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PSU Playbook - Michigan State Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Nov 21, 2003 13:48 PST
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Dear Lion Faithful,
ND: Well, it is amazing to think that this season is
almost over. You wait the whole winter, spring, and
summer to see the Blue and White on the gridiron and
then before you know it, it’s all over. Mark, the
Lions have a tough task this week. The Spartans are
awfully good.
MH: This season did fly by, but maybe that was not
such a bad thing given the results. As for MSU, I
stand by my feeling that they are the most
consistently inconsistent teams year in and year out.
They beat teams they shouldn’t and lose to teams they
shouldn’t. That plays well fro Penn State this year.
Dirty Details:
Who: Penn State (3-8, 1-6) at Michigan State (7-4,
4-3)
When: Saturday, November 22nd at 12:00pm ET and 9:00am
PT
Where: East Lansing, MI in Spartan Stadium (72,027)
TV: National Audience on ESPN with Mark Jones, Bob
Davie (my good buddy), and Holly Rowe
Line: Michigan State favored by 5 points.
Other Big Games to Watch:
ND: No game bigger than the Ohio State and Michigan
game. This single game will decide quite a bit of the
Bowl landscape. I think the difference in this game is
that Michigan’s offense is much more balanced and much
more potent. Both defenses are very good, but Ohio
State has the benefit of some good kickers. In the
end, I think Michigan wins behind the arm of Navarre,
who finally gets the Wolverine faithful off of his
back.
MH: Ohio State-Michigan should be a classic one. The
Wolverines are notorious for ruining great Buckeye
seasons, but Jim Tressel has shown he knows how to
beat UM. The one thing the Luckeyes have on their side
is just that – luck! It baffles me that USC dropped to
allow OSU to dance into the #2 BCS spot.
Offense:
ND: The Lions’ offense was firing on all cylinders
last week. The passing game opened up things for the
running game and this tactic worked like a charm. I
think the same thing needs to happen this week, but
with significant caution. Zack will not have the same
type of time that he has had in the past. The
Defensive Line for MSU is probably the quickest that I
have seen in the Big 10. Taplin and Askew have
combined for 12 sacks this season. These guys are good
and will get after Zack. Brown and Costlow have to get
a hat on these guys. Look for McHugh to stay in and
for Lukac to go in motion to Taplin’s side to provide
maximum protection. Zack will have to use some short
drops and get the ball into the hands of Humphrey,
MRob, and TJ. The Spartan LBs are very good, but the
secondary is very, very sketchy. Heck, if Lee Evans
can torch them for 5 TDs in a single game, then I
think the Lions should be able to take advantage of
them too. In fact, the Spartan pass defense is dead
last in the Big 10 and is one of the worst in the
nation. The Penn State running game is going to start
with MRob, but I think Joe will use Scott a bit more
in this game. As I said, the LBs are good. The guy
that I think is particularly special is Mike Labinjo.
This guy has 80 tackles, 10 TFL, and 5.5 sacks. The
Lions will need to keep this guy out of the backfield
on running plays or they need to use the play action
pass and draw plays to keep him off-balance.
MH: Well some interesting rumors are circulating now.
We typically don’t like to feed the rumors, but they
could play a late-breaking factor in this game, if
true. Word is Maurice Humphrey may have his playing
time impacted against MSU for breaking a team rule.
There has not been confirmation that this is the case,
but if it is true it could be a big loss for PSU’s
offense. Maurice has been the clear go-to receiver for
Zack Mills. Without him the staff will have to look to
passing the ball to the tight end and fullback. Again,
this is only a rumor, but was substantial enough to
possibly play a role. If Maurice does play, he should
get a lot of passes. MSU’s secondary is their
Achilles’ heel. Lee Evans had a field day last week.
We just need a receiver to step up and make plays. I
don’t expect Penn State to simply abandon the run
though. The Spartans are fast on the defensive line,
but they do tend to allow for running games to
develop. PSU has to show some success on the ground to
set up the play action pass. I expect that Sean McHugh
(FB) and Michael Robinson (RB) will be able to move
the ball in the ground game. Like always though, the
key is the offensive line. The line was successful
last week, but against a weak defensive line. Costlow
is the key, but I have a feeling Taplin will key up on
him and get early penetration on Zack. Zack has to be
alert and ready to roll out. The staff should set up a
‘safety valve’ with Kranchick or Lukac so Zack can
dump the ball into the flat. This has worked well in
the past and would allow them to handle the blitzing
Spartans more effectively.
Defense:
ND: Mark, our boys have their work cut out for them.
This Spartan squad is tough on offense. Jeff Smoker is
arguably the best player in the Big Ten. He has
bounced back this year and has got the Spartans
scoring big points. The Spartans run a wide-open
spread offense and let Smoker pick apart defenses. The
key to stopping Smoker is tight, tight coverage.
Smoker doesn’t get rattled with blitzes and he can
scramble, but when he has struggled is when the
defense drops guys into coverage and is able to
shutdown his options. So, Bradley needs to be smart
and masking with this blitzes or Smoker will make him
PAY! Smoker spreads the ball well, but keep an eye on
two guys that don’t get much press. Those guys are TE
Knott and RB Hayes. Knott is a big but mobile TE that
is particularly dangerous on 3rd and medium. Hayes is
just plain dangerous. He set a Spartan record for most
receptions by a RB. What makes this game tough is that
the Lions can’t play a dime defense, because they need
to keep a LB just in case there is a run, but what if
they send Knott and Hayes out for a pass? A safety on
Knott spells disaster because of his size. Look for
the Lions to play a ton of nickel and use Posluszny
and Toles to cover the Knott and Hayes. I cannot
stress enough the importance for Hali and his friends
to get a good push. Look for the Spartans to use draws
and some power runs with Hayes and a variety of other
backups. But, I think the Spartans are going to be
stubborn. Even though they know that Penn State can’t
stop the run, I have a funny feeling that they are
going to still rely on the pass. If the game gets
tight, they might try the run, but I think they want
the ball in Smoker’s hands and not Hayes’ hands.
MH: The Spartans do like to spread it out with a
wide-open passing attack. Smoker has turned things
around and is finding success. Calling him the best
player in the Big Ten may be a stretch though. Believe
it or not, I think PSU’s defense matches up nicely
against the MSU offense. As you said Nirav, Smoker
hates ‘busy’ coverage in the flat and I see Coach
Bradley using the Wake and Toles to help frustrate
Smoker. Remember Smoker has never beat Penn State and
he has publicly stated he doesn’t want to end his
career like Drew Brees who never got a win against the
Lions. That could play into the Lion’s paws. I so want
the Lions to throw out some corner and zone blitzes.
This will cause Smoker to focus more on the pass rush,
thus delaying his route reads, which will give us more
time for the coverage to develop. The guy who scares
me is Knott. We always struggle with tight end
coverage and Knott is a solid one. I do agree that
Toles and Posluszny will have the tall order of
keeping Knott in check. I tend to agree that MSU wants
to pass early and often. Penn State showed some
success with their run defense last week and that may
have the Spartan coaches thinking pass, pass, pass.
Special Teams:
ND: The Spartans have actually struggled more on punt
returns than the Lions, if you can believe it. But,
the Spartans have a heck of punter in Branden Fields.
David Rayner is also one of the best kickers in the
nation. We need Wake to get back on his launching pad
to knock a couple of kicks down. Look out for DeAndra
Cobb returning kicks. He has 3 TDs this season alone
and leads the Big Ten in returns. Kimball better bomb
his kicks.
MH: You know how I am a big believer in winning the
battle of field position. I think MSU and PSU match up
well, so field position will be key in this one.
Whoever wins the special teams’ battles will likely
win the war. I would be surprised if MSU gets many, if
any, kick off returns from PSU.
Matchup to Kickback and Enjoy:
ND: The Penn State corners have not been tested like
they will this week. I think the matchups of Gardner,
Zemaitis, and Phillips against the MSU WRs is going to
be the difference in this game.
MH: Toles and Posluszny verses Knott is a key battle
that could shift momentum in this game. If they can
take Knott out of it, the Spartan offense will lose an
essential dimension to their game plan. That is a big
‘if’!
Keys to the Game:
ND: The offense cannot stall in this game. Jeff Smoker
is going to score points and the Spartan passing
attack is very dangerous. So, the Lions must have a
balanced attack that produces points or the defense
will get tired very, very quickly trying to keep up
with the Spartans.
MH: Special teams. Who ever wins the kicking and
return battles will likely win this war. Gould and
Kimball have to be on and Calvin Lowry has to put the
dancing shoes away.
Predictions:
ND: I really think the Lions took a big step last
weekend and I think the Spartans are stumbling into
this one and have provided the Lions with the
blueprint on how to win. However, I think in the end,
the Spartans are a better team and will show the
country that the Lions pass defense isn’t as good as
the numbers indicate.
MSU: 31 PSU: 20
MH: I think Penn State’s players have gotten a taste
of victory and more importantly how to win with
effective execution. This will be a dogfight, but I
have a feeling the Lions edge out the Spartans:
PSU: 24 MSU: 17
Until next time,
GO STATE, BEAT SPATANS!!
Mark and Nirav
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