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PSU Playbook - Central Florida Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Sep 15, 2004 18:02 PDT
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Dear Lion Faithful,
ND: Well, PSU sure looked pretty poor on Saturday.
However, if you really think about it, 21 points off
of 5 turnovers and almost 90 yards of penalties. What
is more concerning is that BC has provided a nice
blueprint for teams to use to beat the Lions. Let’s
hope that the coaches are working to eliminate those
vulnerabilities before they square off against UCF
this weekend.
MH: I hope we aren’t reading the 2003 story ‘A Tale of
Two Teams’ again. This game was pitiful on several
fronts, among them blitzing, run defense, run offense
and overall bad decisions in the passing attack.
Having said that, as you so astutely pointed out,
there were some flickers of hope, but the question is,
‘how does PSU react to the Golden Knights?’ UCF is one
of those teams like Southern Miss who scare me. They
are not afraid to play anyone on the road. Notice
Southern Miss just knocked off the Huskers? Oh, but
the way, we have a some great new features on our site
PSUPlaybook.org – PSU Radio from THE LION 90.7,
including the SportsBlitz radio show weekdays at 6:00
pm ET and also PSU football game broadcasts. We also
now feature an on-demand weekly TV show on PSU sports
from PSNtv, check them both out (for FREE) only on
PSUPlaybook.org!
Dirty Details:
Who: University of Central Florida at Penn State
When: Saturday, September 18th at 12:10pm ET and 9:10
am PT
Where: Beaver Stadium
Attendance: 102,000+
Series: Penn State leads 1-0
Line: Penn State favored by 21.5 points
TV: Regional ESPN with Wayne Larrivee, Randy Wright,
and Beth Mowins.
Radio: Penn State Sports Network with Steve Jones and
Jack Ham
Web: http://www.gopsusports.com,
http://psuplaybook.org
Other Big Games this Week:
ND: I think that Florida/Tennessee game is going to be
a good one. I’m not convinced that the Vols belong in
the top-echelon of college football. Florida is not a
very good football team, but they will serve as a
sufficient litmus test for the Coach Fulmer and crew.
If Tennessee doesn’t win by 20 points, you might as
well rule them out to win the SEC.
MH: I also would keep an eye on another SEC matchup as
LSU heads to Auburn. Remember LSU struggled against
Oregon State and Auburn has rolled over the creampuffs
they have faced so far. This game is on Auburn’s turf,
so it could be a big game to define the SEC race. Oh
and keep an eye on Nebraska vs. Pitt. Nebraska lost to
Southern Miss last week, so how the bounce back
against the Panthers will be telling.
Upset Special:
ND: The biggest game this weekend may not even take
place. I think the LSU/Auburn game is going to be
great. But, if Ivan decides to tailgate, it might get
canceled. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that all are
left untouched and unharmed. If that is the case and
this game is played, I think LSU is going to get beat
by a very good Auburn team. The Cadillac – Carnell
Williams – will get into the Heisman lane by running
all over the Tigers. And Mark, our upset picks last
week were 3-0 so pick a good one…we have a reputation
to uphold!
MH: Nirav, yes we were an impressive 3-0 in upset
specials last week. Given the way Ohio State has
danced with danger over and over and over again, I
think this week’s game at NC State is a dangerous one.
I have a feeling the Pack may have the gusto to knock
off the Buckeyes and finish the job Marshall failed to
do.
Offense:
ND: Mark, the Lions have exactly what the doctor
ordered this week – a team that is pretty bad on
defense. BC pointed out some issues with the run
blocking and the WRs need another game under their
belt. This is the perfect opportunity to work on that
and some of the details that are necessary to play the
big boys of the Big 10. The Knights are very young
with the exception of the LB positions. The front-line
is pretty averaged size and not very good, which is
the main reason that they are surrendering 232.5 yards
rushing per game. That’s huge. Stanford Ruhle is the
one experience guy at the LB position and he is the
one that leads the team in tackles. I fully expect the
offensive line to dominate these guys and allow room
for Tony Hunt, Zack, and MRob to run the ball. The
team has quite a bit of speed, but they are definitely
weak up the middle. In the passing game, I think the
Lions can have their way as well. The Knights have not
recorded a sack all season and they don’t even have an
INT. The secondary is incredibly young. They have 3
sophomores and 1 freshman. What the Knights lack in
experience, they make up for it in size. This
secondary may be the biggest that the Lions face. The
shortest guy is 5’11” and the rest are either 6’1” or
6’2”. I think this will be a good challenge for
Smolko, Phillips, Smith, and crew. Zack should have
plenty of time and should be able to find receivers
open. Whether he can remain accurate and make the
smart decision is yet to be seen. Zack needs to put
last week behind him and focus on getting this team
prepared for Big 10 play.
MH: Well on offense the Lions had some significant
issues exposed. Let’s start with the offensive line.
What was supposed to be the 'strength of the offense'
certainly did not live up to its billing in the BC
contest. The offensive line was man-handled in the
trenches and was just slow off the snap. They lacked
the 'pop' off the ball we saw against Akron and almost
appeared apathetic and lethargic to the fact that the
BC defensive line was pushing them around. The unit
seemed confused on certain pulls and was not working
together to open up consistent lanes. Given their size
advantage over the knights the PSU OL should have the
advantage in this one – should! On a positive note, as
you said Nirav, the pocket has been as solid as we
have seen in quite a few seasons. Having said that,
the passing game has some issues that need to be
addressed. First, Terrell Golden has the tools to be a
great receiver, former PSU WR Coach Kenny Carter, his
teammates and the staff has all told us he could be a
great WR. He needs to start pulling in balls
consistently. Brendan Perretta is in the same boat.
There are some bright spots with Michael Robinson,
Gerald Smith and how about Ryan Scott? I am baffled
why the seemed to ease off using Scott after his first
collegiate catch was a touchdown! All the receivers
aside the biggest issue I see with the passing game is
with Zack Mills. Know you know I love Zack, but it was
apparent to me against BC that he felt that he had to
get things done all by himself out there. Zack not
only forced passes, but threw up some tosses I would
argue he just is not equipped to make, hence four
interceptions. Zack showed some nice consistency at
times during the game and if he plays his game we have
a greater shot at success. He had the pocket against a
solid defensive front four, so having time should not
be an issue, it all comes down to decision making.
He’ll be facing a big secondary, but one that has been
tormented with injuries and boasts inexperience. Again
the advantage should be on the Lions’ side. Aside from
this, we need to see the innovation and surprise play
we saw against Akron. Coaching needs to use the talent
we have to bring things together.
Defense:
ND: Well, I think I was pretty tough on the Knights
for their ability on defense. Mark, they might be even
worse on offense. Coach O’Leary has not figured out
who is going to be his main QB this season so he is
switching between Moffett and Sumner. Personally, I
like Moffett because of his accuracy and his tendency
to look downfield first. But, they are both very young
QBs. What’s worse is that they have a very young and
inexperienced Offensive Line. This team is only
averaging 264.5 yards of total offense per game. When
they run the ball, they will turn to Alex Haynes, who
is averaging over 90 yards rushing per game but only
at a 3.5yds/rush average. He is rock solid, but is
still somewhat elusive. It’s hard to say that a guy at
225lbs is elusive, but he is only 5’10”. Poz had a
pretty good game against the Eagles and I expect him
to be leading the charge against Haynes. But, what I
really want to see is the front-four of the Lions
making more and more tackles at the line of scrimmage.
They came up big a couple of times against the Eagles,
but they looked pretty silly on other plays. On the
passing front, whoever plays QB for UCF, they will
distribute the ball pretty well. Luther Huggins is the
better WR of the bunch and has made a couple of plays
against Wisky and WVU. Both him and Tavaris Capers are
seniors and are decent players. Their issue is that
they are short. OK, that’s not really nice, but it is
true. When was the last time that you heard of a pair
of starting WRs in Division 1 that were both 5’9”? It
just doesn’t happen anymore. Phillips and Zemaitis
need to play close to the line of scrimmage and get
physical with these smaller guys. Let’s hope that
Bradley allows these talented CB to use their physical
attributes to their advantage. Overall, I don’t think
the Knights will move the ball on the Lions until we
see the 2nd and even 3rd string in the game. Look for
the Lions to cause quite a few 3rd and out series.
MH: I agree that Moffett should be the QB; however he
has shown a tendency to rush and panic if the
defensive pressure gets to him. Again, the question is
can the Lions get pressure on him. The defense had
their own sets of issues against BC that have to be
addressed quickly. I believe we lost our grip on the
BC game because the Eagles essentially ran well
against us - sound familiar? The defensive staff may
need to consider beefing up the tackle spots with some
added size, say with Ed Johnson or Elijah Robinson.
Added size at defensive tackle could help apply the
pressure necessary to break up the development of
those shifts from the offensive line. They may also
have to look at the positions of the linebacker
personnel in the lineups. I am doubtful we see any
major personnel changes, so the Lions have to come out
more aggressive from the get-go. Nirav, have I not
been asking for some solid blitzing for years now?
Well, I got blitzing, but they were as obvious as
Joe’s Brooklyn accent. The BC offense could see the
blitzing schemes from the moment the ball was set. You
could actually see the center pointing out the
pressure points as they came to the line and pulling
in the necessary reinforcements to plug them up, hence
they lost all advantage. The tools are there for an
effective blitz, but you have to mix them up and put
some shades over them or it's just a misuse of
personnel. They could especially have a scary blitz
against UCF, but don’t bother if you aren’t going to
disguise them. I know I sound like a broken record
sometimes, but when it comes to the secondary we have
to drop the ‘cushion coverage.’ I have been talking
about this since at least 2000. ‘Cushion coverage’ is
where the secondary lines up seven to eight yards, and
sometimes 10 to 15 yards deep on, say, a third and
five situation. The wideout or tight end simply runs
an angle, box or a curl route and amazingly they pick
up the five yards needed because they are tackled six
to seven yards downfield. If we want to eliminate the
third down efficiency of our opponents we have to play
tighter. You can bet UCF sees this and is looking to
exploit it.
Special Teams:
ND: The Lions had a couple of miscues against BC –
roughing the kicker and penalty on a contacting the
punt returner on a fair catch. However, in this game,
I think the Knights have an advantage. Matt Prater is
one of the best kickers in the country. He is 4-4 on
the year and has a long of 51 yards. Additionally, he
is one of the best punters in the country when is
asked to punt. The Knights do use Aaron Horn, but
Prater is averaging well over 40 yards a punt. The
Knights have a distinct advantage on Special Teams.
MH: That second ‘roughing’ the kicker was at worst
running into the kicker, 5 yard penalty, rekick! But I
digress. The Lions have been sloppy with special team
penalties. If this game comes down to kicking, which I
sure hope is does not, PSU may be in trouble. I am
watching for the Lions to remain aggressive and smart
on coverage. I certainly hope the coaches have not
gotten gun-shy due to the sloppy Big Ten punt calls
and called off the hounds.
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy
ND: Mark, as crazy as this sounds, the matchup that I
think will be interesting to watch is the Lions
against themselves. They lost the BC game; the Eagles
did not win it. I want to see if the Lions can reduce
the dumb mistakes and play good, sound football. The
Knights are not much competition so the Lions need to
play at a high-level and dominate this game. I’m
interested to see how they do.
MH: The Lions have the talent to win this game hands
down. The matchup I am watching is the PSU coaches vs.
the UCF coaches. The PSU staff has the talent, but are
they going to use it and make adjustments as the
Knights layout their game plan? If they do, PSU runs
away, if not, UCF gives them a game.
Keys to the Game:
ND: As I said, I think the Lions need to come out with
passion and determination to dominate the Knights. The
key to the game is for the Lions to be hungry to win
this game and for them not to shoot themselves in the
foot.
MH: I have to go with coaching. If the coaches come
out with confusing, aggressive schemes the Lions have
a big edge. If we see the lackluster approach to BC,
well, I don’t even want to go there.
Predictions:
ND: From what I can tell, the Lions should beat the
Knights pretty easily. I think they will play well and
get back on the winning track. This game could very
well be over by halftime.
PSU: 45 UCF: 10
MH: Wow, big pick! I agree, I just don’t think the
Knights have the horses to stick out this race. I
think they can make it a game for a quarter or two,
but PSU pulls away in the end and gets win number two.
PSU: 33 UCF: 13
Until Next Time…..
GO STATE……BEAT KNIGHTS!!!
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