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Tyndall Centre Comments on Climate Change Report  Mike Johnston
 Feb 02, 2007 09:18 PST 

By Professor Mike Hulme

Professor Mike Hulme comments on the Working Group 1 Report of the
FourthAssessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
ChangeThe Report released today by the IPCC presents an authoritative
assessment of thescientific understanding of climate change as a
physical phenomenon. This newassessment confirms the physical
scientific basis upon which the work of the TyndallCentre is founded:
the changes in climate now being observed are greater than anyrecorded
in recent human history, human influence on climate is now the
dominantfactor driving these changes, and that further changes in a
wide range of climate relatedrisks are inevitable as the century
unfolds. The Centre’s work is orientedtowards understanding the options
to limit these risks by actions taken now and inthe next few decades:
(a) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and (b) to stimulateacross
societies greater resilience to climate-related risks.For the UK, the
existing recommended guidelines for climate change planningcontained in
the four UKCIP02 scenarios (from low emissions to high emissions)remain
consistent with this new IPCC report: a likely annual warming of
between 2and 3.5oC by the 2080s, a rise is sea-level of between 10 and
70cm, moreheatwaves, more heavy winter rain, and less wintry weather.
It remains very unlikelythat the Gulf Stream will be radically altered
this century.The Working Group 1 report does not assess our knowledge
about what futurechanges in climate might mean for the living world and
for human infrastructure, nordoes it make comment about our ability to
mitigate these changes in climate or toadapt to them. The reports by
Working Groups 2 and 3 (to which many TyndallCentre researchers have
contributed) will address some of these questions, and aredue to be
published in April and May respectively.

Posted By Mike Johnston to H2OPower at 2/02/2007 10:46:00 AM
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