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WEATHER EZINE Sept 22, 2006
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Ken Ring
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Sep 22, 2006 16:12 PDT
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WEATHER EZINE Sept 22, 2006
CURRENT MOON
COMING UP
OZONE SCARE
OCTOBER
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Current Moon
15th: northern declination
22nd: new moon, A, XhS
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Coming up
New moon today and that usually brings westerlies. It's also the equinox
tomorrow and that brings windy conditions. What happens at equinox is
that the sun rises in the NE in the winter and in the SE in the summer
and so it crosses the equator twice a year at what we call equinox time.
If you can imagine a pendulum, the bob increases speed in the middle of
its swing, and that's what the sun does relative to the earth. So when
you get an increase in speed you get an increase in strength, and more
turbulence is caused on the earth's atmosphere by the sun because the
air gets distorted which means the airtide due to the Sun is exaggerated
and that translates into extra winds in some places. Now it just so
happens that the Moon is also crossing the equator today going from N to
S, but whereas the sun crosses the equator twice a year the moon does it
twice a month called the lunar equinox, and this brings stronger winds
too. So we have two factors causing gales and because it's just today
and tomorrow the situation will abate on the weekend. For some reason
astronomers know about equinoctial gales due to the sun acting on air
but they won't tell the meteorologists. And by the same token they know
about the the lunar equinox each month but they keep quiet on that too.
Around new moon time if there is any rain it usually comes at night and
that is what some parts of the country are getting this weekend, in the
NI the central NI skifields and the lower NI and in the SI the top, the
west coast and the far south. But up here in the north we have fine
weather continuing, with the next rain for Auckland expected 28th-3rd of
October which is Thursday next week.
Temperatures will be starting to warm up about Saturday as that warmer
air is brought down by the moon moving southwards. New moon days are
pleasant, not too hot or cold and that's what we're feeling now.
So there's been heavy winds in the SI and they'll be creeping up to
affect Wellington today and on the weekend, they'll be blowing in some
rain, and possibly heavy for the hydrolakes and Qtn and Invercargill.
But the east of the SI should get drying NWs and Ws over the weekend and
some will be reaching galeforce, and those winds will drop about Tuesday
too. So it's good news in the north of the NI, not so good in the N, W
and S of the SI
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Ozone Scare
NZ Herald 1.00pm Friday September 22, 2006
New Zealand will suffer a record "low ozone event" for spring on Sunday,
meaning people could burn even if the weather is cool, climate
scientists are warning. Something to worry about? Forget it. The spring
New moon just doesn't bring hot days unless the moon is at northern
declination, which it isn't. And on only 2 August, NIWA was warning of a
cold summer. "National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
(NIWA) climate scientist Jim Renwick says New Zealand's weather history
shows a cold winter is usually followed by a cold summer. He says on the
basis of history he would not bet on a hot summer".
There seems to be a confusion in the scientists' minds over ozone
amounts and the ozone HOLE. To them a big hole is supposed to cause
extra burning of skin. A few days ago we were warned that ozone levels
were too low, meaning the hole was BIG (20/9/06: "Details about
Antarctic ozone levels have been released after the end of the winter
season. NIWA scientists started testing this week at a ground site near
Scott Base. Ozone researcher Stephen Wood says so far the level of ozone
in the atmosphere is low. He says the level at the moment is about 160
Dobson units. Anything below 220 Dobson units is considered part of an
ozone hole"). Okay, the hole is big. So what on earth does NASA mean on
this website report
<http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020926ozonehole.html>
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020926ozonehole.html
September 30, 2002: "UNUSUALLY SMALL ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE THIS YEAR
ATTRIBUTED TO EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG STRATOSPHERIC WEATHER
SYSTEMS..Scientists from NASA and the Commerce Department's National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have confirmed the ozone
hole over the Antarctic this September is not only much smaller than it
was in 2000 and 2001, but has split into two separate holes. "
Er..pardon? The hole is so small it has even been breaking up?
Back to our genius scientists in NZ who continue peddling the wrong
story. "Niwa said space agencies are forecasting that there could be 23
per cent less ozone over New Zealand than the average for this time of
year, making it highly likely people could burn if the weather is good".
So..hole back to being BIG in their minds. According to Niwa, "if the
skies are clear, the forecast low ozone means that UV levels in the
south of New Zealand are likely to increase from a typical September
noon-time UV index of 4 to 5.5. In the north of the country, the noon UV
index could be as high as 8 compared to the usual September value of
around 6.5".
The real truth? As usual they want a bob each way. If it gets big they
would have been right and if not they would also have been right because
of the colder summer idea. Confused? I am!
If you want to see the hole yourself, go to
<http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=GFS003&TIME=2006092200RION=
SHEM&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F2=none&C1=none&C2=none&VEC=none&F1=tozo>
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=GFS003&TIME=2006092200RION=S
HEM&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F2=none&C1=none&C2=none&VEC=none&F1=tozo
You will see that the hole is actually nowhere near NZ and even if it
was, ozone being three thousandths of one percent of the atmosphere at
any one time, its absence would make as much impact on our skies as the
blocking of sunlight from a passing mosquito. Yikes - there's one..! Run
for cover!! The evil sun will fry you to a cinder on Sunday..mankind is
DOOMED..!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Looking immediately ahead
NZ forecast, from Predict Weather Almanac 2006
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
23rd: Dry Gis and HB, cloudy with night showers rest of N.I. Unsettled
S.I. Heavy falls in Greymouth, NW winds, and Grey River may rise with
king tides.
24th: Showers N.I. Fine Gis. to HB. Showers clearing most of S.I.
Strong W winds and showers S coasts.
25th: Showers N of N.I., also Fiordland and Otago, otherwise fine.
26th: Showers W and S of S.I. Fine elsewhere.
27th: Fine N.I. Cloud W of S.I. and S coasts
28th: Cloudy N and W of N.I. and showers. Cloudy N and W of S.I. with
showers. Fine elsewhere. An anticyclone covers the country, followed by
N winds turning NW ahead of a depression in the Tasman.
At the end of September heavy rain may wash away all remaining snow at
Tukino but the other skifields may be less affected.
29th: Showers N and W both islands and Well. Fine to E of ranges and
Southland.
30th: Front crosses S.I. Fine Gis to Cant. Scattered showers
elsewhere.
Most likely rainfall times for rest of September by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 28th- 30th.
Western, Central North Is: 25th
Taupo: 28th-30th
Gisborne, HB: 25th, 28th )
Lower North Is: 24th-25th, 28th-30th (heavier 24th).
Nelson and Marlborough: 23rd-24th, 28th-31th.
Canterbury: (little or none)
Otago: -24th, 28th-30th
Southland and Dunedin: 24th
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: now-30th (heavier 23rd, 29th).
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GENERAL FOR OCTOBER, NZ
October may be wetter than average for most regions. For both islands
least rain may be around 5th. For North Island most rain may be 10th and
17th, and for South Island around 15th and 26th. In N Is. Whangarei,
Dargaville, Tauranga, Taihape, Gis/HB and Masterton southwards may be
average to drier. All other regions may be wetter. In South Island from
Blenheim to Dunedin down the east coast and including Alexandra and Gore
may be drier, with the top, West Coast, hydrolakes and Queenstown wetter
than normal. Most rain should fall in the second half of the month.
Total sunshine hours may be less than average for both islands. In the N
Is. Kerikeri, Whangarei, Auckland to Opotiki, Gis/HB, Wanganui, PN and
Wellington may be warmer than average. Dargaville, Rotorua, Taupo and
Levin should be average-to-cooler. In S Is, most districts may be
warmer, with Nelson, Westland, Greymouth, Queenstown and Gore average to
cooler.
Diary
1st: N half of NI; occasional rain, isolated falls. SI mostly dry except
for S Westland and far south.
2nd: Showers most of NI. Also top, W and S of SI.
3rd: E from Gis to Wairarapa, fine away from ranges, Cook Str showers
clearing. SI; showers in E Kaikoura to Southland.
4th-7th: Mostly dry except in W. Otago and Southland; winds S coast.
8th: Drizzle Taranaki to Wgtn. W of SI; mist, light rain, heavier in
Fiordland. Marl and Nelson; fine. Cant; mainly fine. Otago and
Southland; showers.
9th: N and W of NI, also Wgtn; drizzle, becoming fine. E of NI and N of
SI; mainly fine. Rest of SI; light rain then fine.
10th-11th: N and W of NI, also Wgtn and Nelson; cloudy, rain spreading
from N. E from Gis to Cant; cloudy, rain over ranges.
12th: N and W of NI from Northland to Manawhatu; scattered showers. E
from Gis to Wairarapa and about Cook Str; fine. W of SI; showers easing.
14th: E from Gis to inland Otago and Southland; mainly fine.
15th: N and W of NI; occasional showers, fine intervals later. E from
Gis to Cant, also Wgtn and Nelson; mainly fine. W coast of SI; showers.
Otago and Southland; showers W and S coast.
16th: E from Gis to Wairarapa and on Kaikoura coast and Cant away from
Alps; dry, showers in ranges. Other NI areas, rain widespread. SI W
coast; showers. Southland and Otago; showers in W and S.
17th: N of Taupo; showers. W from Taranaki to Manawhatu, rain, easing.
Gis/HB; scattered rain.
18th: N of Ruapehu; rain easing.
19th: N of Taupo; fine, few showers. Gis to N Otago, also Wgtn and
Nelson; mainly fine, showers in W ranges. Taranaki, Wanganui and
Manawhatu; cold and showery, fine intervals increasing.
21st: W from Northland to Manawhatu; showers and fine periods. E NI;
fine with brief rain. Wgtn, Marl and Nelson; fine, odd showers, gales
developing.
22nd: N and W of NI; showers then rain with possible thunderstorms.
23rd: Gis/HB and Wairarapa; fine apart from morning showers in ranges.
Rest of NI; showers N of Levin, otherwise fine. Over SI; clearing,
cloudy W coast.
24th: N and W of NI, also Wgtn and Marl; cloud, rain later. Gis/HB;
fine. Nelson; rain. W coast of SI; rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Cant; gusty NWs inland. rain on Alps and dry in E.
25th: Northland to Waitomo and Taupo; fine, few showers. W from Taranaki
to Manawhatu; showers easing. E from Gis to Wairarapa and Marl to N
Otago, also Wgtn and Nelson; sunny. W coast of SI; showers easing.
26th: N of NI; fine, showers. E of NI; fine and gusty. SW of NI, Cook
Str and Nelson; gales and rain. Buller, Westland and Fiordland; rain,
some heavy.
28th: W from Taumaranui to Wgtn; showers. Elsewhere over NI; dry, warm
in E.
29th: N and E of NI; rain, thunderstorms. Showery S of Auckland.
30th: Northland, Auckland, Rotorua and New Plymouth; showers. Gis/HB,
also Nelson and Christchurch; fine. Wgtn; cloudy. Greymouth/Hokitika;
rain. Variable winds Dunedin, rain. Invercargill; showers.
A 24 hour error may apply to all of the above forecasts, with chances
of more skewing of readings around Full moon(7th), perigee(7th)
apogee(19th) and New moon(22nd).
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Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st-2nd, 10th-14th, 17th-20th, 22nd-31st
(heavier 1st, 10th, 22nd, 26th, 31st).
Western, Central North Is: 2nd, 10th-14th, 16th-31st (heavier 17th,
22nd, 26th, 31st).
Taupo: 2nd, 10th-14th, 16th-31st (heavier 10th, 17th, 31st)
Gisborne, HB: 4th, 10th-11th, 14th, 20th, 31st (heavier 14th).
Lower North Is: 2nd, 10th-17th, 20th-31st (heavier 2nd, 11th, 16th,
29th).
Nelson and Marlborough: 2nd, 10th-16th, 20th-22nd, 24th-31st (heavier
10th, 13th, 15th, 20th, 28th).
Canterbury: 2nd, 15th, 23rd-26th, 31st(heavier 26th)
Otago: 10th, 15th-18th, 22nd-26th, 31st (heavier 26th)
Southland and Dunedin: 1st-3rd, 5th-11th, 13th-18th, 22nd-31st(heavier
9th, 15th, 24th, 28th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 2nd-4th, 6th, 9th-31st (heavier 9th-31st)..
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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December and Xmas holidays
A big low is coming through from the west bringing a lot of rain. This
will mostly affect the second week of December. Then it should be
pleasant from about the middle of the month onward apart from odd
showers.
Apart from odd overnight falls, Xmas Day should be mostly dry for
everyone except Dargaville and Gisborne.
The last few days of the year should be pleasant for all, including NYE
and NYD, but then everything turns to custard. Summer is not going to
start properly until the third week in February, due to cyclones in
January and February bringing much rain to the NI. People are going to
ask when's our long hot summer coming, because it won't be apparent next
year. December and late Feb/March are the best periods to go on
holidays. March 6-20 may only have about 3 rain days in that interval.
So time to take holidays this coming summer could be Dec 25th-31st, Jan
21-27, Feb 19th-28th, the third week in March 13th-22nd, and April
10th-17th.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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2007 NZ Almanac out
Next year's book is now in shops. Look for the bright green cover with
meteorologist Gary Roberts' splendid photo of the Lindis Pass on the
front.
So what is in store for the new year? In 2007 an increase in NEs will
make the top half of the NI wetter and warmer. However the southern half
of the NI and most of the SI will have a drier and warmer year.
Exceptions in the NI will be Gisborne, Napier and Masterton wetter and
warmer, and in the SI Timaru and Oamaru drier and cooler. April will be
the sunniest month..
2007 will start with a summer late in arriving, due to rain in much of
January and February from cyclones passing through. Some places will not
get summer's long fine spells until February's third week. Best time to
take holidays in the NI over summer will be Dec 25th-31st(both islands),
Jan 3rd-7th(SI), Feb 19th-28th(NI, Marl. and Cant), March 13th-21st(both
islands), and April 10th-17th(both islands).
Auckland and Northland will get too little rain for the second half of
February. After a wet January and February the autumn will be drier than
average in the NI, and average in the SI. All of March for Waikato could
be dry.
As in 2006, in 2007 the first half of winter will be the worst, when
much rain comes to the NI and heavy rain and snow for the SI from a
destructive cold snap in the second week of June The first week of July
brings another cold wintry blast. The end of winter in August will be
considerably drier. September to October will be the cloudiest period
which will mean a warmer spring.
In the southern hydrolakes there should be adequate storage levels over
the winter months.
As for extreme weather events, there won't be a lot of rain in
Canterbury until mid May and discussion about drought will begin at the
start of the year. About 5 cyclones are expected between December 2006
and May 2007. Effects are likely mid January, after mid February, in
second week of March and the third week in April. The West Coast may see
some disastrous weather in the first week of March. March will be a bad
month weatherwise for many. Wellington will be affected by storms in the
fourth week of April. The worst of SI weather will be about mid June.
October will be a bad rain month for the NI, and the top and west of the
SI. November will bring widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe
December weather just before New Years Eve will close the year with some
drama.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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January
Cyclone 12-15th
January 8th: Effects of cyclone blow across north of NI affecting
Auckland and Northland, high winds and gales in exposed places.
15th, Beginning of 9 days of rain in western BOP.
16th, Rain from the edge of a tropical cyclone may affect Coromandel
over the next 2 days.
25th, Continuing rain starts to affect Northland crops.
30th, Flooding and slips may close NI roads.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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February
Cyclone 8th-13th, 21st-28th in Fiji.
Most of the rain for both islands comes in the first half of the month.
It gets better after the 17th.
February 1st; Prolonged heavy rain starts to affect Auck and Hamilton
stone fruit crops.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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March
Cyclones 1st-2nd, 10th-11th
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Next winter
June to mid July will again be the coldest period. Some real heavy snows
will be coming again but rather than sudden cold snaps, next year should
see more regular snow events. 2007's coldest winter temperatures will be
in first half of the season up till mid July.
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Australia
The Predict Weather for Australia 2007 almanac and isobaric maps is out
now and available in all Australian bookshops. Kindly published by
Random House Australia it covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States in
this nearly 500-page book. There are frost, flood, fog, snow, storm and
hail diaries, main city summaries, extreme weather events, daily
readouts and heaps more. Even if you don't buy one, if you are an
Australian farmer check it out in the bookstore or library.
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Notes for regions, extracts from radio interviews
Darwin notes
Around new moon time if there is any rain it comes at night, and you
would have got some in the last couple of days but no more should be
coming after Monday. Then after this weekend you have a dry run until
October.
October, the skies go dark again about October 7 but there won't be much
if any rain in that. Oct 16 gives chance of a shower and then the last
week in October brings real rain in the early morning, then on and off
again showers until Nov 4.
November, the second half of the month brings rain, perhaps about 80mm.
December is going to be a cracker, with the first cyclone due to dump on
Darwin in the second week of the month - between 10th-14th I expect
300mm. It'll affect Katherine too. From Dec 21st-27th there may be
another lot from another cyclone.
2007
January, all the first half of the month should be wet every day, and
rain also on the last 3 days of the month.
Feb, again all the first half of the month wet every day, clearing about
the 14th and then rain returning about the 24th and continuing until
March 6.
From 9 March through to 12 May you won't have to wait more than 4 days
for at least some rain and the monsoon season will stop abruptly in the
middle of May. Apart from one little sprinkle on June 17 Darwin will be
mostly dry right from mid May until October 25 .
I don't think it will be an extra hot summer. Around the middle of
October will be unusually warm, also the second week in November, and
the last few days of Nov. I don't expect temps to go above 35 often, if
at all. The highest temps will be at the end of Feb which is in the
middle of a cyclone so it won't be hot sun then.
Sydney notes
October will again give hardly any rain all month (just some around 10th
and 17th).
November will give some rain around the 9th and and in the third week
and then
December will be a wet month, in the first week and after 19th for about
the last ten days. In fact just before New Year I'm expecting a deluge
further north on the QSLD coast, about 200mm in one day, that will be
around December 30th, and there may be rain from about the 19th-26th.
Xmas Day might be a bit wet for Sydney. Year 2007 should be a drier than
normal year but it won't feel that way until down to about July, because
there'll be a lot of gray skies even though months will have below
average rain. For instance it will feel like a rainy January, the first
week in February will be wet, March mostly cloudy so good for gardeners,
April a rainy Easter weekend, May will feel dismal, so the firsat half
of the year will be grey and gloomy. Having said that the dams may be
okay. July and August bring clearer skies and they'll be cold months as
a result, Sept no rain at all, and October the same.
Melbourne mostly dry until next March
Less than the June amount may again be expected in August, October and
November. December should bring some relief in the first week of the
month, with about a week of rain commencing at or near the 4th.
Brisbane in 2006
Brisbane to get rain
Long needed rain may not be too far away. Brisbane can expect
significant rain in the first and last weeks of September. However,
October and November should be mainly dry again, with only about 8 rain
days expected during the two months. December is a different story, with
good rain amounts expected in the third and fourth weeks. 2007 is
expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with the wettest
months likely to be April and May.
September, wetter than average,
October, just about no rain at all,
November, a drier than normal month and
December, a wetter month also.
Adelaide to briefly end dry spell
Adelaide can expect rain this weekend, the following weekend and in the
last week of September. Adelaide can expect about 8 rain days in
September, 5 in October and 4 in November, with small amounts from each.
December should be no better, with about 5 rain days. 2007 is expected
to be an overall drier than normal year, with no months likely to be
wetter than average.
Canberra rain relief
September will deliver some much-needed rain in the first week, again in
midmonth and in the last two days of the month. October and November
will be mostly dry but in the last days of November and throughout
December good rain will put smiles on farmers' faces. The first half of
January will also be wet. February will be very dry and rain will return
in the last week of March. For Canberra, 2007 is expected to be an
overall wetter than normal year, with autumn likely to be wetter than
average.
Perth
2006 Months ahead
September most rain in last half.
Oct, wet 1-18th,
November wet only second and third weeks
December will be a dry month, only 3 rain days. Xmas Day fine(dry Dec
15-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry 30th-8th)
Q/A
1. What will xmas and new year be like later this year and also in 2007;
Xmas Day fine(dry from Dec 15th-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry from Dec
30th-Jan 8th)
2, What would be the best day to play golf on, not too hot, no rain and
little wind, what day of the week should it be?
Avoid February
3. When should we be booking our holidays??
Many fine periods. First half of Feb too hot - on 40s.
4. Summer was late this year, are we likely to have our heat waves in
April next year as well?
No
5. So, is there any predicted rainfall for next year.
Overall a drier than average year, wettest half will be second half,
wettest months Aug and then Oct.
Hobart notes
2006 Months ahead
27th-Sept 4th continuous intermittent shower days. So 10-17 and 21-27
should be about the driest in Aug
Sept, not much rain but a lot of rain days
Oct most rain in second half
Nov some rain, heavier at end of mth
Dec rain in first 12 days the 22nd/23rd, dry Xmas Day
------------------------------------------------------------
Tim Flannery is just plain wrong
Flannery is author of We Are The Weather Makers. He is incorrect, in my
view, as we are not the weathermakers.
Greenhouse gases can trap heat near Earth's surface. That much is true.
If heat wasn't trapped we would all die from the impact of the cold of
space when the sun was out of the sky, a cold worse than any Antarctica
winter's night. But to say this warming in turn places pressure on
Earth's climate system, and can lead to climate change is just bollocks.
Unfortunately for Tim Flannery and his scaremongering ilk, climate
actually means latitude. The word climate refers to a point on the
curvature of the earth. Only natural factors that can change latitude,
and driving a few cars with smoky exhausts around is not one of them.
One is a distortion of the Sun/Moon/planetary system that revolve around
us, pulling and distorting the atmosphere and land masses over time
scales of thousands of years, another is the displacement of the poles
over tens of thousands of years, and a third factor is continental drift
over timescales of millions of years. People like Flannery play on the
fears of ordinary people and convince them that we are doomed. But the
thermometer has only been around for 300 years, and the Earth has been
around for 4 billion years. So how do we, a tiny numbered and relatively
newly-arrived species know what the normal earth temperature is supposed
to be?. How then do we know that not only are we unnaturally warming,
but that the planet needs our help to be saved? Forget man's
contribution to anything, it is infinitesimal. Go out into space and
look back. You can't see any cities, let alone factories belching
emissions or farting cows, but you can easily see giant swirling weather
systems. The scale of weather is immense, and emitting CO2 or pumping
coal gases out of chimneys won't do anything except make our cities
dirty. I look at it this way. Ants can also make their nests dirty, but
dirty ants' nests won't alter weather or affect climate either. The
trouble is, scientific vanity suggests we are super-powerful, both to
cause problems and to fix them. This comes from religion, which suggests
that just by believing something one can have a working partnershiup
with a deity. The truth is that we are part of nature, not against it or
on top of it. We are not in charge and we, so ignorant that we can't
even feed our species adequately or provide fresh water, can't protect
members from the greed of each other, and can't fix even the common
cold, certainly have no business pontificating on what to do to change
anybody's climate.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
SEPTEMBER MOON
1st: 1st Quarter
3rd: Southern Declination
8th: Full Moon
8th: Perigee #2
9th: Crossing Equator
14th: Last Quarter
15th: Northern Declination
22nd: New Moon
22nd: Crossing Equator
22nd: Apogee
30th: 1st Quarter
30th: Southern Declination
OCTOBER MOON
6th: Crossing Equator
7th: Full Moon
7th: Perigee #3
12th: Northern Declination
14th: Last Quarter
19th: Apogee
20th: Crossing Equator
22nd: New Moon
27th: Southern Declination
30th: 1st Quarter
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
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