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Weather ezine December 18, 2006
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Ken Ring
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Dec 18, 2006 12:45 PST
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WEATHER EZINE December 18, 2006
CURRENT MOON
XMAS DAY
SUMMER
TEMPERATURES
BEST TIME TO TAKE HOLIDAYS
EL NINO
UK WINTER
WEATHER IN DUBLIN
AUSTRALIAN WEATHER
CLIMATE CHANGE
AL GORE
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Current Moon
20th: new moon
21st: southern declination
27th: crossing equator heading north
28th: perigee #14, 1st Q
The new moon on Wednesday indicates that any rain mid week will be
mostly overnight. On Thursday the moon is at its southernmost point for
the month, and that usually brings cooler temperatures. The maximums
will be down to about 17 or 18deg. Rain develops on the weekend before
Xmas, and Xmas Day is next Monday, but most places should clear up by
then. Because of the Southern position of the moon there may even be
snow on Southland hills on Wed morning. We have said frosts in some
places before Xmas, like Taihape, Wairarapa and Southland and this could
be some of them.
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Xmas day
Most areas should be dry and just recovering from recent rain. Take an
umbrella if you're going to Dargaville or Gisborne, as there might be
the odd shower there. Anyone planning an event on Xmas Day can be fairly
confident of good weather. It may not be all that hot in Auckland on the
day, only about 20C, Wellington 17C, Christchurch 19 or 20C, Dunedin
18C, Queenstown 20C, Oamaru 16 and Invercargill 15. Temperatures may
rise after Xmas Day and perhaps get up around 30C for the New Year in
Christchurch and Ashburton.
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Temperatures
It has been fairly cool, which has helped to cause the rain to come, but
we have had some hot days and there will be more before the end of the
year. There will also be cooler days than expected, and may even be
frosts in Taihape and Wairarapa before Xmas and in the far south in the
first week in January, then possibly again in the second and last weeks
of February.
The second half of December was always going to be rather dry for S Cant
- I have only about 13mm for the month earmarked for Ashburton.
Canterbury on the weekend before Xmas may have some above 30 maximums,
also in the second week of January and the first week of February, but
most of us, even traditionally hot places like Nelson, Kerikeri and
Tauranga are not likely to get many days over 25degC this summer. In
Nelson I have over 25C in the first week of Jan and the first week of
Feb and that could be as high as it might get. So it may not be a slip,
slap, slop kind of season. In Invercargill I have mainly dry conditions
around the 24th-29th December. Close perigees and full moons, and
further away apogees and new moons become less potent from December to
February but by late February closer perigees will again accompany New
moons which will start coming closer. That means that we will again get
a cooler autumn in the S hem. In the N hem, winter snows will be late
and snow or hailstorms should continue into May and even June in some
areas.
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Summer
Long dry days may be late arriving for the North Island because of
cyclonic conditions, but after Feb 18 more settled weather is expected
and March and April will be like a late summer. If you have to take a
holiday in December go after Boxing day and if you have to go in
January, go after the 21st. But for more than a whole week of clear
weather you may have to wait till Feb 17th onwards.
Best time to take holidays
Dec 25th-31st(both islands),
Jan 3rd-7th(SI),
Feb 19th-28th(NI, Marl. and Cant),
March 13th-21st(both islands), and
April 10th-17th(both islands). January
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January
January is probably going to be wet, windy and coolish, especially the
second week. The first week should be okay in Canterbury, and the last
week in January should be dry in Wellington and Christchurch, but in
Auckland only the week of Jan 21-27 may be fairly rain-free.
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February
From the 18th onwards it may be mostly dry in the North Island, but the
South Island has more fine days. Watch, though for widespread rain for
both islands in the third week.
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Australian Weather, rest of 2006
Rain in the next few days from lows looks set to affect the north of WA,
the NW of NT and QSLD. Parts of VIC look set to receive rain as a front
sweeps through the Bight. A high in the middle of the Bight is fairly
stationary as is a slow-moving high approaching Perth. Rain should
spread to cover most of NT, and in the SE, spread up the NSW coast and
into south QSLD. By 20th most States should clear, although a low should
persist about Pilbara. By 21st this deepens, sending rain over much of
N, cent and E WA, but leaving the west and south dry. Rain should also
spread into NT affecting all except the NE, E of the State. Most of the
eastern half of Australia should stay dry. The next rain is likely by
24th, in N WA and cent and S coasts of WA. Rain is also likely in NT
around NW and N coasts. Sydney southwards to Canberra may also expect
light showers within 24 hours. By 26th low pressure sits across the
centre of Australia from W to E whilst high pressure covers the bottom
of the country coast to coast. The 27th brings rain to the N of NT and
central W of NT, also south coasts of SA, and E coasts of N VIC and S
NSW, possibly spreading north to Brisbane. About 27th a high covers the
south of WA. By 28th a tropical cyclone may make an appearance N of WA
and start heading SW towards Port Hedland. Rain may also come to N and
cent NT, also SW of WA, the E coasts of VIC, NSW and QSLD. Some southern
parts of Cape Peninsular may also benefit. This state of affairs should
continue till about 30th of December. The cyclonic event may end up
around NW Cape by the end of the month.
Jan 2 - 6, 2007 (3rd=N dec, 4th=FM)
Sydney, sun and passing showers,
Melbourne, Perth, fine and sunny,
Adelaide rain on 1st/2nd, 3-6 fine,
Brisbane mainly fine but also odd passing showers during 2-6,
Darwin rain 3-6th,
Hobart fine and sunny until rain on 6th
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Sydney notes (2UE )
December may be wet in the last ten days. Just before New Year expect a
deluge, further north on the QSLD coast, around December 30th, and rain
from about the 19th-26th. So Xmas Day might be a bit wet for Sydney.Year
2007 should be a drier than normal year but it won't feel that way until
down to about July, because there'll be a lot of gray skies even though
months will have below average rain. For instance it will feel like a
rainy January, the first week in February will be wet, March mostly
cloudy so good for gardeners, April a rainy Easter weekend, May will
feel dismal, so the firsat half of the year will be grey and gloomy.
Having said that the dams may be okay. July and August bring clearer
skies and they'll be cold months as a result, Sept no rain at all, and
October the same.
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Brisbane in 2006
2007 is expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with the
wettest months likely to be April and May.
October, just about no rain at all,
November, a drier than normal month and
December, a wetter month also.
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Adelaide 2007 is expected to be an overall drier than normal year, with
no months likely to be wetter than average.
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Canberra rain relief
The first half of January may be wet. February should be very dry and
rain may return in the last week of March. For Canberra, 2007 is
expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with autumn likely to
be wetter than average. Coming up, look out for warmer weather mid Oct.
The hottest time will be before Xmas because the moon's perigee sweep-by
will be further away from earth in Dec and Jan, so the temps won't climb
as high. The hottest above-30 day of summer for Canberra should be mid
Nov, I'd say Nov 14th. Other hot days hovering around 30s should be at
mid and end of this Oct, the middle and end of Nov, and the middle and
end of Dec/first week of Jan. There will still be other hot spots
though, like 19 Jan which may also be over 30 but not as high as in mid
Nov, also as the moon starts to come in again early in 2007 the temps
may climb to around 30s for Feb 18-29, March 8-10 and 16-19. On March
21st the moon will be 4th closest to earth for the year and should be
the last time the temps go anywhere near 30 for the summer season. After
that temps for Canberra will drop sharply into autumn mode. Subzero
temps should click in around June 24 and end in mid Oct, with the
coldest part of next winter happening in late July/early August.
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Perth
-Xmas Day fine(dry Dec 15-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry 30th-8th)
Q/A
1. What will xmas and new year be like later this year and also in 2007;
Xmas Day fine(dry from Dec 15th-28th), NYE and NYD fine(dry from Dec
30th-Jan 8th)
2, What would be the best day to play golf on, not too hot, no rain and
little wind, what day of the week should it be?
Avoid February
3. When should we be booking our holidays??
Many fine periods. First half of Feb too hot - on 40s.
4. Summer was late this year, are we likely to have our heat waves in
April next year as well?
No
5. So, is there any predicted rainfall for next year.
Overall a drier than average year, wettest half will be second half,
wettest months Aug and then Oct.
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El Nino - is it happening?
El Nino is a convenient explanation anytime central Pacific sea
temperatures rise and warmer-than-normal winter weather becomes
widespread across the U.S. The Climate Prediction Center issued a
statement last week indicating that El Nino was continuing to strengthen
and would likely last until at least May. There are other meteorologists
who believe El Nino is peaking and will start to dwindle within weeks,
if not days. Though the warmer-than-normal waters at the sea's surface
form an obvious streak in the central Pacific, this El Nino, based on
the temperature of the water, is not even quite moderate in intensity.
It is stronger than the one in 2002-03 but nothing approaching 1997-98.
When an El Niño event occurs,
Dry, drought: : the eastern half of Australia, parts of Asia and
Indonesia, the NE of S America and the east of southern Africa
Wet, floods: The W and S of N America, NW and SE of S America,
Warm: Japan and E China, NW and NE of N America, SW and SE of Canada
The areas that are most affected by El Nino are North America, South
America, Asia and Australia. Perhaps the most notorious was the El Niño
of 1877. This event resulted in the deaths of over nine million people
in China and eight million in India. El Nino does commonly correlate to
milder than normal winter temperatures over much of the United States,
but there are many exceptions, e.g. 1976-77, one of the coldest winters
on record in the United States. So, is El Nino occurring? El Nino often
correlates to drought in the Pacific Northwest, but that's not happening
as a series of Pacific storms have continually rocked that region with
high winds, lots of rain and heavy mountain snow. One of the
distinctive features of an El Nino winter is a strong southern branch of
the jet stream, with frequent wet storm systems entering California or
northern Mexico and then crossing the southern tier of the nation, but
that's not been happening either because California has even had
wildfires. The Ohio Valley is usually dry in an El Nino, but that region
took a lot of rain, snow and ice from the big middle U.S. winter storm
on Nov. 30-Dec. 1. So despite this week's warmth, one has to conclude
that the weather pattern over the U.S. doesn't really look much like an
El Nino-induced one at all.
So how about Europe? El Nino can sometimes bring warmer winters to
Europe and the UK, and La Nina will usually bring colder winters. Europe
has been dominated by a huge upper-level high pressure system that has
diverted the jet stream far to the north, and as a result, much of the
continent is experiencing what some are calling its warmest late
fall-early winter period in centuries. But downstream from this, the jet
is dipping far to the south around a strong upper level low in eastern
Russia. By Russian standards, it hasn't brought excessive cold, but its
counterclockwise rotation is having an effect on the northern Pacific,
slinging storm after storm across the colder than normal waters of that
region toward Canada and the northwest U.S. Perhaps, if Europe needs a
name for a mild winter, then El Nino can be it.
In Australia? So-called El Niño events have been with Australia for a
long time – in 1791 an El Niño very nearly wiped out Australia's first
European settlement. Nowadays EL Nino means average surface pressure
lower over Tahiti and higher over Darwin(wind flows from high pressure
towards lower pressure). But November was a mixed month with some
negative and some positive values, all netting out about near 0 or
neutral. The South Pacific is near normal other than a small path of
warmer than normal water east of New Zealand, and up north normal water
temps are occurring over the bulk of the North Pacific. Another
indicator of El Nino or La Nina is a change in sea surface height. Sea
surface height is the height of the oceans surface relative to
'average'. But no current data is currently available. Net Pacific storm
activity has been well below normal. The atmosphere above the Pacific
Ocean as of now has shown absolutely no correlation to the development
of El Nino, and usually the atmospherics come first. In order to still
claim El Nino, climatologists are now saying it will take 6 months from
the time the first solid El Nino indices become established in the
Pacific before the usual upper anomalies manifest themselves and start
influencing Western Pacific upper level weather. Whatever, it seems
clear El Nino will not happen in our southern hemisphere summer and may
be the name given to what will probably be a dry spell between March and
mid-May. This will be the N hemisphere spring.
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UK Winter
From Dec 18-Jan 15 drier weather is expected in the south, but the first
ten days of January should be wet in the north and west. The first week
of January is precipitation-prone from Bedfordshire northwards, also
Norffolk asnd Suffolk, but unlikely to be any more than light snow if at
all, due to the distance of the Moon from Earth. Winds may blow rain and
sleet but not deep falls. In the second week of January clearer weather
is likely with rising temperatures. From the 16th onwards, or in
January's third week, rain again arrives mostly falling overnight. Some
flooding is expected in low lying and coastal areas. London may not get
to see cooler precipitation until the end of January or first week in
February. By Feb 18/19 New moons begin edging closer to Earth, and
apogeeal Full moons are increasingly further from Earth, both
combinations bringing the chance of snowfalls, over night during New
moon and in daytime during Full moon. The last week of Feb brings a
chance of morning snowfalls to some southern areas after 24th. March
will be a wet and miserable month and the second half of March and
especially the last week may see late snows, especially 19th/20th,
reaching to southern districts. The first week of April is cold and
snowprone, especially around Full moon on 3rd, while the second week of
April may be dry and cool, then with further snows with the third week
perigeal New moon occurring about 16th/17th, making this coming spring
one of the coolest for many years. The first half of May will also be
cooler and wetter than normal, with drier conditions in the second half.
The first half of June will be dry, and although warmer weather may
arrive in the first few days, temperatures will cool again by the 4th.
Mid June brings last rogue snows of the season for elevated and northern
districts, and an expected upward change to summer temperatures will be
felt about June 21st..
Drier periods in 2007 may be Jan 9-16, Feb 11-16, 18-21, Apr 6-13, May
13-22, May 26-June 14, June 22-July 8, July 15-17, July 22-Aug 6, Aug
14-21, Aug 31-Sept 5, Sept 8-19, Oct 5-16, Nov 23-Dec 22.
The whole summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as it has been in
recent years. And after that, 2008 may begin with a very mild winter
and, mid year, a very mild summer. UK is heading for less cold winters
and milder summers, with the seasons becoming more even. It has nothing
whatever to do with that scam called global warming - in the southern
hemisphere we are going the other way and heading towards long hot
summers and colder winters, and yet we inhabit the same planet.
The real reason for the seasons change is the Grand Cycle of the Seasons
grinding its slow way forward. There is a reversal about every 4.5 years
and depending on the vagaries of a geographical area a turnaround every
18-20 years. The larger cycle is 36-38 years, could be called the solar
system barycentre reversal, in which sun, moon and planetary cycles
coincide. The whole cycle clicks over on a beat of 10x 18.613 years. So
just as 1974 was exceptionally mild, so 2009/10 will be about the middle
point of these milder winter years, and 2013 will see the return of much
wetter and colder winters, on a par with those in the years 1977- 1979
and 1997. Those years were the last previous very cold winter seasons.
Before those years the coldest were 1945 and 1961-3. Other notably cold
years have been 1814 and 1740, all complying to a cyclic pattern. So, in
many ways one could say this winter will be somewhat on a par with
1933/34, 1963/64, 1966/67, 1970/71, 1975/76, 1980/81, 1990/91.
Just because not much seems to be known about this does not necessarily
invalidate it. The fact that that the moon is influential in, if not
controlling weather, and that it can all be measured and predicted well
in advance using identifiable cycles was known to ancient peoples, and
evidence for this can be seen at New Grange and Stonehenge and a host of
other stone-monument sites. Most of the cycles are invisible. Not many
schoolchildren know that there is a Land tide in which the ground we're
walking on rises about a foot towards the moon every day, and the ground
recedes again when the moon sets. Go to Google and look up Land Tides.
This whole subject seems to be totally ignored by western science,
probably because the moon has always been the symbol of paganism. A
victory perhaps for religion, but a pity for truth.
So..will Xmas Day be wet or dry in London? William Hill bookmakers say
bets are favouring wet. In fact a few odd early morning showers are
predicted, but most places should be dry. I favour the drier forecast
because in the Greater London district I expect only 7 recordably-wet
days between 18 Dec and 21 Jan.
Will this Xmas Day be record-hot? No, the record in London for hottest
Xmas Day maximum temperatures should be broken on 25 Dec 2008.
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Weather in Dublin
The Irish seem to have taken an interest in predictweather.com, and
Today-FM Dublin have hosted a series of interviews. For that reason we
welcome Dublin readers to this downunder weather site, and so here is
Dublin weather for the coming winter.
(Interview with Marty on 14 Dec. 2006, due for broadcast on 5 Jan 2007)
In general terms the whole winter should be rather mild and there won't
be any breaking of winter cold records. First snows for Dublin could be
around the end of Jan. Some areas may not get any snow until February.
March-May will be coolish and some late season snow or hail falls may
persist into May and June.
Snow and colder periods will be at the end of January, February third
week onwards, March no respite from the wintry conditions especially at
the beginning and last part, April in the first and third weeks, May at
the beginning, and June around the middle.
Drier periods may be Jan 9-16, Feb the first week and 11-16, March the
beginning of the second week, Apr 10th and 11th and the last three days,
May the first three days and the 17th-23rd, June 2nd-12th, July all
except the second week, Aug only some days in the first week, Sept from
19th-23rd, Oct 9th-15th, Nov not at all, and December apart from 5th and
6th all from 1st-20th.
January
In the first week some wind and rain , most of the second week should be
dry, the next bit of rain about the 17th - 18th, then clearing, and on
the 19th-21st the first frosts will start setting in. Then from
21st-27th will be just cloudy, foggy, a few drizzle patches, just a gray
time. At the end of January a few first snow flurries will arrive.
February
The first week will be clear patches and odd showers, and you'll even
see some winter sunshine. Then from 7th-9th the cold will arrive, in the
form of frosts and fog. I have some rain on the 10th and 11th, maybe
hail and some snow, continuing but with some fine patches as well
between 12th-16th. Then from 17th-24th it'll feel more like winter has
finally come, with subzero temperatures, cold winds, hail, fog, mists,
snow, and a generally heavier-feeling atmosphere. The reason will be
that New moon is on the 18th and from now on the New moons will begin
edging closer to Earth, and far-away Full moons are increasingly FURTHER
from Earth, and both of THESE combinations bring the chance of
snowfalls, over NIGHTduring New moon and in the daytime during Full
moon. The last week of Feb brings a chance of morning snowfalls and that
should be quite widespread even spreading quite a way to the south.
March
The first week in March will be quite cold, and on the whole March will
be a wet and miserable month. I have drier days for Dublin around the
7th and 8th, but in the whole month you'd be lucky to see 7 days with no
rain or snow falling. The 11th-13th will be colder, also the 19th and
also the last week. So the second half of March and especially the last
week may see late snows, overnight around the 19th/20th, and once again
this snow should reaching to southern districts.
April
The first week of April is quite cold and possibly snowprone,
particularly around Full moon on 3rd, while the second week of April may
be a bit drier dry and slightly warmer, but then further frosts in the
third week about 16th/17th, and all this will make the coming spring one
of the coolest for many years. The last few days of April may bring a
few rays of sunshine.
May
The first week of May will be cool, dry for the first three days then
showers arriving, and they'll continue right until about 16th. The
second and third weeks will be quite windy. And then from 18th-23rd
should be dry. May should be cooler and wetter than normal, but with
drier conditions in much of the second half of the month.
June
The first half of June should be dry, and you could safely take holidays
from about the 2nd-12th. And although warmer weather may arrive in the
first few days, temperatures will cool again by the 4th. Just like 1970
and 1975, mid June may bring rogue hailstorms or even snowfalls, and the
expected upward change to summer temperatures won't be felt until about
June 21st..
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NZ forecast, from Predict Weather Almanac 2006
GENERAL FOR JANUARY
Overall the North Is. should be much wetter, with over 100% more rain
than the average, whilst the S Is. should get slightly more rain than
the norm. Higher than usual frequency of moist NE airstreams associated
with low pressure systems to the N of NZ may contribute to new rainfall
records in Northland. High rainfall totals may also come to Kerikeri
and Coromandel. For the N Is. the most rain for the island may fall in
the second and third weeks and least rain in the first and last weeks.
For the S Is., the wettest periods may be in the first few days and
around 19th, and the least rain periods between 3rd-7th and 26th-29th.
All districts between Kaitaia and Taupo, also Palmerston N and Masterton
may be wetter than the norm. Hawkes Bay and Taranaki southwards could be
drier. In the South Island the top will be wetter, also Fairlie, inland
Otago and Gore but the rest may be drier. Sunshine hours may be slightly
under average for the North Island over January, and average for the
South Island. Although not a month to break records for heat, most of
the North Island may be average to warmer except in some eastern areas.
In the S Is, Oamaru may be cooler than the norm, but the rest may be
slightly above average. Around mid month the surf may become dangerous
around Coromandel Peninsular. About 24th strong winds may hit BoP and
Arthurs Pass. By the end of the month hot dry conditions which may bring
high winds to the Thames district.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st-3rd, 5th-14th, 16th-21st, 26th-31st (heavier
8th-12th, 16th-20th)
Western, Central North Is: 2nd-4th, 8th-13th, 17th-20th, 23rd-25th,
28th-31st (heavier 2nd, 8th-12th, 20th)
Taupo: 2nd-3rd, 8th-13th, 19th-20th, 25th, 29th (heavier 9th, 10th,
13th)
Gisborne, HB: 2nd, 6th-13th, 17th-20th, 25th, 29th (heavier 11th)
Lower North Is: 2nd, 8th-14th, 17th-20th, 23rd-25th, 30th (heavier 9th,
11th, 20th, 25th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 1st-2nd, 8th-9th, 11th-14th, 18th-20th,
23rd-25th, 29th-31st (heavier 8th, 13th, 18th)
Canterbury: 1st-2nd, 8th-9th, 11th-12th, 19th-20th, 23rd-25th, (heavier
12th, 19th)
Otago: 1st-2nd, 8th-9th, 14th-20th, 23rd-25th,31st (heavier 14th, 19th,
24th)
Southland and Dunedin: 1st-2nd, 7th-9th, 13th-25th, 28th-31st (heavier
8th, 14th, 19th, 24th, 31st)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 1st-2nd, 8th-10th, 13th-14th, 19th-25th,
31st, (heavier 1st, 9th, 13th, 19th, 23rd, 31st)
JANUARY
1st-7th: A warm northerly airstream spreads onto NZ ahead of a weakening
trough followed by an anticyclone on 3rd. This should lay almost
stationary to the E of the SI with moist easterly conditions affecting
Northland and Auckland.
8th-11th: A tropical depression may lay just to the NE of Northland by
8th. This may be accompanied by periods of heavy rain in Northland and
Auckland in moist N to NE conditions. The depression weakens as it
moves S-SW later lying just to the W of the country.
12th-21st: On 12th a depression lays just E of Auckland while high
pressures extend over the remainder of the country. The depression
later moves SW and weakens as it approaches the SI. Another depression,
possibly the remains of another tropical cyclone, moves SE from New
Caledonia bringing disturbed NE conditions to Northland from 13th-19th.
A warm NE airstream may cover the whole of NZ during the time. The
depression later travels S crossing the SI about the 21st followed by a
brief period of S to SWs.
22nd-26th: On 22nd a weak ridge extends onto NZ from an anticyclone in
the Tasman Sea. Another depression then approaches NZ from the W. This
is preceded by a cooler SW to S airstream on 25th.
27th-31st: A large anticyclone spreads onto much of NZ on 27th from the
Tasman Sea but pressures remain lower to the far North where moist E to
NEs prevail.
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MOON IN JANUARY
3rd: Northern Declination
4th: Full Moon
10th: Crossing Equator
11th: Apogee
12th: Last Quarter
17th: Southern Declination
19th: New Moon
23rd: Perigee #11
23rd: Crossing Equator
26th: 1st Quarter
30th: Northern Declination
A 24 hour error may apply to all of the above forecasts, with chances of
more skewing of readings around perigee(2nd), Full moon(5th),
apogee(14th) and New moon(21st).
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Tropical cyclones and rain coming to NZ
About 5 cyclones are expected between December 2006 and May 2007.
Effects are likely mid January, after mid February, in second week of
March and the third week in April. The West Coast may see some
disastrous weather in the first week of March. March will be a bad month
weatherwise for many. Wellington will be affected by storms in the
fourth week of April. The worst of SI weather may be about mid June.
October will be a bad rain month for the NI, and the top and west of the
SI. November will bring widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe
December weather just before New Years Eve will close the year with some
drama.
January
Cyclone 12-15th
January 8th: Effects of cyclone blow across north of NI affecting
Auckland and Northland, high winds and gales in exposed places.
15th, Beginning of 9 days of rain in western BOP.
16th, Rain from the edge of a tropical cyclone may affect Coromandel
over the next 2 days.
25th, Continuing rain starts to affect Northland crops.
30th, Flooding and slips may close NI roads.
February
Cyclone 8th-13th, 21st-28th in Fiji.
Most of the rain for both islands comes in the first half of the month.
It gets better after the 17th.
February 1st; Prolonged heavy rain starts to affect Auck and Hamilton
stone fruit crops.
March
Cyclones 1st-2nd, 10th-11th
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Climate Change notes
The nature of weather is to go in cycles. Wellington has suffered the
chilliest start to summer for 20 years - after the windiest spring for
nearly 40 years. This is because the cycles are nearly 20 years long. As
such, there are peaks and quiet periods. We should stop being surprised
about any extreme events because they eventually give averages. The
mistake is to make the norm the expectancy. It is only a mean
expectancy. We should also expect the extreme to be part of the norm.
This error of human thinking has fed the climate change hysteria. We
have always had extreme weather, look at any page in the bible.
Global warming scientists say that carbon dioxide from automobiles and
industry are turning earth's atmosphere into a greenhouse. But fill a
party balloon with helium gas and it will rise. Fill a balloon with
carbon dioxide and let go of it and see what happens. The balloon will
fall to the ground just like a rock tossed into a lake. Why? Because
CO2 is heavier than the atmosphere, actually nearly twice as heavy. Hot
air balloons only rise because the heated gases are less dense than the
surrounding atmosphere. Turn off the burner and the hot air balloon
falls back to earth as the air inside it cools and the density equals
that of the surrounding atmosphere, just as carbon dioxide does after
being emitted from a chimney. You can even see smoke from a factory
eventually falling.
We used to talk about haze. This can be looked down on from a hill. It's
the level, about a thousand feet at most, that vehicle emissions and
factory smog reach. Now we're asked to believe these gases go way up,
about 50 miles, to form a greenhouse cover. Imagine that we could stand
on the ground with binoculars and look at that smoke, going MILES up.
But we all know it doesn't. Next time you go flying in an aeroplane
about 7 miles up look out of the window and down. That's what the ground
looks like from the air. Now pick out a dot about 1cm wide. That's what,
say, a small town the size of Hamilton or Broken Hill looks like.
Imagine there's a factory in that dot. How high would the smoke come
towards you? About a quarter of an inch off the floor, if that. But not
way up to your level, and there's still two thirds of the atmosphere to
go above your head.
We are all against pollution of the cities, to be sure. But let's
imagine that that 1cm wide dot on the floor that we've said is Hamilton
is 100% bird poo. No one could live there. The fumes wouldn't reach you,
in fact if you get only a meter away from a pile of droppings you can
hardly smell it. What's more, we call this compost and we say it's good
for the planet. So where's the problem? The public are very gullible and
there are groups who are the vocal minority, who have their own agendas.
They make enough noise so that they do get their share of followers.
And the followers are so awed by the rubbish exiting from the mouths of
their group leaders they lose any common sense. Too bad there isn’t a
cliff for one of them to jump off, as the whole lot of them would be
sure to follow.
While it is true that 207 billion tons of CO2 are released into the
atmosphere annually, it should not be cause for alarm. Nature itself
produces 200 billion tons every year through volcanoes, rotting
vegetation and just by creatures breathing. According to Michael
Crichton, if CO2 was a football field in length, man's contribution
would be the thickness of a pencil at one end on a goal line. Is that
going to create a global catastrophe?
When CO2 levels were low (1895 to 1935), the average yearly temperature
in the U.S. rose about 1 degree. When CO2 levels increased (1935 to
1985), the temperature dropped a degree. Similar cycles occurred in the
11th and 19th centuries.
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Letter: Gore spewing nonsense about global warming
"We've heard plenty from Al Gore about global warming. He's got a movie
out now, and he's burning up jet fuel by the tanker load crisscrossing
the country to lecture us about fossil fuels. Gore's no scientist, but
that doesn't stop him. He's even recruited our very own former mayor to
spread his propaganda.
What is it with these people? A while ago, we heard other doomsday
forecasts from environmentalists, only back then it was global cooling.
They had evidence showing that an icy calamity was coming soon. After
that, overpopulation was soon going to kill us. Then, there was a coming
nuclear winter and a silent spring. When none of their predicted
disasters materialized, they just invented a new way to say the sky is
falling. How they have any remaining credibility at all is beyond me.
In my opinion (which is as good as theirs, by the way), there is no
global warming. It's a load of nonsense. Things change, seasons change
and time passes. Some years we have more snow, some years we have less.
Some summers are hot, others are mild. Glaciers, rivers, tides and
animal populations: They ebb and flow. The only constant is change, it
seems. And if the average annual temperature in, say, Fargo ticks up a
degree or two over the next few years - well, that just doesn't sound to
me like the end of the world. I don't buy their shtick. You shouldn't,
either".
Alfred Hendrickson
The Billings Gazette
<http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2006/12/17/opinion/letters/45-g
ore.txt>
http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2006/12/17/opinion/letters/45-go
re.txt
.."Gore said scientists are finding more polar bears drowning because
they have to swim more than 60 miles to find ice in the polar cap.."
<http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7005882193>
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7005882193
So how would we know what a bear was doing before it drowned? There
must be video footage...surely. Have they followed one of these
suicidal, directionally-impaired, amnesiac bears in a boat? How many
bears died while being watched by scientists who needed to find the
swimming range of the average polar bear? Did they drag a few out to
sea and wait?
And whatever happened to that story called The Emperors Clothes? It was
about a small insignificant boy who was the only one brave enough to say
the obvious, that the villagers were being conned by con-artists, but
all the so-called wise men were either being sucked in or were too busy
raking in the cash, being part of the moneymaking scam themselves, to be
relied on to inform what was really happening. Now we're supposed to
believe that belching cows are destroying the planet. Yeah right.
Science and politics are getting dangerously close to gaining NZ the
international laughing-stock status that the Fart Tax almost achieved.
There is much to be gained rejecting the shackles of Kyoto and the
nonsensical suggestion that either CO2 or methane could ever be any
danger to life on earth. There is no moral responsibility embracing a
gambling hall of carbon certificate trading, when children of South
Auckland go hungry and the sick all over the country lay unattended. But
there is much potential for intellectually leading the world and calling
that a farce has gone far enough. Simply, weather, like the rest of
nature, is governed by cycles. That meteorologists in this country have
not identified them yet does not invalidate their existence. The point
is that cycles rule, the word "climate" has the concept of cycles
embedded, and so climate incorporates change. But there can be no such
thing as "climate change" except over very long periods due to polar
shift and fluctuations of solar radiation. Moreover, the world has been
cooling over the 4 billion years since its fiery birth, is still 6,100C
inside the earth, and this cooling trend will not reverse just because a
few cars run around and a few cows belch. In fact I haven't even seen a
cow belch and I haven't yet met anybody else who has either.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
<http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40>
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
2007 Almanacs out
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is now in shops. It has a bright
green cover featuring Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' wonderful
photo of the Lindis Pass . The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia
Almanac is published by Random House Australia and is available in all
Australian bookshops. It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in
nearly 500-pages.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------
The Lunar Code
Published by Random House NZ and released into shops about a month ago
is about natural cycles which account for the major shifts in climate.
The book is an attempt to furnish the reader with tools for weather
prediction, both short and long term. The main cycles of the moon are
described and starting hints for anyone wanting to predict coming
seasons. The dynamics are there, such as how the moon causes barometric
change when it changes hemispheres, how the air is as much tidal as is
the sea and what happens when the peaks of different cycles engage
together. The moon fits into the interconnected system that we call the
cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather role. The Lunar Code is
available from booksellers throughout NZ at $34. ISBN 1-86941-852-2.
Both the Predict Weather Almanac 2007 and The Lunar Code are slightly
cheaper at The Warehouse.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
CONTACT
Editor: ph 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696 e-mail
<mailto:enqui-@predictweather.com> enqui-@predictweather.com
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand. No
responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed. This e-zine
is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed
to interested parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except
not for purposes of commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All
Rights Reserved (c) PWL 2006
<http://www.predictweather.com> http://www.predictweather.com
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