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WEATHER EZINE Oct 3, 2006
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Ken Ring
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Oct 02, 2006 15:44 PDT
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE Oct 3, 2006
CURRENT MOON
COMING UP
FILM REVIEW: INCONVENIENT TRUTH
OCTOBER
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Current Moon
6th: crossing equator heading north
7th: full moon, perigee(3rd closest for year)
12th: northern declination
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Coming up
According to Blues Skies' Tony Trewinnard, Christchurch is going to be
fairly dry in coming months. I'm grateful that Tony has read my almanac.
I believe the area will soon be talking about drought again, as I
explained two weeks ago on Jamie McKay's Hokanui Gold radio station.
Canterbury temps should start increasing in the second week of November
when the Full moon coincides with the northen declination, but the
hottest summer day in Christchurch will probably be Feb 1st. For
Ashburton the hottest days may be around the end of December.
Christchurch rain for October is only expected to be 11mm out of an
average of 45mm, November rain 30-40mm and December 12mm out of 55mm
average. For many, like Auckland, the hottest part of summer should be
before Xmas. The warmth becomes less potent from December to February
but by late February comes back. So January and Feb may be cooler than
average and slightly cooler autumn. For a place like Canberra, again, I
think the hottest time will be before Xmas. The hottest above-30 day of
summer for Canberra should be mid Nov, perhaps Nov 14th.
The reason is quite simple. Australian readers may have noticed that
around Sept 7th in Sydney the wind came up very strong, actually the
strongest all month on that day. Wind blows in rain, and some Sydneyites
had very big rain on the 7th-12th, in one area 165mm in the one day.
Where was the moon? Not surprisingly, the moon was second closest to
earth for the year on Sept 8th and causing more gravitational pull on
the air (P#1 for the year was at the end of last Feb). When the moon
comes real close like that and that day coincides with a Full moon, or
conversely when it is the furthest away for the month and that coincides
with New moon, temperatures begin to soar. It got rather hot a few days
later on the weekend of the 16th/17th. On Friday 22nd we had that New
moon+apogee situation and very hot temps around NZ. Add to that the fact
that the moon was at its northernmost point for the month on Sept 15th
and that normally brings hotter temps anyway, because as the moon comes
down on its trek south it brings hot air from the direction of the
equator.
The temperatures tumbled down again last week, as the moon came
southwards into the lower latitudes. On Friday 30 Sept when the moon was
at S declination, a cold snap ushered in snow and rain. Said the
Metservice: "People in eastern areas will be getting a cold start to
October with several days of wet and windy southerlies this week. The
low-pressure system is likely to combine with high pressures developing
over the South Island to drop the temperatures in central areas from
Wednesday until the weekend. It will be sunny and mild in Westland, and
frosts are on the menu after Wednesday for central Otago and parts of
Canterbury."
On the weekend of 16th/17th we were told that ozone holes were causing
the higher temps. However, let's look to the moon. We have just come
through a period where FMs have been accompanying close perigees and NMs
accompanying apogees, both very warming factors. Both hemispheres have
felt the brunt, with warmer autumns in the north and warmer springs in
the south. It is little wonder ice is melting in the Arctic, but their
story is not an ozone one but that it has something to do with global
warming. This lunar phenomenon will continue till October but start to
move away in November. Full moon+perigee OR new moon+apogee on 16/17th
when the NM and apogee occurred together saw temps rose alarmingly
downunder in both Australia and NZ. Here's why. Over NM time the moon is
a day moon and in the sky during daylight hours. When in the sky at any
time the moon pulls up the air due its tidal effect. On perigee it pulls
more so conversely on apogee it pulls the airheight upwards less. On
that weekend being apogee(furthest away) one can imagine the moon didn't
raise the airheight as much as it would on a normal non-apogee NM day.
The moon raising the air keeps at bay the sun's heat. If the protective
air level is NOT raised as high as normally during the day then the
sun's heat can come closer to the ground. And it did.
Close perigees and further away apogees become less potent from December
to February but by late February they will again accompany NMs and start
coming closer. That means that we will again get a cooler autumn and in
the N hem winter snows will be late and should continue into next May
and even June in some areas. The hottest part of summer for the S hem
should be before Xmas. In the N hem winter snows will be late and should
continue next year into May and even June in some areas.
Canberra temps
Unusual heat has come to Canberra. More hot days hovering around 30s
should be at mid and end of this Oct, the middle and end of Nov, and the
middle and end of Dec/first week of Jan. There will still be other hot
spots though, like 19 Jan which may also be over 30 but not as high as
in mid Nov, also as the moon starts to come in again early in 2007 the
temps may climb to around 30s for Feb 18-29, March 8-10 and 16-19. On
March 21st the moon will be 4th closest to earth for the year and should
be the last time the temps go anywhere near 30 for the summer season.
After that temps for Canberra will drop sharply into autumn mode.
Subzero temps should click in around June 24 and end in mid Oct, with
the coldest part of next winter happening in late July/early August.
Natural cycles
These account for all the major "shifts" in climate that have been
observed. Unless these are considered first, any theory of man's
involvement is irrelevant. The fact is, cycles are discounted in favour
of a linear and unidirectional trend. You should remember that
meteorology was invented by astrologers, whose tools were cycles. Along
came religion that threatened this, because a chaotic random world
creates a job for a deity who can be prayed to to sort it all out. The
Church was long involved in suppressing science for this reason. The
global warming scenario and the notion of man as an evil being wrecking
the pristine world of God is the legacy. I think you can probably still
be a Christian and be a supporter of astrology. You can allow others
with alternative ideas to live and let live. Unfortunately the alarmists
seem to focus on the insecurity of life and invent scapegoats to feel
good about themselves. Longrange forecasterrs uphold these natural
cycles and try to rescue people from terror-ism as propounded by the
likes of Al Gore, Greenpeace and state-paid greenie scientists.
Interview with Richard Green 26/9/06 NewstalkZB, Canterbury
There won't be a lot of rain in Canterbury until mid May and discussion
about drought will begin soon or around the start of the new year.
Looking at what's ahead for the region:
October 2006
October begins with Ns later turning to NEs ahead of a depression. A
series of continuing W and NW airstreams feature from mid October and
conditions may be generally windier than average for most places,
especially in Wellington. Wetter for both islands but not for
Canterbury. For the South Is. October could be the wettest month may be
October. For both islands least rain may be around 5th. For SI most rain
may be 15th and 26th. Blenheim to Dunedin down the east coast and
including Alexandra and Gore may be drier, Most rain should fall in the
second half of the month. Total sunshine hours may be less than average
for both islands. In S Is, most districts may be warmer, with Nelson,
Westland, Greymouth, Queenstown and Gore average to cooler. In Oct we
have another close perigee, which means more widespread rain again in
the second week of October. So for October Blenheim to Dunedin should be
drier. October’s perigee coincides with full moon on 7th and is
powerful, being third closest. SI rain around 15th and 26th
November 2006
Disturbed Ws in Mid November change to SWs by 17th and conditions stay
anticyclonic until 21st which should see a change to a northerly
airstream and then showery SWs. December starts with moist Ns from a
depression quickly changing to cool Ss from an anticyclone. By the
second week of December moist Ns return until the next anticyclone
brings SWs during Xmas and the fourth week, with the anticyclone
covering the country by 27th. Drier for the North Island but wetter for
the South Island. Watch for temps to swing in the second week of
November. November should be wetter for the South Island. November sees
a moving away of close Full moon+perigee, which, like new moon+apogee
brings hotter weather. The east continues its warmer than normal run
Christchurch, warmer than average.
December 2006
Close perigees and further away apogees become less potent from December
to February but by late February they will again accompany NMs and start
coming closer. This will spell a cooler autumn for NZ. Drier for both
islands. The second half of December may see a sudden temperature hike.
By the end of December drought conditions could become more widespread,
affecting all eastern regions of the South Is. December and January
should be much warmer than usual for many districts. The drought in
Canterbury and Otago is likely to continue until May 2007. Dec will
deliver more sunshine and be warmer.
2007 for Canterbury
most of SI drier and warmer. Exceptions Timaru and Oamaru drier and
cooler. April sunniest month.. 2007 will start with a summer late in
arriving, due to rain in much of January and February from cyclones
passing through. Some places will not get summer's long fine spells
until February's third week. Best time to take holidays
Dec 25th-31st(both islands),
Jan 3rd-7th(SI),
Feb 19th-28th(NI, Marl. and Cant),
March 13th-21st(both islands), and
April 10th-17th(both islands).
Canterbury winter
The first half of winter should be the worst, with heavy rain and snow
for the SI in second week of June The first week of July brings another
cold wintry blast. The end of winter in August will be considerably
drier. September to October will be the cloudiest period which will mean
a warmer spring. In the southern hydrolakes there will be adequate
storage levels over winter months.
In 2007, as for extreme weather events, there won't be a lot of rain in
Canterbury until mid May and discussion about drought will begin soon or
around the start of this coming new year. About 5 cyclones are expected
between December 2006 and May 2007. Effects are likely mid January,
after mid February, in second week of March and the third week in April.
The West Coast may see some disastrous weather in the first week of
March. March will be a bad month weatherwise for many. Wellington will
be affected by storms in the fourth week of April.
The worst of SI weather will be about mid June. October will be a bad
rain month for the NI, and the top and west of the SI. Severe December
weather just before New Years Eve will close year 2007 with some drama.
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GENERAL FOR OCTOBER, NZ
(from Predict Weather Almanac 2006) October may be wetter than average
for most regions. For both islands least rain may be around 5th. For
North Island most rain may be 10th and 17th, and for South Island around
15th and 26th. In N Is. Whangarei, Dargaville, Tauranga, Taihape, Gis/HB
and Masterton southwards may be average to drier. All other regions may
be wetter. In South Island from Blenheim to Dunedin down the east coast
and including Alexandra and Gore may be drier, with the top, West Coast,
hydrolakes and Queenstown wetter than normal. Most rain should fall in
the second half of the month. Total sunshine hours may be less than
average for both islands. In the N Is. Kerikeri, Whangarei, Auckland to
Opotiki, Gis/HB, Wanganui, PN and Wellington may be warmer than average.
Dargaville, Rotorua, Taupo and Levin should be average-to-cooler. In S
Is, most districts may be warmer, with Nelson, Westland, Greymouth,
Queenstown and Gore average to cooler.
Diary
1st: N half of NI; occasional rain, isolated falls. SI mostly dry except
for S Westland and far south.
2nd: Showers most of NI. Also top, W and S of SI.
3rd: E from Gis to Wairarapa, fine away from ranges, Cook Str showers
clearing. SI; showers in E Kaikoura to Southland.
4th-7th: Mostly dry except in W. Otago and Southland; winds S coast.
8th: Drizzle Taranaki to Wgtn. W of SI; mist, light rain, heavier in
Fiordland. Marl and Nelson; fine. Cant; mainly fine. Otago and
Southland; showers.
9th: N and W of NI, also Wgtn; drizzle, becoming fine. E of NI and N of
SI; mainly fine. Rest of SI; light rain then fine.
10th-11th: N and W of NI, also Wgtn and Nelson; cloudy, rain spreading
from N. E from Gis to Cant; cloudy, rain over ranges.
12th: N and W of NI from Northland to Manawhatu; scattered showers. E
from Gis to Wairarapa and about Cook Str; fine. W of SI; showers easing.
14th: E from Gis to inland Otago and Southland; mainly fine.
15th: N and W of NI; occasional showers, fine intervals later. E from
Gis to Cant, also Wgtn and Nelson; mainly fine. W coast of SI; showers.
Otago and Southland; showers W and S coast.
16th: E from Gis to Wairarapa and on Kaikoura coast and Cant away from
Alps; dry, showers in ranges. Other NI areas, rain widespread. SI W
coast; showers. Southland and Otago; showers in W and S.
17th: N of Taupo; showers. W from Taranaki to Manawhatu, rain, easing.
Gis/HB; scattered rain.
18th: N of Ruapehu; rain easing.
19th: N of Taupo; fine, few showers. Gis to N Otago, also Wgtn and
Nelson; mainly fine, showers in W ranges. Taranaki, Wanganui and
Manawhatu; cold and showery, fine intervals increasing.
21st: W from Northland to Manawhatu; showers and fine periods. E NI;
fine with brief rain. Wgtn, Marl and Nelson; fine, odd showers, gales
developing.
22nd: N and W of NI; showers then rain with possible thunderstorms.
23rd: Gis/HB and Wairarapa; fine apart from morning showers in ranges.
Rest of NI; showers N of Levin, otherwise fine. Over SI; clearing,
cloudy W coast.
24th: N and W of NI, also Wgtn and Marl; cloud, rain later. Gis/HB;
fine. Nelson; rain. W coast of SI; rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Cant; gusty NWs inland. rain on Alps and dry in E.
25th: Northland to Waitomo and Taupo; fine, few showers. W from Taranaki
to Manawhatu; showers easing. E from Gis to Wairarapa and Marl to N
Otago, also Wgtn and Nelson; sunny. W coast of SI; showers easing.
26th: N of NI; fine, showers. E of NI; fine and gusty. SW of NI, Cook
Str and Nelson; gales and rain. Buller, Westland and Fiordland; rain,
some heavy.
28th: W from Taumaranui to Wgtn; showers. Elsewhere over NI; dry, warm
in E.
29th: N and E of NI; rain, thunderstorms. Showery S of Auckland.
30th: Northland, Auckland, Rotorua and New Plymouth; showers. Gis/HB,
also Nelson and Christchurch; fine. Wgtn; cloudy. Greymouth/Hokitika;
rain. Variable winds Dunedin, rain. Invercargill; showers.
A 24 hour error may apply to all of the above forecasts, with chances
of more skewing of readings around Full moon(7th), perigee(7th)
apogee(19th) and New moon(22nd).
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Most likely rainfall times by region for october are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st-2nd, 10th-14th, 17th-20th, 22nd-31st
(heavier 1st, 10th, 22nd, 26th, 31st).
Western, Central North Is: 2nd, 10th-14th, 16th-31st (heavier 17th,
22nd, 26th, 31st).
Taupo: 2nd, 10th-14th, 16th-31st (heavier 10th, 17th, 31st)
Gisborne, HB: 4th, 10th-11th, 14th, 20th, 31st (heavier 14th).
Lower North Is: 2nd, 10th-17th, 20th-31st (heavier 2nd, 11th, 16th,
29th).
Nelson and Marlborough: 2nd, 10th-16th, 20th-22nd, 24th-31st (heavier
10th, 13th, 15th, 20th, 28th).
Canterbury: 2nd, 15th, 23rd-26th, 31st(heavier 26th)
Otago: 10th, 15th-18th, 22nd-26th, 31st (heavier 26th)
Southland and Dunedin: 1st-3rd, 5th-11th, 13th-18th, 22nd-31st(heavier
9th, 15th, 24th, 28th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 2nd-4th, 6th, 9th-31st (heavier 9th-31st)..
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December and Xmas holidays
A big low is coming through from the west bringing a lot of rain. This
will mostly affect the second week of December. Then it should be
pleasant from about the middle of the month onward apart from odd
showers. Apart from odd overnight falls, Xmas Day should be mostly dry
for everyone except Dargaville and Gisborne.
The last few days of the year should be pleasant for all, including NYE
and NYD, but then everything turns to custard. 2007 will start with a
summer late in arriving. Summer is not going to start properly until the
third week in February, due to cyclones in January and February bringing
much rain to the NI. In 2007 an increase in NEs will make the top half
of the NI wetter and warmer. However the southern half of the NI and
most of the SI will have a drier and warmer year. Exceptions in the NI
will be Gisborne, Napier and Masterton wetter and warmer, and in the SI
Timaru and Oamaru drier and cooler. April will be the sunniest month..
People are going to ask when's our long hot summer coming, because it
won't be apparent next year. December and late Feb/March are the best
periods to go on holidays. March 6-20 may only have about 3 rain days in
that interval. Best time to take holidays in the NI over summer will be
Dec 25th-31st(both islands), Jan 3rd-7th(SI), Feb 19th-28th(NI, Marl.
and Cant), March 13th-21st(both islands), and April 10th-17th(both
islands).
Auckland and Northland will get too little rain for the second half of
February. After a wet January and February the autumn will be drier than
average in the NI, and average in the SI. All of March for Waikato could
be dry.
As in 2006, in 2007 the first half of winter will be the worst, when
much rain comes to the NI and heavy rain and snow for the SI from a
destructive cold snap in the second week of June The first week of July
brings another cold wintry blast. The end of winter in August will be
considerably drier. September to October will be the cloudiest period
which will mean a warmer spring.
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2007 Almanacs out
Next year's NZ book is now in shops. Look for the bright green cover
with Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' splendid photo of the Lindis
Pass on the front.
The 2007 Australian Almanac is also out. Published by Random House
Australia it should be available in all Australian bookshops or
orderable as Predict Weather for Australia 2007, Almanac and Isobaric
Maps. It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States in this nearly
500-page book. There are frost, flood, fog, snow, storm and hail
diaries, main city summaries, extreme weather events, daily readouts and
heaps more. Even if you don't buy one, if you are an Australian farmer
you might want to check it out in the bookstore or library.
The 355 Rule: A little secret is that the almanacs ALSO can be used for
the remainder of this year. The rule is, you subtract 355 days from what
is in the almanac and you get very roughly corresponding dates to this
year. That's because the moon was in the sky in roughly the same place
355 days ago(actually 354.7) and that is the Lunar Year. In the
Australian book turn to p365/366 and for Sept 20/21st 2007 you'll see
yesterday's weather map as it will be on TV. The H is there over QSLD
above Brisbane and a low is about to skip through the Bight, with the
other H coming onto Perth. That's the system happening now. By
subtracting 355 the reader can see the chance of showers about the 2nd
and 3rd of October 2006. But I don't think it'll amount to much.
In the NZ almanac, check out p277 of the 2007 edition. You will read
about storms passing through Auckland and see last night's weather map
with the L over the north, as on NZ TV.
This 355 method is not the be-all and end-all, and it's only one
indicator I use, like one brick in a wall, but most of the time it is
good enough to be useful. Enjoy!
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Tropical cyclones and rain coming
About 5 cyclones are expected between December 2006 and May 2007.
Effects are likely mid January, after mid February, in second week of
March and the third week in April. The West Coast may see some
disastrous weather in the first week of March. March will be a bad month
weatherwise for many. Wellington will be affected by storms in the
fourth week of April. The worst of SI weather will be about mid June.
October will be a bad rain month for the NI, and the top and west of the
SI. November will bring widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe
December weather just before New Years Eve will close the year with some
drama.
January
Cyclone 12-15th
January 8th: Effects of cyclone blow across north of NI affecting
Auckland and Northland, high winds and gales in exposed places.
15th, Beginning of 9 days of rain in western BOP.
16th, Rain from the edge of a tropical cyclone may affect Coromandel
over the next 2 days.
25th, Continuing rain starts to affect Northland crops.
30th, Flooding and slips may close NI roads.
February
Cyclone 8th-13th, 21st-28th in Fiji.
Most of the rain for both islands comes in the first half of the month.
It gets better after the 17th.
February 1st; Prolonged heavy rain starts to affect Auck and Hamilton
stone fruit crops.
March
Cyclones 1st-2nd, 10th-11th
Next winter
June to mid July will again be the coldest period. Some real heavy snows
will be coming again but rather than sudden cold snaps, next year should
see more regular snow events. 2007's coldest winter temperatures will be
in first half of the season up till mid July.
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Australia
Notes for regions, extracts from radio interviews
Darwin notes(ABC Darwin) 22/9/06
October, the skies go dark again about October 7 but there won't be much
if any rain in that. Oct 16 gives chance of a shower and then the last
week in October brings real rain in the early morning, then on and off
again showers until Nov 4. November, the second half of the month
brings rain, perhaps about 80mm. December is going to be a cracker, with
the first cyclone due to dump on Darwin in the second week of the month
- between 10th-14th I expect 300mm. It'll affect Katherine too. From Dec
21st-27th there may be another lot from another cyclone. In 2007over
January, all the first half of the month should be wet every day, and
rain also on the last 3 days of the month. In Feb, again all the first
half of the month wet every day, clearing about the 14th and then rain
returning about the 24th and continuing until March 6. From 9 March
through to 12 May you won't have to wait more than 4 days for at least
some rain and the monsoon season will stop abruptly in the middle of
May. Apart from one little sprinkle on June 17 Darwin will be mostly dry
right from mid May until October 25 . I don't think it will be an extra
hot summer. Around the middle of October will be unusually warm, also
the second week in November, and the last few days of Nov. I don't
expect temps to go much above 35 often, if at all. The highest temps
will be at the end of Feb which is in the middle of a cyclone so it
won't be hot sun then.
Sydney notes (2UE on Saturday 1/10/06 and 2GB on 3/10/06)
For October not much rain all month but quite a few cloudy days. I
expect rain about the end of next weekend which is 8th-10th then maybe
16-20th and maybe 28th. The dams could get some around the 9th and 20th.
Up north a bit, around Wollombi, rain only around the 8th and 9th of
this month. Temps will be down over the next couple of days then come up
again over Full moon which is Oct 7 and then again around Oct 12-16
which is the next N dec. You'll get another rise again about Oct 25-27
following the NM+A on Oct 22. October will again give hardly any rain
all month (just some around 10th and 17th). November will give you some
rain in the first and third weeks. Temps will rise around Nov 6th(FM)
and stay high til about the 9th when it will be a N dec, and I expect
temps then to be up around the 40s. I've got your hottest day all summer
on Nov 10. The thermometer should immediately start to fall after that
and not rise again till Dec 3rd will give some rain around the 9th and
and in the third week. December will be a wet month, coming up to the
FM+N dec on the 5th and 6th temps will rise again. Dec will be
especially wet in the last ten days. Just before New Year I'm expecting
a deluge, further north on the QSLD coast, about 200mm in one day, that
will be around December 30th, and you should get the rain from about the
19th-26th. So Xmas Day might be a bit wet for Sydney.Year 2007 should be
a drier than normal year but it won't feel that way until down to about
July, because there'll be a lot of gray skies even though months will
have below average rain. For instance it will feel like a rainy January,
the first week in February will be wet, March mostly cloudy so good for
gardeners, April a rainy Easter weekend, May will feel dismal, so the
firsat half of the year will be grey and gloomy. Having said that the
dams may be okay. July and August bring clearer skies and they'll be
cold months as a result, Sept no rain at all, and October the same.
Melbourne mostly dry until next March
Less than the June amount may again be expected in August, October and
November. December should bring some relief in the first week of the
month, with about a week of rain commencing at or near the 4th.
Brisbane in 2006
Brisbane to get rain
October and November should be mainly dry again, with only about 8 rain
days expected during the two months. December is a different story, with
good rain amounts expected in the third and fourth weeks. 2007 is
expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with the wettest
months likely to be April and May.
October, just about no rain at all,
November, a drier than normal month and
December, a wetter month also.
Adelaide
Adelaide can expect about 5 rain days in October and 4 in November, with
small amounts from each. December should be no better, with about 5 rain
days. 2007 is expected to be an overall drier than normal year, with no
months likely to be wetter than average.
Canberra rain relief
October and November will be mostly dry but in the last days of November
and throughout December good rain will put smiles on farmers' faces. The
first half of January will also be wet. February will be very dry and
rain will return in the last week of March. For Canberra, 2007 is
expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with autumn likely to
be wetter than average. Coming up, look out for warmer weather mid Oct.
The hottest time will be before Xmas because the moon's perigee sweep-by
will be further away from earth in Dec and Jan, so the temps won't climb
as high. The hottest above-30 day of summer for Canberra should be mid
Nov, I'd say Nov 14th. Other hot days hovering around 30s should be at
mid and end of this Oct, the middle and end of Nov, and the middle and
end of Dec/first week of Jan. There will still be other hot spots
though, like 19 Jan which may also be over 30 but not as high as in mid
Nov, also as the moon starts to come in again early in 2007 the temps
may climb to around 30s for Feb 18-29, March 8-10 and 16-19. On March
21st the moon will be 4th closest to earth for the year and should be
the last time the temps go anywhere near 30 for the summer season. After
that temps for Canberra will drop sharply into autumn mode. Subzero
temps should click in around June 24 and end in mid Oct, with the
coldest part of next winter happening in late July/early August.
Perth
2006 Months ahead
Oct, wet 1-18th,
November wet only second and third weeks
December will be a dry month, only 3 rain days. Xmas Day fine(dry Dec
15-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry 30th-8th)
Q/A
1. What will xmas and new year be like later this year and also in 2007;
Xmas Day fine(dry from Dec 15th-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry from Dec
30th-Jan 8th)
2, What would be the best day to play golf on, not too hot, no rain and
little wind, what day of the week should it be?
Avoid February
3. When should we be booking our holidays??
Many fine periods. First half of Feb too hot - on 40s.
4. Summer was late this year, are we likely to have our heat waves in
April next year as well?
No
5. So, is there any predicted rainfall for next year.
Overall a drier than average year, wettest half will be second half,
wettest months Aug and then Oct.
Hobart notes
2006 Months ahead
Oct most rain in second half
Nov some rain, heavier at end of mth
Dec rain in first 12 days the 22nd/23rd, dry Xmas Day
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Film review: Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth”.
We do love being scared or we wouldn’t pay to go on ferris wheels. This
film was frightening alright - in its banality. Gore's 'facts' are that
the 10 hottest years on record have been recently, but he is wrong -
since 1998 the globe has been cooling and 1922 was the hottest on
record. With only a 300-yr old thermometer it is still unclear whether
the world is heating or cooling. Much is made of a chart with the CO²
and the world’s temperatures fitting together almost perfectly with
graphs that go back hundreds of thousands of years using ice data,
irrefutable photographic records of ice shelves melting, and computer
generated images of major cities including New York and the World Trade
Centre being inundated with water…etc. but it is all computer
extrapolation. Of course they will choose graphs that fit together
perfectly, they are making a movie, and it's Hollywood. The same models
when run forwards fail to predict current weather.
One is left wondering if nature is responsible for anything. Gore’s film
is really a doco about a failed politician that everybody at the time
called a dunderhead, touting a failed cause. He brings in his family,
his sister died of lung cancer, his son had an accident, and his father
either raised Angus bulls, grew tobacco or spent his days in Congress -
it was hard to tell exactly which, but somehow it all relates to global
warming. In Al's film, it is all our fault. Sure, Al is creaming it,
especially with his book of the film that he sells after each seminar,
the stacks of which were not shown in the movie. He's no better than an
old-school hellfire and brimstone bullies who come to town, take money
as donations for "the cause" (the Al Gore Fund) and run.
If it was up to Gore, every industry that burned any fuel, which means
ran an engine, would be taxed accordingly. What a victory for the world
he wasn’t elected. Meanwhile he travels the world in gas-guzzling jets,
delivering night time slide shows which burn electricity, whilst telling
us all to do the opposite. The funniest was when as you went past the
stile out of the theatre they gave out packets of Eco-Soap Powder, one
sachet each, for your washing machine. Yes, that is going to change the
climate.
Someone please tell Al that a warmer world is to be wished for. It would
make more evaporation which would fix droughts and provide for more
water to millions who today go without. It would stop millions from
dying from cold because they cannot afford heating bills. It would allow
access to and open up N Pole oilfields which would reduce the scare of
fuel shortage.
Some facts need to be pointed out by at least one of the skeptics that
Gore does not believe exist any more. The planet warmed until 1940, then
cooled until around 1970 before warming again until 1998 -- producing a
net warming of around 0.6 degrees. Arctic was as warm or warmer in 1940.
The Greenland ice sheet is actually growing. On average Greenland was
warmer in the 1920s and 1930s than it is now. Polar bears have always
migrated to land in late summer when sea ice naturally melts back, and
then return to the ice when it re-freezes. Only 20,000 years ago, great
ice sheets covered much of North America and Europe; permanent glaciers
were also present over southeastern Australia and Tasmania. The sea
level was 130m lower than today and land bridges connected New Guinea
and Tasmania with the Australian mainland. CO2 is PLANT FOOD. As a
greenhouse gas, it is a spent force for climate change; its present
concentration is slightly less than 400 parts per million. 66 per cent
of the greenhouse effect of CO2 is caused by the first 50ppm. With each
doubling of concentration, (from 50 to 100, then to 200 and 400ppm), the
incremental advance of the greenhouse effect is reduced. Even for a
further doubling to 800ppm, as projected by 2100 in the case of unabated
fossil fuel usage, the increase in the greenhouse effect will only be 10
per cent of the present component attributable to CO2. Overall, CO2 is a
relatively minor contributor to the greenhouse effect, which is
dominated by the varying water vapour and clouds of the atmosphere.
Therefore any increasing of the CO2 concentration will have little
additional effect. There was as much CO2 in the atmosphere about 11,000
years ago as there is today.
Global warming is constrained by the need to warm the ocean in advance.
The polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are fundamentally
stable. Ice cores recovered from there confirm that the ice sheets have
survived previous interglacials and have likely existed for more than
one million years. The surface elevation of the ice sheets is more than
3km above sea level across much of their extensive plateaus and
temperatures remain below minus 10C during the brief summer. Today's
temperature is -46degC. It is only at the lower elevations of the
coastal margins that temperatures rise above freezing for a few months
and the strong solar radiation causes ice-melt. At the highest height it
ever reaches in the Antarctic summer, about 18deg above the horizon,
this can be likened to the sun at 4pm over Auckland. Collapse of the
polar ice sheets and a sea level rise of several metres is an unlikely
scenario. Temp at the S pole has declined by more than 1degC since 1950.
The area of sea ice around Antarctica has increased over past 20 yrs.
The place is getting cooler.
Australia (except for the southwest corner) was wetter during the second
half of the 20th century than during the first. The sea level has been
rising at a rate of 1.8 mm per year for the past 8,000 years; the
Australian National Tidal Facility at Tuvalu in 2002 reported: "The
historical record from 1978 through 199 indicated a sea level rise of
0.07 mm per year." Or the width of a hair.
Coral reefs have been around for over 500 million years. This means that
they have survived through long periods with much higher temperatures
and atmospheric CO2 concentrations than today.
Gore's movie provides an opportunity to spur public debate on the global
warming issue. It is critically important for us to become better
informed about global warming, how much of it is natural versus manmade
and so for once and for all we can wipe away the scammers that play on
our fears for their own profit. By now he probably believes the junk
science, but Gore in his opportunism of reaping personal money from mass
fear and the resulting buffoonery gives us the opportunity to at5 last
talk about it all. Don’t see it. Spend the $15 on more gas for your SUV
and go for a big long burn, before Gore and his fanatical friends make
you all get bikes. The inconvenient truth is that climate scientists
need research funding to put meals on the table. That's science reality
today. End of story.
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OCTOBER MOON
6th: Crossing Equator
7th: Full Moon
7th: Perigee #3
12th: Northern Declination
14th: Last Quarter
19th: Apogee
20th: Crossing Equator
22nd: New Moon
27th: Southern Declination
30th: 1st Quarter
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Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
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