NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth - dropped from
one-in-45,000
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Richard Fleetwood
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Oct 07, 2009 12:28 PDT
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Note from Rich
"one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million" claim
4 in a million equates to 1 in 250,000. This means the likelihood of a hit
has lessoned by roughly 80%....
That remaining 20% (1 in 250,000) is still noteworthy.
We may not know the truth until it's too late.
Still, might be a good evening for stargazing...in 2036.
Also, note this...from Wikipedia
| | *99942 Apophis* (pronounced /əˈpɒfɪs/<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:IPA_for_English>,
previously known by its provisional designation<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_designation_in_astronomy>
*2004 MN4*) is a near-Earth asteroid<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_asteroid>that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial
observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike
the Earth <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth> in 2029. Additional
observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility
of an impact on Earth <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event> or the
Moon <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon> in 2029. However, a possibility
remains that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass
through a gravitational keyhole<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_keyhole>,
a precise region in space no more than about 600 meters across, that would
set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid
at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_Scale>until August 2006. It broke the record for the highest level on the Torino
Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.[5]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#cite_note-nasanews146-4>
Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole
would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a
Level 0 on the Torino Scale. *As of October 7, 2009, the impact
probability for April 13, 2036, is calculated as 1 in 250,000.[6]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#cite_note-5>An additional impact date in 2037 was also identified; the impact
probability for that encounter was calculated as 1 in 12.3 million.*
Many scientists <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientist> agree that
Apophis warrants closer scrutiny and, to that end, in February 2008 the Planetary
Society <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_Society> awarded $50,000
in prize money to companies and students<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student>who submitted designs for space
probes <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_probe> that would put a
tracking device on or near the asteroid.[7]<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#cite_note-competition-6>
-
|
--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: NASA News Services <nasa_subs-@service.govdelivery.com>
Date: Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 1:17 PM
Subject: NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth
To: rafl-@gmail.com
NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward
Earth<http://links.govdelivery.com/track?type=click&enid=bWFpbGluZ2lkPTU5OTA5OSZtZXNzYWdlaWQ9UFJELUJVTC01OTkwOTkmZGF0YWJhc2VpZD0xMDAxJnNlcmlhbD0xMjE1NTgzNzI1JmVtYWlsaWQ9cmFmbGVldEBnbWFpbC5jb20mdXNlcmlkPXJhZmxlZXRAZ21haWwuY29tJmV4dHJhPSYmJg==&&&100&&&http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html>
*Tue, 06 Oct 2009 23:00:00 -0500*
Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a
large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced
likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036.
------------------------------
Dwayne Brown
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1726
dwayne.-@nasa.gov
DC Agle
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-393-9011
ag-@jpl.nasa.gov
Oct. 7, 2009
RELEASE : 09-232
NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth
PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have
recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a
significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in
2036.
The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football
fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve
Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena,
Calif. They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American
Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on
Oct. 8.
"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the
public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated
computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability
of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from
one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."
A majority of the data that enabled the updated orbit of Apophis came from
observations Dave Tholen and collaborators at the University of Hawaii's
Institute for Astronomy in Manoa made. Tholen pored over hundreds of
previously unreleased images of the night sky made with the University of
Hawaii's 88-inch telescope, located near the summit of Mauna Kea.
Tholen made improved measurements of the asteroid's position in the images,
enabling him to provide Chesley and Chodas with new data sets more precise
than previous measures for Apophis. Measurements from the Steward
Observatory's 90-inch Bok telescope on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the Arecibo
Observatory on the island of Puerto Rico also were used in Chesley's
calculations.
The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into
the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close
encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently
at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where
Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the
need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will
diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired.
Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting
Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any
possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make
a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April
13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth's surface.
"The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an
asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not
something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the
Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we
continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our
AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter
feed."
The science of predicting asteroid orbits is based on a physical model of
the solar system which includes the gravitational influence of the sun,
moon, other planets and the three largest asteroids.
NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using
both ground and space-based telescopes. The Near Earth-Object Observations
Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects,
characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any
could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission
Directorate in Washington. Cornell University operates the Arecibo
Observatory under a cooperative agreement with the National Science
Foundation in Arlington, Va.
For more information about asteroids and near-Earth objects, visit:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch
For more information about NASA, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov
- end -
--
//* ----- Who I Am ----- *//
Richard Fleetwood
Founder/Director - SurvivalRing
http://www.survivalring.org
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<div>Note from Rich</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million" claim</div>
<div> </div>
<div>4 in a million equates to 1 in 250,000. This means the likelihood of a hit has lessoned by roughly 80%....</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That remaining 20% (1 in 250,000) is still noteworthy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>We may not know the truth until it's too late. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Still, might be a good evening for stargazing...in 2036.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Also, note this...from Wikipedia</div>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">
<p><b>99942 Apophis</b> (pronounced <span class="IPA" title="Pronunciation in the International Phonetic Alphabet (IPA)"><a title="Wikipedia:IPA for English" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:IPA_for_English"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode">/əˈpɒfɪs/</font></a></span>, previously known by its <a title="Provisional designation in astronomy" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_designation_in_astronomy">provisional designation</a> <b><span style="WHITE-SPACE: nowrap">2004 MN<sub>4</sub></span></b>) is a <a class="mw-redirect" title="Near-Earth asteroid" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_asteroid">near-Earth asteroid</a> that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the <a title="Earth" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth">Earth</a> in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an <a title="Impact event" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event">impact on Earth</a> or the <a title="Moon" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon">Moon</a> in 2029. However, a possibility remains that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a <a title="Gravitational keyhole" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_keyhole">gravitational keyhole</a>, a precise region in space no more than about 600 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the <a title="Torino Scale" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_Scale">Torino impact hazard scale</a> until August 2006. It broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-nasanews146_4-0"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#cite_note-nasanews146-4"><span>[</span>5<span>]</span></a></sup></p>
<p>Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the keyhole would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006 Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. <strong><font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffff00">As of October 7, 2009, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is calculated as 1 in 250,000.<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-5"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#cite_note-5"><span>[</span>6<span>]</span></a></sup> An additional impact date in 2037 was also identified; the impact probability for that encounter was calculated as 1 in 12.3 million</font>.</strong></p>
<p>Many <a title="Scientist" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientist">scientists</a> agree that Apophis warrants closer scrutiny and, to that end, in February 2008 the <a class="mw-redirect" title="Planetary Society" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_Society">Planetary Society</a> awarded $50,000 in prize money to companies and <a title="Student" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student">students</a> who submitted designs for <a title="Space probe" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_probe">space probes</a> that would put a tracking device on or near the asteroid.<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-competition_6-0"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#cite_note-competition-6"><span>[</span>7<span>]</span></a></sup><br>
<br></p></blockquote>
<div class="gmail_quote">-</div>
<div class="gmail_quote"> </div>
<div class="gmail_quote">--------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername">NASA News Services</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:nasa_subs-@service.govdelivery.com">nasa_subs-@service.govdelivery.com</a>></span><br>
Date: Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 1:17 PM<br>Subject: NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth<br>To: <a href="mailto:rafl-@gmail.com">rafl-@gmail.com</a><br><br></div>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<p><a href="http://links.govdelivery.com/track?type=click&;enid=bWFpbGluZ2lkPTU5OTA5OSZtZXNzYWdlaWQ9UFJELUJVTC01OTkwOTkmZGF0YWJhc2VpZD0xMDAxJnNlcmlhbD0xMjE1NTgzNzI1JmVtYWlsaWQ9cmFmbGVldEBnbWFpbC5jb20mdXNlcmlkPXJhZmxlZXRAZ21haWwuY29tJmV4dHJhPSYmJg==&&&100&&&http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html" target="_blank">NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth</a><br>
<font style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal" size="-2"><em>Tue, 06 Oct 2009 23:00:00 -0500</em></font></p>
<p></p>
<p>Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036.</p>
<p></p>
<hr>
<div class="name_address">
<div class="address">Dwayne Brown <br>Headquarters, Washington <br>202-358-1726 <br><a href="mailto:dwayne.-@nasa.gov">dwayne.-@nasa.gov</a> <br> <br>DC Agle <br>Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. <br>
818-393-9011 <br><a href="mailto:ag-@jpl.nasa.gov">ag-@jpl.nasa.gov</a> <br> <br></div>
<div class="promodatepress">Oct. 7, 2009</div>
<div style="CLEAR: both"> </div></div><span class="bold">RELEASE : 09-232</span>
<div class="space_div"> </div>
<div class="space_div"> </div><span class="bold">NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth </span>
<div class="space_div"> </div>
<div class="space_div"> </div>PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036. <br>
<br>The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on Oct. 8. <br>
<br>"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million." <br>
<br>A majority of the data that enabled the updated orbit of Apophis came from observations Dave Tholen and collaborators at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy in Manoa made. Tholen pored over hundreds of previously unreleased images of the night sky made with the University of Hawaii's 88-inch telescope, located near the summit of Mauna Kea. <br>
<br>Tholen made improved measurements of the asteroid's position in the images, enabling him to provide Chesley and Chodas with new data sets more precise than previous measures for Apophis. Measurements from the Steward Observatory's 90-inch Bok telescope on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the Arecibo Observatory on the island of Puerto Rico also were used in Chesley's calculations. <br>
<br>The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired. <br>
<br>Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth's surface. <br>
<br>"The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed." <br>
<br>The science of predicting asteroid orbits is based on a physical model of the solar system which includes the gravitational influence of the sun, moon, other planets and the three largest asteroids. <br><br>NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground and space-based telescopes. The Near Earth-Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet. <br>
<br>JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Cornell University operates the Arecibo Observatory under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation in Arlington, Va. <br>
<br>For more information about asteroids and near-Earth objects, visit: <br><br>
<p align="center"><a href="http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch">http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch</a> </p><br>For more information about NASA, visit: <br><br>
<p align="center"><a href="http://www.nasa.gov/">http://www.nasa.gov</a> </p>
<div class="space_div"> </div>
<p align="center">- end - </p><br><br clear="all"></div>
<div></div><br>-- <br>//* ----- Who I Am ----- *//<br>Richard Fleetwood<br>Founder/Director - SurvivalRing<br><a href="http://www.survivalring.org">http://www.survivalring.org</a><br><br>Follow me on...<br><br>Twitter<br>
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