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PSU Playbook - Michigan State Preview
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PSU Playbook
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Nov 19, 2004 06:32 PST
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Dear Lion Faithful,
ND: Mark, the Lions pulled out a win last week against
the Hoosiers and had a goal-line stand for the ages.
The defense came up big in the end and I thought the
offense started to click in the second half. This
week, the Lions face the Spartans, which is not going
to be an easy game. More importantly, it will be the
last time that many Lions put on the blue and white
jerseys. These guys have not had the same level of
success that the previous graduating classes have
experienced, but make no mistake, they fought tooth
and nail every step of the way. Zack, Derek, Andy,
Paul, and all the other kids played with heart; they
played with pride; they played like Penn State
football players. I hope that the crowd shows them the
appreciation that they earned and deserve. We often
measure football teams by wins and losses, but I’d
like to measure these Nittany Lions on the character
and class that they have displayed over the last
several years. Thanks guys and we’re going to you.
Best of luck on your next stage of life.
MH: Nirav, I am happy to report that you were right
about the Indiana game and I was wrong. Before we get
too excited we have good news and bad news. The bad
news is that PSU won a close one against Indiana. The
good news is that the Lions have received two
commitments from two nationally ranked prospects this
week – Justin King, a 6’, 180 lb., 4.4/40 from PA and
Lydell Sargeant, a 5’10”, 180 lb., 4.5/40 RB/CB from
CA. Amazing when you consider PSU’s recent history and
the fact they can still pull in great talent. The
issue is that Penn State is playing the most
consistently inconsistent team in the nation. Year in
and year out MSU loses to creampuffs (e.g. Rutgers)
and beats powerhouses (e.g. Wisconsin). Hopefully they
are satisfied with their Badger win and take this week
off.
Dirty Details:
Who: Michigan State at Penn State
When: Saturday, November 13th at 12:00pm ET and 9:00am
PT
Where: Beaver Stadium
Attendance: 100,000+
Series: Michigan State leads 11-9-1
Line: Michigan State favored by 3.5 points
TV: ESPN2 with Pam Ward, Mike Tomczak, and Dave Ryan
Radio: Penn State Sports Network with Steve Jones and
Jack Ham,
Free Webcast: The Lion 90.7 via http://psuplaybook.org
Web: http://www.gopsusports.com,
http://psuplaybook.org
Other Big Games this Week:
ND: I don’t care what anyone says, there is only one
game this week as far as I’m concerned and that’s the
Ohio State/Michigan game. The rivalry between these
schools is bigger than any non-Big Ten fan can even
imagine. I think this year’s edition could be another
dandy. The other game that will kinda fun is here in
my neck of the woods. The Civil War game, which is a
match-up of Oregon and Oregon State, is always a
heated game, but this year it’s going to be even more
meaningful. Both teams have records of 5-5 so the
winner will go to a bowl game while the loser gets to
sit at home. Does it get any better than that?
MH: Nirav, you are right and this time Ohio State can
play the spoiler. All those times that the Wolverines
have ruined the Buckeyes’ season, the Bucks can now
return the favor to Um. The is a game where records
and rankings just don’t matter. It should be another
knock down, drag out brawl. I love it.
Upset Special:
ND: Mark, I think the Auburn Tigers are a heck of a
football time, but I think they might get knocked off
his week. They have to travel to Tuscaloosa to face
the Crimson Tide of Alabama. Auburn played a great
game against Georgia. But, this week, they will face
one of the best overall defenses in the nation. ‘Bama
plays absolutely fantastic defense. If ‘Bama can
muster some offense (sound familiar?), then I think
Auburn might fall out of the national championship
picture.
MH: I think Ohio State has a solid shot at knocking
off Michigan this week. I know they have one of the
worst offenses in the nation, but you can bet Tressel
will have his team focused away from the scandal
reports. He has figured out how to beat UM and could
very well do it again.
Offense:
ND: The offense showed some real progress in the
second half. But, let’s face it, it was against
Indiana. However, Michigan State really is not a great
defensive team either. They are middle-of-the road in
the Big Ten. The Spartans are giving up 24 points per
game and are allowing about 375 yards per game. Here’s
what it comes down to…the Spartans outscore their
opponents and force their opponent to be
one-dimensional and then they tee of them. Penn State
must stay balanced throughout the game. Mark Rubin
made some great plays and it is critical that the
Lions get someone other than Michael Robinson as a
real threat. But, I also hope that Galen Hall draws up
plays that uses Robinson as a decoy. For example, run
Michael Robinson a deep post route and then have Tony
Hunt run a wheel route. This will keep a LB matched up
with Hunt with no safety help. Granted, this only
works in man-coverage, but I really think that using
MRob in this fashion would work like a charm. Mills
needs to play well and make smart decisions with the
football. Zack’s real strength has always been
spreading the ball amongst many receivers and I think
it’s critical that he do the same thing this week.
Look for the Lions to take a shot deep to loosen up
the Spartan defense. The Spartans have two very
aggressive safeties. Eric Smith and Jason Harmon are
second and third, respectively, on the team in
tackles. Smith has 7 pass break ups while Harmon has 3
INTs. Zack will need to keep an eye on these guys and
watch for them “squatting” on routes. A double-move or
two could result in some big plays. When it comes to
the pass rush and to the running attack, things will
be a bit more dicey. The Spartans are very big and
very fast. The offensive line will have their hands
full. There is no doubt about it, the offensive line
must have their best game of the season. I’ve also
noticed that Hunt and Scott have not been hitting the
hole as hard and as fast as they did early on. These
cannot be reluctant and must take it to the Spartans.
The offense can have some success against this
defense, but they will need to be flawless to be in a
position to win this game.
MH: In my mind this was a nice win, but it really
changes nothing. We had to take a safety to beat
Indiana. A few years ago this would have been how we
beat nationally ranked team, not a Big Ten doormat. I
think Zack Mills, despite the criticism he has
received deserves a lot of credit for this one. Yes,
he tossed a bad interception in the first quarter, but
he stormed back and put together some nice drives. I
am totally on board with your analysis of how to beat
Michigan State – balance. The Lions have to spread the
ball around and get the ground game going. Tony Hunt
and Austin Scott found some success against Indiana,
but Michigan State’s run defense is a bit better.
Neither back really stood out, but one of them needs
to step up and provide consistency with the ground
game. Chances are Zack Mills will get the majority of
snaps in this one. It was great to see Anthony Morelli
get some meaningful time. He made some mistakes, but
the more he plays the faster he will improve. I hope
he sees some time in this clash as well. With Zack
getting the majority of reps though he has to get a
good balance of receptions to guys like Mark Rubin
(what a clutch catch), Isaac Smolko, Terrell Golden
and Michael Robinson. Let’s not kid ourselves, we
can’t consistently hit the homerun ball with the
passing game, so we have to look for sustained drives
with the intermediate air attack. If we get that down
pat along with a fairly consistent ground game, we
again have a shot. The lynchpin to the whole kit and
caboodle is the offensive line. It really has been the
Achilles’ heel in the offense. They have to find a way
to open up some holes here and there and keep the
hounds off Zack. The game really hinges on their
success.
Defense:
ND: Mark, I think this game might be the biggest
challenge that the Lions have faced all season long.
The Spartans have weapons at every position and are
playing incredibly well. QB Drew Stanton will start
this weekend after surrendering the starting role the
last couple of weeks due to a separated shoulder.
Stanton is a very good, young QB. He has a strong arm
and is a very good runner. It seems like I’ve been
writing this every week, but the Lions need to be
aware of Stanton’s ability to scramble and pick up
first downs when he can’t find a receiver down the
field. The Spartans don’t have any single receiver
that is making any press, but they have a corp of kids
that are playing well collectively. The kid that
always scares me is Agim Shabaj. Stanton loves to go
to him on 3rd down so Donnie Johnson or whoever is the
nickelback will need to keep an eye on him. What makes
the Spartans particularly potent on offense is their
balance. They have a terrific running game that is
lead by Jason Teague. Teague is a fast and elusive
runner. Poz and Connor will need to wrap him up or he
will wiggle free. But, the guy that is really scary is
freshman Jehuu Caulcrick. He reminds me of TJ Duckett
with his size and speed. The Spartans also have a very
good offensive line. In fact, right tackle Sean Poole
was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week for his
performance last week against Wisconsin and Erasmus
James. Why is this significant? It was only the second
time in league history that an offensive lineman was
named Conference Offensive Player of the Week. Of
course, he will have to face this week’s Defensive
Player of the Week in Poz. The Spartan offense is
firing on all cylinders. If Stanton were to re-injure
his shoulder, then the wheels could come off very
quickly because his backup, Damon Dowdell, is not only
a bad QB, but he’s also injured with a bruised right
shoulder. The Lions must get pressure on Stanton and
see if that separated shoulder is still a bit weak.
Mark, this is a good offense so the Lions will need to
find a way to force some turnovers.
MH: The Spartans are loaded on paper, but the defense
is primed for this one. They have simply been looking
for something to play for and with a win in their
pocket thanks to a classic four down goal line stand,
these guys are pumped. It should be an old-fashioned
smackdown. Michigan State does have a solid air attack
and this is what scares me the most about them, given
the cushion coverage we insist on playing. If you give
the MSU wideouts space they will take it. That
concerns me given the fact that LoVecchio found
success passing the ball. I think the front seven can
contain Teague and their ground game. They will find
some success on the wings, but if we can force them
outside I think the linebackers will be able to take
care of business on the ground. Posluszny and Connor
are really becoming a fun duo to watch. They are
bringing back flashes of the Linebacker U. of old. I
expect Poz to have a solid game here since I think the
Spartans will want to run right at him, since they are
confident coming off their Wisconsin win. Watch for
Coach Bradley to try to bait Stanton with blitzes and
stunts. If they can get him guessing on the schemes
PSU is tossing out they can pull in a interception or
two. Stanton is a solid quarterback, but he can get
overconfident and throw dangerous balls at times. We
will need a turnover or two (that the offense
capitalizes on) for us to stick in this one.
Special Teams:
ND: Mark, Michigan State has a huge advantage on
special teams. They have the nation’s best punter in
Brandon Fields, who is averaging almost 49 yards per
punt. They also have a strong, consistent kicker in
Dave Raynor, who is 18 of 22 on FG kicks this year.
The Lions will need to get some pressure on Fields in
an attempt to get some good field position. They also
need to get some good returns from Lowry and whoever
is going to return kicks. The Lions are going to need
all the help they can get in this game and special
teams may be just the place to get a boost.
MH: The Spartans definitely have the edge when it
comes to field goals. If it comes down to kicking we
are in trouble. Penn State has to focus on their
kickoff coverage and give MSU some long fields to work
with. Punting I see as a wash though. Kapinos is every
bit as good as Fields. Special teams could determine
this game.
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy
ND: Michigan State offense has been playing as well as
any team in the Big Ten. I think the real match-up is
going to be Michigan State’s running game against Penn
State’s LBs. We’ll see how well Connor, Poz, and
senior captain, Derek Wake are able to contain Teague.
MH: You took mine Nirav. I have to agree and say this
matchup will be an interesting one to see develop. The
PSU defense has something to prove and if they can
contain the MSU offense it will be a big boost for
them.
Keys to the Game:
ND: Mark, I think the key to this game is for the
Lions to play mistake-free football and they have to
have one of those games where they force turnovers,
make huge plays, and get a couple of lucky breaks. I
guess the key to the game is for the Lions to play
their best game of the season and to play with the
same heart and determination that we have seen from
the group of seniors throughout their career.
MH: I think this comes down to the offensive line. As
they go so goes the entire PSU team. If they find a
way to keep the pressure off of Zack’s back we may
have a shot, if not, this game could get ugly.
Predictions:
ND: Mark, I’m honestly not sure why the spread on this
game is so conservative. Michigan State is playing
incredibly well and with Stanton back at the helm, I
think they might be one of the best offensive teams in
the conference. In short, I’m afraid the Lions just
won’t get the type of victory that each and every one
of the seniors deserves.
MSU: 31 PSU: 14
MH: Yeah I expect another letdown like last year. I
hope once again I am wrong, but the Lions are in an
uphill battle in this one. I think the defense keeps
the Spartans in check, but the offense struggles.
MSU: 17 PSU: 10
Until Next Time…..
GO STATE……BEAT SPARTANS!!!!
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