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PSU Playbook - Northwestern Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Nov 04, 2004 14:28 PST
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Dear Lion Faithful,
ND: It was another disappointing Saturday for the
Lions last weekend as they lost to the poisonous nuts
(Buckeyes). The formula was the same – great defense
but appalling offense and special teams. The Lions now
face a Northwestern team that has beaten Purdue and
Ohio State this year. They are playing good football
on both sides and have a veteran QB. It’s going to be
a tough battle for the Lions, but at this point, every
game is a tough battle for this pride of Lions.
MH: Disappointment is a recurring theme for Penn State
football nowadays. As much as I want to get excited
about a good defense, and I do think they are exciting
to watch, the sheer fact that we continue to lose just
sucks the wind out of any moral victories I start to
consider. I mean since when does Penn State need moral
victories? I guess the answer would be 2000.
Dirty Details:
Who: Northwestern at Penn State
When: Saturday, November 6th at 12:00pm ET and 9:00am
PT
Where: Beaver Stadium
Attendance: 102,000+
Series: Penn State leads 7-2
Line: Penn State is favored by 3.5 points
TV: ESPN Plus with Craig Coshun, Charles Arbuckle, and
Quint Kessenich
Radio: Penn State Sports Network with Steve Jones and
Jack Ham
Web: http://www.gopsusports.com,
http://psuplaybook.org
Other Big Games this Week:
ND: I think the big game this weekend is the Texas and
Oklahoma State game. Both teams have played well this
season and the winner of this game will probably end
up taking 2nd in the Big XII South. Personally, I like
the Woods brothers from OSU to pull this game out.
They looked great against OU last weekend and I think
they are an awfully good football team.
MH: I have a similar game to watch with the ‘other’
teams from Texas and Oklahoma when the Sooners clash
with the Aggies. Texas A&M is coming off a shocking
loss to Baylor of all teams! Watch for them to wake up
and strive to play spoiler against the Sooners as the
head into College Station.
Upset Special:
ND: Mark, I think the Aggies of Texas A&M have a real
chance at knocking off OU this weekend. A lot of
people wrote off TAMU after they lost to Utah, but
they have played exceptional football and I think the
Sooners are prime for an upset this weekend.
MH: This is funny because I think Oklahoma State has a
solid shot at upsetting the Longhorns. Like you said
OSU really took Oklahoma to task and gave them a game.
Texas better be ready for this one.
Offense:
ND: Mark, the Lions may have the worst offense that I
have seen from any Penn State squad. They have no
playmakers and when somebody is open, the QBs are not
making good throws. Mills should be back this week,
but I honestly think that Joe might put Morelli in the
game. We’ve all been hoping for it, but I think it is
very possible. The Lions should be licking their chops
because the Cats have one of the worst pass defenses
in the nation. They are giving up 261 yards per game
through the air. I know that they played Purdue tough
last weekend, but Orton had a bad day more than the
Cats forced Orton into bad throws. Zack, MRob, or AM
(Anthony Morelli) must take advantage of this porous
pass defense. Look for Smolko and Hunt to remain a
major part of the passing offense. The Oline will need
to be strong up the middle. The Cats have a very good
DT in Luis Castillo. #94 has 51 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 1
sack, and 1 forced fumble. He is very good and at
305lbs, he’s pretty big too. Additionally, the Cats
love to blitz right up the gut. You will not find a
better LB in the country than Tim McGargle. He won the
National Defensive Player of the Week last week (21
tackles against Purdue) and is a Nagurski Candidate.
He is ranked 2nd in the nation in total tackles and
1st in the nation in solo tackles. But, keep an eye on
Nick Roach coming from the Sam LB position. Roach is
2nd on the team in TFLs and leads the team with 3
sacks. He’s a quick LB that the Lions will need to
watch. I’m sure that the Lions will use the same type
of running attack that they used last week – run the
ball until the defense can stop them. With Austin
Scott most likely out with a concussion, Tony Hunt
will probably see most of the carries this week with a
couple of carries going to Kinlaw. The Cats are
average against the run, but they have speed on the
outside. The Lions will need to get some holes opened
up between the tackles. If that happens, I definitely
think that Hunt could have a 100-yard rushing day. I’d
really like to see the Lions use the Cats speed to
their advantage. I hope Galen Hall puts MRob in motion
to fake the end-around, which will cause the OLBs and
the DEs to stay honest and thereby opening up better
holes in the middle. Make the Cats think!! Overall, I
think the offense will probably look the same as they
have in the last couple of weeks, but they will have
every opportunity to actually play well. Whether they
can take advantage of those opportunities is a
different story all together.
MH: Nirav, as we reported in our injury report earlier
this week, Zack Mills is practicing and looking “good”
according to observers around the program. He is
expected to start and given that sole piece of
information I simply have little faith that Morelli
will see any significant time this week. I hope I am
wrong, but looking at the coaching situation I have no
faith that staff will take advantage of the situation
and give Morelli a chance to prepare himself for the
future. I have to apologize to all of our readers. I
do not mean to be negative, but let’s be honest, with
the passing game in an atrocious state, I once again
expect to see a one-dimensional offense, and that is
if we are lucky. We had some success with the run last
weekend, but in order to compete the coaches had to
make a commitment to the run with Tony Hunt, Rodney
Kinlaw and/or Austin Scott, who suffered a concussion,
but is probable for this weekend’s game. The offensive
issues all come down to the issue we’ve been facing
for several seasons now, an inept offensive line. The
line looks good on paper, but toss the paper away,
because this unit struggles with consistency when it
comes to opening up holes and pass protection. Until
we solve this fundamental aspect of the game this
offense will continue to stall out there. You can bet
that the Wildcats will come after PSU’s QB, no matter
who it is, fast and hard. You can bet that they have
been studying the game plan of every other Big Ten
team and they know exactly how to exploit the PSU
offense. Lots of pressure and zone coverage spell
success for opponents. If the Lions want a prayer in
this one the staff has to get creative. Scrap the QB
draw plays and start running screens, curls and
crossing patterns. We obviously can’t hit the deep out
routes consistently so let’s out some long drives
together with a balanced run and pass attack using the
slot receiver, tight end and halfback in the passing
game. We need innovation in this game!
Defense:
ND: Well, I think the defense may have another tough
test on their hands. The Wildcats run all kinds of
options and misdirection plays. With a veteran QB,
Brett Basanez, and a terrific RB, Noah Herron, their
offense has put some solid yards. Overall, they are
averaging 405 yards of offense per game (33rd in the
nation) and have averaged 24 points per game (64 in
the nation). They will face a tough PSU defense that
has made the most with bad field position and an
offense that can’t score. The Cats will be without
their best WR, Mark Philmore, who suffered a right
knee sprain against Purdue. Jonathon Fields is their
deep-ball threat and seems to be a guy that makes
plays every single game. Noah Herron is also quite a
receiving threat out of the backfield. With Andy Guman
out, Paul Cronin will most likely get the nod at the
safety position and will have to keep the Cats in
front of him. I think the Lions will have a tough time
against a pretty good offensive line. The front four
of Hali, Johnson, Paxson, and Rice have done a great
job of getting penetration. But, like last week, they
will need to be careful because Brett Basanez can run
very well. The defense will need stay in their lanes
and hold their assignments with this crazy offense. As
I mentioned, Noah Herron is a terrific back. He is
averaging over 100 yards rushing per game (18th in the
nation). He is a typical Northwestern running back –
short, stocky, but elusive. The Lions need to wrap him
up or he will slither out of tackles. Penn State’s
defense is now #7 in the nation and I think they will
have success against the Wildcats. Don’t be surprised
if the Cats are able to move the ball, but just not
able to get the ball in the endzone. The defense needs
to create turnovers in this game in order for the
offense to have a prayer.
MH: The Lion defense will have a challenge, but this
is a proud group who will play fast and hard. The
downside for the unit is Andy Guman is reportedly out
for the year due to a chest injury. That is a blow to
the secondary, but watch to see how Paul Cronin takes
over. My concern is how long can this unit can play
all out when the offense continues to squander away
every opportunity they hand to them. As for the rest
of the secondary they will have their hands full with
Fields. The defensive staff has to play aggressive off
the line. A big key is to play bump and run coverage
with Zemaitis and Phillips. These two are capable of
playing aggressive, but I expect we won’t and will
give Northwestern some easy third downs, hence keeping
the defense on the field. A real advantage for Penn
State is the front seven, who go up against Herron,
but should be able to use their swarming scheme and
keep him anxious on the run. Herron is a big
north-south runner. This means the linebackers, led by
Paul Posluszny will be instrumental in disrupting his
runs and making him make lateral moves to throw him
off. As you said Nirav, this back Herron is a good one
and you can be sure that Northwestern will stick with
the run. The key to success is staying aggressive and
tossing in some disguised blitzed to throw off
Basanez. I am confident the defense can get a turnover
or two in this one, like most games, however, I have
little confidence it will matter since the offense
will likely squander the opportunities, unless we see
a runback by the D.
Special Teams:
ND: Well, Gould finally hit a FG and Kapanos was the
Big 10 Special Teams Player of the Week. The Lions
must do a good job on kickoff and punt coverage this
week. They cannot allow Northwestern to play with a
short field. The Cats have a pretty good kickoff
returner in Jeff Backes, who is averaging over 30
yards a return and has returned one for a TD.
Fortunately, the Cats are pretty bad in the kicking
game. Brian Huffman is averaging only 39 yards per
punt and has made only 43.8% of his FG attempts.
MH: It is nice for Kapinos and he deserves credit, but
it is just another sign of the dire straights we are
in because our punter is always the hero of this team.
You said it though Nirav, coverage teams are
essential. Look what Ted Ginn did for Ohio State, a
touchdown and momentum. Win the battle of field
position and we have an outside shot at some safeties.
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy
ND: Mark, as I mentioned, Noah Herron is a terrific
running back and will pose a real problem for PSU. I
think the matchup of Herron versus our outstanding LBs
is going to be great watch. The LBs ability to contain
Herron is key to Penn State winning.
MH: I am interested in the other side of the ball.
Austin Scott could be ready for action. It will be
interesting to see he, Hunt and/or Kinlaw to go
against the Wildcat front seven. If we want to have a
shot we need the running game to get started,
otherwise it’s another long weekend for Nitt fans.
Keys to the Game:
ND: How can I make it any simpler – offensive
production. The Lions must get some production out of
their offense or this game will repeat the trend we
have seen all season. It’s up to the offense to keep
the Lions in this game. Also, it is critical the Lions
play hard all the way through this game. The Cats have
made a reputation of coming back late to steal games.
It’s a 60-minute game so the Lions need to play tough
all 60-minutes.
MH: Yeah, this is a no-brainer. As the offense goes,
so goes Penn State. If the offense continues to stall
so does the entire team. The staff has to start
earning their keep and putting this team in a position
to win. I am convinced that if we see a QB draw in the
first drive we lose this game. Play to win guys, play
to win.
Predictions:
ND: Because this game is at home and because it is the
first game I will be attending in 4 years, I think the
Lions are going to pull it together and make me
believe that they aren’t as lousy as I think they are.
I think the defense will make some plays and someone
on the offense is going to get lucky.
PSU: 17 NU: 13
MH: Nirav, getting sucked in again are we? This
offense has not shown me enough to warrant a pick. I
think they step up a bit, but the staff simply needs
to do more to get this offense to understand how to
succeed.
NW: 17 PSU: 13
Until Next Time…..
GO STATE……BEAT SOMEONE!!!!
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