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PSU Playbook - Purdue Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Oct 09, 2004 06:19 PDT
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Dear Lion Faithful,
Note: We sincerely apologize for the delay with this
week's Playbook. Given some minor technical
difficulties we had to delay the distribution. Again
we apologize.
ND: Well, after losing 2 games on the road, it’s good
to see the Lions back home again. The Lions have
scheduled another Rally in the Valley to get the crowd
pumped up for the game this weekend against the
Boilermakers of Purdue. It’s been awhile since a
legitimate Heisman contender visited Penn State and
let’s hope that the Lions poke holes in Orton’s
campaign. But, it’s not going to be easy; the Boilers
have their eye on the Rose Bowl and even the Orange
Bowl. Oh, and Mark, we all know that this game is very
personal for me since my wife is a graduate of Purdue.
It’s the one weekend that we don’t cheer for the same
team. I just hope that the Lions don’t give her two
years in a row to rub it in my face!
MH: The one thing going for the Lions is they have a
history of playing both Heisman contenders and
high-flying QBs well. Guys like Heath Shula, Tim
Couch, Drew Breese and others have been shut down by
the Lions. This time around though the psyche of the
Nitts seems much more fragile and frankly, the Lions
seem to have a confidence problem. We have definitely
seen a shift in the Big Ten where teams like Minnesota
and Purdue are on the rise. This would be a major
boost for the Lions if they win, the chances seem slim
though if we see them come out an play like they have
the past few weeks – on offense at least.
Dirty Details:
Who: #9 Purdue at Penn State
When: Saturday, October 9th at 4:30pm ET and 1:30pm PT
Where: Beaver Stadium
Attendance: 107,000+
Series: Penn State leads 6-2-1
Line: Purdue favored by 9.5pts.
TV: ESPN National Coverage with Eric Collins, Andre
Ware, and Jimmy Dykes
Radio: Penn State Sports Network with Steve Jones and
Jack Ham, THE LION 90.7 Radio online at PSU Playbook.
Web: http://www.gopsusports.com,
http://psuplaybook.org
Trivia:
When was the last time Purdue won at Penn State?
Other Big Games this Week:
ND: Mark, there are a ton of great games on this
weekend. But, there is no better game on the docket
than the Red River Shootout, which is Texas versus
Oklahoma. Texas has a history of arriving DOA for this
game, but this might be the year that they finally
stump Stoops.
MH: You’ve got that right. This game should be another
classic and with Oklahoma having ‘issues’ with Texas
Tech, it should be a wake up call, the question is
does it wake up Oklahoma to get their act together or
Texas showing them Oklahoma is beatable?
Upset Special:
ND: Well, I already mentioned that I think Texas is
going to get Oklahoma this year, but the other upset
that could take place this weekend is the Bears of Cal
beating USC. The Trojans are ripe for an upset and I
think Coach Tetford might be the best coach that
doesn’t get the headlines in coach football.
MH: I know Minnesota is ranked on notch higher than
Michigan, but given their track record against the
Wolverines and the fact they are headed to Ann Arbor,
I see the Gophers as underdogs in this one. I think
they could knock the Wolvies for a loop though with
their 1-2 running back combination punch.
Offense:
ND: If things weren’t bad enough for the Lions, the
offensive line is now a bit banged up. Levi Brown will
not suit up for the game so Farris will probably get
the start. It is critical that the Lions come out and
establish a between-the-tackles running game. The
Purdue defense is very fast on the perimeter, but
Illinois hurt them by running right at them. Without a
doubt, I think running Tony Hunt up the middle is a
real strength. I am sure that Purdue will follow
everyone’s lead by loading up the line of scrimmage
and forcing the Lions to throw the ball. So, I think
Jefferson, the O-line, and Hunt need to be ready for a
physical game and need to be sharp right out of the
block. Don’t get me wrong, I do not have an issue with
the O-line’s performance this year. The offenses
anemic performance is an issue with no WR getting open
quickly or at all. As a result, Mills’ runs out of
time and the running game faces more 8-man looks. The
Boilers have 2 real run stoppers – DT Villareal and
OLB Iwuchukwu. Combined, they have accounted for 44
tackles, 8 TFLs and 2 sacks. But, also keep an eye on
DE Ray Edwards. This sophomore is going to be the next
great Big 10 DE and you can take that one to the bank.
He has accounted for 6.5 TFLs and 4 sacks already. He
is not super fast, but he has a host of moves that
will cause Richardson some issues. Mark, I think the
Lions can throw on Purdue. The Boilers employ the same
cushion coverage that has irritated fans in Happy
Valley. Look for the Lions to get the ball into the
WRs hands early and exploited that extra room off the
line of scrimmage. The Boilers have one CB that
impresses me – Antaun Rogers. He’s numbers aren’t
anything spectacular, but he’s a solid CB. Zack better
make sure that his passes are on-target because Rogers
is hungry for his first pick of the season. Just like
last week, the play calling must get the passing game
involved if Coach Hall wants the offense to move the
ball. It’s odd, but for the Lions, the passing game
opens up the running game. Sadly, hasn’t that been the
case for the last 5 years?!
MH: Nirav, you are right. As we reported on
PSUPlaybook.org earlier this week, the Lions have some
injuries on both sides of the ball. Levi Brown has a
knee sprain and Scott Davis sustained a thigh strain.
If that wasn’t enough to impact the offensive line,
Isaac Smolko (TE) reportedly suffered a wrist sprain
due a 'hyperextended separation' he sustained by
landing on it wrong. He could see action, but it will
likely limit him as a target in the passing game for
the Lions. Nirav you think the Lions can throw on
Purdue, but I think the only way they throw on Purdue
is if they find a way to build up some consistency in
the passing attack. Mark Rubin is a breath of fresh
air. The true freshman had 60 yards of receptions
against Minnesota. The question is do we have a
quarterback to deliver the ball. With Robinson out
still all eyes look to Zack Mills again. The issue is
Zack clearly has discomfort throwing the ball and if
the coaches are going to make him toss the long outs
(like those desperate Hail Mary balls) we have zero
chance of throwing on Purdue. The Lions need the
intermediate passing game, ala Tony Hunt, Mark Rubin,
John Bronson, etc. to kick into high gear. I know you
guys want big plays, but the name of the game is
winning. The Lions find success when they can run.
That means the offensive line, led by EZ Smith, have
to start stepping up. The OL can open holes if the can
get back to quick snaps off the blocks. We need Tony
and, yes, Austin to see action in the running attack.
The coaches cannot abandon the running game again;
else this will be a big time loss for the Lions. The
Nitts are banged up on O, but frankly their psyche
worries me more than their physical injuries. One or
two things go wrong and watch out, they could implode.
Defense:
ND: Mark, the defense has been incredibly good this
year. After last year’s disappointments, they have
done a remarkable job of keeping the game close. If
they could only prevent an early 3rd quarter,
game-killing drive from taking place, then I would say
that they are one of the best defenses we have had
since the 1999 crew of kids. But, they’re not there
yet. This game could change my thoughts though. Purdue
has, in my opinion, the best offense in the nation.
They are so smart and the play calling is impeccable.
The Boilers love to get teams frustrated with their
offensive formations. If a defense decides to play a
nickel defense, the Boilers will put Jerod Void split
out, which gives them a LB on a RB. If a defense
decides to play a dime defense, the Boilers will run
the ball. They have such a talented offense that they
force matchups that cause defensive coordinators to
scream in frustration. Kyle Orton is having a magical
year at QB and could do something that Drew Brees
never did – beat both Notre Dame and Penn State in the
same season. He is incredibly accurate and is very
smart with the football. So far, he has not thrown an
INT and statistically speaking, is the best QB in the
country. What he does well is read the defense and get
the ball out of his hands quickly. If Phillips and
Zemaitis are playing off of the line of scrimmage,
Orton will basically snap the ball and automatically
get the ball to his talented WRs. It’s like a running
play for the Boilers. Because they cause the defense
to get all spread out, one missed tackle and it’s like
LONG running play! Orton’s favorite targets are Taylor
Stubblefield and Kyle Ingram. Both of these guys cause
major issues for the Lions. Stubblefield has a ton of
experienced and has developed into one of the finest
WRs in Big 10 history. He has great speed, but his
moves are what really scares me. The guy never makes a
mistake. Ingram is a massive target. At 6’9”, he is
the tallest player in college football and has all the
skills to be a primetime WR. They like to use him on
fade patterns where he can jump over smaller
defenders. Coach Bradley needs to realize that
blitzing will not make a difference in this game
because Orton gets rid of the ball so fast. What he
needs to do is not give Orton the easy quick passes,
but still provide “over the top” protection when the
Boilers take their couple of shots down the field.
Void is a good RB, but the Boilers are all about the
passing game. Watch the Lions secondary to see if they
are playing press coverage or are they allowing a free
release. I think the Lions will shutdown the rushing
attack, but the Boiler passing game will be much too
much for Bradley to adjust to.
MH: The defense has been the redemption of this team.
The defense also has some injuries. Tim Shaw suffered
an ankle sprain, but will likely be ready as he has
reportedly been practicing this week. Also, it seems
that BranDon Snow has recovered from his broken foot.
The defense has played well overall. Sure, it has not
equated to wins in the Big Ten, but these guys shut
down a top ten offense last week. The problem is how
much more can they take given the horrid play of the
offense? I am nervous that these guys will start to
figure ‘what’s the point?’ if the offense can’t start
delivering. The Boilers will win this through the air.
We have to face the facts that Bradley’s ‘cushion
coverage’ seems here to stay and with the issues the
secondary has had giving up some big plays, Purdue is
licking its chops! Orton will go to the air early and
often. We will have to drop the linebackers back into
coverage and the staff should be looking at some dime
schemes to make Orton uncomfortable. If they can
disguise some packages and rattle Orton, we could set
the Boiler attack on its ear temporarily. Personally,
I would play Posluszny on Orton like we played
Arrington on Breese. Use him as a spy and sick the kid
on the QB. Let Paul get inside his head and really
have him concerned about where Paul lines up on every
down. The difference is that Sandusky used that tactic
and it is not in Bradley’s style. Watch Orton exploit
PSU’s cushion coverage with quick slant routes across
the flat. He will simply deliver the ball and let his
wideouts get the extra real estate. This guy is a good
QB and really could make this game ugly.
Special Teams:
ND: Mark, just like all good teams, the Boilers are
solid in Specials Teams. They have their best players
returning punts and kicks – Stubblefield and Void.
Their kicker, Ben Jones, is 5-6 on the year and is a
pretty reliable kicker. The only area that the Boilers
struggle a bit is punting. They are only averaging
31.5 yards per punt. I think Lowry could have a good
day. If things go well on defense, field position
could be a huge key to this game.
MH: I think the Lions need to shake off their timid
attitude thanks to the horrid roughing calls in the BC
and release the hounds on the kickers. The only way
PSU has a shot is with a consistent shot field (about
the Purdue 35 yard line), so we need strong returns or
some blocked kicks. Calvin Lowry has shown
improvement, but he is just not the game breaker, so
release Hardy, Pos and the boys and knock down a punt
or two.
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy
ND: Well, we’ve all been saying that the Lions have a
very strong secondary that really hasn’t been tested
by an NFL-caliber WR. Well, that’s about to change.
Purdue has one of the best receiving corp that the
Lions secondary will face. I think that’s the matchup
to watch – Purdue’s WRs and the Lions’ Secondary. This
game will come down to which group makes plays. It’s
that simple.
MH: I am not sold on PSU’s secondary save Mr.
Zemaitis, and even he has shown some lapses lately.
No, my matchup is Zack verses the Penn State coaches.
I know it sounds weird, but with Zack not at 100% and
getting the start the coaches have to give him a game
plan to win or at least contend. Scrap the long outs
and get that intermediate game going. If they do this
the matchup shifts between an adequate PSU passing
attack against a shaky Purdue secondary.
Keys to the Game:
ND: Mark, there are games where we say that the key to
the game is first down, time of possession, and the
like. That’s not the case this week. It’s as simple as
I stated earlier – whichever team makes more plays in
the passing game will win the game. I’m not saying
whichever team has more passing yards, because I think
that’s almost predetermined. Rubin, Smith, and
Phillips MUST play at a level that we have yet to see
in order to keep the Lions in this game.
MH: The key is mentality. These guys are down. They
have a loser mentality and they need to shake it! You
go in with a negative attitude and you are halfway to
defeat. Think like a winner and things start to
happen. This goes even more for the coaches than the
players. They need a top down change to the psyche of
this squad. On the other front it all comes down to
field position. If the defense gives PSU’s offense a
short field we have a shot…maybe.
Predictions:
ND: Purdue took a major step forward beating the Irish
in South Bend and I think they are going to take
another step forward this week. I have 2 non-score
predictions. Prediction #1: Taylor Stubblefield will
break the Big 10 receiving record in Beaver Stadium.
Prediction #2: Kyle Orton will not leave Happy Valley
without throwing at least 1 interception. But, in the
end, it won’t matter. The Lions just don’t have the
offensive power to stay with a better Boiler squad.
PU: 31 PSU: 17
MH: Yeah, the Lions have the wrong attitude and top to
bottom from where I sit. The defense could be one of
the better units in the Big Ten, but it is a moot
point if the offense continues to sputter. With the
offense not getting it done the Lions lose another
one.
PU: 35 PSU: 10
Trivia Answer:
Never! The Boilers have never won at Penn State. They
are 0-3-1 in Happy Valley.
Until Next Time…..
GO STATE……BEAT BOILERS!!!
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