaldson, and Garner
finds that sometimes the better measure is the easier method. Why? The
simpler methods tend to be based on more readily available data and
therefore less biased.
http://www.business.sc.edu/jfr/forthcoming.html
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What I am reading
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Between all of the news on the radio/TV, and making several new CDs,
and just keeping busy I have not been reading nearly as much as normal.
I am almost done with River Town by Peter Hessler. It is about 2 Peace
Corps volunteer teachers who go to China in the late 1990s. I really
like it! It really is interesting and definitely makes me glad for all
of the freedom of the US! And Hessler is a serious runner which makes
it even better! :-)
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060953748/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442
I am midway through 101 Questions and Answers on Islam. I have learned
quite a bit but just need more time to read it.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0517220938/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442
The Money Tree by Ronald Groenke and Wade Keller. Now I must confess,
the reason I started this is because the authors are subscribers to the
newsletter, but it has turned out to be a interesting look at selling
calls on stocks that you already own. It is written as a novel, yet is
full of financial strategies and terms. I am still not 100% convinced
that opportunity costs are completely considered but definitely worth
the time! I will let you know more when I finish it.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0967412811/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442
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Bonaventure News
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As many of you saw, St. Bonaventure went through some hard times in
recent weeks. A player on the men’s basketball team was found to be
ineligible and the team had to forfeit its games in the Atlantic 10. To
make matters worse, the University president had signed off allowing him
to play. Then in a moment of much pain, the team quit and decided to
forfeit their last two games. Quickly Bonaventure went to the top story
in ESPN and other sports networks.
While that made news, what has not made nearly as much news is the
Bonaventure response to this story. The president resigned, the
basketball coach, and assistant basketball coach, and the AD were placed
on administrative leave. However, more than that, was the amazing
speed at which the Bonaventure “community” came together and began
working to make sure the same thing never happens again. It was
actually quite inspiring. So to the many who wrote when the news was
happening, thank you for your concern, but Bonaventure will survive and
the basketball team will emerge stronger, at least better rounded, than
ever. (see the first quote below)
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Quotes of the week:
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Real heroes are [people] who fall and fail and are flawed, but win out
in the end because they’ve stayed true to their ideas and beliefs and
commitments---Kevin Costner
Friendship is one mind in two bodies---Mencious
Life can only disappoint you if you let it---Mark Hopkins
I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the
past---Thomas Jefferson
We must be the change we wish to see in the world---Ghandi
It’s ok to make a mistake---anonymous
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Well there you have it. I hope you enjoyed it. It is a bit shorter,
but not terribly so. I tried to shy away from the war as events happen
so fast that whatever I write will be out of date by the time you read
it.
I really do appreciate all of the people who take time to forward this
to others. Thanks! Have them sign up too. The more the merrier and it
is free, so why not?
Have a great couple of weeks! If you have any ideas etc for either
the newsletter or the Financerfessor.com web site, please let me know.
Thanks again!
Jim
JimM-@FinanceProfessor.com
Where spring has begun :-)…the long winter led to some flooding, but
nothing too severe and the warmer temperatures are great! Even the
robins are back!
Who is excited about the Bills improved defense.
Who planted three pine trees this weekend.
Who has no idea of what to expect from the Mets.
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Oh and a final favor…pass this on to someone you think would like it….a
fellow student, a past teacher, your current teacher, your parents,
anyone who it might help. Thanks!
Thanks for forwarding this so much. That is the only way I know this
newsletter is growing so fast. :-)
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copyright 2003 FinanceProfessor.com
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