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PSU Playbook - Indiana Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Nov 11, 2004 16:54 PST
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Dear Lion Faithful,
ND: Well, this season is quickly coming to a close and
the Lions are faced with an off-season that will not
include a bowl game for the 4 time in the last 5
years. But, the Lions do have one challenge in front
of them – avoiding being the worst team in the Big
Ten. Therefore, there is still something to fight
for…Lion Pride! The Hoosiers are a pretty bad team,
but….talk about the pot calling the kettle black. The
Lions will have to overcome their road woes and we’ll
see how much fire they have for this game.
MH: I can’t believe I am saying this, but I am pleased
to see this season come to a close. It is a shame
really since we look so forward to the season and when
you continue to have results like this we can’t wait
for it to end. This team, the coaches and especially
Joe Paterno have a tremendous amount of soul searching
ahead of them, because the tolerance, or what is left
of it, of the Nittany Nation is wearing thin quickly.
Dirty Details:
Who: Penn State at Indiana
When: Saturday, November 13th at 12:10pm ET and 9:10am
PT
Where: Memorial Stadium
Attendance: 25,000-30,000
Series: Penn State leads 9-0
Line: Penn State is favored by 4 points
TV: ESPN Plus with Wayne Larrivee, Randy Wright, and
Beth Mowins
Radio: Penn State Sports Network with Steve Jones and
Jack Ham
Web: http://www.gopsusports.com,
http://psuplaybook.org
Other Big Games this Week:
ND: By far, the biggest game in the college landscape
is the Georgia/Auburn game. This game will be a great
game and I’d highly recommend any college football sit
down and watch this matchup. After all, if you’re
going to watch PSU and Indiana, you might as well
balance it with Georgia and Auburn!
MH: Amen. The Georgia/Auburn clash will be a ‘dawg’
fight for the upperhand in the SEC. This should be a
fast-paced, exciting game to watch, a refreshing
change from what we have been provided by PSU.
Upset Special:
ND: Mark, there are a couple of upsets that I think we
might see this weekend. First off, I think Michigan
State has a very good chance at beating Wisconsin. The
game is in East Lansing and I think MSU may have just
the right type of offense to put up some points
against Wisconsin. We’ll see if the Spartans can
eliminate Wisconsin’s dream of an undefeated season.
MH: Although it may not sound like an upset, I think
the struggling Miami has a good shot at getting their
heads on straight and knocking off #11 Virginia at
UVA. Coker realizes his team has revealed some major
weak points, but is sure to have this team ready for
the newfound power of the Cavaliers.
Offense:
ND: The Lions are finally in luck! The Hoosiers are
terrible on defense and better yet, they’re terrible
against the run. The Hoosiers are surrendering 434
yards of total offense. The real Xmas present for
Galen Hall is that they are giving up 206.7 yards
rushing per game. To put it in perspective, Akron and
UCF are both better against the run than IU. So, if
I’m Galen Hall, I call a running play on every single
down. There’s no reason to throw the ball more than 20
times in this game. The Lions must play to their
strength and to the Hoosier weakness. The Lions should
run so often that Hunt and Scott both get 100 yards
rushing. No bones about it. Any attempt to the throw
the ball more than run the ball is flat out stupid.
Mark, do you remember a couple of years ago when Shawn
Mayer lead the team in tackles and we all thought it
was a tell-tale sign of a bad Defensive line and a bad
MLB? Well, Herana Jones (Free Safety) leads the team
in tackles for the Hoosiers. The other guy to keep an
eye on is Kyle Killion. This MLB has 14.5 TFLs, 4
sacks, 1 INT, and 2 forced fumbles. He’s a decent
player amongst a pretty porous defense. The offensive
line will be able to push around the Hoosier defense.
I’m sure that we will see plenty of Zack Mills at QB,
but I think Joe is going to make a point of getting
Morelli a fair number of snaps. There has been plenty
of discussion about the decision to burn AM’s redshirt
and how Joe owes AM some playing time. I think we will
finally see it this week. After all, how hard is it to
hand the ball to a RB and throw the occasional screen
pass? As you can tell, I’m confident that the Lions
will have success on offense as long as they run the
ball early and often and they hang on to the football.
MH: You are exactly right, Nirav. This game should
more running than the Boston Marathon. Pound the ball,
pound the ball, pound the ball! Even if we can’t get
some quick scores together if we keep running the weak
Hoosier defense should wear down on the run. I’d also
like to see them bait them with the run and toss out a
nice intermediate pass to the flat to Robinson or
Smolko to keep them guessing. I am skeptical that we
see a lot of Anthony Morelli in this one. Paterno acts
as if it is a chore to play the kid saying he has to
“bite the bullet.” Is playing one of the top QB
recruits nationally that much of a risk given our
current dire straights? Paterno also says he has an
“obligation” to Zack. Now, you know I am among the
biggest Zack fans out there, but doesn’t he also have
an obligation to the Nittany Nation and the university
to succeed? I continue to be baffled by his comments
and frankly continue to have limited confidence in
this offense. Not because of the talent, but because
of the play-calling system they use. It so illogical
it would make Spock blow a gasket. For those who
missed it I broke down the system this week on
PSUPlaybook.org.
Here it is in a nutshell:
Step 1: Run or Pass?
Galen Hall reportedly has been the decision maker when
it comes to determining whether they want to move the
ball on the ground or through the air. However,
observers have indicated that Jay Paterno now
seemingly is involved in this process as well given
that the two coaches now sit with each other in the
press box more and more during games. This in itself
adds another dimension of complexity to an already
confusing approach.
Step 2: Which Play?
Once it is determined whether or not the offense is
ready to throw or run, the ‘appropriate’ coach then
determines the play to send in. In the case of a run
play Galen decides on the play, in the case of a pass
play Jay sends it in.
Step 3: Veto?
According to observers Joe Paterno has executive veto
power over the offensive play-calling. This in itself
may not seem inappropriate to some, given that he is
ultimately responsible, however add the fact that Joe
does not wear a headset and reportedly requires
someone to tell him about the play (typically wide
receiver coach Mike McQueary) and you have added yet
another convoluted step to the atrocious process.
Step 4: Send It In!
A player then brings the play into the huddle. This is
typically the quarterback, but can also be a player
who is coming off a personnel shift. The delays
associated with sending the play in have been evident
given that Zack Mills and Michael Robinson have been
seen motioning to speed things up on more than one
occasion. Now, you 25 seconds to call a play in and
let’s say, everything goes perfect, so, say you have
five seconds to determine run or pass with no debate,
five seconds to determine the play and send it down,
five seconds to determine there is not veto and send
the play in. That is 15 seconds with 10 seconds to
spare on the clock. Now that is a ‘PERFECT’ scenario.
They need to can this system if they have a prayer of
winning in the future.
Defense:
ND: Well, the defense weren’t necessarily bad last
week against the Wildcats, but they weren’t
necessarily stellar either. The Hoosiers are averaging
over 310 yards of offense and are staying quite
balanced between the run and pass. QB Matt LoVecchio,
the Notre Dame transfer, broke the IU record for pass
completion percentage last week by connecting on 88%
of his attempts. That’s impressive. I think the
numbers are very deceptive on IU. They are actually a
pretty good offensive team. LoVecchio has 12 TDs and 6
INTs. His favorite target is Courtney Roby, who
recently broke the IU record for most career receiving
yards. He is a very good and very underrated WR He is
averaging over 80 yards per game and has 6 TDs. The
Lions must keep him under wraps. LoVecchio likes to go
to Roby when he’s in trouble or when the Hoosiers need
to convert a critical 3rd down. The key is get
pressure on LoVecchio. The Lion front four were unable
to wreak much havoc last week. Let’s hope that they
play with more tenacity this week and get after
LoVecchio. IU has a very average running game that is
led by BJ Green-Ellis. He is only getting 3.2 yards
per carry. Tim Shaw should see action this week, but
I’m sure Dan Connor will get plenty of playing time at
the OLB position. The LB crew has done a terrific job
against the run this year as has the front four
despite some sloppy tackling technique last week.
Overall, I think the IU offense is better than
advertised, but they are no match for this Lion
defense. The Lions will need force turnovers and will
need to keep Roby under control.
MH: The secondary has to be on in this one and keep
Roby contained. We have nothing to lose so Tom Bradley
should really unleash the hounds and play aggressive
on the blitz and bump and run coverage. The defense is
reportedly frustrated by the offense’s play, but they
have to keep their morale and intensity up. Heck, if
these guys give the offense a short enough field or
run one back we could win this game. The key is the
linebackers though. These guys have been the pride of
PSU and really are having a tremendous year. If they
can continue to confuse LoVecchio as they have with
other QBs they give Penn State a shot to win, assuming
we find some semblance of an offense. The exciting
thing about this defense is we only lose Wake and
Guman next year. Find an offense and a new
play-calling system and this team could be special in
2005.
Special Teams:
ND: Mark, Gould missed another FG last week so his
woes continue. IU’s kicker and punter is Bryan
Robertson. In both cases, he’s competent, but, the
real strength of IU’s special teams is their ability
to run back kickoffs. Granted, as a team as bad as IU,
they have plenty of opportunities to run back
kickoffs, but they are still averaging over 30 yards
per kickoff return, which is 2nd in the nation. Gould
will need to get some great kickoffs. Again, the
special teams kids will need to come up with some
plays - a blocked punt, big return, or a made FG. The
Lions really cannot pull this game out with only phase
of the game.
MH: Special teams have been so frustrating to me.
First, you obviously have the inconsistency on field
goals which is a back-breaker. However, our return
game decision making has been downright bad. The
return men simply have had issues between when to fair
catch, when to let it go and even when to let kickoffs
go out of bounds. Coverage teams have been a plus and
they will need to come up big in this one. Come on
guys we used to win games like these in our sleep!
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy
ND: LoVecchio is a good QB and I think the best
matchup is the Lion secondary against the very
accurate LoVecchio. We’ll see how well Cronin and
company can shutdown the passing attack of the
Hoosiers.
MH: I have to go with the PSU ground game against the
porous run defense of Indiana. Will the PSU coaches
abandon the run or realize that the more you run the
better shot we have of a win? Your guess is as good as
mine.
Keys to the Game:
ND: Turnovers. If the Lions don’t turn the ball over,
I think the will have this game wrapped up. So, the
team that wins the turnover battle will win this game.
Let’s hope that the defense causes some a couple TOs
and that the offense just hangs on to the ball.
MH: Emotion. Will the Lions fold like a house of cards
or do they have a shred of pride left to grab a win in
conference. I am hopeful that we have some guys who
have the pride and passion to bring a win home to PSU.
Predictions:
ND: Mark, I think the Lions are going to pull it off
this week. OK, granted, I’ve picked the Lions to win
the last couple of weeks, but I really think they will
win this week. IU is just so bad against the run that
as long as the Lions hold on to the football, this
game should theirs to win. I expect a couple of stupid
mistakes that bring some drives to a screeching halt,
but in the end, they’ll pull it out.
PSU: 17 IU: 7
MH: Nirav, I think you’ve been duped again. The
offense has shown me nothing. I mean Zack Mills was in
utter shock when they scored a TD against
Northwestern. That spoke volumes to me. I think the
defense keeps it close, but without an offense this
team takes another one on the chin. I hope I am wrong.
IU: 10 PSU: 3
Until Next Time...
GO STATE……BEAT SOMEONE!!!!
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