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PSU Playbook - Wisconsin Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Sep 22, 2004 19:41 PDT
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Dear Lion Faithful,
ND: Well, it’s time to start the Big Ten portion of
the schedule now. It’s a clean slate for the Lions.
The Lions travel to Camp Randall to face the #20
Wisconsin Badgers. The Lions are in the midst of a
6-game road losing streak and they will be playing in
a tough environment that will be jazzed up this
weekend thanks to ESPN’s College Gameday airing in
Madison. It’s going to be an awfully good game.
MH: Let’s hope so. The Badgers have looked a bit
suspect at times, especially with the close call they
had with Arizona last week. Wisconsin is always big
and they know how to hold with the best of them, but
for some reason we play pretty well in Madison, having
won two of the last three in Camp Randall.
Dirty Details:
Who: Penn State at #20 Wisconsin
When: Saturday, September 25th at 5:45pm ET and 2:45pm
PT
Where: Camp Randall Stadium
Attendance: 81,000 +
Series: Wisconsin leads 6-3
Line: Penn State favored by 3.5pts.
TV: ESPN National Coverage with Ron Franklin, Mike
Gottfried, and Erin Andrews.
Radio: Penn State Sports Network with Steve Jones and
Jack Ham
Web: http://www.gopsusports.com,
http://psuplaybook.org
Trivia:
Prior to joining the Big Ten, how many times did Joe
Paterno play the Wisconsin Badgers?
Other Big Games this Week:
ND: Mark, there really aren’t too many outstanding
games this weekend despite most teams starting their
conference play. The one game that always seems to
draw attention is the Bowden Bowl – Clemson vs.
Florida State. I think Papa Bear is going to win this
game this year though. Of course, the other game is
Michigan and Iowa, but more on that later!
MH: It is a light week in terms of exciting games, but
I will be keeping an eye on a game out near you Nirav.
Oregon State heads to Tempe to face the Sun Devils who
are coming off a solid win against the Hawkeyes. Could
be an interesting Pac-10 matchup.
Upset Special:
ND: Well, I sort of gave it away, but I really think
that Iowa can go into the Big House and beat Michigan.
True Freshman QB Chad Henne still has plenty to learn
and they are not allowing him to use his WRs (Edwards,
Avante, and Breaston) to their full ability. As a
result, they are not playing good football. I think
Iowa’s stellar defense will confuse Henne and pressure
him into several turnovers. I think Iowa will bounce
back from a crushing loss last weekend and stun the
Maize and Blue this weekend.
MH: Given Michigan’s porous running game, I think you
may be onto something there. This is a long shot, but
given their issues recently Pitt better watchout for
mighty Furman. Sure, they’re ‘only’ Furman – exactly
what Rutgers said about New Hampshire!
Offense:
ND: Mark, the first thing that every member of the
Nittany Nation wants to know is whether the offense is
going to be put an end to all the stupid turnovers and
mental errors. I have a feeling that the coaches
worked long and hard on securing the football and the
QB/Center exchange this week. At least, I sure hope
they did because this group of Badger defenders may be
the best in the Big 10 by the time it is all said and
done. Everywhere you look, they have an All Big 10
candidate. If that isn’t enough, they are only giving
up 200 yards of total offense and 5 points per game.
Plus, I think they are going to show the Big 10 how to
play against Penn State. With the type of talent they
have at every position, I am expecting the Badgers to
load up the line of scrimmage to eliminate Tony Hunt
from the ball game. I am convinced that the Badgers
are going to force Zack and the inconsistent WRs to
beat them. And, that’s not all that easy either. CB
Scott Stark is probably the best cover corner (sorry
#21, but it’s true) in the Big 10 and he will blanket
MRob when Coach Hall puts him on the field. Smith and
Phillips must become real threats in this game to keep
the Badger defense from putting 8 and even 9 guys near
the line of scrimmage. Mark, the thing that concerns
me the most about this game is the unbelievable skill
and talent that the Badgers have on the defensive
line. Anttaj Hawthorne is the best in Big 10 and may
be the best Defensive Tackle in the nation. At 312
lbs., he is a monster. I fully expect him to prevent
anyone from running at him and I expect him to be
flushing Zack out of the pocket. At DE, Erasmus James
is coming off of a Big Ten Player of the Week
performance against Arizona. He is fast and very
talented and leads the team with 3 sacks and 5 TFLs.
Reggie Cribbs is the guy that has everyone quite
surprised. This sophomore was pushed into the MLB
position after an injury in the spring. He leads the
team with 19 tackles, has 2 TFLs, and 1 blocked kick.
Paul Jefferson will need to seek out Cribbs and
eliminate him if the Lions have any hope of running on
the Badgers. I don’t think the Lions are going to be
able to run the ball with any real success against the
Badgers so the fate of the Lions will most likely fall
on the shoulders of Zack Mills and his receiving corp.
MH: I am going to put it on the table right now – I
have faith in Zack Mills. He knows the issues he has
in front of him, he knows he has been forcing the ball
and I believe he knows how to eliminate them. You are
spot on though, with more turnovers than a pastry
shop, the Lions have to hold onto the ball or the Big
Ten will eat the Nitts alive. Lets start with Zack.
The offensive line is giving him outstanding
protection. They have given up only two sacks and I
would argue they may be giving Zack too much time to
throw. I think he may be over-thinking things since
the pressure is off him with the pass rush. That may
be a different song and dance with the Badgers. The
cheeseheads grow big linemen who can apply pressure
well. Hawthorne will be a load to keep in check. The
key to the passing game is for Zack to spread the ball
around. He can’t key off one player, but needs to get
Michael Robinson, Gerald Smith, John Bronson, Isaac
Smolko, Terrance Phillips and others involved. Stark
will shut down his side of the field, just like
Zemaitis does. Now, looking to the ground game, watch
for Tony Hunt o carry the load. Austin Scott is
expected to get reps, but he took some heat after the
fumble he had. Watch for him to have two paws on the
ball out there. The key to the running game is
swinging the door open on the bigger Wisconsin
defensive line. The Wisky linebackers are quick and
will plug up holes fast. Tony has to explode to the
open lanes and find some early success. My concern is
that if they hit some bumps early on that the staff
will abandon the running game like we did in Boston
and that spells trouble with a capital ‘T.’ If Galen
Hall is allowed to run his offense and keep the
Badgers guessing this could be an interesting outing
for the Lions. Hold onto the ball and let Galen do his
job and the Badgers may have met their match. Cough up
the ball and lock up the playbook and this game is
over before it begins.
Defense:
ND: Well, the good news for the Lions is that the
Badgers’ offense is struggling. After playing teams
like UNLV, UCF, and Arizona, the Badgers are only
averaging 312.7 yards per game of total offense. The
loss of Anthony Davis and Dwayne Smith are really
hurting this team. Stanley Booker has filled in
valiantly, but the offensive line for the Badgers is
not playing as well as people expected them to. The
Badgers are only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, which
is very unusual for a Badger rushing attack. I gotta
say that probably my favorite player in the Big 10 is
on this Wisconsin team. I love FB Matt Bernstein. He
is a terrific fullback that just blows up people with
this stellar blocking. However, I think Rice, Hali,
and Shaw should be able to stop the run fairly
effectively. The key will be for them to stop the run
on first down. I think the Badgers are very vulnerable
if they get into 3rd and long. If the Badgers get into
3rd and 2 or 3rd and 3, they will be able to move the
football pretty easily. The Badgers have terrific WRs,
but their QB is pretty green and is still trying to
get a hang of major college football. Sophomore John
Stocco has been completing about 50% of his passes,
has 3 TDs, and 1 INT. Again, with the Badgers playing
some fairly mediocre teams, these numbers are not all
that impressive. Plus, he is not exactly the most
mobile QB you will find, so the Lions should not have
to be too worried about his scrambling around and
making a big play. But, what the Lions have to be very
cautious about is the WRs. Jonathon Orr is a terrific
WR and is a real possession type receiver. Brandon
Williams is a huge playmaker, but the Badgers have not
been able to get him the ball as much as they would
have liked. I think they are going to make a real
point of getting him the ball against the Lions. Also,
keep an eye on Booker coming out of the backfield.
Booker is actually leading the team in receptions.
Also, keep an eye on Owen Daniels. This former QB has
turned into quite a receiving TE. Watch him when the
Lions bring a blitz because that is how BC beat the
Lions, throwing the ball out into the flat where the
LBs couldn’t cover because they were blitzing.
Overall, I think the Lions will be successful against
the Badger squad, but they will need to force
turnovers to give the team a shot at upsetting
Wisconsin.
MH: Lion fans should not relax yet, because reports
out of Madison are that Anthony Davis has been seeing
practice reps. It is still undetermined whether he
will play, but Alvarez is known to pull these kind of
moves. The Wisconsin offense has been less than
lackluster and a return of Davis, even at less than
100%, would be a major boost. The PSU defense had a
solid outing last week. Partially because UCF is that
pad and partially because Coach Bradley was apparently
allowed to make necessary adjustments. If the defense
staff takes off the leashes and lets the talent play
wild, this defense could have a banner day. Watch
specifically to Dan Connor, who was voted THE LION
90.7/PSU Playbook Lion of the Week vs. Central Florida
by the Nittany Nation. Observers feel that Dan is just
too good to keep on the bench, and although he likely
will not start, he is expected to get a majority of
the snaps. He, Posluszny and Shaw are developing into
a lethal combination and are showing flashes of
Linebacker U. Before we get too excited though, the
front four have to step up and play their part on run
defense. Stocco is not the best QB in the league, but
if you give him space with the classic PSU cushion
coverage, he can get the job done. Stop the run, make
him go to the air and play the secondary tight and the
defense is bound to take the ball away a few times in
this one. As you said Nirav, third and long is key,
but useless if we are going to play the loose in the
secondary. Watch for them to bring Orr across the flat
for some big plays. The safeties and linebackers have
to watch for this movement and not give into the
confusion he can cause on assignments. The biggest key
is disguising the blitz packages. If the PSU staff
telegraphs them the Badgers will pick them apart. They
will put safety valves on the wings or use a running
back as a target in the flat and destroy the blitz.
Bring the rush, but keep it under cover.
Special Teams:
ND: Mike Allen has been very inconsistent for the
Badgers in his kicking duties while Ken DeBauche has
been effective. But, the real story is punt return.
Jim Leonard torched the Lions on a punt return last
year and he is a real threat again this year averaging
over 17 yards per punt return. Calvin Lowry has showed
some real promise last week, but let’s hope that keeps
his hands on the football. Overall, I think the
Badgers have an edge on Special Teams.
MH: If Lowry leaves the dancin’ shoes at home and runs
to his abilities we can take that edge away from
Wisky. This game may come down to kicking. Paging Mr.
Gould, paging Mr. Robbie Gould, please report to
Madison with you A game! Robbie has to be ready for
this one to come down to some big kicks.
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy
ND: The best match-up is going to be WR Brandon
Williams and CBs Anwar Phillips and Alan Zemaitis. I
just have a feeling that the Badgers are going to make
a point of getting Williams more involved and it will
be great to see if Phillips and Zemaitis prevent that
from happening.
MH: Good pick. I’ll take Zemaitis in that battle. We
have a strong ability of shutting down major go-to
guys. My matchup is Tony Hunt against the Badger front
four. Tony is going to be battle tested in this one.
Patience and determination are the keys to winning
this battle.
Keys to the Game:
ND: I think the key to this game is Gerald Smith and
Terrence Phillips. If both of them don’t have a good
game, the Badgers will be able to load up the line of
scrimmage and stuff the Lions on every series. Zack
needs to get the ball to someone other than MRob and
that’s where Smith and Phillips have to step up.
MH: Coaching, coaching, coaching. If Coach Paterno has
faith in his staff and lets Galen Hall open up the
offense and Tom Bradley adjust on defense, Penn State
could have a solid game. If he panics and locks up the
playbook and grabs the controls, buckle up, because it
could be a long ride.
Predictions:
ND: I think the Badgers defense is going to be the
difference in this game and I think Booker Stanley
will prove that the Lions run defense is still very
much an issue. The game will stay close on the
scoreboard, but I don’t think it will be close for
those that actually watch the game.
UW: 17 PSU 10
MH: I think if the Lions eliminate the turnovers and
Hall and Bradley are allowed to coach, PSU walks away
with a nice win. If not, all bets are off.
PSU: 24 UW: 13
Trivia Answer:
Coach Paterno met Wisconsin once prior to joining the
Big Ten. In 1970 the Lions lost in Madison 29-16.
Until Next Time…..
GO STATE……BEAT BADGERS!!!
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