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Weather ezine December 29, 2004  Ken Ring
 Dec 28, 2004 12:35 PST 

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Weather By The Moon

WEATHER EZINE December 29, 2004
Current Moon
Earthquake in Jakarta
Why the cooler weather?
What will these declinations mean for NZ?
10-day NZ forecast
January for Auckland
January for Coromandel
January for Canterbury
Summary notes for NZ for the next three months
Christmas and summer notes
White Christmas in other hemisphere
2005 in NZ
NZ disasters expected
Australia weather coming
Moon in January
Cyclone season in NZ
Dolphin Strandings on cue
Solar System barycentre
Contact

Current Moon
In the week coming up;
Monday December 27th: northern declination, full moon.
Tuesday December 28th; apogee
Monday January 3rd: crossing equator heading south
Tuesday January 4th: Last quarter

After the full moon of the 27th NEs have, as usual, clicked in, and the northerly systems generated from the moon in northerly position will bring unsettled weather across the country. Severe weather warnings have already been posted. This weather should last only until the 31st and then blow off. Dolphins have stranded in Tasmania and NZ on the day of northern declination, again as usual.

Earthquake in Jakarta
This terrifying (full moon) earthquake was within a day of apogee. Most earthquakes do occur around new or full moons, and near midnight, midday or early morning. The epicentre of this one seems to have occurred 45 mins after moonset and15 mins after sunrise, with the sun and moon on the horizon at opposite sides of the sky. (The McQuarrie Island earthquake occurred about 35mins before MS). Although the earthquake was at the same moontimes that many large earthquakes have occurred in the past, (such as the 1931 Napier earthquake which was also at FM, ND and apogee/perigee) the giant tsunami has come about because the eruption was only 7 metres below the earth's surface.

It was the world's biggest for 40 years, since 1964 when Prince William Sound was hit with a 9.2. Also there was another huge same-sized earthquake just slightly south of this (Indonesian)one in 1833 (9 x 19 years, or 9 moon cycles) The sun is closest to earth on January 2nd, 6 days away. The higher lunar declinations bring about earthquakes of greater magnitudes, which is around this time, and also perigees are closer and apogees further away than usual - today's apogee at 406487km is the second furthest away for the year. The next apogee of 406442km of Jan 24th will again be the second furthest away for the (2005)year. So Jan 23rd-25th with its FM+A+N.dec looks like a time for another such large earthquake, possibly in the Pacific this time.

The coming perigee of January 10th will be the closest the Moon has come to Earth since March 1993 and won't be significantly bettered until 2016. That perigees are now occurring in the southern hemisphere indicates that plates will be loosened here with every sweep of the moon, possibly awaiting a final trigger. In my almanac maps I notice a tropical cyclone coming down from the north in the last week of January.

A tsunami down here is a possibility. Neville Gibb points out that on January 10th the new moon and Perigee are only 2 hrs apart and the southern declination only 24 hrs before that.
It is not without precedent. From the GNS files, on the evening of 17 May 1947 (Perigee 22, NM 21), following a very minor offshore earthquake, a tsunami hit a stretch of North Island coastline between Tolaga Bay and Wairoa. At its maximum, north of Gisborne, the
tsunami was about 6 metres high. This tsunami was the second to hit this stretch of coastline in that year - an earlier and higher tsunami occurred less than two months before, on March 26th (Perigee 30, NM 23). Scientists have suggested that both of these tsunami may have been produced by eruptions from offshore ³mud volcanoes².

On 23 January 1855 (Perigee 19, NM 18), New Zealandıs largest historical earthquake, a magnitude 8.2 quake centred near Wellington and the Wairarapa, caused a large tsunami in Cook Strait. It destroyed sheds that were more than 8 metres above the sea at Te Kopi, and almost swept away a sailor and his family camped on the beach at Palliser Bay. The tsunami deposited fish well above the high tide mark from Palliser Bay to Otaki. A dinghy pulled up
on the sand at Evans Bay was swept two-thirds of the way across the low sandy isthmus towards the sea. The waves were probably about 4 metres high at Evanıs Bay and about 2-3 metres high near where Wellingtonıs central business district now stands.

Why the cooler weather?
Cooler current temperatures are the result of two main lunar things. As well as the phase cycle the moon has others, the two main cycles called perigee/apogee and declination. Perigee/apogee is when the moon comes closer to earth every 27 days and declination is when the moon goes from N to S also on a 27-day beat. The point on earth closest to the moon when it comes closer every 27 days varies between hemispheres, so that every month for about 3 years it comes closer to the NH and then it comes closer to equatorial regions for a couple of years and then closer to SH countries for another couple of years, so it drifts up and down across the equator, which can really only be seen from space with a time lapse camera or else measured mathematically. At the moment it's well and truly in the SH at perigee time, when it comes closest, the last time being Dec 13 and the next being January 10. On Dec 13 it was the 3rd closest for all of 2004 and in January 10 it will be THE closest for 2005. But it ALSO happens to be the southernmost point on those dates for 17 YEARS. Because the moon was in the southern hemisphere for most of December the month was generally cooler. January should be warmer because the sun is closest to earth during this month. But the moon will again be at southern declination mid-January.

What will these declinations mean for NZ?
Over the next few months, close perigees will accompany southern declinations, cooling down the season. In coming months the moon reaches the southern declination on January 9 and Feb 6, and will be dragging polar air northwards over the country, bringing cooler temperatures again. This season, though, these dates are also around exceptionally CLOSE perigees, being on the 13 Dec the third closest for 2004, on 10 January the closest for 2005, and on the 8 February the fourth closest for 2005 , meaning that the airtide goes "out" more at these times and when the moon sets, the air height above the horizon lowers that much more allowing the cold of space to come closer to Earth. The southernmost point is getting further and further south and will soon reach its peak of this in Feb 2006, called the 'major standstill' time, and this happens about every 19 years. The last time was around 1987. This means that southern declinations will continue to be cooling factors in summers to come. So for this summer the temperature is going to be a mixed bag with warmer periods likely in the end of December, the first few days of January and the second and third weeks of February.

10-day NZ forecast, extracted from Almanacs 2004 and 2005
Allow 24 hr error.
December
28th-29th: North Island mainly fine in all districts, South Island showery on West Coast, mostly dry elsewhere. By 29th, scattered rain likely from Taranaki to Buller. Fine in most E districts but rain brewing for far north and far south. N wind in N Is., W wind over S Is.

30th-31st: Unsettled weather coming to most districts. Gisborne and N Otago mainly fine but some heavy falls a possibility in W of both islands, central plateau northwards and Te Anau. N winds over N and central NZ, W winds in S. By 31st, a moist N airflow should cover the N Is. while W winds develop over the S Is. Rain over all of NZ but more scattered E of the main ranges.

JANUARY
1st:   S Is. more rain amounts than N Is. Showers in the N and W of the N Is, but becoming fine in the E Gisborne to Wellington. Rain in W and S of S Is.

2nd - 3rd: More rain in S Is. than N Is. Mainly fine in the N of the N Is. and in the E from Gisborne to N Otago.

4th-5th: Rain easing in both islands. For the N Is; fine apart from isolated showers in the W and about the central high country. S Is. rain easing.

6th-8th: In S Is. more rain amounts than N Is. At first, fine in the N of the N Is. and the E of both islands as far as S Cant. Showers developing in W districts from Waitomo to Wellington. Over S Is, showers building in W, E and S. Heavy on W coast.

9th: Overall, showers easing both islands. Over the N Is; W winds at first with showers about and W of the ranges. A change to S winds and showers spreading N in the afternoon and evening. Over S Is, showers easing in Otago, rest still isolated showers.


January for Auckland
A fairly dry month is likely with the total rain count much less than the January average. About 8 rain days are expected, most rain in western suburbs during the first week, around the 18th and during the last week; but in eastern suburbs about the 4th, 8th-10th and also in the last week. Heavier falls could be in Waiheke on the 10th and 29th, and Pt Chevalier on the 29th. Altogether, the city can expect about 28 days with 5 or more hours of sunshine, which is more than the January norm. Although temperatures overall should be above average they will swing between very warm and unseasonably cool. The month should start off with warmer temperatures and about four days of scattered falls mixed with fine spells. Then expect a fortnight of cooler conditions but mostly dry across the city. Temperatures should rise again in the last week with unsettled weather in the last few days, coming mostly from the northeast. Stronger winds can be expected in some exposed places around 4th, 9th, 18th and 30th.

January for Coromandel
The month should start out dry and warm. On the west side, expect passing showers about the 4th and 8th but mostly dry weather on the east until the 18th. Thames should be mainly dry from 9th-24th. Most of Whitianga's rain should be about 18th/19th, 22nd/23rd and 28th. Overall for January, the east side of the peninsular should end up with more rain than the west side. The heaviest rainfalls this month could be in Whitianga about the 19th and 23rd, and in Coromandel around the 31st. The first few days of January could serve warm temperatures, but from January 10th to the end of the month may be cooler. The highest tides will be between the 12th - 14th.

January for Canterbury
Expect warmer temperatures in the last week of December, with passing showers on New Years Eve but clearing just in time for the New Year. The first week should be dry, with a few isolated showers in the second week. January could be very dry for Ashburton, with less than 15mm of rain expected. Most rain should be around 8th/9th and in the last few days. Only about 4 rain days and no heavy falls are anticipated, and with around 22 days of sunshine the sunshine hours for the month should well exceed the average, perhaps by 25%. However temperatures during January are likely to seesaw, swinging right down about the 9th and right up again about the 22nd, but overall, January should be warmer than the norm. And if inviting relatives and friends, for all South Island districts January 10th-20th should be sunniest if a little cool.


Summary notes for NZ for the next two months
January
Heavy rain: At end of January for many areas, including BoP, S Waikato, New Plymouth, and Palmerston North.
Rain amounts: January should be drier-than-normal for both islands with about a third less rain in the North Is. than in the South Is. May be very dry in some regions. Parts of the Waikato may not see any significant rain until about January 23. The usual dilemma of whether to feed hay or silage to stock and face dramatic shortages in winter could again arise for farmers. Recent low pasture growth may not have helped. Scrub fire risk could also be high as well as water shortages in regional towns. Some east Waikato farms may not have had rain since last November. For the N Is. the least rain could be around the 11th and 12th, and the most rain at or near 29th-31st. For the S Is., the least rain period will probably be around the 11th-19th, with the wettest time in the first and last weeks.
Temps: For all, warmer month than average. The first two weeks of January may see an upward temperature swing.
Winds: NWs could be persistent in January.

February
Heavy rain: In the1st week in the lower N Is., in Queenstown at the beginning, middle and at end of February, and in Canterbury at end of the month.
Rain amounts: February may be drier than average for the North but wetter for the South Is. For the N Is. the least rain may be around the 19th-21st, and the most rain at or near 1st and 25th. For the S Is., the least rain period may be around the 8th, with the wettest dates being the 1st, 7th and 13th. Over the S Is. it could be wet in Canterbury and Otago, with rainfalls possibly near twice the average. The hydrolakes should see double the rainfall. The West Coast may also be wetter.
Temps: A temp swing may be during Feb 14th-25th, and especially 17-21. So the third week in February could see unseasonably hot temperatures. It may also be a dry month in Bay of Plenty and from Waikato to Northland. Some farmers in these regions may note near-drought conditions.
Winds: SWs should prevail over the North Is while NWs may predominate over the south of NZ.

Summer holiday notes
New Years Eve
rain expected to dampen celebrations across NZ on December 31st. However most districts should have clear skies again on New Years day.

January
The first half of January and the second half of February could see very warm temperatures. If holidaying in Northland, avoid an expected rain spell in the third week in January. If the South Island beckons in January, anytime between the 10th-20th should be sunniest.

February
Northland could be wet during the first week in February so the second and third weeks in February may be the best time to go there. The most sunshine in Hawkes Bay, Wellington, or Christchurch should be during the second week in February, whilst the third week in February could be the best time to visit Queenstown. At the end of February Christchurch may see some heavy rain.

2005 in NZ
An expected rain disaster about mid-March and another about April 20th looks likely to affect the lower North Island. Overall for 2005, the whole country looks likely to receive 4% less rain than the average. The North Island will probably be about 13% drier than its annual norm whilst the South Island is likely to be about 7% wetter. Both islands should be sl-warmer.
NZ is likely to see droughts between 2005-7. These, if the pattern proves correct, should be in Bay of Plenty in 2005, Canterbury in 2006, and Timaru southward for the first part of 2007. We should see milder winters in the next couple of years, returning to more extreme winters around 2014-16.

In terms of months,
Jan: warm and dry for both islands
Feb: drier for N is, wet for S Is, sl-wrmer for both.
Mar: wetter and warmer for N Is, wetter and cooler for S Is.
Apr: wetter for lower N Is and upper S Is, warmer for both islands
May: drier for N Is, wetter for S Is, warmer for both
June: drier for N Is, wetter for S Is, warmer for both
July: drier and warmer for both
Aug: drier and warmer for both
Sept: wetter for both, espec upper N Is, sl-warmer for N Is, sl-cooler for S Is.
Oct: drier for N Is, wetter for S Is, sl-warmer for N Is, sl-clr for S Is
Nov: av for N Is, drier for S is, sl-wrmr for N Is, wrmr for S Is
Dec: wetter for N Is, drier for S Is, sl-clr for N Is, sl-wmr for S Is.


NZ Disasters Not Wished For But Expected
Coromandel: heavy rain in first week of February
Bay of Plenty: Floods in March around 12, 19, 30, also April, May, Nov, Dec
Taranaki: heavy rain April 10, 12, 30
Hawkes Bay: heavy falls mid and end March
Lower North Is: heavy rain 1st wk Feb, mid March, 3rd week in April, 2nd week in May
Wellington: heavier rain last wk in May, also in June
Canterbury: heavy rain at or near end of Feb
Dunedin: heavy rain around March 19
Invercargill: heavy rain in 1st wk in May
Queenstown: heavy rain during Feb(beginning, mid, and at end) and April(2nd wk)


Australia weather coming
Townsville: scattered light falls until what looks like big amounts mid January.
Bourke could get some rain around next March 12. After that the next expected significant amount could be June 29th through to July 4th.
Sydney: January should be especially dry, with very warm days in the first two weeks of January and the last half of February.
Melbourne; January: dry first week, rain second, dry rest of the month. February: little or no rain all month. Stormy conditions April 9th.
Brisbane: I expect a storm mid January, and a possible storm system next midMarch.
Darwin: unsettled weather during the second half of January and the second week of February, four lots of rain in March, some rain in the last week in April and possibly more in the last week in May.
Cairns may see cyclonic systems after New moons and full moons, especially during February.
Perth: through to next March: very little rain.
Adelaide: Dec 20 to second week in April should be mostly dry. Most intense heat should be in first two weeks of January and third and fourth weeks of Feb, then suddenly losing that intense summer heat about Feb 27. Next year's rain should be about 8% less than this year's total, but 2006 and 2007 should be about the same annual total as 2004.


Important Events in Australia
2005 Sydney Royal Easter Show(March 18-31)
Apart from being somewhat cloudy on 20th, from 18th-31st should be mostly sunny in Sydney. 3 or 4 days may see rain, these being odd morning showers and cloud on 20th, another odd shower on or near the 24th, more showers on the 30th, with an easing off by the 31st, the 29th/30th being the only problem time. The 14-day event should see 10 sunny days with no rain in sight.


MOON IN JANUARY
3rd: Crossing equator
4th: Last Q
9th: Southern declination
10th: Perigee #1
11th: New moon
16th: Crossing equator
17th: 1st Q
23rd: Northern declination
24th: Apogee
25th: Full moon
30th: Crossing equator


Cyclone season in NZ
This coming season, heavy rainfalls for Fiji that might be associated with cyclonic systems are likely in late Jan, second half of Feb, end of Feb, late March, and mid April. The January and February systems especially should be powerful enough to affect NZ.

Solar System Barycentre
Notes from Carl Smith on research by Dr Theodor Landscheidt that shows that the combined gravitional effects of the planets on the Sun do produce climate changes here on the Earth. The moon "belongs" more to the sun than the earth, and is pulled by the sun along the ecliptic just as is the Earth. The moon therefore reflects changes on the sun, and being closest to us affects the oceans, winds and weather. The Sun affects the moon and the planets, the latter which in turn affect the Sun. The centre of gravity of the solar system or Solar System Barycentre(SSB) is the axis and the one focus around which all bodies in our solar system move. Because each planet is moving at a different speed, the amount the Sun is displaced from the barycentre is continually changing, making a quite complex orbital looping motion around it. Changes in phase from outwards to inwards and vice-versa also produce increases in solar activity that effect Earth climate cycles.
The combined gravitational effects of the planets on the Sun at any one time can be tracked by plotting the relationship between the centre of the Sun and the SSB; the gravitational centre of the Solar System. The motion of the SSB is complex, with cycles ranging from 9 years to 179 years, with other longer term cycles and shorter term wobbles. When the change of phase of several of these cycles coincide closely in time, changes in prevailing climate conditions on the Earth tend to occur, locking in a new pattern.
There are correspondences between the interaction of the Sun with the SSB with changes in solar energy output that effect the amount of solar energy received by the Earth. The length and amplitude of the 9 to 13 year sunspot cycle (av ~11 years) is related to this interaction, and smoothed mean global temperatures vary by approx 2.6C during a sunspot cycle. Bursts of extra solar energy amount to an average 35.8 year solar cycle.
Whenever the SSB passes though the surface of the Sun, solar activity increases markedly on the opposite side of the Sun to the SSB, which causes very intense solar flares, and if the Earth is on same side of the Sun as the flares, thunderstorm activity on the Earth becomes more severe for a while and global temperatures rise. Changes in phase from outwards to inwards and vice-versa also produce increases in solar activity that effect Earth climate cycles.
According to NASA the SSB reached its last minimum on October 26, 2004 and we have now entered a period which could see the longer-term mean global temperature falling until around 2030, albeit with shorter-term heating and cooling cycles embedded. Rather than being threatened by an impending global warming catastrophe, some astronomers claim we are in effect approaching the next mini-ice age. This suggests we be prepared for a trend of increasingly cooler winters for some time to come. Unless lake levels are artificially manipulated, apart from 2006 which does look like an exceptionally dry year, there should be no power crises in other coming years.

Dolphin strandings
In the last ezine the theory was put forward that whales and dolphins beach themselves only at certain times, these being moon cycle peaks. See full article at
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=32
The prediction was made that December 26 would be the next beaching date.
(This date was posted as part of the last ezine. The prediction was also mentioned live on Radio 2GB Sydney on Dec 8 and on NZ TV1 Breakfast in a live interview with Paul Henry and Alison Mau on Dec 17. News has just come in - ..they have beached on the day predicted.. see http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200412/s1273160.htm
http://www.wdcs.org.au/info_details.php?select=1087378393
in Tasmania
"Tuesday 28th December 2004
7:15 08 pm
Mass stranding of sperm whales on Tasmanian coast
The life of the only sperm whale to survive a mass stranding of 5 whales hangs in the balance as a team rushes to rescue the whale. AAP reports that the 14m sperm whale beached itself yesterday on Fraser Flats, inside Macquarie Harbour, at Strahan on Tasmania's west coast. Four other whales were found dead early today on nearby Ocean Beach.."

And also in NZ
http://www.wdcs.org.au/info_details.php?select=1074605400
Tuesday 28th December 2004
8:51 21 pm
Pygmy sperm whale calf stranded on a North Island beach.
The calf, its mother and two scamperdown beaked whales were found dead or stranded some distance apart - 26km - on Ripiro Beach north of Auckland (on NZ's west coast). The mother was found dead, but the calf was alive. It managed to refloat itself but was restranded on the next tide. The calf was put down as it was unable to survive on its own.

Next possible stranding dates:
January 10, 20, 22
February 6, 19
March 6, 17


Predict Weather (Almanac) 2005
The gift of the future. Random House Publishers Ltd are this year publishing the 2005 edition, available now from all Paper Plus and Whitcoulls shops. 350 pages of daily isobaric maps for next year, extended daily descriptions of weather for 57 NZ towns, daily rain and sunshine tables, plus other useful inventories and summaries of monthly rain trends for most large towns up to 2009. Many farmers find this book useful for planning well ahead. Cost: $45. Also available by mail order from PWL, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland.


CONTACT
Editor: ph 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696 e-mail enqui-@predictweather.com     Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information printed. This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) PWL 2004   http://www.predictweather.com        


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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT color=#ff0000 size=5>Weather By The
Moon<BR></FONT> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>WEATHER EZINE December 29,
2004<BR></FONT>Current Moon<BR>Earthquake in Jakarta <BR>Why the cooler
weather?<BR>What will these declinations mean for NZ? <BR>10-day NZ
forecast<BR>January for Auckland <BR>January for Coromandel <BR>January for
Canterbury<BR>Summary notes for NZ for the next three months  <BR>Christmas
and summer notes<BR>White Christmas in other hemisphere<BR>2005 in NZ <BR>NZ
disasters expected<BR>Australia weather coming<BR>Moon in January <BR>Cyclone
season in NZ<BR>Dolphin Strandings on cue<BR>Solar System barycentre<BR>Contact
<BR><BR><FONT color=#0000ff>Current Moon</FONT> <BR>In the week coming up;
<BR>Monday December 27th: northern declination, full moon.<BR>Tuesday December
28th; apogee<BR>Monday January 3rd: crossing equator heading south<BR>Tuesday
January 4th: Last quarter<BR> <BR>After the full moon of the 27th NEs have,
as usual, clicked in, and the northerly systems generated from the moon in
northerly position will bring unsettled weather across the country. Severe
weather warnings have already been posted. This weather should last only until
the 31st and then blow off. Dolphins have stranded in Tasmania and NZ on the day
of northern declination, again as usual.<BR> <BR><FONT
color=#0000ff>Earthquake in Jakarta</FONT><BR>This terrifying (full moon)
earthquake was within a day of apogee. Most earthquakes do occur around new or
full moons, and near midnight, midday or early morning. The epicentre of this
one seems to have occurred 45 mins after moonset and15 mins after sunrise, with
the sun and moon on the horizon at opposite sides of the sky. (The McQuarrie
Island earthquake occurred about 35mins before MS). Although the earthquake was
at the same moontimes that many large earthquakes have occurred in the past,
(such as the 1931 Napier earthquake which was also at FM, ND and apogee/perigee)
the giant tsunami has come about because the eruption was only 7 metres below
the earth's surface.<BR><BR>It was the world's biggest for 40 years, since 1964
when Prince William Sound was hit with a 9.2. Also there was another huge
same-sized earthquake just slightly south of this (Indonesian)one in 1833 (9 x
19 years, or 9 moon cycles) The sun is closest to earth on January 2nd, 6 days
away. The higher lunar declinations bring about earthquakes of greater
magnitudes, which is around this time, and also perigees are closer and apogees
further away than usual - today's apogee at 406487km is the second furthest away
for the year. The next apogee of 406442km of Jan 24th will again be the second
furthest away for the (2005)year. So Jan 23rd-25th with its FM+A+N.dec looks
like a time for another such large earthquake, possibly in the Pacific this
time. <BR><BR>The coming perigee of January 10th will be the closest the Moon
has come to Earth since March 1993 and won't be significantly bettered until
2016. That perigees are now occurring in the southern hemisphere indicates that
plates will be loosened here with every sweep of the moon, possibly awaiting a
final trigger. In my almanac maps I notice a tropical cyclone coming down from
the north in the last week of January. <BR> <BR><STRONG>A tsunami down here
is a possibility</STRONG>. Neville Gibb points out that on January 10th the new
moon and Perigee are only 2 hrs apart and the southern declination only 24 hrs
before that.<BR>It is not without precedent. From the GNS files, on the evening
of 17 May 1947 (Perigee 22, NM 21), following a very minor offshore earthquake,
a tsunami hit a stretch of North Island coastline between Tolaga Bay and Wairoa.
At its maximum, north of Gisborne, the<BR>tsunami was about 6 metres high. This
tsunami was the second to hit this stretch of coastline in that year - an
earlier and higher tsunami occurred less than two months before, on March 26th
(Perigee 30, NM 23). Scientists have suggested that both of these tsunami may
have been produced by eruptions from offshore ³mud volcanoes². <BR><BR>On 23
January 1855 (Perigee 19, NM 18), New Zealandıs largest historical earthquake, a
magnitude 8.2 quake centred near Wellington and the Wairarapa, caused a large
tsunami in Cook Strait. It destroyed sheds that were more than 8 metres above
the sea at Te Kopi, and almost swept away a sailor and his family camped on the
beach at Palliser Bay. The tsunami deposited fish well above the high tide mark
from Palliser Bay to Otaki. A dinghy pulled up<BR>on the sand at Evans Bay was
swept two-thirds of the way across the low sandy isthmus towards the sea. The
waves were probably about 4 metres high at Evanıs Bay and about 2-3 metres high
near where Wellingtonıs central business district now stands. <BR><BR><FONT
color=#0000ff>Why the cooler weather?<BR></FONT>Cooler current temperatures are
the result of two main lunar things. As well as the phase cycle the moon has
others, the two main cycles called perigee/apogee and declination.
Perigee/apogee is when the moon comes closer to earth every 27 days and
declination is when the moon goes from N to S also on a 27-day beat. The point
on earth closest to the moon when it comes closer every 27 days varies between
hemispheres, so that every month for about 3 years it comes closer to the NH and
then it comes closer to equatorial regions for a couple of years and then closer
to SH countries for another couple of years, so it drifts up and down across the
equator, which can really only be seen from space with a time lapse camera or
else measured mathematically. At the moment it's well and truly in the SH at
perigee time, when it comes closest, the last time being Dec 13 and the next
being January 10. On Dec 13 it was the 3rd closest for all of 2004 and in
January 10 it will be THE closest for 2005. But it ALSO happens to be the
southernmost point on those dates for 17 YEARS. Because the moon was in the
southern hemisphere for most of December the month was generally cooler. January
should be warmer because the sun is closest to earth during this month. But the
moon will again be at southern declination mid-January. <BR><BR><FONT
color=#0000ff>What will these declinations mean for NZ? <BR></FONT>Over the next
few months, close perigees will accompany southern declinations, cooling down
the season. In coming months the moon reaches the southern declination on
January 9 and Feb 6, and will be dragging polar air northwards over the country,
bringing cooler temperatures again. This season, though, these dates are also
around exceptionally CLOSE perigees, being on the 13 Dec the third closest for
2004, on 10 January the closest for 2005, and on the 8 February the fourth
closest for 2005 , meaning that the airtide goes "out" more at these times and
when the moon sets, the air height above the horizon lowers that much more
allowing the cold of space to come closer to Earth. The southernmost point is
getting further and further south and will soon reach its peak of this in Feb
2006, called the 'major standstill' time, and this happens about every 19 years.
The last time was around 1987. This means that southern declinations will
continue to be cooling factors in summers to come. So for this summer the
temperature is going to be a mixed bag with warmer periods likely in the end of
December, the first few days of January and the second and third weeks of
February. <BR> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>10-day NZ forecast, extracted from
Almanacs 2004 and 2005</FONT><BR>Allow 24 hr error.
<BR>December<BR>28th-29th:  North Island mainly fine in all districts,
South Island showery on West Coast, mostly dry elsewhere. By 29th, scattered
rain likely from Taranaki to Buller. Fine in most E districts but rain brewing
for far north and far south. N wind in N Is., W wind over S
Is.<BR> <BR>30th-31st:  Unsettled weather coming to most districts.
Gisborne and N Otago mainly fine but some heavy falls a possibility in W of both
islands, central plateau northwards and Te Anau. N winds over N and central NZ,
W winds in S. By 31st, a moist N airflow should cover the N Is. while W winds
develop over the S Is. Rain over all of NZ but more scattered E of the main
ranges.<BR><BR>JANUARY<BR>1st:   S Is. more rain amounts than N Is.
Showers in the N and W of the N Is, but becoming fine in the E Gisborne to
Wellington.  Rain in W and S of S Is.<BR> <BR>2nd - 3rd:  More
rain in S Is. than N Is. Mainly fine in the N of the N Is. and in the E from
Gisborne to N Otago. <BR> <BR>4th-5th:  Rain easing in both islands.
For the N Is; fine apart from isolated showers in the W and about the central
high country. S Is. rain easing.<BR> <BR>6th-8th:  In S Is. more rain
amounts than N Is. At first, fine in the N of the N Is. and the E of both
islands as far as S Cant.  Showers developing in W districts from Waitomo
to Wellington. Over S Is, showers building in W, E and S. Heavy on W
coast.<BR> <BR>9th: Overall, showers easing both islands. Over the N Is; W
winds at first with showers about and W of the ranges. A change to S winds and
showers spreading N in the afternoon and evening. Over S Is, showers easing in
Otago, rest still isolated showers.<BR><BR><BR><FONT color=#0000ff>January for
Auckland <BR></FONT>A fairly dry month is likely with the total rain count much
less than the January average. About 8 rain days are expected, most rain in
western suburbs during the first week, around the 18th and during the last week;
but in eastern suburbs about the 4th, 8th-10th and also in the last week.
Heavier falls could be in Waiheke on the 10th and 29th, and Pt Chevalier on the
29th. Altogether, the city can expect about 28 days with 5 or more hours of
sunshine, which is more than the January norm. Although temperatures overall
should be above average they will swing between very warm and unseasonably cool.
The month should start off with warmer temperatures and about four days of
scattered falls mixed with fine spells. Then expect a fortnight of cooler
conditions but mostly dry across the city. Temperatures should rise again in the
last week with unsettled weather in the last few days, coming mostly from the
northeast. Stronger winds can be expected in some exposed places around 4th,
9th, 18th and 30th.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR><FONT color=#0000ff>January for Coromandel
<BR></FONT>The month should start out dry and warm. On the west side, expect
passing showers about the 4th and 8th but mostly dry weather on the east until
the 18th.  Thames should be mainly dry from 9th-24th. Most of Whitianga’s
rain should be about 18th/19th, 22nd/23rd and 28th. Overall for January, the
east side of the peninsular should end up with more rain than the west
side.  The heaviest rainfalls this month could be in Whitianga about the
19th and 23rd, and in Coromandel around the 31st. The first few days of January
could serve warm temperatures, but from January 10th to the end of the month may
be cooler. The highest tides will be between the 12th - 14th.
<BR> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>January for Canterbury<BR></FONT>Expect warmer
temperatures in the last week of December, with passing showers on New Years Eve
but clearing just in time for the New Year. The first week should be dry, with a
few isolated showers in the second week. January could be very dry for
Ashburton, with less than 15mm of rain expected. Most rain should be around
8th/9th and in the last few days. Only about 4 rain days and no heavy falls are
anticipated, and with around 22 days of sunshine the sunshine hours for the
month should well exceed the average, perhaps by 25%. However temperatures
during January are likely to seesaw, swinging right down about the 9th and right
up again about the 22nd, but overall, January should be warmer than the norm.
And if inviting relatives and friends, for all South Island districts January
10th-20th should be sunniest if a little cool. <BR> <BR><BR><FONT
color=#0000ff>Summary notes for NZ for the next two months</FONT>
<BR>January<BR>Heavy rain: At end of January for many areas, including BoP, S
Waikato, New Plymouth, and Palmerston North. <BR>Rain amounts: January should be
drier-than-normal for both islands with about a third less rain in the North Is.
than in the South Is. May be very dry in some regions. Parts of the Waikato may
not see any significant rain until about January 23. The usual dilemma of
whether to feed hay or silage to stock and face dramatic shortages in winter
could again arise for farmers. Recent low pasture growth may not have helped.
Scrub fire risk could also be high as well as water shortages in regional towns.
Some east Waikato farms may not have had rain since last November. For the N Is.
the least rain could be around the 11th and 12th, and the most rain  at or
near 29th-31st. For the S Is., the least rain period will probably be around the
11th-19th, with the wettest time in the first and last weeks.<BR>Temps: For all,
warmer month than average. The first two weeks of January may see an upward
temperature swing. <BR>Winds: NWs could be persistent in
January.<BR> <BR>February<BR>Heavy rain: In the1st week in the lower N Is.,
in Queenstown at the beginning, middle and at end of February, and in Canterbury
at end of the month. <BR>Rain amounts: February may be drier than average for
the North but wetter for the South Is. For the N Is. the least rain may be
around the 19th-21st, and the most rain at or near 1st and 25th. For the S Is.,
the least rain period may be around the 8th, with the wettest dates being the
1st, 7th and 13th. Over the S Is. it could be wet in Canterbury and Otago, with
rainfalls possibly near twice the average. The hydrolakes should see double the
rainfall. The West Coast may also be wetter.<BR>Temps: A temp swing may be
during Feb 14th-25th, and especially 17-21. So the third week in February could
see unseasonably hot temperatures. It may also be a dry month in Bay of Plenty
and from Waikato to Northland. Some farmers in these regions may note
near-drought conditions. <BR>Winds: SWs should prevail over the North Is while
NWs may predominate over the south of NZ. <BR> <BR><FONT
color=#0000ff>Summer holiday notes<BR></FONT>New Years Eve <BR>rain expected to
dampen celebrations across NZ on December 31st. However most districts should
have clear skies again on New Years day. <BR> <BR>January<BR>The first half
of January and the second half of February could see very warm temperatures. If
holidaying in Northland, avoid an expected rain spell in the third week in
January.  If the South Island beckons in January, anytime between the
10th-20th should be sunniest. <BR> <BR>February<BR>Northland could be wet
during the first week in February so the second and third weeks in February may
be the best time to go there. The most sunshine in Hawkes Bay, Wellington, or
Christchurch should be during the second week in February, whilst the third week
in February could be the best time to visit Queenstown. At the end of February
Christchurch may see some heavy rain.<BR> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>2005 in
NZ</FONT> <BR>An expected rain disaster about mid-March and another about April
20th looks likely to affect the lower North Island. Overall for 2005, the whole
country looks likely to receive 4% less rain than the average. The North Island
will probably be about 13% drier than its annual norm whilst the South Island is
likely to be about 7% wetter. Both islands should be sl-warmer.<BR>NZ is likely
to see droughts between 2005-7. These, if the pattern proves correct, should be
in Bay of Plenty in 2005, Canterbury in 2006, and Timaru southward for the first
part of 2007. We should see milder winters in the next couple of years,
returning to more extreme winters around 2014-16.<BR><BR>In terms of months,
<BR>Jan: warm and dry for both islands<BR>Feb: drier for N is, wet for S Is,
sl-wrmer for both.<BR>Mar: wetter and warmer for N Is, wetter and cooler for S
Is.<BR>Apr: wetter for lower N Is and upper S Is, warmer for both
islands<BR>May: drier for N Is, wetter for S Is, warmer for both<BR>June: drier
for N Is, wetter for S Is, warmer for both<BR>July: drier and warmer for
both<BR>Aug: drier and warmer for both<BR>Sept: wetter for both, espec upper N
Is, sl-warmer for N Is, sl-cooler for S Is.<BR>Oct: drier for N Is, wetter for S
Is, sl-warmer for N Is, sl-clr for S Is<BR>Nov: av for N Is, drier for S is,
sl-wrmr for N Is, wrmr for S Is<BR>Dec: wetter for N Is, drier for S Is, sl-clr
for N Is, sl-wmr for S Is.<BR><BR> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>NZ Disasters Not
Wished For But Expected</FONT><BR>Coromandel: heavy rain in first week of
February<BR>Bay of Plenty: Floods in March around 12, 19, 30, also April, May,
Nov, Dec<BR>Taranaki: heavy rain April 10, 12, 30<BR>Hawkes Bay: heavy falls mid
and end March<BR>Lower North Is: heavy rain 1st wk Feb, mid March, 3rd week in
April, 2nd week in May<BR>Wellington: heavier rain last wk in May, also in
June<BR>Canterbury: heavy rain at or near end of Feb<BR>Dunedin: heavy rain
around March 19<BR>Invercargill: heavy rain in 1st wk in May<BR>Queenstown:
heavy rain during Feb(beginning, mid, and at end) and April(2nd
wk)<BR><BR> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>Australia weather
coming</FONT><BR>Townsville: scattered light falls until what looks like big
amounts mid January.<BR>Bourke could get some rain around next March 12. After
that the next expected significant amount could be June 29th through to July
4th. <BR>Sydney: January should be especially dry, with very warm days in the
first two weeks of January and the last half of February.<BR>Melbourne; January:
dry first week, rain second, dry rest of the month. February: little or no rain
all month. Stormy conditions April 9th.<BR>Brisbane: I expect a storm mid
January, and a possible storm system next midMarch.<BR>Darwin: unsettled weather
during the second half of January and the second week of February, four lots of
rain in March, some rain in the last week in April and possibly more in the last
week in May. <BR>Cairns may see cyclonic systems after New moons and full moons,
especially during February.<BR>Perth:  through to next March: very little
rain.<BR>Adelaide: Dec 20 to second week in April should be mostly dry. Most
intense heat should be in first two weeks of January and third and fourth weeks
of Feb, then suddenly losing that intense summer heat about Feb 27. Next year's
rain should be about 8% less than this year's total, but 2006 and 2007 should be
about the same annual total as 2004.<BR><BR><BR>Important Events in
Australia<BR>2005 Sydney Royal Easter Show(March 18-31)<BR>Apart from being
somewhat cloudy on 20th, from 18th-31st should be mostly sunny in Sydney. 3 or 4
days may see rain, these being odd morning showers and cloud on 20th, 
another odd shower on or near the 24th, more showers on the 30th, with an easing
off by the 31st,  the 29th/30th being the only problem time. The 14-day
event should see 10 sunny days with no rain in sight.<BR><BR><BR><FONT
color=#0000ff>MOON IN JANUARY</FONT><BR>3rd: Crossing equator<BR>4th: Last
Q<BR>9th: Southern declination<BR>10th: Perigee #1 <BR>11th: New moon<BR>16th:
Crossing equator<BR>17th: 1st Q<BR>23rd: Northern declination<BR>24th:
Apogee<BR>25th: Full moon<BR>30th: Crossing equator<BR><BR><BR><FONT
color=#0000ff>Cyclone season in NZ <BR></FONT>This coming season, heavy
rainfalls for Fiji that might be associated with cyclonic systems are likely in
late Jan, second half of Feb, end of Feb, late March, and mid April. The January
and February systems especially should be powerful enough to affect NZ.
<BR> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>Solar System Barycentre</FONT><BR>Notes from
Carl Smith on research by Dr Theodor Landscheidt that shows that the combined
gravitional effects of the planets on the Sun do produce climate changes here on
the Earth. The moon "belongs" more to the sun than the earth, and is pulled by
the sun along the ecliptic just as is the Earth. The moon therefore reflects
changes on the sun, and being closest to us affects the oceans, winds and
weather. The Sun affects the moon and the planets, the latter which in turn
affect the Sun. The centre of gravity of the solar system or Solar System
Barycentre(SSB) is the axis and the one focus around which all bodies in our
solar system move. Because each planet is moving at a different speed, the
amount the Sun is displaced from the barycentre is continually changing, making
a quite complex orbital looping motion around it. Changes in phase from outwards
to inwards and vice-versa also produce increases in solar activity that effect
Earth climate cycles. <BR>The combined gravitational effects of the planets on
the Sun at any one time can be tracked by plotting the relationship between the
centre of the Sun and the SSB; the gravitational centre of the Solar System. The
motion of the SSB is complex, with cycles ranging from 9 years to 179 years,
with other longer term cycles and shorter term wobbles. When the change of phase
of several of these cycles coincide closely in time, changes in prevailing
climate conditions on the Earth tend to occur, locking in a new
pattern.<BR>There are correspondences between the interaction of the Sun with
the SSB with changes in solar energy output that effect the amount of solar
energy received by the Earth. The length and amplitude of the 9 to 13 year
sunspot cycle (av ~11 years) is related to this interaction, and smoothed mean
global temperatures vary by approx 2.6C during a sunspot cycle. Bursts of extra
solar energy amount to an average 35.8 year solar cycle. <BR>Whenever the SSB
passes though the surface of the Sun, solar activity increases markedly on the
opposite side of the Sun to the SSB, which causes very intense solar flares, and
if the Earth is on same side of the Sun as the flares, thunderstorm activity on
the Earth becomes more severe for a while and global temperatures rise. Changes
in phase from outwards to inwards and vice-versa also produce increases in solar
activity that effect Earth climate cycles. <BR>According to NASA the SSB reached
its last minimum on October 26, 2004 and we have now entered a period which
could see the longer-term mean global temperature falling until around 2030,
albeit with shorter-term heating and cooling cycles embedded. Rather than being
threatened by an impending global warming catastrophe, some astronomers claim we
are in effect approaching the next mini-ice age. This suggests we be prepared
for a trend of increasingly cooler winters for some time to come. Unless lake
levels are artificially manipulated, apart from 2006 which does look like an
exceptionally dry year, there should be no power crises in other coming
years.<BR><BR><FONT color=#0000ff>Dolphin strandings</FONT><BR>In the last ezine
the theory was put forward that whales and dolphins beach themselves only at
certain times, these being moon cycle peaks. See full article at<BR><A
href="http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=32">http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=32</A>
<BR>The prediction was made that December 26 would be the next beaching date.
<BR>(This date was posted as part of the last ezine. The prediction was also
mentioned live on Radio 2GB Sydney on Dec 8 and on NZ TV1 Breakfast in a live
interview with Paul Henry and Alison Mau on Dec 17. News has just come in -
..they have beached on the day predicted.. see <A
href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200412/s1273160.htm">http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200412/s1273160.htm</A>
<BR><A
href="http://www.wdcs.org.au/info_details.php?select=1087378393">http://www.wdcs.org.au/info_details.php?select=1087378393</A>
<BR>in Tasmania<BR>"Tuesday 28th December 2004<BR>7:15 08 pm<BR>Mass stranding
of sperm whales on Tasmanian coast<BR>The life of the only sperm whale to
survive a mass stranding of 5 whales hangs in the balance as a team rushes to
rescue the whale. AAP reports that the 14m sperm whale beached itself yesterday
on Fraser Flats, inside Macquarie Harbour, at Strahan on Tasmania's west coast.
Four other whales were found dead early today on nearby Ocean
Beach.."<BR> <BR>And also in NZ<BR><A
href="http://www.wdcs.org.au/info_details.php?select=1074605400">http://www.wdcs.org.au/info_details.php?select=1074605400</A>
<BR>Tuesday 28th December 2004<BR>8:51 21 pm<BR>Pygmy sperm whale calf stranded
on a North Island beach.<BR>The calf, its mother and two scamperdown beaked
whales were found dead or stranded some distance apart - 26km - on Ripiro Beach
north of Auckland (on NZ's west coast). The mother was found dead, but the calf
was alive. It managed to refloat itself but was restranded on the next tide. The
calf was put down as it was unable to survive on its own.<BR><BR>Next possible
stranding dates:<BR>January 10, 20, 22<BR>February 6, 19<BR>March 6,
17<BR> <BR> <BR><FONT color=#0000ff>Predict Weather (Almanac)
2005</FONT><BR>The gift of the future. Random House Publishers Ltd are this year
publishing the 2005 edition, available now from all Paper Plus and Whitcoulls
shops. 350 pages of daily isobaric maps for next year, extended daily
descriptions of weather for 57 NZ towns, daily rain and sunshine tables, plus
other useful inventories and summaries of monthly rain trends for most large
towns up to 2009. Many farmers find this book useful for planning well ahead.
Cost: $45. Also available by mail order from PWL, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi,
Auckland.<BR><BR><BR><FONT color=#0000ff>CONTACT<BR></FONT>Editor: ph
09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696 e-mail <A
href="mailto:enqui-@predictweather.com">enqui-@predictweather.com</A>
    Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand. No
responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes on the
part of readers as a result of information printed. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested parties
provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of commercial
gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) PWL 2004  
<A href="http://www.predictweather.com">http://www.predictweather.com</A>
      
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