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Weather ezine Nov 25, 2006
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Ken Ring
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Nov 24, 2006 17:30 PST
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WEATHER EZINE Nov 25, 2006
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Current Moon
28th: 1st quarter
30th: crossing equator
2nd: perigee(#11th closest)
5th: full moon
6th: northern declination
The moon was at the southern declination on Thursday the 23rd, which is
why temperatures seem so cool at the moment in many areas. Coupled with
new moon which is a day moon, colder air descends at night and the
morning air takes a while to warm. We are around midpoint
apogee/perigee, and in midpoint astrology midpoints bring wind. The moon
swings closer to the earth next Saturday (Dec 2nd), two days after it
crosses the equator(Nov 30), and both of those events bring a faster
moon, and more turbulence which means more strong winds. The winds blow
the rain in and then out again quite quickly, the weather systems move
faster which means coming weather around the last days of the month
should be very changeable. We have the Full moon on the Monday just
after next weekend, and because it usually rains about two days after a
spring/summer full moon, so there should be more rain arriving for most
areas the following Thursday and Friday (7-8 Dec).
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Coming up
Fine for the next few days for most, except the far north on the west
coast. After this weekend expect bad weather in the form of (mainly
morning) rain setting in Wed or Thurs, especially for Wellington.
There'll be heavy rain warnings out for Coromandel, BoP, New Plymouth,
Nelson, South Island west coast and parts of Southland like Queenstown
and Gore. The storm won't hang around for too long and it should all be
over by next weekend(Dec 2nd/3rd).
Overall
Good rain around and warmer temps because of increased cloud cover,
which means good pasture growth for the farmers. The next big events to
affect everyone may be rain in the last two days of November and then
again in the second week(7th-10th) of December.
Good weekends for Xmas parties
This weekend is a good one, next weekend is okay, but the next three
weekends (that's Dec 9/10, 16/17 and 23/24) are a bit iffy.
A good time to think about an early holiday or for holding Xmas events
on is from 19 Dec onwards. Apart from the weekend just before Xmas,
there should be mostly dry days from the 19th until the end of December
for most of NZ except for the South Island west coast and the far south.
Temperatures
Temps will be a bit cooler over the next few days, they'll warm up a bit
in the first week of December, but from mid Dec onwards they'll cool
right down. Some places will get hot days from northwesterlies, (for
instance Canterbury on the weekend before Xmas may have some above 30
maximums), but most of us, even traditionally hot places like Nelson,
Kerikeri and Tauranga are not likely to get near 30degC this summer. So
it may not be a slip, slap, slop kind of season. Close perigees and full
moons, and further away apogees and new moons become less potent from
December to February but by late February closer perigees will again
accompany New moons which will start coming closer. That means that we
will again get a cooler autumn in the S hem. In the N hem, winter snows
will be late and should continue into May and even June in some areas.
The hottest part of summer for the S hem could be before Xmas except for
areas prone to strong NWs like Canterbury. In the N hem winter snows
will be late and should continue next year into May and even June in
some areas.
January
We are into cyclone weather, January is going to be quite wet and
coolish, especially the second week. The first week will be okay in
Canterbury, and the last week in January will be dry in Wellington and
Christchurch, but in Auckland only Jan 21-27 should be fairly rain-free.
February
From the 18th onwards it may be mostly dry in the North Island, but the
South Island, apart from the third week, has more fine days throughout
the whole month.
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Climate Change (as in 'money')
The World Bank etc used to monitor gold reserves. The World Bank and IMF
act out of the UN. So does the IPCC. Somewhat like the old world system
where a country's gold reserves were the base value of its national
currency, today the base value of a country or forest groups carbon
emission certificates is not so much gold as sequestrated carbon. In
short, a forest, under government control, is money in the government
bank, suitable for gambling in an international carbon trading exchange,
just as gold trading once operated. International carbon trading has
just begun, worth 22 billion US dollars. Governments are punters in this
casino armed with chips paid for, as usual by the sweat of others.
Alarmingly, between February 2005 when the Kyoto protocol came into
effect and November 1st, 2006, the value of sequestrated carbon dropped
from 29.6 euros per tonne to 10.30 euros per tonne, representing a drop
of 19.30 euros per tonne. Suddenly trading chips on the world stage
became less valuable. The only way to restore value to the 'gold' was by
whipping up climate change hysteria in the hope that public pressure
would drive carbon emitting industries back to the emission certificate
trading auctions. More action on the floor of the casino ensures a
bigger purse for the house. A bigger purse means more trading
opportunities and ultimately more winnings for players who think they
are in good positions. In a similar way that the world of antique
furniture operates, increased trading raises stakes. So the countries
wishing to capitalise more in this casino of opportunity are the
governments spending more on research and hype for 'climate change'.
There are billions if not trillions of dollars involved in such a long
term globalised venture. Thus it is safe for the state-funded puppet
scientists to talk about the dire threat of temperature increases over
the next century and the one after that. But it is money, not truth. The
scientist or climatologist who is disloyal to the bandwagon is soon out
of a job and can not provide meals for his family.
There is no shortage of suckers falling prey to the Stern Review
spin-doctoring commissioned by the UK government, despite evidence that
it is scaremongering-perpetuated to secure this enormous financial gain
for the carbon emission certificate traders. The attempts to continually
gag opposition voices is now legion from the idiotic talk of scientific
consensus to the shutdown of opposing media viewpoints. I have not been
able to get a letter printed in the NZ Herald for some time now,
although I write one almost every week. I know of others with the same
frustration. The result is that the public believe there is no
alternative viewpoint.
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The Lunar Code
This is the title of my new book published by Random House NZ and
released into shops about a month ago. It is basically about natural
cycles which account for all the major "shifts" in climate that have
been observed. Unless natural cycles are considered first, any notion of
man's involvement is irrelevant. But in today's hysteria about climate
change, the effort to rediscover cycles is cast aside as an irrelevant
pursuit, in favour of a linear and unidirectional process whereby
weather and climate are somehow heading downwards into oblivion. We
should remember that meteorology was invented by astrologers, whose
tools were cycles. Along came religion that threatened this, because a
chaotic random world creates a job for a deity, a Saviour, who can be
prayed to to sort it all out. Many want to be Saviours. They go by names
like Al Gore, Jeanette Fitzsimons, Tony Blair, Pete Hodgson/David
Parker. The Church was long involved in suppressing science because it
stopped people attending church. The global warming scenario and the
notion of man as an evil being wrecking the pristine world of God is the
legacy. You can still be a Christian and support astrology. You can
allow others with alternative ideas to live and let live. But alarmists
always focus on insecurity and invent scapegoats. Longrange forecasterrs
uphold natural cycles and try to rescue people from terror-ism as
propounded by the likes of Al Gore, Greenpeace and state-paid greenie
scientists.
The Lunar Code is an attempt to furnish the weather buff with tools for
weather prediction, both short and long term. The main cycles of the
moon are described, with reasons, and starting points are outlined for
farmers etc for anyone wanting to predict coming seasons. The workable
rules are there, such as how the moon causes barometric change when it
changes hemispheres, how the air-tide operates and what happens when the
peaks of different cycles engage together. But there is more, with the
way the moon fits into the interconnected system we call the cosmos. The
Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ at $39.
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NZ forecast, from Predict Weather Almanac 2006
General for the rest of November
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 29th-31st .
Western, Central North Is: 29th-30th (heavier , 29th).
Taupo: 29th-30th (heavier, 29th)
Gisborne, HB:29th-30th (heavier, 29th).
Lower North Is: 29th-30th (heavier, 29th).
Nelson and Marlborough: 28th-30th (heavier, 29th).
Canterbury: 28th-30th
Otago: 22nd-26th, 31st (heavier 26th)
Southland and Dunedin, 28th
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 9th-31st (heavier 9th-31st).
NOVEMBER
25th: Moderate SW winds. Mainly fine in Northland and Auckland. Rest of
NI; cloudy with light winds. For SI. Mainly fine.
26th: Light variable winds, mainly fine.
27th: For whole country; fine with cloud.
29th: Moist northerlies bring abrupt change. Scattered rain developing.
30th: Fresh NEs and rain at first. Change to NWs and rain easing.
MOON IN NOVEMBER
28th: 1st Quarter
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DECEMBER
December may be generally drier than average for most areas. For both
islands the least rain could be 5th, 20th and 28th, and most rain around
8th. Exceptions in the N Is. may be Dargaville, Coromandel, Rotorua and
Taupo which may be wetter than normal. Also. Te Puke and Wellington
could have average rain. In the S Is, Nelson and Motueka may be wetter
than average. The rest should be drier. Total sunshine should be
slightly more than average for the North Island, and even more than the
norm for the South Island. The areas with the most sunshine will
probably be Wanganui and Blenheim. Lowest sunshine figures could be in
Auckland and Ashburton. As for temperatures, in the NI, Kerikeri,
Dargaville, Whakatane and Opotiki may be slightly cooler than average.
The rest may be average to warmer. In the S Is, Nelson, Timaru and
Oamaru may be slightly cooler, with the rest warmer than average..
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st-2nd, 7th-11th, 14th-18th, 22nd-26th (heavier
7th-9th)
Western, Central North Is: 1st, 7th-11th, 14th, 17th-18th, 23rdh
(heavier 9th)
Taupo: 1st, 7th-11th, 14th-18th, 23rd-24th, 30th (heavier 9th)
Gisborne, HB:1st-2nd, 9th-11th, 17th-18th, 24th-26th (heavier 25th)
Lower North Is: 1st, 7th-12th, 14th, 17th-18th, 23rd (heavier 8th-9th,
12th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 1st, 7th-14th, (heavier 9th)
Canterbury: 1st, 7th, 10th-14th, 18th, 30th (heavier 12th)
Otago: 3rd-4th, 7th-9th, 10th-12th, 17th-18th, 22nd-23rd, 30th (heavier
7th, 17th, 22nd)
Southland and Dunedin: 3rd, 7th-10th, 17th-24th, 29th-30th (heavier
22th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 7th-12th, 17th-19th, 22nd-23rd, 29th-30th
(heavier 7th, 17th, 23rd)
DAILY FOR DECEMBER
1st: A depression passes over the country, followed by cool Ss.
2nd: Moderate Es. Some cloudy areas but mainly fine. Some cloud on E
coasts and isolated showers in far N. Rest of country; dry.
3rd: An anticyclone covers NZ. Also some cloudy periods with isolated
showers, especially in afternoon and evening.
4th: Another anticyclone passes over the country and intensifies,
moving eastward. Fine weather apart from some cloudy periods.
5th: Fine weather, moderate E winds. Mild during the day.
6th: Continuing fine conditions. Warm NE winds predominating, warm in
the afternoon.
7th: A NE airstream covers the country. Scattered rain soon developing
over N half of NI, into Nelson and along the W coast of the SI. Rest of
country fine.
8th: A large trough in the Tasman sea creates warm moist northerlies
over NZ.
9th: Fresh NEs bring rain to whole country, some heavy falls likely.
10th: Moderate NWs predominating. Showers Northland and Auckland. Rain
easing from BoP to Taupo. Gis/HB mainly fine, also lower NI to PN. Rain
from Wellington to Southland.
11th: Moderate Ws developing with showers.
13th: A shallow trough of low pressure is followed by a ridge of high
pressure brings anticyclonic conditions.
14th: Showers and mostly light winds from Northland to Gis, heavier
rain in W of NI. In HB; mostly fine. Wanganui and Wellington, also
Nelson nad Marl to Invercargill; fine with light breezes. SI W coast
mainly fine.
15th: Light winds apart from afternoon sea breezes. Mostly fine but
isolated afternoon showers, mainly in inland areas. Mild. Some showers
in Whangarei but rest of NZ should stay dry.
17th: NW airstream spreads onto the country. Fine and sunny with
variable winds. Cloudy in top half of NI. Fine from Gis to Timaru. Brief
rain in Southland.
18th: Rain in W regions. Mild NE winds, cloudy, with showers developing
later for all areas from Northland to Taranaki. Gis/HB; dry. In E of SI,
brief rain. Clearing in W coast of SI.
19th: A cold front brings SWs, but no change to drought-stricken areas
in the E. Fine apart from morning showers. Kaitaia to Taupo; showers
clearing. Elsewhere fine or becoming fine. Some showers in Southland.
21st: An anticyclone moves onto NZ from the Tasman Sea, bringing fine
weather to all regions. Light wiunds, mild temperatures. Becoming sunny
everywhere.
23rd: Strong NWs affect NZ bringing high temperatures to the E of the
SI. Mainly dry and cloudy. For Northland rain and Auckland to Taranaki
including PN, Wgtn and the W coast of both islands, also Nelson; showers
developing. From Gis to Masterton, also Marl high cloud but mainly fine.
Cant and Otago; gusty NWs and rain occasional developing. Oamaru
southward; SW change brings showers.
24th: NWs moderating. Rain beginning to ease from Northland to S
Waikato including BoP and Gis. From HB to Otago; mainly fine. Southland;
Ws with decreasing showers. 26th: Fine for most areas apart from a few
cloudy periods. In Kaitaia NEs and some showers. For the rest of
Northland, Auckland and BoP/Rotorua; E-NEs and cloudy. From HB southward
including most of SI; fine.
27th: Moderate Es with much cloud. In Northland some rain persists about
far N and Whangarei. Cloudy but dry for Dargaville, Auckland,
BoP/Rotorua, Waikato, Taupo, Gis/HB and the lower NI to Masterton.
Elsewhere including all SI; light winds and fine.
28th: Large anticyclone covers NZ. Light to moderate variable winds.
Cloudy in some places but mainly fine for all districts.
30th: Cloudy at first but long sunny periods for all. Moderate sea
breezes.
31st: Continuing fine and sunny for most. Occasional rain and light Ns
in Invercargill.
A 24 hour error may apply to all of the above forecasts, with chances of
more skewing of readings around perigee(2nd), Full moon(5th),
apogee(14th), New moon(21st), perigee(28th).
MOON IN DECEMBER
2nd: Perigee #11
5th: Full Moon
6th: Northern Declination
13th: Last Quarter
13th: Crossing Equator
14st: Apogee
21st: New Moon
21st: Southern Declination
27th: Crossing Equator
28th: Perigee #14
28th: 1st Quarter
A 24 hour error may apply to all of the above forecasts, with chances of
more skewing of readings around perigee(2nd), Full moon(5th),
apogee(14th) and New moon(21st).
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December and Xmas holidays
A big low is expected from the west bringing a lot of rain. This should
mostly affect the second week of December. NIWA are already talking
about more cyclones this summer. The weather should be pleasant from
about the middle of the December onward apart from the usual odd
showers. And apart from isolated overnight falls, Xmas Day should be
mostly dry except in Dargaville and Gisborne.
The last few days of the year may also be pleasant for all, including
NYE and NYD, but then everything may turn to custard. 2007 summer should
not start properly until the third week in February, due to the cyclones
in January and February bringing much rain to the NI. In 2007 an
increase in NEs will make the top half of the NI wetter and warmer.
However the southern half of the NI and most of the SI should still have
a drier and warmer year. Exceptions in the NI will be Gisborne, Napier
and Masterton wetter and warmer, and in the SI Timaru and Oamaru could
be drier and cooler. April may be the sunniest month.. But people will
be discussing when we are going to see our long hot summer coming,
because it won't be apparent.
December and later in Feb/March may be the best periods to go on
holidays. March 6-20 may only have about 3 rain days in that interval.
Best time to take holidays in the NI over summer will be Dec
25th-31st(both islands), Jan 3rd-7th(SI), Feb 19th-28th(NI, Marl. and
Cant), March 13th-21st(both islands), and April 10th-17th(both islands).
Auckland and Northland may get too little rain for the second half of
February. After a wet January and February the autumn should be drier
than average in the NI, and average in the SI. All of March for Waikato
could be dry.
As in 2006, in 2007 the first half of winter will be the worst, when
much rain comes to the NI and heavy rain and snow for the SI from a
destructive cold snap in the second week of June The first week of July
brings another cold wintry blast. The end of winter in August will be
considerably drier. September to October will be the cloudiest period
which will mean a warmer spring.
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2007 Almanacs
Next year's NZ book is now in shops. Look for the bright green cover
with Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' splendid photo of the Lindis
Pass on the front. The 2007 Australian Almanac is also out. Published by
Random House Australia it is available in all Australian bookshops or
orderable as Predict Weather for Australia 2007, Almanac and Isobaric
Maps. It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States in nearly
500-pages. There are frost, flood, fog, snow, storm and hail diaries,
main city summaries, extreme weather events, daily readouts and heaps
more. A little secret is that the almanacs ALSO can be used for the
remainder of this year. The rule is, you subtract 355 days from what is
in the almanac and you get very roughly corresponding dates to this
year. That's because the moon was in the sky in roughly the same place
355 days ago(actually 354.7) which is the Lunar Year.
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Tropical cyclones and rain coming
About 5 cyclones are expected between December 2006 and May 2007.
Effects are likely mid January, after mid February, in second week of
March and the third week in April. The West Coast may see some
disastrous weather in the first week of March. March will be a bad month
weatherwise for many. Wellington will be affected by storms in the
fourth week of April. The worst of SI weather may be about mid June.
October will be a bad rain month for the NI, and the top and west of the
SI. November will bring widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe
December weather just before New Years Eve will close the year with some
drama.
January
Cyclone 12-15th
January 8th: Effects of cyclone blow across north of NI affecting
Auckland and Northland, high winds and gales in exposed places.
15th, Beginning of 9 days of rain in western BOP.
16th, Rain from the edge of a tropical cyclone may affect Coromandel
over the next 2 days.
25th, Continuing rain starts to affect Northland crops.
30th, Flooding and slips may close NI roads.
February
Cyclone 8th-13th, 21st-28th in Fiji.
Most of the rain for both islands comes in the first half of the month.
It gets better after the 17th.
February 1st; Prolonged heavy rain starts to affect Auck and Hamilton
stone fruit crops.
March
Cyclones 1st-2nd, 10th-11th
Next winter
June to mid July will again be the coldest period. Some real heavy snows
will be coming again but rather than sudden cold snaps, next year should
see more regular snow events. 2007's coldest winter temperatures will be
in first half of the season up till mid July.
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Australia
Notes for regions, extracts from radio interviews
Darwin notes(ABC Darwin) 22/9/06
November, the second half of the month brings rain, perhaps about 80mm.
December is going to be a cracker, with the first cyclone due to dump on
Darwin in the second week of the month - between 10th-14th I expect
300mm. It'll affect Katherine too. From Dec 21st-27th there may be
another lot from another cyclone.
In 2007over January, all the first half of the month should be wet every
day, and rain also on the last 3 days of the month. In Feb, again all
the first half of the month wet every day, clearing about the 14th and
then rain returning about the 24th and continuing until March 6.
From 9 March through to 12 May you won't have to wait more than 4 days
for at least some rain and the monsoon season will stop abruptly in the
middle of May. Apart from one little sprinkle on June 17 Darwin will be
mostly dry right from mid May until October 25 .
I don't think it will be an extra hot summer. Around the middle of
October will be unusually warm, also the second week in November, and
the last few days of Nov. I don't expect temps to go much above 35
often, if at all. The highest temps will be at the end of Feb which is
in the middle of a cyclone so it won't be hot sun then.
Sydney notes (2UE on Saturday 1/10/06 and 2GB on 3/10/06)
November will give you some rain in the first and third weeks. Temps
will rise around Nov 6th(FM) and stay high til about the 9th when it
will be a N dec, and I expect temps then to be up around the 40s. I've
got your hottest day all month on Nov 10. (Up date: the 11th was the
hottest until the 21st) December may be a wet month, coming up to the
FM+N dec on the 5th and 6th temps will rise again. Dec may be especially
wet in the last ten days. Just before New Year expect a deluge, further
north on the QSLD coast, around December 30th, and rain from about the
19th-26th. So Xmas Day might be a bit wet for Sydney.Year 2007 should be
a drier than normal year but it won't feel that way until down to about
July, because there'll be a lot of gray skies even though months will
have below average rain. For instance it will feel like a rainy January,
the first week in February will be wet, March mostly cloudy so good for
gardeners, April a rainy Easter weekend, May will feel dismal, so the
firsat half of the year will be grey and gloomy. Having said that the
dams may be okay. July and August bring clearer skies and they'll be
cold months as a result, Sept no rain at all, and October the same.
Melbourne mostly dry until next March
December should bring some relief in the first week of the month, with
about a week of rain commencing at or near the 4th.
Brisbane in 2006
Brisbane to get rain
December, good rain amounts expected in the third and fourth weeks. 2007
is expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with the wettest
months likely to be April and May.
October, just about no rain at all,
November, a drier than normal month and
December, a wetter month also.
Adelaide
Adelaide can expect about 4 rain days in November, with small amounts
from each. December should be no better, with about 5 rain days. 2007 is
expected to be an overall drier than normal year, with no months likely
to be wetter than average.
Canberra rain relief
In the last days of November and throughout December good rain should
put smiles on farmers' faces. The first half of January will also be
wet. February will be very dry and rain will return in the last week of
March. For Canberra, 2007 is expected to be an overall wetter than
normal year, with autumn likely to be wetter than average. Coming up,
look out for warmer weather mid Oct. The hottest time will be before
Xmas because the moon's perigee sweep-by will be further away from earth
in Dec and Jan, so the temps won't climb as high. The hottest above-30
day of summer for Canberra should be mid Nov, I'd say Nov 14th. Other
hot days hovering around 30s should be at mid and end of this Oct, the
middle and end of Nov, and the middle and end of Dec/first week of Jan.
There will still be other hot spots though, like 19 Jan which may also
be over 30 but not as high as in mid Nov, also as the moon starts to
come in again early in 2007 the temps may climb to around 30s for Feb
18-29, March 8-10 and 16-19. On March 21st the moon will be 4th closest
to earth for the year and should be the last time the temps go anywhere
near 30 for the summer season. After that temps for Canberra will drop
sharply into autumn mode. Subzero temps should click in around June 24
and end in mid Oct, with the coldest part of next winter happening in
late July/early August.
Perth
2006 Months ahead
December will be a dry month, only 3 rain days. Xmas Day fine(dry Dec
15-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry 30th-8th)
Q/A
1. What will xmas and new year be like later this year and also in 2007;
Xmas Day fine(dry from Dec 15th-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry from Dec
30th-Jan 8th)
2, What would be the best day to play golf on, not too hot, no rain and
little wind, what day of the week should it be?
Avoid February
3. When should we be booking our holidays??
Many fine periods. First half of Feb too hot - on 40s.
4. Summer was late this year, are we likely to have our heat waves in
April next year as well?
No
5. So, is there any predicted rainfall for next year.
Overall a drier than average year, wettest half will be second half,
wettest months Aug and then Oct.
Hobart notes
2006 Months ahead
Nov some rain, heavier at end of mth
Dec rain in first 12 days the 22nd/23rd, dry Xmas Day
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Inconvenient Truths
<http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=48>
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=48
The full article is in the above link.
Since 1998 the globe has been cooling and 1922 was the hottest on
record. ref: <http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/scienceques2001/20020524.htm>
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/scienceques2001/20020524.htm
"..the hottest temperature ever recorded anywhere on the globe (136 F at
Al' Aziziyah, Libya in September of 1922) occurred well before global
warming was a buzzword.." And 1998? Well obviously, if 1998 was the
hottest in recent times then the globe has been cooling ever since. If
we were getting steadily hotter then the year just gone should always
have been the hottest yet.
The thermometer was only invented 300-yrs ago. So it is still unclear
whether this 4-billion year old world is suuposed to be in a heating or
a cooling phase. After about half a billion years we might have a
clearer picture. At least the NZ Metservice could tell you that Auckland
has NOT been warming. I have continuous Albert Park Station (Station
A64871) maximum and minimum temperature measurements beginning 1/1/30
until 15/12/84, once belonging to and collected by Lands and Survey but
now the property of NIWA, from whom I bought it. Anyone can buy this as
I did. Over those 54 years, the average maximum temp is 19degC and
average minimum 12degC. Cutting this in half to see any change, the
first 27 years shows an average maximum of 19degC and average minimum of
12degC. The next 27 years is exactly the same. Anybody can check these
figures. So no temperature change AT ALL in Auckland over 54 years,
according to our own scientists, and this covers the so-called post-war
industrial period, when CO2 was supposed to have increased. Albert Park
stopped continous gathering in 1984 and from then until 1990 was only
sporadic. However, there is a little period of two years where a bunch
of uninterrupted data occurs, being all of 1988 -1989, and the maximum
and minimum averages over this two year period is again 19C and 12C. So
where is this warming? I have since seen averages for Auckland being
quoted as 21degC for max and 14degC for min over the past 20 years, so
obviously this is for a different Auckland or from data collected at
different stations so it cannot be considered part of the above
exercise. It would be very weird though in a global sense if one part of
Auckland showed a warming representative of a supposedly warming globe,
whilst temperatures in another part of Auckland, especially a park well
away from increasing concrete, glass and vehicles, have stayed constant
for 60 years.
In Gore's film, much is made of a chart with the CO² and the world’s
temperatures fitting together almost perfectly with graphs that go back
hundreds of thousands of years using ice data, irrefutable photographic
records of ice shelves melting, and computer generated images of major
cities including New York and the World Trade Centre being inundated
with water…etc. but it is all computer extrapolation. Naturally they
will choose graphs that fit together perfectly, they are making a movie,
and it's Hollywood. The same models when run forwards fail to predict
current weather.
One is left wondering if nature is responsible for anything. Gore's CO2
graph starts at 350ppm and rises alarmingly to 380ppm. But how about
starting the 'y' axis at zero, as a graph is supposed to do. Then the
CO2 rise, which is only an increase of 30 parts per million, would
appear very insignificant. Do you know how tiny 30 ppm is? In a room of
normal height, about 3m, it is a tenth of a mm upwards, about the
thickness of newsprint or a human hair.
Gore’s film is really a party political broadcast and a doco about a
failed politician with a hairbrained scheme based on manufactured fear
that everybody at the time switched off from because it was a doomed and
flawed cause. The US Congress wanted no part of the Kyoto Protocol. Gore
brings in his family - his sister died of lung cancer, his son had an
accident, and his father either raised Angus bulls, grew tobacco or
spent his days in Congress - it was hard to tell exactly which, but it
is supposed to convince us he is a caring person. But the caring stops
there, because then come the waves of blame - it is all our fault. Gore
is no better than hellfire and brimstone religious bullies who come to
your nearest town, put up a tent, take money as donations for "the
cause" (the Al Gore Fund) and run off, suitcases bulging.
Gore is dangerous to your health. If it is left to him, every industry
that burns any fuel, which means run an engine, will be taxed. What a
victory for the world he wasn’t elected. But our PM and government
agrees with him, so that they can pocket the taxes in his name and
cause. Meanwhile Gore travels the world in gas-guzzling jets, delivering
night time slide shows which burn electricity, whilst telling us all to
do the opposite.
Some facts need to be pointed out by at least one of the skeptics that
Gore does not believe exist any more. The planet warmed until 1940, then
cooled until around 1970 before warming again until 1998 -- producing a
net warming of around 0.6 degrees. Arctic was as warm or warmer in 1940.
The Greenland ice sheet is actually growing. On average Greenland was
warmer in the 1920s and 1930s than it is now. Polar bears have always
migrated to land in late summer when sea ice naturally melts back, and
then return to the ice when it re-freezes. Only 20,000 years ago, great
ice sheets covered much of North America and Europe; permanent glaciers
were also present over southeastern Australia and Tasmania. The sea
level was 130m lower than today and land bridges connected New Guinea
and Tasmania with the Australian mainland. CO2 is PLANT FOOD. As a
greenhouse gas, it is a spent force for climate change; its present
concentration is slightly less than 400 parts per million. 66 per cent
of the greenhouse effect of CO2 is caused by the first 50ppm. With each
doubling of concentration, (from 50 to 100, then to 200 and 400ppm), the
incremental advance of the greenhouse effect is reduced. Even for a
further doubling to 800ppm, as projected by 2100 in the case of unabated
fossil fuel usage, the increase in the greenhouse effect will only be 10
per cent of the present component attributable to CO2. Overall, CO2 is a
relatively minor contributor to the greenhouse effect, which is
dominated by the varying water vapour and clouds of the atmosphere.
Therefore any increasing of the CO2 concentration will have little
additional effect. There was as much CO2 in the atmosphere about 11,000
years ago as there is today.
Global warming is constrained by the need to warm the ocean in advance.
The polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are fundamentally
stable. Ice cores recovered from there confirm that the ice sheets have
survived previous interglacials and have likely existed for more than
one million years. The surface elevation of the ice sheets is more than
3km above sea level across much of their extensive plateaus and
temperatures remain below minus 10C during the brief summer. Today's
temperature at Antarctica is -46degC. It is only at the lower elevations
of the coastal margins that temperatures rise above freezing for a few
months and the strong solar radiation causes ice-melt. At the highest
height the sun ever reaches in the Antarctic summer, about 18deg above
the horizon, this can be likened to the sun at 4pm over Auckland. Not
only is it not hot enough to melt anything, the rays certainly can't
reach through the ozone hole and around the curvature of the earth to
reach NZ to form skin cancer.
Collapse of the polar ice sheets and a sea level rise of several metres
is an unlikely scenario. Temp at the S pole has declined by more than
1degC since 1950. The area of sea ice around Antarctica has increased
over past 20 yrs. The place is getting cooler.
Australia (except for the southwest corner) was wetter during the second
half of the 20th century than during the first. The sea level has been
rising at a rate of 1.8 mm per year for the past 8,000 years; the
Australian National Tidal Facility at Tuvalu in 2002 reported: "The
historical record from 1978 through 199 indicated a sea level rise of
0.07 mm per year." Or the width of a hair.
Coral reefs have been around for over 500 million years. This means that
they have survived through long periods with much higher temperatures
and atmospheric CO2 concentrations than today.
Gore's movie provides an opportunity to spur public debate on the global
warming issue. It is critically important for us to become better
informed about global warming, how much of it is natural versus manmade
and so for once and for all we can wipe away the scammers that play on
our fears for their own profit. By now he probably believes the junk
science, but Gore in his opportunism of reaping personal money from mass
fear and the resulting buffoonery gives us the opportunity to at last
talk about it all. Don’t see it. Spend the $15 on more gas for your SUV
and go for a big long burn, before Gore and his fanatical friends make
you all get bikes. The inconvenient truth is that climate scientists
need research funding to put meals on the table. That's science reality
today.
Another inconvenient truth is that Al Gore's visit to NZ coincided with
an initiative by him to present his business plan to his handpicked
invited audience of business high flyers. Oh, you haven't heard? In 2004
Gore founded, (along with David Blood the former chief of Goldman Sachs)
Generation Investment Management, a multlmillion dollar environmental
global investment scheme which he fronts. The firm, controlling $750
million dollars, levies a fee to companies which belong. Longterm
investments are based on climate sustainability assets, and include
pension schemes like the NZ Superannuation Fund. Assessment is linked to
investment performance on a rolling three-year basis. While here, Gore
met with Paul Dyer, NZ Super Fund chief investment officer. Coicidence?
Read about Gore's little earner here.
<http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/28075/story.htm>
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/28075/story.htm
And you thought Gore was in NZ to talk about global warming???
Oh pl-ease.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
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