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Re: [zimsite] Re: [Mwananchi] Tsvangirai is a stooge, says Sata  Jupiter Punungwe
 Feb 04, 2012 02:00 PST 


On 04/02/2012 04:40, George Ayittey wrote:
 At this point, however, the future is rather bleak. The democratic
struggle in Zimbabwe is dead in the water. Momentum has been lost and
we are drifting. We don't know whether we are going or coming. The
unity government is not working. We do not have a new Constitution and
we don't know when elections will be held.
Prof your are making the mistake is assuming that the leaders of the MDC
have a passion for democratising Zimbabwe at the personal level. Like I
have said from since when the MDC was formed, most of them are largely
looking for the opportunity to line their pockets - pure and simple
opportunism. The talk of democracy is the sheepskin to cover the wolf of
greed beneath.

If opportunity comes while they eat alongside Zanu-PF why upset the
apple-cart. If they get the chance they will stretch the GNU for another
year or two beyond 2013 while they 'eat'.

Have you noticed that the MDC's approach has become more to manage their
external supporters when they demand to see more results while they
maintain their position in the GNU. So called 'outstanding issues' have
never been pursued consistently and diligently.
 Even if elections are held today and they are free and fair, I doubt
very much if the opposition can unseat Mugabe. Not when you have 23
opposition parties and the MDC itself is split. And I doubt very much
if we will be able to get much help from Zuma, SADC or the West.
In my view it is not just elections that matter, but also the
psychological management of the war veteran cadre that control
Zimbabwe's armed forces. They can simply refuse to hand over power if
they feel threatened. It does not matter how they do it, whether is by
rigging the election, intimidating the voters or a direct coup d'etat.
According to some allegations, they have already done it once before by
telling Mugabe that he cannot resign.

To me the key to a smooth handover of power is managing how these people
perceive that handover. Right now they perceive it as a threat to be
fought against, which makes the smooth handover very unlikely.
 
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