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PSU Playbook - Iowa Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Oct 22, 2004 16:36 PDT
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Dear Lion Faithful,
ND: After a passionate fight against Purdue, the Lions
had a nice week off. It allowed the Lions to get
rested up and to focus on the second half of this
season. The Lions have to win 4 of the remaining 5
games. I think it is very possible that they can win 4
of 5, but they will have to find a running game and
continue their passionate, mistake-free play that they
had against Purdue. And, trust me; getting Michael
Robinson will be a big boost. This week, the Lions
have Iowa. The Hawkeyes seem to be getting better and
better every week. But, they are still beatable.
MH: The week was probably just as good for the PSU
fans as it was for the players. The Hawkeyes are
coming off a big win over a Buckeye squad that is
winless in the Big Ten and looks to be in a tailspin.
The Lions not only get Michael Robinson back, but
reports into PSU Playbook indicate that Paul
Posluszny, Tim Shaw and Levi Brown are all expected to
be ready for Iowa and all have been participating in
drills this past week.
Dirty Details:
Who: #25 Iowa at Penn State
When: Saturday, October 23rd at 12:00pm ET and 9:00 am
PT
Where: Beaver Stadium
Attendance: 107,000+
Series: Penn State leads 6-2-1
Line: Iowa favored by 1pt.
TV: ESPN2 National Coverage with Pam Ward, Mike
Tomczak, and Dave Ryan announcing.
Radio: Penn State Sports Network with Steve Jones and
Jack Ham
Online Broadcast: THE LION 90.7 webcast on PSU
Playbook
Web: http://www.gopsusports.com,
http://psuplaybook.org
Trivia:
When was the last time Penn State beat Iowa in Happy
Valley?
Other Big Games this Week:
ND: Mark, after losing a heartbreaker against
Wisconsin, Purdue must quickly change its focus to the
present as the Wolverines travel to West Lafayette. I
don’t think either team is out of the Rose Bowl hunt,
but whichever team loses, will be playing for the
Capital One Bowl. It should be a heck of game between
a great offense (Purdue) against a great defense
(Michigan).
MH: The Purdue-Michigan clash is one of the few good
games this week. Purdue has to pull up and make sure
they don’t sink into their own tailspin after a tough
loss to Wisconsin. It should be a dandy. Also, keep
and eye on Notre Dame vs. Boston College. BC is having
an identity crisis just having lost to Pitt on OT.
Notre Dame is in the Top 25 again, but BC has owned
them over the past few years.
Upset Special:
ND: OK, there aren’t too many great upset picks out
there this week, but I honestly think that Miami’s run
in the Top 5 could come to an end this week. They are
facing the Wolfpack of NC State, who is the best total
defense in the nation. All NC State will have to do is
score a couple of points and capitalize on turnovers.
I think the ‘Canes are gonna fall this weekend.
MH: Texas A&M has turned things around and are now
talking about 35,000 seat additions to their stadium.
A strange thought given they have a tough time selling
out their 85,000 home now. The Aggies are buzzing
though, but don’t count Colorado out, yes the Buffs
have been struggling, but they seem to match up well
against A&M and could give them a shock.
Offense:
ND: Mark, the passing game is coming around with the
emergence of Tony Hunt and Mark Rubin. I think with
Michael Robinson back this week, it should give the
Lions with a couple of playmakers. However, the
offensive line must protect Zack much better. #7 got
absolutely pounded in the second half of the Purdue
game. Iowa has a tough defense. Is it me, or has that
been the case with several of the previous games. The
defensive line for the Hawkeyes is very strong. DT
Babineaux leads the team with 11 TFL and 3 sacks.
Meanwhile, the DEs are real tough. Matt Roth is the
guy that everyone loves. He is not your typical DE. He
is more like a big LB at 270lbs. Roth was an
undefeated wrestler in high school and it clearly
shows because he has a mastery at using his speed,
strength, and leverage to beat RT all across the
league. The Lions will have to line up Smolko on the
right side of the line to help out. But, that leaves
Derreck Robinson running wild. Robinson has 7 TFLs, 2
sacks, and 2 fumble recoveries. Bottom-line is that
PSU’s offensive line has their hands full. The Iowa
LBs are probably the best unit in the country. Chad
Greenway and Abdul Hodge are strong, fast, and very
hard hitters. They are always making plays so the
Lions need to put a gameplan together that will cause
the LBs to make the wrong decisions. Running the ball
is going to be tough against this crew, but the Lions
must find a way to get it done. If they can, I think
the passing game is going to be that much more
successful. I thought Zack looked pretty good against
the Boilers and the receivers were actually getting
open. If the passing game remains constant and the
running game really picks it up, I think the Lions can
move the ball a fair amount.
MH: You said it pal. The success of this offense rests
on the shoulders of the offensive line. We handed out
our midseason grades this week on the Playbook site
and the OL did not score well. They have shown
improvement in pass protection early on, but the
Boilers were pressuring Zack with a three man rush.
That simply can’t happen. Things only get tougher as
the Hawkeyes will blitz their linebackers and throw
out a variety of packages to confuse Mills. The most
abysmal aspect of the line’s play though is their lack
of ability to open up lanes for the backs. The running
backs are really struggling which is crippling this
offense and making it easy to defend given that it is
one-dimensional. Against BC, Wisconsin, Minnesota and
Purdue Tony Hunt only rushed for an average 42 yards,
a 67% decrease from the average 131 yards per game he
picked up against Akron and Central Florida. I point
directly to the offensive line and the staff. The
staff continues to abandon the running game as soon as
it shows signs of struggle. As for the air attack Tony
has proven he is a formidable receiver. With the
return of Michael Robinson and the impact of Mark
Rubin and Isaac Smolko, the Lions can have a solid
intermediate passing attack. His would be enough to
keep the drives alive. Zack Mills has to be sharp;
makes sound decisions and not hold onto the ball too
long. The staff cannot ignore the possibilities
Terrell Golden brings to the air attack. I am still
shaking my head over benching him after his sole TD
catch against Purdue. So the kid showed a little
emotion. Heck, I think that may be just what this team
needs. If he breaks the rules and showboats sit him
for a drive or two, but don’t handicap PSU because of
it by keeping him out of the game. At some schools
Terrell’s endzone dance would have gotten him three
course credits. It was a nice move.
Defense:
ND: Well, the defense continues to play really well
and that won’t change this week. Shaw and Poz should
be back in the lineup, but the real question is going
to be where Dan Connor ends up. He is an excellent LB
that needs to continue to get playing time. Secretly,
I’m hoping that Wake “eats pine” in favor of Connor.
The Hawkeyes are having a real issue at running back.
Everyone that had any real experience has gotten
injured. They are now down to the kid that was the 5th
string RB coming into the season. Not good. Sam
Brownlee will get the start. He has 74 yards rushing
ALL SEASON. Damian Sims will get some time, but he
only has 31 yards rushing ALL SEASON. These kids are
not only going to struggle running the ball, but I’m
interested to see how they do picking up the blitz.
Bradley has to mix up his looks and send blitzes from
the corners, up the middle, and from the safety
position. They have to be careful though. Iowa’s QB,
Drew Tate is very, very mobile. If the Lions break
contain, Tate can scramble for some serious yards. The
Lions can shut this running game down. Tate has done
well throwing the ball and is making much better
decisions. He is completing 67% of passes and has
thrown 9 TDs with 6 INTs. In fact, he is 2nd in the
conference in passer efficiency. His primary target is
Ed Hinkel. I swear, this kid has been playing college
football for at least 8 years. Hinkel is one of the
most deceptive WRs in the league. The guys in Ann
Arbor get a ton of attention, but Hinkel is a real
star. But, the guy that the Lions really have to keep
an eye on is TE Scott Chandler. Tate has been turning
to Chandler more and more. At 6’7”, who can blame him?
Tate is a good QB, but I think the Lions are going to
put more pressure on him than he is used to. With no
real running game, Iowa will be one-dimensional and
will struggle against a good defense.
MH: Yeah, the defense has been something to cheer for
on this team. Coach Paterno threw out a curve ball
when he seemingly changed his earlier comments about
Dan Connor starting at middle linebacker, which the
official PSU depth charts lists him as this week. It
seems that Tim Shaw may start now, which would have
any reasonable PSU fan figuring that Dan will back up
Derek Wake again. Derek is really struggling and
simply does not have the package (ability, instinct
and skill) that Dan has. I second the motion to give
Dan the nod for the starting job. Like you Nirav, I
like how Penn State matches up against the Iowa
running game. Given their success here I think the
front seven should have a good outing, forcing Iowa to
head outside and to the air. The thing that scares me
is the secondary on those third downs. At some point
in the next decade we should realize that playing a
soft zone, which I painfully call a ‘cushion coverage’
burns us a vast majority of the time. How many times
did Orton and Purdue have a third an five, the Nitts
would be in a ten yard soft zone, Orton would check
off the line, they’d run a six yard slant to get FIRST
DOWN? Way too many times. I am pleased with how the
overall defense has improved, but the third downs have
to be snuffed out. Opponents are converting 38% of
third downs, which is down 4% from last season, but I
wouldn’t use last season as the benchmark to strive
for. Tate has his moments where he makes good reads,
but if the Lions apply some pressure I think they can
get one or two turnovers. The $65,000 question then is
‘Can the offense actually convert them?’
Special Teams:
ND: The Hawkeyes are pretty solid all the way around
on special teams. From Kyle Schlicher kicking FGs (7
for 9) to David Bradley punting (40.3 yards per punt)
to being 8th in the country in punt returns. I think
the real focus must be Penn State’s kicking game.
Robbie Gould is a very inconsistent kicker and his
skills are going to be needed if the Lions are going
to try to get bowl-eligible. Special Teams are still
not special, but they need to be real quick.
MH: This game make come down to kicking, which puts
Penn State at a disadvantage in my book. Robbie is
hitting 50% of his field goals. The Lions have to
kickstart their kicking defense. A blocked extra point
of field goal could be the deciding factor in this
game. Paging Mr. Paxson and Mr. Wake! The punting game
should give PSU a good edge in the battle for field
position, but Kapinos has been getting way too much
action in games. We need to keep him on the sidelines
and get some drives going.
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy
ND: Mark, I think the matchup to kickback and enjoy is
the Penn State pass defense against Iowa’s pass
offense. With all the injuries, Iowa will not be able
to run the ball so it will be critical for Penn State
to get good pressure on Tate and force him into making
mistakes. It should be fun to see how that matchup
plays out.
MH: I think it comes down to offensive line against
the Iowa blitz. Iowa is going to send Hodge and
Greenway to knock Mills down. The OL has to be ready
and allow Mills time to toss the ball. With adequate
protection we have a shot in this one, but the
offensive line has to come to play and play hard.
Keys to the Game:
ND: There are 2 keys to the game in my eyes. First,
the Lions must have a viable rushing attack. The
offensive line must open holes for Hunt and look for
Zack to run the option this week to jumpstart the
running game. The Lions must rush for at least 100
yards to open up the play-action pass. Secondly, they
must play with passion. For the first time in a long
time, I felt that the squad, the coaches, and the fans
REALLY wanted to win. They were fighting for every
inch in that Purdue game and I think the same
performance will be needed by the players, coaches,
and fans. Go get ‘em!
MH: I think it comes down to two factors as well. I
agree with your first point Nirav, the running game is
vital in this one. We go one dimensional and this game
is all over. Secondly, I am looking to the staff. If
we are going to take some ‘risks’ with personnel and
play-calling this is the time to do it. Is playing
Connor over Wake really a ‘risk’ at this point? I
think the staff is doing the team an disservice by not
putting them in a position to win. I know they can do
better, but do they know it?
Predictions:
ND: Mark, I really think that Penn State turned a
corner in that Purdue game. They played pretty good
football (with the exception of run blocking) and I
think that they are going to come out with a
determination that we have not seen in a couple of
years. These Lions are going to show us that they are
still bowl-contenders. I can just feel it!
PSU: 24 UI: 10
MH: I am not so sure Nirav. I want to believe that
they have turned a corner, but I think that this team
is uncertain how to win. That includes the coaches. I
hope you are right, but I have gotten my hopes up too
often to have them shattered. This team needs to show
me something special in order to convince me. I think
they have the ability to win this game, but ability
and execution are two different things.
UI: 21 PSU: 10
Trivia Answer:
The last time Penn State beat Iowa in Happy Valley was
that magical season of 1994. Yeah, sad isn't it?
Until Next Time...
GO STATE……BEAT HAWKEYES!!!
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