|
HICKMAN COUNTY HOME DEFENSE
|
Alpha-Omega
|
Jul 30, 2003 17:00 PDT
|
HICKMAN COUNTY HOME DEFENSE
THREAT ASSESSMENT
Realistically, Hickman County has no targets of any publicity or
military value that would place it in a high-risk situation from a
terrorist or even military attack by a foreign group or power.
Yet by the same token, the county would be heavily impacted from any
such attack on Nashville, which by virtue of its being the state
capitol, would be one of the state's primary targets.
That impact would be of four types: transportation, communications,
economic and social.
TRANSPORTATION: As was seen in New York on Sept. 11, 2001, the
transportation arteries would be among the first to be heavily affected.
The main arteries would be blocked or greatly slowed by security
precautions, not to mention the massive outflux of civilian traffic from
nearby large population centers.
COMMUNICATIONS: Local/area telecommunications would probably be
interrupted before long-distance communications would be, because of the
redundancy in national communication networks that does not exist at the
local level.
ECONOMIC: Any disruption of normal activities in Nashville would most
likely make it difficult, at least for the short term, for Hickman
County residents employed in Nashville or its immediate surrounding
area, due to transportation interruptions and/or chemical, nuclear or
bio-warfare contamination.
Additionally, it would be reasonable to expect possible interruptions in
the power supply, and in food and medical supplies which might be
interrupted by a break in transportation networks.
SOCIAL: In the event of an incident of major magnitude resulting in
panic in the Nashville area, it is quite likely that Hickman County and
others in this direction would find itself inundated with "refugees"
trying to get out of the city. There would likely be large numbers of
citizens without water, food, shelter or the basic necessities of life,
and so the challenge the county would face would be in meeting these
needs on, hopefully, a short-term basis.
Looking beyond short-term risks, there is an increasing long-term threat
of a possible nuclear attack by China, either alone or in concert with
other hostile nations. This is clearly a part of long-term Chinese
military planning, as we have confirmed from the statements of top
Chinese military officials and in official Chinese military publications
and documents which provide for a time frame of somewhere around
2005-2010.
For the past ten years, the Chinese military has been positioning
itself, with large airbases and command centers in the Panama Canal
area, islands just off the U.S. coast and in other Latin American
countries to take advantage of a quick strike. There has been a strong
resurgence of so-called "liberation movements" in South America, aided
by the election of national leaders who have expressed strong
anti-American and pro-communist sympathies, such as in Venezuela.
Most recent military assessments point to the probability that China
would first attempt to oust the U.S. from what it views as its own
"sphere of influence" in Southeast Asia and the Pacific - Taiwan, South
Korea, Japan, Malaysia, etc.
This may seem to be distant from us - both in time and geography, but
such a possibility would clearly affect us locally in social and
economic impact, just as would the short-term effects of a terrorist
attack by a politial or religious group.
THE CHALLENGE TO LOCAL POLITICAL & LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES
The first challenge is to obtain accurate and unbiased threat assessment
information, and in many respects the federal government cannot be
relied upon for such quality information. A common complaint before and
since the events of Sept. 11, 2001 is the lack of information available
from federal agencies to local law enforcement, fire protection and
emergency planning agencies. Some of this is due to legitimate national
security concerns at the federal level; some of it is due to the
isolation of the federal bureaucracy from local and state agencies.
The funding at the local and state level is virtually nonexistent,
leaving such agencies on their own and with few local resources to do
much beyond armchair theorizing when it comes to preventing a disaster
of this magnitude.
What is more readily available is information on how to deal with the
aftermath of such an event. Realistically, no locality has the resources
or manpower to prevent such an attack; the only thing that can be done
is to prepare a sound plan for dealing with the aftermath.
In largely rural counties such as ours, where there are no attractive
targets (terrorists will seek high-publicity, high-profile targets), it
makes planning easier, but the more indirect fall-out (transportation,
communications, economic and social), as mentioned earlier, does pose
the need for planning along those lines.
Perhaps the biggest challenge local officials would face would be in
maintaining clear channels of communication to the public - to provide
adequate information yet not instigate needless panic. The Department of
Homeland Security itself is finding out what a field of egg shells this
is to walk through.
SURVEY OF ASSETS AND NEEDS
It would be useful to conduct a survey of local assets and needs
covering the four main areas mentioned above as well as medical
facilities.
For example, a survey of the major grocery stores would be useful to
determine:
a. How often their stock is replenished
b. How large is that stock, i.e., how many days could a store remain
viable without new food shipments
c. How are those supplies delivered - what major traffic arteries are
used.
Similar surveys should be taken in regards to local water supplies and
the ways in which they might be interrupted or contaminated.
What contingency plans are in place by power and telecommunications
companies serving the county? How would fire protection, law enforcement
and emergency management units be impacted by major interruptions and
what backup support would be available (and in what time frames) to work
around such interruptions?
What local assets (vacant buildings, libraries, etc.) could be used as
storage or distribution points for food, water, communications centers,
medical care, etc.?
What assets can be borrowed temporarily from other local units - tables,
telephones, computers, power generators, etc., etc. Inventories of such
equipment should be made to determine what could be made available
without a serious disruption in day-to-day government operations.
The various local government agencies will need to have an internal
county-wide chain of command. To what agency or political body will they
all report? From what office will press or public statements originate?
This should be clearly defined well ahead of time to minimize confusion,
panic and contradiction.
While FEMA and the Dept. of Homeland Security will undoubtedly play the
major role at the federal level, it is only prudent to put into place a
local command structure, since FEMA would be stretched very thing and
most of the burden will fall on local, county and state units. It will
take years for the new Department of Homeland Security to consolidate
its own assets and become functional. Local government can move much
quicker and is far better attuned to the local needs and responses.
It would probably be advisable to break the county down into smaller,
more manageable units. I understand there is an effort to create ten
Citizen's Corps teams of 20 people each in various parts of the county.
What will be their responsibility and authority? How will they
communicate? To whom will they report? Will there be 10 sub-command
posts in the county, equipped with computer and communications equipment
to form a county-wide network ... or will they be simply a group of
citizens with nothing to do and no tools with which to do it? What
checks and balances will be in place to prevent vigilantiism?
Computer databases will need to be standardized, as will any report or
other paperwork forms. How can the form of this information be
integrated into those databases, reports, etc. used at state and federal
levels? In the event of communications interruptions, it might be
advisable to have shortwave radio (ham) operators available. Can Citizen
Band frequencies be utilized? What citizens already have such equipment
that could be used without the county incurring additional cost?
In the event of an influx of a transient population from other areas, it
will be necessary to catalog and, at least to some extent, track these
individuals so family members can know where missing relatives are, so
these populations can receive necessary food, water, medical care,
shelter, etc. Existing social service agencies could be pressed into
action, but they would need supplemental assistance from other areas of
the county to avoid an unmanageable backlog of data - and a restive mob
of people - at the one or two existing social service facilities.
The technical problems are not all that difficult. If state or federal
databases need certain fields of data, these could be incorporated into
local software using off-the-shelf databases such as FileMaker or
Microsoft Excel.
What will be more difficult is breaking down the data integration needs
to satisfy the demands of multiple agencies at a higher level. This is
where the state and federal emergency management agencies need to
clearly define their data needs well in advance of the time they may be
needed.
What kinds of skills will be needed in the countywide areas to support
the proposed ten teams or so? We would need carpentry skills,
electrical, plumbing, IT, medical, fire protection, law enforcement,
etc.
In our own part of the county (Duck River) we have a volunteer fire
department and a community building that could be pressed into service,
as well as a number of churches. These and other already well-known
community centers such as schools could be designated as area command
centers.
In terms of public relations and public responsibility, it may advisable
to set up a program similar to Neighborhood Watch organizations, even in
rural areas, where designated residents would be responsible for
gathering information on those who are old, handicapped, feeble, ill,
alone with no family, or who have special medical or medical equipnment
needs.
For example, who's going to check on Mrs. Jones, who lives by herself
and has arthritis and has had heart surgery? There needs to be a
Neighbor to Neighbor commitment on the part of the citizens. This could
all be incorporated into a county-wide Citizen's Corps and done at a
minimum of cost and government involvement.
Any government presence, especially in rural areas where there is a
greater distrust of government, needs to be subdued and minimalized.
This should not be some program "imposed from above."
While far from complete, this assessment illustrates at least some of
the issues that need to be addressed in more detail. I hope you find it
useful.
|
|
 |
|
