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Mon, 15 Mar 04
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NE-@latvia-usa.org
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Mar 14, 2004 22:28 PST
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NATO ENLARGEMENT DAILY BRIEF (NEDB)
Monday, 15 March 2004, 01:28 EDT
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* SPAIN'S GOVERNING PARTY IS BEATEN /NYT / Elaine Sciolino
* PUTIN EASILY WINS A SECOND TERM / NYT / Seth Mydans
* POLAND TO START REDUCING PRESENCE IN IRAQ AS LOCAL ARMY
GROWS / AFP
* BELGIUM OFFERS TO DOUBLE TROOPS FOR NATO'S AFGHAN MISSION
/ BBC Monitoring / De Standaard
* STRUCK SAYS GERMANY COMMITTED TO FOREIGN MISSIONS / AFP
* DENMARK REFORMS ARMY, DISMANTLES MISSILE SYSTEMS / AFP
* FINNISH FORMIN WANTS DISARMAMENT CLAUSE IN EU
CONSTITUTION / AFP
* EUROPE TAKES ANOTHER LOOK AT SECURITY / AP
* EUROPE KNOWS FEAR, BUT THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT / NYT /
Alan Riding
---------------------------------------------
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FOLLOWING ATTACKS, SPAIN'S GOVERNING PARTY IS BEATEN
New York Times, 14 Mar 04, by Elaine Sciolino
MADRID, March 14 ? Spain's opposition Socialists swept to
an upset victory in general elections on Sunday, ousting
the center-right party of Prime Minister José María Aznar
in a groundswell of voter anger and grief over his handling
of terrorist bombings in Madrid last week.
Those bombings, the deadliest terror attack in Europe since
World War II, turned on its head what had just a few days
ago been a predictable victory by Mr. Aznar's Popular
Party. Some voters apparently believed that Al Qaeda had
plotted the attacks to punish Mr. Aznar for supporting the
war, which Spaniards overwhelmingly opposed.
With each new bit of information about the investigation
into the attack came accusations that Mr. Aznar's party may
have tried to suppress evidence of possible Qaeda
involvement by assuming that Basque separatists were
responsible.
New connections between Al Qaeda and a Moroccan suspect in
the attacks emerged Sunday. The suspect, one of five men
held by the police, had been linked more than two years ago
to a suspected cell of Al Qaeda that operated in Spain,
according to documents and government officials. No
definitive conclusion has been made about responsibility
for the attack. [Page A12.]
The Socialist victory was seen as a repudiation of Mr.
Aznar, whose party has been in office for eight years, and
his close bonds with President Bush. It also posed a new
problem for the American-led occupation force in Iraq,
where Spain has 1,300 troops, because the Socialists have
said they will withdraw them in the absence of a clear
United Nations mandate.
Rage at the government overshadowed Election Day.
Protesters shouted "Liar!" and "Get our troops out of
Iraq!" at the Popular Party candidate Mariano Rajoy, the
48-year-old lawyer who had been expected to be Mr. Aznar's
successor, as he voted at a Madrid polling station.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the 43-year-old lawyer who
will become prime minister, accepted victory at his party's
campaign headquarters by asking for a moment of silence for
the bombing victims. [Page A12.]
He called for "restrained euphoria" in light of the
bombings, which killed 200 people and wounded 1,500 on four
commuter trains in Madrid on Thursday.
"Terror should know that it has all of us in front of it
and we will conquer it," he said. "I will lead a quiet
change. I will govern for all in unity. And power will not
change me, I promise you that."
In his speech conceding defeat, Mr. Rajoy praised Mr.
Zapatero as a "worthy opponent" and pledged that the
Popular Party would be "a loyal opposition always serving
the interests of Spain."
But Mr. Rajoy noted that the election had been "inexorably
marked by the atrocious attack" of terrorism. Mr. Aznar,
who had hand-picked Mr. Rajoy as his successor, stood
solemnly at his side.
The arrest of three Moroccans and two Indians and an
official announcement, just hours before the polls opened,
of a videotape in which a man claimed that Al Qaeda had
carried out the bombings prompted accusations that the
government was lying when it claimed that the violent
Basque separatist movement ETA was most likely responsible.
In November, Mr. Zapatero called for the withdrawal of
Spanish troops from Iraq after the death of seven Spanish
secret service agents in an ambush. More recently, he
softened his position, saying that if he won the election,
he would withdraw the troops at the end of June unless a
United Nations-led force took charge.
He also said during the campaign that Mr. Aznar's
government had slavishly followed the United States,
deepened European divisions over the war and damaged
Spain's relationship with France and Germany.
The governing party "has gambled everything on its blind
support for the United States, or rather the Bush
administration, at the price of weakening the bond between
Spain and Europe," he said in January.
According to official election figures, the Socialists won
43 percent of the vote and 164 seats in the 350-member
Chamber of Deputies; the Popular Party won 38 percent of
the vote and 148 seats.
Both the Popular Party and the biggest left-wing party,
United Left, lost support to the Socialists. In 2000, the
Popular Party won 183 seats, compared with 125 for the
Socialists.
The Socialists were short of the 176 seats to have a
majority necessary to form a government, which means it
must create a coalition with another party or parties.
Mr. Aznar will remain the head of government until a new
government is formed, which, under complicated electoral
rules and the Constitution, could take about three months.
The turnout was higher than expected. More than 77 percent
of the country's 35 million eligible voters cast ballots,
compared with 55 percent four years ago. In Madrid, the
figure was 80 percent.
In a television appearance on Saturday night, Mr. Rajoy
alienated some voters when he called spontaneous
antigovernment rallies that brought thousands of people to
the streets of Madrid "serious antidemocratic events that
never before happened in the history of our democracy." He
added, "Their aim is to influence and pressure the will of
voters throughout the day of reflection."
At a polling station in Cozlada, a tight-knit working-class
suburb east of Madrid where all four of the attacked trains
had passed, there seemed not to be one person who did not
know someone who had died.
"Our prime minister has gotten us into a terrible,
completely wrong war," Vanessa Bellón, a 23-year-old
preschool teacher with a piercing near her lower lip, said
as she voted there for the United Left Party. "And because
of it, I spent yesterday and today going to funerals. I am
thinking of a 3-year-old child at my school who no longer
has a mother."
That anger was echoed in the trendy Calle Fuencarral
neighborhood of central Madrid. "We've enough of this
government," said Nayra Delgado, a 31-year-old documentary
filmmaker who voted for the Socialists. "It's too much.
They think they are kings in this country."
At El Pozo train station, where one of the terrorist
attacks occurred, the walls were covered with graffiti that
read, "Aznar Killer," and "No to Terrorism." A sea of red
candles and bouquets of flowers were haphazardly arranged
in tribute to the victims. Just across the street, the
polling station was set up in a school, some of whose
students had lost parents in the attacks.
"I certainly did not vote for the Popular Party," said a
79-year-old retired carpenter who identified himself only
as Julián. "My daughter's hand was cut off, and she almost
lost a part of her leg. Aznar should come here to see that,
to see these people. But he did nothing for us. He did
nothing for the poor. He is one who brought us to war. I
went through the civil war, and the postwar. But this is
worse."
A 26-year-old window frame maker, who identified himself
only as David, said he had changed his vote from Popular
Party to Socialist because of the bombings and the war in
Iraq. "Maybe the Socialists will get our troops out of
Iraq, and Al Qaeda will forget about Spain, so we will be
less frightened," he said. "A bit of us died in the train."
Addressing both Mr. Aznar and Mr. Rajoy, he said, "I tell
them, come to our neighborhoods, we will tell you some
things about life, about these poor people who died."
In conservative pockets of the country, people argued that
stability, not change, was needed at this time of crisis.
In the 12th-century, walled, hilltop city of Ávila, the
hometown of St. Teresa, voters said they had cast their
ballots as they always did ? for the Popular Party.
Ávila is part of a conservative Catholic region, where
people call the terrorist bombings a sin and call for swift
vengeance. Here, the terrorist attacks have caused people
to dig their conservative roots even deeper.
"I feel rage and impotence at the attacks," said Pedro
García, a 57-year-old civil servant. "But it's better to
follow the same political line. You can't have people
fleeing in all directions. It shows immaturity."
The election of the prime minister involved a complicated
process in which voters did not vote for one candidate but
for one party list of candidates for deputies in
Parliament.
Voters had the choice of 28 party lists, including
mainstream parties like the Popular and Socialist parties
and tiny ones like the leftist Communist Party of the
Peoples of Spain and the rightist Falange, which opposes
immigration and supports the memory of the late dictator
Franco.
The Party for Romantic Mutual Support and the Party of
Retired Self-Employed and Widows were among the others on
the ballot.
There was little chance of secret ballots; lists were laid
out on open tables in polling stations.
Voters also cast their ballots for a maximum of three
candidates for the Senate, a body that wields little power.
Hélène Fouquet and Dale Fuchs contributed reporting for
this article.
AS EXPECTED, PUTIN EASILY WINS A SECOND TERM
New York Times, 14 Mar 04, by Seth Mydans
MOSCOW, March 14 ? President Vladimir V. Putin cruised to a
second term on Sunday in an election that had never been in
doubt and that consolidated his centralized control of
power in Russia.
Mr. Putin, 51, had already taken command of Parliament in
an election in December and marginalized his opponents by
limiting press access and harassing their campaigns. Last
week, he effectively began his second term by appointing a
new cabinet.
With nearly 90 percent of the ballots counted, Mr. Putin
had received more than 70 percent of the vote. A candidate
representing the Communist Party, Nikolai M. Kharitonov,
was projected to win about 15 percent, an unexpectedly high
showing that indicated that the party retains some of its
populist base.
Four other challengers did not rise above single digits.
"I promise that the democratic accomplishments of our
people will be unconditionally defended and guaranteed,"
Mr. Putin said. "We shall strengthen the multiparty system.
We shall strengthen civil society and do everything to
uphold media freedom."
He pledged economic growth and social stability at home and
flexibility abroad. "We will not in any way resort to
aggressive measures or enter into confrontations," he said.
Rights groups and some political commentators said this
election signaled the end of Russia's post-Soviet
experiment with democracy. Political opposition has been
effectively eliminated, and it is assumed that Mr. Putin
will select his successor in 2008 when he reaches the
mandatory two-term limit.
The election amounts to "the formalization of the
post-Communist system," wrote Lilia Shevtsova, a senior
associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, in a commentary in The Moscow Times. "From now on,
it will not be possible to alter the rules of the game,
create a party bottom-up, win an election without approval
from the authorities or force one's way to the top
independently."
Rather than a genuinely competitive election, this was in
effect a vote of confidence on Mr. Putin's rule. Those who
backed him generally said they were voting for what they
saw as the stability of a strong central government.
The years since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 have
been political and economically chaotic for Russians. Many
seemed to be hoping for breathing space.
Some people stayed away from the polls, however, either
because of apathy or as a protest against what they said
was overbearing government manipulation.
In Washington, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell urged Mr.
Putin to "do a better job" of making democracy work.
"Russians have to understand that to have full democracy of
the kind that the international community will recognize,
you've got to let candidates have all access to the media
that the president has," Mr. Powell told "Fox News Sunday."
On the ABC News program "This Week" he said, "We are
concerned about a level of authoritarianism creeping back
in the society."
The national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, speaking
on the NBC News program "Meet the Press," also criticized
limitations on opposition campaigning.
Mr. Putin responded by saying that constructive criticism
was welcome but that he believed that those remarks were
"dictated by the internal political situation" in the
United States.
"No one has a right to think that if they criticize others,
they cannot be criticized themselves," he said, adding,
"Nearly four years ago we watched in bewilderment how the
United States electoral system suffered glitches."
Aleksandr N. Yakovlev, who was considered the "godfather of
glasnost" under the last Soviet president, Mikhail S.
Gorbachev, called the election a meaningless formality.
"The population has been manipulated and they know it," he
said in a telephone interview from the Czech Republic.
Many of those who voted did not show much enthusiasm.
"I voted for Putin because I don't know any of the others,"
said Vasily Chernolutsky, 20, a student. "The main thing is
for things not to get worse. If they get better, that would
be great."
Vyacheslav Sokolov, 63, a retired television cameraman,
said: "I voted for Putin for one simple reason: Give the
guy a chance to do his work. Let's see what he can do. If
we put in someone new, we'll have to start from the
beginning all over again."
Those who said they were not voting generally expressed
stronger feelings than those who were.
"What's the point?" said Mikhail I. Krendeshev, 29, a
manager in a private company. "The system has deprived us
of any choice. My refusal to vote is not even a protest.
It's just deep disillusionment in the way our country is
heading and disillusionment after the collapse of the
democratic forces."
The only suspense on Election Day was over whether the
turnout would reach the 50 percent needed for a valid vote.
The government mounted an aggressive get-out-the-vote
effort, and human rights groups and opposition politicians
said the numbers were in some cases artificially inflated
to reach that threshold.
Four years ago, Mr. Putin won the presidency as the
anointed successor of Boris N. Yeltsin at a time of
disarray and a weakened Kremlin.
Since then Mr. Putin has asserted his control by limiting
press freedoms, neutralizing political opposition and
demonstrating his readiness to exercise power by arresting
the nation's richest man, the oil baron Mikhail B.
Khodorkovsky.
Mr. Putin has worked to put in place a structure known here
as a "power vertical," a top-down system that relies on the
control of powerful ministers and a rigid bureaucracy.
Critics warn that a lack of checks and balances could make
this system inflexible and repressive.
Irina M. Khakamada, one of Mr. Putin's five opponents and
the only liberal candidate in the race, characterized Mr.
Putin's government as ruling by fear, and an atmosphere of
insecurity has begun to creep back into Russian life. Mr.
Putin, who once headed the post-Communist successor to the
K.G.B., has filled much of his government with former
members of the security services.
One 43-year-old marketing executive angrily said he would
not vote, saying: "I don't want to be part of this farce.
For 70 years these people have been oppressed by the K.G.B.
and they vote again for the K.G.B."
POLAND TO START REDUCING PRESENCE IN IRAQ AS LOCAL ARMY
GAINS STRENGTH
AFP, 12 Mar 04
Poland will start to reduce its military presence in Iraq
this year as it trains several thousand Iraqi soldiers and
police to help keep the peace, a senior defense official
said March 10.
Highlighting the tough task of maintaining order in central
Iraq, where some 2,500 Polish troops are based, three
civilians, including two U.S. nationals, were shot dead on
Tuesday evening while driving towards the nearby the town
of Hilla, 100 kilometres (60 miles) southwest of Baghdad.
?I would like to reduce our numbers so we have less troops
here next year,? said Poland?s Deputy Defense Minister
Janusz Zemke.
?It will be done in stages as the situation stabilizes and
the Iraqi forces become stronger,? he told AFP, while on a
tour of southern and central Iraq, where Poland heads a
multinational division of some 9,000 soldiers.
A Polish army spokesman said the plan was to reduce
Poland?s military presence in Iraq by 10 percent by next
January and continue cutting numbers.
But Warsaw remains committed to its mission in the country
and will keep soldiers on the ground until the situation
stabilizes, the spokesman said.
The Polish contingent is training 4,500 Iraqi soldiers and
1,600 Iraqi policemen, according to Zemke. The training
program started two months ago and is due to finish in
August.
?When the new Iraqi authority takes back sovereignty (on
June 30) they will need special skills and we want to help
them,? the deputy minister said. Poland is also spending
some $40 million on humanitarian works such as rebuilding
schools and hospitals in the area.
?I opened a medical center for children and also a school
with Internet equipment,? said Zemke, who has been in Iraq
since March 7.
Poland?s U.S.-supported foray into Iraq cost Polish
taxpayers $45 million last year and was expected to set
them back $80 million in 2004, said the defense official.
The Polish-led base has been the target of deadly
insurgency attacks in recent months, but Zemke said the
troops were aware of the dangers they faced when they came
on the mission.
?We have not suffered big losses so far, with just two
soldiers killed and several wounded,? he added.
BELGIUM OFFERS TO DOUBLE TROOPS FOR NATO'S AFGHAN MISSION
BBC Monitoring / De Standaard, 11 Mar 04
Belgium is going to propose to NATO today to double its
contribution to the international ISAF International
Security Assistance Force peace mission in Afghanistan.
This means that 600 Belgians would be involved in the
mission. Defence Minister Andre Flahaut announced this on
Wednesday 10 March . Today a "Force Generation Conference"
will be held at NATO's headquarters in Casteau, near the
city of Mons, with a view to gradually stepping up ISAF
operations outside Kabul. Our country will suggest
supplying two paratrooper companies, i.e., 300 additional
troops. The Belgian army has currently deployed more than
250 troops in Afghanistan, who are responsible for the
protection and operation of the international airport at
Kabul.
STRUCK SAYS GERMAN ARMY COMMITTED TO FOREIGN MISSIONS
AFP, 12 Mar 04
Defense Minister Peter Struck insisted March 11 that
Germany was committed to sending troops on foreign
peacekeeping roles and anti-terror missions, as he defended
sweeping cost-cutting army reforms.
?We must face up to threats where they arise,? he told the
Bundestag lower house of parliament in a keynote speech.
Germany ?will remain one of the biggest troop contributors
to international peacekeeping missions in the foreseeable
future.?
Reiterating one of the main grounds for the reforms, he
said the military, traditionally based on Cold War-era
thinking, needed restructuring to make it better able to
respond to modern threats such as terrorism.
At the heart of the reforms is a planned reduction of
35,000 troops in army endstrength ? to 250,000 by 2010, but
with a core element capable of rapid deployment abroad.
?The army has become an important ambassador for Germany,?
Struck went on, pointing to its heavy commitments in
Afghanistan and the Balkans. ?The army is Germany?s biggest
peace movement.?
The length of foreign deployments, however, would be
reduced from six months to four months except in special
circumstances, he added.
Earlier this year, Struck announced a sweeping reform of
the armed forces that foresees 26 billion euros ($32
billion) in military spending cuts in the coming years.
German defense spending this year is a little more than 24
billion euros, corresponding to 1.4 percent of gross
domestic product ? a figure the United States has
complained is too low.
DENMARK REFORMS ARMY, DISMANTLES MISSILE SYSTEMS
AFP, 12 Mar 04
Denmark intends to dismantle its ?DeHawk? air defense
missile system and its multiple rocket launch system (MLRS)
as part of an ongoing project to reform its military,
Defense Minister Svend Aage Jensby said March 11.
The reform, which Jensby described as ?the most significant
since the Second World War?, is meant to concentrate the
country?s military resources around international
operations rather than on territorial defense.
?NATO is in the midst of evaluating the future of this kind
of air-defense system, and it would take major investment
to maintain the standard of the DeHawk missiles,? Jensby
said in a debate on Danish TV2, where he attempted to
justify Denmark?s decision to abandon the missile system.
?The Cold War is over, and ... there is no longer a threat
of conventional war against the borders? of our country,?
he said.
This also explains Denmark?s decision to dismantle the MLRS
system, he said, insisting that surface-to-surface missiles
are no longer needed ?because there is no longer a threat
of invaders... along the Danish coasts.?
The two missile systems cost Danish taxpayers about two
billion kroner ($329 million, 268 million euros), according
to media reports.
The reformed military intends to invest in a number of
other areas. It will, for instance spend 2.9 billion kroner
annually, or 15 percent of its 19.1 billion kroner budget,
on new equipment and material.
It will also continue to participate in the U.S.-led next
generation Joint Strike Fighter program, as it moves
towards replacing its fleet of F-16, and will put aside
nearly four billion kroner towards the construction of
three new Viking submarines, Jensby said.
?It?s wrong to believe that these submarines are meant to
sink enemy ships. They will above all be used for
information-gathering operations,? Jensby said, pointing
out that ?the United States was very satisfied with the use
of one of our submarines during the war in Iraq, due to its
operational capabilities very close to the coast.?
FINNISH FOREIGN MINISTER WANTS DISARMAMENT CLAUSE IN EU
CONSTITUTION
AFP, 11 Mar 04
Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja would have liked to
have a disarmament clause in the European Union?s upcoming
constitution, he wrote in a book published March 11 and
quoted by Finnish news agency FNB.
In the book ?Finland?s Foreign and Security Policy Anno
2004?, Tuomioja wrote that the new EU treaty should not
have a clause in which the bloc?s members bind themselves
to armament in order to meet their obligations under the
Union?s future common defense and security policy.
?The EU?s constitution would then be the only such document
in the world that carries the name constitution and where
one specifically strives for armament,? Tuomioja, a Social
Democrat, noted in the book.
If such an entry were included however, the treaty would be
embarrassingly at odds with the United Nations Charter,
which aims for universal disarmament, Tuomioja noted,
adding that this target should instead be included in the
EU?s new ruling document as well.
Tuomioja wrote the book in response to commentators and
opposition politicians? charges that the Finnish government
had lost its aim in its foreign policy, FNB cited him as
saying.
Ireland, which currently holds the EU?s six-month rotating
presidency, is under pressure to present a final version of
the constitution before the bloc expands to 25 members on
May 1.
EUROPE TAKES ANOTHER LOOK AT SECURITY
AP, 14 Mar 04
LONDON (AP) -- Shaken by train bombings in Madrid and
fearful they may have been the work of a Muslim terror
group, some European countries are re-examining security
and intelligence efforts, officials said Sunday.
Germany said Europe must rethink its approach to security,
British officials revealed they had placed anti-terror
officers on the London Underground and Poland worried that
its strong support of America could make it the next
target.
Many European nations have lived with the threat of
homegrown terrorism for decades -- Algerian extremists in
France, Basque separatists in Spain, Irish Republican Army
bombers in Britain.
But none has recently seen violence on the scale of the
bombings that killed 200 in Madrid last week, and growing
fears that al-Qaida or a similar Muslim extremist group may
have been involved raised the chilling possibility that
they could strike again.
The attack, initially blamed on the Basque separatist group
ETA, was Europe's deadliest since the 1988 bombing of a Pan
Am jetliner over Lockerbie, Scotland, killed 270 people.
German Interior Minister Otto Schily said that if the
Madrid attack were the work of Islamic terrorists, the link
would pose a ``new quality of threat for all of Europe,''
adding that the continent must rethink its security
measures.
Schily spoke after an emergency meeting of German security
officials. He urged Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who
holds the European Union presidency, to convene a meeting
of member countries' security officials as soon as
possible.
In Britain, a close U.S. ally that has been on a heightened
alert since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, the British
Transport Police announced Sunday that they had begun
deploying undercover counterterrorism officers on the
London subway system earlier this year.
Simon Lubin, a spokesman for the transport police, said the
move was not a response to the Madrid bombings and that
there was no specific threat against the Underground. He
declined to specify when the patrols began and said the
anti-terrorism officers were not on all trains but were
sent to key locations in the system as needed.
Police also plan a new poster campaign this week urging
subway passengers to be vigilant and report suspicious
bags.
While Britons spent years worrying about IRA attacks on
trains, the fear of terrorism is relatively new in Poland,
where Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, the nation's intelligence
chief, told state Radio 3 that the country could be in
Islamic terrorists' sights.
``We cannot escape the hypothesis that we are a target,''
Siemiatkowski said.
Poland was one of the staunchest supporters of the Iraq war
and commands 10,000 international peacekeepers in the
country. Last year, Poland and Spain, also a U.S. ally in
Iraq, were named as possible targets on a taped message
attributed to al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
Poland's lack of experience in dealing with terrorists
could make it an easy place for them to hit, Siemiatkowski
said.
``We have untested structures and zero experience in
reacting to this kind of event,'' he said.
Italy said the bombings showed the need to improve
international cooperation in intelligence-gathering and
announced it was sending a team of police and security
officials to Spain to collaborate on the investigation.
The Interior Ministry said security in Italy appeared
adequate but international collaboration in
intelligence-gathering and police investigations needed to
be ``reinforced.''
In France, Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin visited a
train station to inspect newly tightened security measures
and urged French people to watch for suspicious behavior.
France has boosted the number of soldiers at airports,
train stations and other sites considered sensitive since
the Madrid bombings.
Even before the attacks, EU nations had been discussing
proposals to improve a joint anti-terrorism program drawn
up after Sept. 11.
One working paper prepared by the office of Javier Solana,
the EU's foreign and security policy representative,
highlights a number of shortfalls, ranging from extradition
procedures to preparations for dealing with chemical
weapons attacks.
EUROPE KNOWS FEAR, BUT THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT
New York Times, 14 Mar 04, by Alan Riding
AFTER the murderous bombings in Madrid on Thursday, Spanish
newspapers immediately compared 11-M -- March 11 -- to
9/11. But there was a flaw in the analogy. On Sept. 11,
2001, the United States was caught off guard. In contrast,
Spain and several other European countries have experienced
terrorism for more than three decades. And lately they had
been bracing for a big terrorist action somewhere in the
region.
Despite this, many Europeans, although not all governments,
have so far resisted the American call for an all-out "war
on terrorism." To some, that looks like the overreaction of
a nation unaccustomed to terrorism on its own territory.
For the critics, the slogan has been misused -- to alienate
the Islamic world, to undermine civil liberties, to justify
invading Iraq and to promote President Bush's re-election
campaign.
Now, after the murder of close to 200 people and the
injuring of 1,400 more in Madrid's train bombings, fresh
questions are being asked: Will European attitudes toward
terrorism harden? Will Europe recognize that its cities are
as vulnerable as New York and Washington were on 9/11 and
Madrid was on 11-M? Will it too start reorganizing its
security services to confront a new enlarged threat?
The quick answer, many European security experts say, is
"perhaps," with the final response dependent on who is
blamed for the bombings: the Basque separatist group known
as ETA, which has killed more than 850 people in the past
35 years and on Friday was the Spanish government's
principal suspect in the case, or Al Qaeda or another
external terrorist group, which may have made Spain a
target for its support of the American-led war in Iraq.
"If this is shown to be an ETA bombing, the response will
be, 'This is dreadful, worse than anything we have seen, we
have to do what we can to help, but it is not new,"' said
Francois Heisbourg, director of the Foundation for Security
Research, based in Paris. "If it emerges that this is Al
Qaeda or a combination of Al Qaeda and ETA, then I think we
will have crossed a threshold in the level and intensity of
terrorism."
In that sense, then, Europe would prefer homegrown
terrorism. Since the 1970's, Germany and Greece have known
leftist terrorism, while Italy has suffered both leftist
and rightist violence: in 1980, Italian neo-Fascists killed
84 people and wounded 200 in a bombing in Bologna. Until
the peace agreement in Northern Ireland six years ago, the
Irish Republican Army also sponsored separatist violence in
Britain, while France still struggles against nationalist
extremism in Corsica.
Because of these European conflicts, plus spillovers of
violence from the Arab world like bombs in the Paris Metro
in the 1990's that were linked to the Algerian civil war,
Europeans grew used to seeing military patrols at airports
and railroad stations and to living with bomb scares or
worse. After 9/11, they had reason to fear terrorism of a
different magnitude, and that is the specter now being
contemplated in Madrid.
In the first days after the bombings in Spain, one senior
German official, who asked not to be named, said the
initial evidence all pointed to ETA. Still, he noted that
news reports raising the possibility of a Qaeda role would
be well received in the Arab world. "Afterward, when it is
shown to be ETA, they can say, 'We know the truth, our
brothers were successful but no one is willing to give them
credit,"' he suggested.
Martin Ortega, a fellow at the European Union's Institute
for Security Studies in Paris, offered a different view:
that with general elections taking place in Spain today,
the ruling conservative People's Party had an interest in
blaming ETA. "Undecided voters may think a center-right
government will be tougher on terrorism," he said. "If Al
Qaeda is punishing Spain for Iraq, the opposition Socialist
Party will benefit because it opposed the war." Mr. Ortega,
who is Spanish, added, "In my personal opinion, it's Al
Qaeda."
Other experts were keeping an open mind late last week. "If
ETA has done this, it will be easier to deal with inside
Spanish territory," said Rolf Tophoven, director of the
Institute for Terrorism Research and Security Policy in
Essen, Germany. "If it is Al Qaeda or some spinoff group,
it will represent an attack against democracy and freedom.
It will mean similar terror could happen in any European
city tomorrow or next week."
Of course, even if ETA acted alone last week, the most
frightening aspect of the attack was its scale. And Al
Qaeda could still strike in Europe at any time. Spain had
already been named by Al Qaeda as a potential target
because of its stance on Iraq, where it now has 1,300
troops. Britain expects even more to be a target for a
terrorist attack because of its direct engagement in the
Iraq war, while Italy also supported Washington. Even
France and Germany, which took the lead in opposing the
war, feel vulnerable, having aided in the American-led
effort to dismantle Al Qaeda. And France is facing radical
Muslim threats over its recent ban on head scarves in
public schools.
As a result, security experts say, cooperation between the
European police and intelligence agencies has grown
substantially since Sept. 11, 2001. They said that, despite
Washington's anger over French and German opposition to the
war in Iraq, European and American intelligence groups
continue to work closely. And this has led to the arrest of
numerous Al Qaeda suspects in Britain, France, Germany,
Spain, Portugal and Italy.
"I think that at an intelligence level Europe has made
tremendous progress in degrading the capability of Al Qaeda
in certain key countries," said Magnus Ranstorp of the
Center on Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrews
University in Scotland. "But there is still much to do,
notably on the issue of identity theft. It is still easy to
buy a passport off the street in Europe. The United States
is sealing itself off and the question is whether Europe
should follow."
Most experts here say no. "Every European country has
strengthened its police and judiciary since 9/11," said
Sergio Romano, a former Italian ambassador to Russia and
NATO. "But they cannot go much beyond that. There is a
great deal of resistance in Europe to more radical measures
impinging on individual rights."
Other political variables also affect European attitudes.
Britain was quick to endorse President Bush's war on
terrorism as evidence of its "special relationship" with
the United States. But Britain, like France and Germany, is
also wary of radicalizing Europe's large Muslim populations
by appearing to link them to Islamic terrorism (although
France risked Muslim anger with its decision to ban the
head scarf, in the name of social integration).
Spain, like Britain, embraced the American approach,
principally in order to place its fight against ETA in the
context of a global war on terrorism. France, though, has
played a more crucial tactical role in the Basque conflict,
by clamping down on ETA's traditional use of France's own
Basque region as a logistical rear guard. Several top
leaders of ETA are among 124 suspects or militants
currently in French jails, and until last Thursday, those
arrests, in addition to arrests and weapons seizures in
Spain, had convinced Spanish leaders that ETA had been
weakened.
More than anything, political differences over Iraq have
altered European perceptions of the terrorist threat. "I
think Europeans soured on the 'war on terrorism' because
the United States applied it to the war in Iraq," said Gary
Saymore, director of studies at the London-based
International Institute for Strategic Studies, who served
as a special assistant to President Bill Clinton. "Before
Iraq, I don't think there were major differences in terms
of policy responses."
Yet even if Al Qaeda is ultimately blamed for the Madrid
bombings, few experts believe Europe will respond as the
United States did after 9/11. "Some weeks ago, we discussed
whether Europe would react violently to its own 9/11," Mr.
Ortega said, "and we agreed that instead it would take
measures to increase the safety of citizens, to advance on
homeland security, to improve ties with the Islamic world.
I think that's what we'll see."
On the other hand, if ETA is found responsible, the experts
believe the Madrid bombings should still serve as a
warning. "Among counterterrorism experts watching Al Qaeda
and other Islamic groups," Mr. Ranstorp said, "the question
is not 'if,' but 'when."'
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