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Mon, 26 Jan 04
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NE-@latvia-usa.org
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Jan 26, 2004 09:44 PST
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NATO ENLARGEMENT DAILY BRIEF (NEDB)
Monday, 26 January 2004, 12:44 EDT
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* POWELL PREDICTS ALL NATO MEMBERS WILL JOIN IN STABILIZING
IRAQ ? AFP
* 68.7 % IN LATVIA SUPPORT MEMBERSHIP IN NATO ? LETA /
Janis Eglitis
* EU, NATO HOPE FOR BOSNIA TRANSFER BY END OF 2004 ? AFP
* GEORGIANS GREET NEW PRESIDENT WITH ROSE PETALS, HIGH
HOPES ? WP / Peter Slevin
* POWELL, VISITING RUSSIA, OUTLINES U.S. CONCERNS ? Reuters
* SERBIAN PARTIES REMAIN SPLIT ON COALITION PLANS ? Reuters
* JAPAN ORDERS GROUND TROOPS TO IRAQ ? AP
* PENTAGON REMAINS COMMITTED TO CURRENT MILITARY END
STRENGTH - Defense News / Vince Crawley
* 25 U.S. INVESTMENT PROJECTS LAUNCHED AFTER POLISH PLANE
BUY: LOCKHEED MARTIN ? AFP
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POWELL PREDICTS ALL NATO MEMBERS WILL JOIN IN STABILIZING
IRAQ
AFP, 21 Jan 04
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell on Jan. 21 predicted
that all 26 NATO members, including those who opposed the
war in Iraq, would participate in Iraqi stabilization
efforts by the end of 2004.
In an interview with a Philadelphia radio station arranged
to highlight the foreign policy elements of President
George W. Bush?s annual ?State of the Union? address Jan.
20, Powell noted that 18 of the 26 NATO nations were
already present in Iraq.
?Of those 26 nations in the NATO alliance, 18 of them have
troops in the Gulf; have troops in Iraq with us,? he said,
defending Bush?s claim that the war in Iraq was not a
unilateral U.S. move and had in fact been international in
scope.
?So is that not NATO-involved, or is it NATO-involved??
Powell asked.
?Now, it may not be as an alliance with all 26, but 18 of
the 26 said, ?We?re with you, America,? and those who are
not with us, well, watch.
?They?ll come along as we try to get NATO involved later
this year to take over some of the responsibility in Iraq,?
Powell said.
NATO members France, Germany and, to a lesser extent,
Belgium, vehemently opposed the U.S.-led war in Iraq.
68.7 % OF LATVIA?S RESIDENTS SUPPORT MEMBERSHIP IN NATO
LETA, 10 Jan 04, by janis eglitis
RIGA, Jan 10 (LETA) - More than two thirds of Latvia's
residents, 68.7 percent, support Latvia's membership in
NATO, according to a public opinion survey "Latvijas fakti"
carried out last December.
Since the previous poll in June 2003, residents' support
for Latvia's membership in NATO has increased 1.3 percent.
Compared with June, more residents said in December they
believed that NATO membership would raise Latvia's prestige
and make it a more influential country internationally.
25.4 percent of the polled said they supported Latvia's
move to NATO as NATO membership would enhance national
security. This answer was also the most popular last June.
The number of residents who believe that NATO membership is
unnecessary has decreased slightly. 23.1 percent of the
polled residents said they did not approve of Latvia's
membership in NATO, 2.9 percent down from December 2002.
Surveyed residents were also requested to comment on
Latvian soldiers' participation in NATO-led missions. Most
- 53.3 percent - said they supported Latvia's participation
in such missions, 21.8 percent said it was wrong, 13.7
percent said it was not important.
The last poll also indicates that fewer people complain
that they have insufficient information about Latvia's
integration into NATO. December 2002, 14.1 percent said
they knew little about Latvia's move to NATO, the figure
was 12.1 percent last June, and 9.9 percent last December.
EU, NATO HOPE FOR BOSNIA TRANSFER BY END OF 2004
AFP, 21 Jan 04
NATO and the European Union are in initial talks for the EU
to take over peacekeeping duties in Bosnia by the end of
this year, but the date might be pushed back, top officials
said Jan. 21.
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said after
talks with EU foreign affairs chief Javier Solana that the
two organizations were holding ?exploratory contacts? for
the EU to replace NATO peacekeepers in Bosnia.
?It is a bit difficult to give an exact date. Of course a
lot of military planning is necessary. You can?t do this
overnight,? the NATO chief told reporters.
A transfer of the NATO-led Stabilization Force (SFOR) in
Bosnia toward the end of this year ?would not be wide off
the mark,? he said, ?but I don?t know if we?re going to
make that because it?s a complex operation.?
Solana said: ?We in the European Union are beginning to
prepare for the post-SFOR (situation) in cooperation with
NATO. In any case we are ready.?
De Hoop Scheffer said one of the issues facing the
transatlantic military alliance was what ?residual role? it
would exercise in Bosnia, where NATO has maintained a
military presence since 1995 which now numbers 12,000
troops.
EU countries have agreed in principle to deploy this year a
6,000-strong force of their own in Bosnia, possibly under
British command, to replace SFOR.
It would be only the bloc?s second peacekeeping operation,
after EU troops deployed in Macedonia last March. In
Bosnia, the EU took over policing responsibilities from the
United Nations a year ago.
GEORGIANS GREET NEW PRESIDENT WITH ROSE PETALS, HIGH HOPES
SAAKASHVILI TAKES OFFICE AFTER PROTESTS OUSTED SHEVARDNADZE
Washington Post, 26 jan 04, by Peter Slevin
TBILISI, Georgia. Jan. 25 -- Red rose petals floated from
the sky as thousands of Georgians celebrated their hopes
for a new era at the inauguration Sunday of a youthful
president, two months after a triumph over corrupt rule.
As children waved the country's bright new flag and adults
spoke of fresh possibility, the ceremony for 36-year-old
President Mikheil Saakashvili echoed the spirit of the East
European revolutions of 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet
Union.
Saakashvili, a U.S.-trained lawyer, promised integrity and
hard work in pursuit of Georgia's "unification, security
and well-being." He said he wanted to pull separatist
regions back into the fold and he reached out to Russia,
which has refused to withdraw several thousand troops from
the former Soviet republic.
"We don't need Russia to be our enemy. We need Russia to be
our good friend," Saakashvili declared outside Parliament
where, bearing roses, he led a decisive Nov. 22 protest.
"Today, as my first act, I am offering a friendly hand to
Russia and I am waiting for a friendly response."
The crowd cheered, yet Saakashvili left no doubt which
country he considers Georgia's most powerful international
ally. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell was the guest of
honor at the day-long festivities, overshadowing his
Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.
"If Moscow will change their politics," Saakashvili told
reporters on inauguration eve, "we'll have close contacts
with Russia as well."
Georgia, an impoverished Caucasus nation of 4.5 million,
must navigate a difficult road as it seeks to overcome
decades of Soviet domination and a dozen years of
increasingly sclerotic rule by Eduard Shevardnadze, who was
pressured to resign by mass demonstrations after rigged
parliamentary elections in November.
The government, unable to collect taxes, is bloated and
broke. Georgia shares a border with war-battered Chechnya
and is struggling with Russian-backed secession movements
in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Above all,
the new administration is confronting a stalled economy
hampered by cronyism and corruption.
In recent weeks, Georgia's interim leadership has jailed
prominent officials from the Shevardnadze government on
corruption charges, including the energy minister, the head
of the state railroad and the chief of the national soccer
federation. Arrest warrants have been issued for the leader
of Georgia's largest region and several deputy cabinet
ministers.
Saakashvili, for the first time, left open the possibility
that Shevardnadze, who turned 76 on Sunday, could be
prosecuted. He said he remained personally opposed to a
trial, but asserted that the law should take its course.
The country's biggest industries, he said, are owned by
Shevardnadze's family.
"Before today, the government was trying to protect itself
from the people. Now, the people should be protected by the
government," Saakashvili told the crowd outside Parliament.
"There were times when government punished people. Now, the
people will be able to punish guilty government officials."
As the speech ended with a pledge to dedicate his
presidency to Georgians who died for national freedom,
Georgians now impoverished and a new generation of
Georgians "and their demands," helicopters roared overhead,
releasing flurries of rose petals in honor of the "rose
revolution."
Saakashvili, who once bicycled to classes at George
Washington University from his Dupont Circle apartment, has
a degree from Columbia Law School and has studied in
Florence and Strasbourg, France. He aspires to draw his
country toward Europe and the West.
Nine in 10 voters backed Saakashvili in the presidential
election earlier this month after other opposition leaders
deferred to him, and now they expect him to act.
"We want to get rid of the old government, not just the old
president. We want fairness and justice," said Tamila
Nikuradze, 35, a teacher who took part in the November
protests. "People are giving him time and demanding much
from him. People will hold him accountable."
While his two principal partners in protest, Nino
Burdzhanadze and Zurab Zhvania, hesitated about demanding
Shevardnadze's resignation, Saakashvili insisted. And he
outmaneuvered Shevardnadze, demonstrating a toughness that
many Georgians say they respect.
"This young man inspires people with his energy, his
dedication and also his moral authority. One can feel it
everywhere," said Alexander Rondeli, director of the
Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International
Studies. "We had already forgotten when we last had this
spirit."
Saakashvili said he would ask the United States -- which
has contributed nearly $1 billion in aid to Georgia in the
past 12 years -- for help. Powell, who shared the stage at
a town hall meeting with the young president immediately
after the inauguration, did nothing to lower Georgian
expectations.
"You can be sure the United States will be with you every
step of the way," Powell said in a session broadcast across
the nation. He said "the doors to NATO remain open" if
Georgia meets required standards, and said he would urge
Russia to withdraw its troops from Georgian territory in
talks Monday with President Vladimir Putin.
Powell said the United States will deliver $166 million in
foreign assistance to Georgia this fiscal year.
Regaining control of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and a third
troublesome region, Ajaria, are central to the ambitions of
Saakashvili and many of his countrymen. Georgian soldiers
in fatigues marched down Rustaveli, the central avenue,
before the inauguration, chanting "Abkhazia is ours!"
"If Georgia does not achieve territorial integrity in the
future, nothing can change," said the Rev. John
Givishvili-Amilakhvari, as he stood outside his
12th-century church. The United States and Russia must
help, he said, but "even for the United States, it is hard
to find solutions for Georgia's integrity."
POWELL, VISITING RUSSIA, OUTLINES U.S. CONCERNS
Reuters, 26 Jan 04
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Secretary of State Colin Powell said
Monday he was worried about Russia's democracy, in
unusually blunt comments that underscored widespread
concerns the Kremlin is turning increasingly autocratic.
In a front-page article published in major Russian daily
Izvestia, he said Russian politics were not sufficiently
subject to the rule of law and made clear there were limits
to the U.S.-Russian relationship without shared values.
While couched in diplomatic terms, Powell's comments were
unusually direct from a U.S. administration that has worked
closely with Moscow in the U.S.-led war on terrorism and
has cooperated on regional issues from North Korea to Iran.
He also challenged Russia's policy in Chechnya and --
without citing any countries by name -- its recently
assertive dealings toward nations like Georgia, Moldova and
Ukraine.
``Certain developments in Russian politics and foreign
policy in recent months have given us pause,'' he wrote at
the start of a two-day visit to Moscow for talks with
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Igor
Ivanov.
Washington has been at pains to promote relations with
Putin's Russia even in the face of the Kremlin refusal to
back its invasion of Iraq and fears that its commitment to
a market economy and democracy may be stumbling.
Later Powell, who held talks with Putin, insisted his
article was not an attempt to meddle in domestic affairs.
``As far as I am concerned, it wasn't in any way an attempt
on my part to interfere in (the) internal dynamics of
Russian political life. It was one friend speaking to
another,'' Powell told a joint news conference with Ivanov.
The Russian foreign minister was equally keen to show no
offence was taken, hoping that any doubts had been
dispelled.
``Our exchanges were full of good will. Even the most
difficult issues were discussed in a constructive
atmosphere of openness,'' he said.
Relations between President Bush and Putin have warmed by
the year, but in recent months there have been widespread
fears the Kremlin is turning more authoritarian.
``Russia's democratic system seems not yet to have found
the essential balance among the executive, legislative and
judicial branches of government,'' Powell wrote.
``Political power is not yet fully tethered to law.''
PUTIN READIES FOR RE-ELECTION
Powell's concerns come as Putin prepares for almost certain
election to a second four-year term in March, his opponents
either unwilling to challenge him directly or unable to
muster enough support to pose any real threat.
Putin's increasing grip on power is seen by some as being
at the expense of democracy and a more transparent economy.
Powell made clear he was worried about Moscow's assertive
dealings with its neighbors, which include a territorial
dispute with Ukraine over part of the Sea of Azov and the
continued presence of Russian troops in Moldova and
Georgia.
``Certain aspects of internal Russian policy in Chechnya,
and toward neighbors that emerged from the former Soviet
Union, have concerned us,'' he wrote.
SERBIAN PARTIES REMAIN SPLIT ON COALITION PLANS
Reuters, 26 Jan 04
BELGRADE (Reuters) - Nearly a month after a general
election, Serbian reformist parties remained split over how
to form a new government, fueling expectations that fresh
polls may have to be called to break the political
deadlock.
The major force in the outgoing Serbian government, the
center-left Democratic Party (DS), demanded it be part of
any new cabinet, along with other three pro-democracy
groups comprising conservatives, liberals and royalists.
But the conservatives of ex-Yugoslav President Vojislav
Kostunica insisted they wanted to form a minority
government without the DS, while relying on its support in
parliament, or a cabinet made up of every party represented
in the assembly.
The West is anxious to see the democratic camp close ranks
to prevent ultra-nationalist Radicals, who came first in
the December 28 election, from taking power after the
collapse of the reformist bloc that ousted autocrat
Slobodan Milosevic.
``The DS is ready to contribute fully to further reforms by
taking part in the government and parliament of Serbia...
together with other parties of the democratic bloc,'' the
party executive said in a statement after a closed meeting
Sunday.
With the Radicals short of an absolute majority, the onus
has been on Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) to
take the lead in coalition-building as it came first among
the parties viewed as generally backing pro-Western reform.
But Kostunica has made clear he does not want the DS, his
arch-rival in the reformist camp, inside the cabinet.
``If our proposals are unacceptable, then let those who
wish to form a majority coalition comprising of four groups
try to form such a government,'' he told Belgrade's BK
Television on Sunday.
A minority government would be backed by 109 deputies in
the 250-seat parliament. To be sure of passing legislation,
it would need the support of 126 deputies. The DS's 37
members of parliament would give it a comfortable majority.
ELECTION TALK
Members of several key parties have raised the prospect in
recent days of fresh elections to break the deadlock and
some analysts believe this scenario is growing increasingly
likely.
``A new vote is inevitable, which is not necessarily bad
for Serbia. Parties will form pre-election coalitions,
wasting no time seeking alliances after the ballot,'' an
analyst who did not want to be named told Reuters.
A member of the Democratic Party's main board said new
elections looked likely to be held some time in May.
``The DSS will drag its feet for a month and then admit
that coalition building efforts failed and that new
elections must be held,'' said the source, who also asked
not to be named.
Both agreed the first session of parliament Tuesday,
expected to include a vote for a new assembly speaker,
would show how able the rival parties are to reach
compromises.
JAPAN ORDERS GROUND TROOPS TO IRAQ
AP, 26 Jan 04
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's defense chief issued a dispatch order
Monday for the bulk of the ground troops Japan is sending
to Iraq, moving ahead with the humanitarian mission despite
concerns about the soldiers' safety.
Defense Agency Director Shigeru Ishiba announced the order
after the ruling Liberal Democrats won backing from
coalition partner the New Komeito Party, which had
expressed reservations about the deployment.
Ishiba issued the directive at the Defense Agency
headquarters, a defense agency spokesman said on condition
of anonymity.
Japan's Self-Defense Forces have already sent an advance
team of soldiers to Samawah in southern Iraq, but Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi's government wanted an
additional show of support before deploying the bulk of the
550 ground troops planned for the mission.
The steps are part of a total deployment of some 1,000
military personnel to Iraq and neighboring countries,
marking the first time that Japanese troops have been sent
to a combat zone since World War II. The soldiers will
purify water and perform other non-combat tasks.
Air force pilots and other personnel are also in Kuwait to
ferry supplies to the Iraq contingent, and an additional
group was scheduled to leave Japan on Monday.
The support of the New Komeito Party was backed in a
meeting of rank-and-file members in the morning, and party
leader Takenori Kanzaki endorsed it in later talks with
Koizumi. The New Komeito is allied with Koizumi's ruling
Liberal Democrats.
The moves come despite strong reservations about the
mission in Japan. Concerns about security were heightened
on Monday, when the government said a trailer carrying a
prefabricated housing unit for Japanese ground forces was
attacked west of Baghdad.
The Jordanian driver of the trailer was killed, the Defense
Agency said. Officials, however, doubted that the attack
targeted Japan, since there was no sign connecting the
vehicle to Japan and no Japanese personnel were in the area
at the time of the assault.
Also Monday, a poll published in the national Mainichi
newspaper showed respondents split on the deployment, with
47 percent supporting it and 47 percent opposing it. The
poll, which surveyed 1,023 people by telephone on Saturday
and Sunday, however, showed opposition to the plan dropped
from 54 percent in December. The poll included no margin of
error, Mainichi said.
PENTAGON REMAINS COMMITTED TO CURRENT MILITARY END STRENGTH
Defense News, 19 Jan 04, by Vince Crawley
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his advisers
continue to hold firm on their insistence that the armed
forces don?t need a permanent increase in troop numbers to
win the war on terrorism.
At the same time, more than a month after Saddam Hussein?s
capture, hostile-fire deaths of Americans steadily
continued in Iraq, even as top leaders said they?re hopeful
the overall numbers of attacks are declining.
?We cannot tell you right now whether ? the current dip in
the number of total attacks on the coalition is something
that is going to remain or not,? Marine Corps Gen. Peter
Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told
reporters Jan. 13.
Since November, insurgents in Iraq have increasingly
targeted U.S. helicopters, often with deadly results.
?Clearly, the attacks ? on helicopters are of concern to
us,? Pace said.
However, he said, the military is changing its tactics and
defenses to try to prevent further shoot-downs.
?I?m not going to tell you exactly what we?re doing because
we don?t want to tell the enemy what we?re doing,? Pace
said. ?But we are in fact learning from each of their
attacks and modifying the way we do business.?
In a complex and dangerous changeover, about 125,000 troops
who have been deployed to the Iraq theater for a year are
being replaced by more than 110,000 fresh personnel who
will also spend yearlong tours in the war zone. But
Rumsfeld on Jan. 13 said he is resisting calls from some
lawmakers to permanently increase the numbers of U.S.
troops to help ease the deployment burden.
Military officials are uncertain how long the Army and
Marine Corps can sustain a deployment of well over 100,000
combat troops and support personnel.
The Bush administration is preparing to submit its 2005
defense budget proposal to Congress in early February, and
the short- and long-term effects of the Iraq deployment on
the U.S. military are expected to be a major topic of
debate on Capitol Hill as well as in this year?s
presidential election.
As a candidate four years ago, President Bush insisted U.S.
forces were over-deployed. At the time, major global
commitments amounted to fewer than 25,000 troops in the
Balkans and 20,000 enforcing the former Iraq no-fly zones.
Rumsfeld?s long-term plans don?t include a massive presence
in Iraq or anywhere else. ?We just simply do not expect to
have 100,000 to 120,000 troops in a single country
permanently deployed,? he said.
?Understandably, people have called for an increase in the
end strength? of the armed forces beyond the current
authorized manning of 1.38 million people, he said.
?The question is whether, in the Information Age, measuring
end strength is the only ? or even the best ? way to look
at the problem,? he said. ?In the 21st century, what is
critical to success in military conflict is not necessarily
mass as much as capability.?
Already Over Limit
Rumsfeld noted that the services already are about 36,000
people over the military?s collective authorized limit.
Congress allows each service to exceed its authorized end
strength by 2 percent at any given time.
?That?s a considerable increase,? he said.
At the same time, more than 195,000 Guard and reserve
personnel are mobilized on active duty, also increasing the
size of the active armed forces.
Rumsfeld and his staff believe that the scale of the Iraq
mission is a ?spike? in manpower demands, not a permanent
requirement.
?A permanent end-strength increase could prove to be the
slowest and most expensive option for reducing stress on
the force,? he said.
Not only would it take years to recruit and train more
people, he said, but paying for them would force ?cuts
elsewhere in the defense budget ? crowding out funding for
various types of transformational capabilities that can
allow us to do more with the forces we currently have.?
Instead, the Pentagon is using other means, such as forcing
the services to cooperate more closely, and increasing the
number of civilians performing tasks that, until now, had
been done by people in uniform.
Arthur Cebrowski, Rumsfeld?s transformation chief, insisted
troops currently in Iraq are not being sacrificed in the
name of modernizing the rest of the force.
?I?m convinced that the president and the secretary of
defense are going to do whatever is necessary to prevail,?
Cebrowski, a retired Navy vice admiral, told Defense News
and Military Times editors and reporters Jan. 12. ?That
automatically means no one is going to be sacrificed
because of some experiment.?
25 U.S. INVESTMENT PROJECTS LAUNCHED AFTER POLISH PLANE
BUY: LOCKHEED MARTIN
AFP, 22 Jan 04
U.S. aircraft manufacturer Lockheed Martin said Jan. 22 it
had launched 25 investment programs under a deal to offset
to the cost to Poland of buying 48 of its F-16 fighter jets
for $3.5 billion.
?Twenty-five projects have been launched,? Philip
Georgariou, the U.S. official responsible for the so-called
?offset? program in Poland, told a news conference,
referring to a list of 44 investment projects planned.
The announcement came days before President Aleksander
Kwasniewski travels to Washington to meet U.S. President
George W. Bush amid Polish grumblings that the billions of
dollars of promised U.S. investments have been slow to
materialize.
At the signature of the sales contract for the F-16 planes
last April, the United States said the investments could
total $12 billion.
Officials declined at the same news conference to give a
value of the investments launched to date.
The planes are needed to bring Poland?s military up to the
standards of NATO, which it joined in 1999.
Lockheed Martin snared the contract in December 2002,
beating bids from British-Swedish consortium BAE
Systems-SAAB with its Jas-39 Gripen and France?s Dassault
Aviation with its Mirage 2000-5.
The deal drew criticism from European Union countries, who
thought a member-in-waiting should have given its business
to an EU company.
Among the projects listed was the launching of production
in Poland of the medium cylinder Opel Astra T-3000 car at
Gliwice, the transfer of technologies to the Polish oil
group Lotos of Gdansk in northern Poland and the setting up
of a series of high-tech laboratories to build aircraft
engines in Warsaw.
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