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WEATHER EZINE January 16, 2007
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Ken Ring
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Jan 15, 2007 16:59 PST
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE January 16, 2007
CURRENT MOON
COMING
BEST TIME TO TAKE HOLIDAYS
JANUARY
TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN WEATHER
WHY THE DROUGHT IS NEARLY GONE
UK WINTER
WEATHER IN DUBLIN
CLIMATE CHANGE NOTES
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Current Moon
12th: last Quarter
17th: southern declination
19th: new moon
23rd: perigee 11th closest for year, crossing equator
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Coming for NZ
Fronts are making their way south but are due to clear by the weekend,
heralding the start of about a week of real summery weather. Before
then, the new moon of 19th may bring overnight rain and flooding to some
areas. Worst affected could be the east coast of the North island
including Coromandel and BoP and central NI districts down to Taupo. In
the SI all districts may be affected. Best weather may be 21st-30th for
the NI and 25th-30th for the SI.
Temperatures continue to be generally cooler, not heating much until the
end of January. From 19th-23rd the new moon is in perigee, a combination
that is a cold maker whatever the season, also the moon is in S
declination which will add to the cooler aspect. The 19th/20th sees the
moon in Aquarius, itself a colder sign, but the change into warmer
Pisces on 21st should bring some noticeable temperature rises around the
country. Wind gusts should also lessen by 21st.
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Best time left to take holidays
Jan 3rd-7th(SI), 20th-27th(NI), 25th-30th(SI)
Feb 19th-28th(NI, Marl. and Cant),
March 13th-21st(both islands), and
April 10th-17th(both islands).
------------------------------------------------------------------------
January
January is probably going to be wet, windy and coolish, especially the
second week. The first week should be okay in Canterbury, and the last
week in January should be dry in Wellington and Christchurch, but in
Auckland only the week of Jan 21-27 may be fairly rain-free.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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February
From the 18th onwards it may be mostly dry in the North Island, but the
South Island has more fine days. Widespread rain for both islands is
likely in the third week.
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NZ forecast, from Predict Weather Almanac 2007
JANUARY
Overall the North Is. could be much wetter, in some places with over
100% more rain than the average, whilst the S Is. should get slightly
more rain than the norm. Higher than usual frequency of moist NE
airstreams associated with low pressure systems to the N of NZ may
contribute to new rainfall records in Northland. High rainfall totals
may also come to Kerikeri and Coromandel. For the N Is. the most rain
for the island may fall in the second and third weeks and least rain in
the first and last weeks. For the S Is., the wettest periods may be in
the first few days and around 19th, and the least rain periods between
3rd-7th and 26th-29th. All districts between Kaitaia and Taupo, also
Palmerston N and Masterton may be wetter than the norm. Hawkes Bay and
Taranaki southwards could be drier. In the South Island the top will be
wetter, also Fairlie, inland Otago and Gore but the rest may be drier.
Sunshine hours may be slightly under average for the North Island over
January, and average for the South Island. Although not a month to break
records for heat, most of the North Island may be average to warmer
except in some eastern areas. In the S Is, Oamaru may be cooler than the
norm, but the rest may be slightly above average. Around mid month the
surf may become dangerous around Coromandel Peninsular. About 24th
strong winds may hit BoP and Arthurs Pass. By the end of the month hot
dry conditions which may bring high winds to the Thames district.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 17th-21st, 26th-31st (heavier 17th-20th)
Western, Central North Is: 17th-20th, 23rd-25th, 28th-31st (heavier
20th)
Taupo: 19th-20th, 25th, 29th
Gisborne, HB: 17th-20th, 25th, 29th
Lower North Is: 17th-20th, 23rd-25th, 30th (heavier 20th, 25th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 18th-20th, 23rd-25th, 29th-31st (heavier 18th)
Canterbury: 19th-20th, 23rd-25th, (heavier 19th)
Otago: 14th-20th, 23rd-25th,31st (heavier 19th, 24th)
Southland and Dunedin: 13th-25th, 28th-31st (heavier 19th, 24th, 31st)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 19th-25th, 31st, (heavier 19th, 23rd, 31st)
JANUARY
12th-21st: On 12th a depression lays just E of Auckland while high
pressures extend over the remainder of the country. The depression
later moves SW and weakens as it approaches the SI. Another depression,
possibly the remains of another tropical cyclone, moves SE from New
Caledonia bringing disturbed NE conditions to Northland from 13th-19th.
A warm NE airstream may cover the whole of NZ during the time. The
depression later travels S crossing the SI about the 21st followed by a
brief period of S to SWs.
22nd-26th: On 22nd a weak ridge extends onto NZ from an anticyclone in
the Tasman Sea. Another depression then approaches NZ from the W. This
is preceded by a cooler SW to S airstream on 25th.
27th-31st: A large anticyclone spreads onto much of NZ on 27th from the
Tasman Sea but pressures remain lower to the far North where moist E to
NEs prevail.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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MOON IN JANUARY
3rd: Northern Declination
4th: Full Moon
10th: Crossing Equator
11th: Apogee
12th: Last Quarter
17th: Southern Declination
19th: New Moon
23rd: Perigee #11
23rd: Crossing Equator
26th: 1st Quarter
30th: Northern Declination
A 24 hour error may apply to all of the above forecasts, with chances of
more skewing of readings around perigee(2nd), Full moon(5th),
apogee(14th) and New moon(21st).
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Tropical cyclones and rain coming to NZ
About 5 cyclones are expected between December 2006 and May 2007.
Effects are likely mid January, after mid February, in second week of
March and the third week in April. About January 30th, flooding and
slips may close NI roads. In February, cyclonic weather is expected
about 8th-13th, and 21st-28th in Fiji. In Feb most of the rain for both
islands comes in the first half of the month. It gets better after the
17th.
The West Coast may see some disastrous weather in the first week of
March. March will be a bad month weatherwise for many. In March cyclonic
weather may affect around first week, also 10th-11th. Wellington will be
affected by storms in the fourth week of April. The worst of SI weather
may be about mid June. October should be a bad rain month for the NI,
and the top and west of the SI. November may bring widespread heavy rain
to the upper NI. Severe December weather just before New Years Eve
should close the year with some drama.
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Event shifted
The largest festival of its type in the country, the Ecofest Festival in
Levin, www.ecofest.co.nz has changed its date to a week later than they
usually have it, because of predictions of rain from this website. Fine
weather for Levin is expected between 24 Jan - 5 Feb. The festival is
now to be held on 27th-28th Jan , which should ensure a dry and sunny
time for the 12,000+ attendees.
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Australian Weather
Over the next few days
By 17th, much of the north of all northern States may receive rain,
from Port Hedland to Townsville, including NW of WA and NW Cape.
By 18th, rain becomes confined more to NW Cape and the NE coast of WA,
but still strong in north of NT and QSLD. Some rain also comes to VIC.
By 19th, little change, except for rain on coastal border SW of VIC and
SE of SA.
By 20th, rain in WA moves inland in a band running north to south, also
along south WA coast. Still chance of showers in VIC but most of NSW and
south QSLD dry. Rain over Cape Peninsular and Mount Sanford and
extending west to areas south of Broome. Light rain over TAS.
By 21st, much of inland NT receives rain, also Cape Peninsular, and
parts of central and SE of WA. Most of SA, VIC, NSW and southern QSLD
dry.
By 22nd rain comes to many NT parts as a cyclonic system makes its way
inland south of Darwin. Another cyclonic system in the Coral Sea begins
a descent southwards. A low comes through the Bight held up by the high
over TAS and the SI of NZ. Meanwhile a big high pressure system begins
to move onto Perth from the west.
By 23rd the high in WA intensifies and extends a ridge to SA. The low
moves south of TAS. Around the border of east WA and central west NT
rain lessens as the unsettled system becomes a spent force . QSLD may
get some rain in central inland and a high sits over the eastern
seabord.
By 24th rain in central east WA and west QSLD begins to die out. High
pressure extends all through the Bight from WA to SA and TAS.
By 25th, low pressure deepens about the NT/QSLD border, whilst an
anticyclone continues to dominate the Bight. Another high pressure
system approaches WA from the Indian Ocean.
By 26th, promising rainclouds start to gather in many northern parts
including Dampier and the NE of WA, much of NT apart from central and SE
areas, and the NW of QSLD. Rain on the way briefly for SE coastal QSLD.
A quick frontal system may brush through Perth and the SW of WA.
By 27th, most of the southern half of WA also SA are under an
anticyclonic system, pushing a shortlived front onto TAS and over VIC.
Another low affects Port Hedland bringing showers.
By 28th, the low descends down the west coast of WA as a large
anticyclone gathers west of the State. meanwhile a high pressure system
dominates the border comprising the SE of SA and the SW of VIC. The low
affects the west half of TAS before pushing onto NZ bringing heavy rains
from the west there and becoming widespread. A deepening front starts
developing over the south of SA. NSW sits under the edge of a departing
anticyclone. In the north a low is over northern WA bringing showers and
another moves into north QSLD.
By 29th, the AC becomes established over southern WA while a low
remains in the north of the State. Little change in other States.
By 30th, widespread rain comes to the northern half of WA, some parts of
north NT, and central QSLD also showers and east QSLD down to about
Mackay, also on south coasts of SA and SW of VIC. TAS also has showery
weather. Mix of dry and odd showers in the east of NSW. High pressure
remains in the Bight bringing dry weather to south WA and drying most of
SA.
By 31st, a low forms in the Coral Sea that may become cyclonic. Low
pressure remains in NW of WA, N of NT and central N of QSLD. A front
passes over VIC and TAS bringing brief rain.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Why The Drought Is Nearly Gone
Evidence that the Australian drought is nearly over can be found by
looking at the timing of past droughts, and identifying a pattern. It
will come as no surprise that all drought periods have appeared around
El Nino years, because talk of El Nino usually comes about after the dry
sets in. But it may put a different twist on the matter if El Nino is
identified as a sequential pattern that can be used to extrapolate both
into the distant past for which records are unavailable and into future
years not yet come.
Readers will remember that the signature of an El Nino is warmer water
off the west of South America with heavy rain and floods there and
corresponding cooler water off Australia leading to drought. An El Nino
is the result of changes in the air pressure across the southern Pacific
Ocean, known as the southern oscillation index. It is little known or
recognized amongst meteorologists that changes in air pressure are
brought about monthly by the moon changing hemispheres, and every 18-19
years a maximum north and south latitude is reached in this cycle
bringing peaks to the air pressure change system which results in a
regime cycle in temperatures.
It appears that the weather experts cannot get a proper grip on the El
Nino/ La Nina oscillation because they are too busy looking at ocean
temperatures as measured by buoys. Their belief seems to be that sea
temperatures heat the air and then drive the air pressure in what they
see as a closed system. However it is not a closed system and the air
temperatures and pressures come first. In other words the air above the
sea heats the surface of the sea and not vice versa. The air temperature
is driven by the heat from the sun. The fact that there might be an
identifiable cycle is less attractive today, when it is more fashionable
to be shrugging shoulders and claiming weird unaccountable weather
devoid of pattern is now the rule. Such talk generates more research
funding and opens the way to carbon taxes on gases put artificially into
the air. Then, apparently the climate may be brought back to "normal",
as defined by politicians and economists.
It does not take much analysis of data already in the possession of the
climatologists to see the pattern is evident and it is robust. The
drought of 1901-2 was called an El Nino year, as were the years 1913-14,
1918-20, 1935-36, 1940, 1943-44, 1951, 1965-68, 1972-73, 1982-83,
1991-95 and 1996 onwards. These have been the main Australian
drought-defined periods of the last century. Equivalent dry years in the
previous century would have been 1807, 1825, 1843, 1888. Unfortunately
Sydney data goes back only to 1858, and Sydney received only about half
the average rainfall in 1888(583mm) which fits the pattern.
Between 1900 and 2006 a total of 11 identified El Ninos have occurred in
106 years, averaging 9.5 years between each. Droughts occur in the same
place every 9-11 years. This is a combination of the lunar cycle of
9.years and the sunspot cycle of 11 years. These gaps are not exact and
may vary over a shorter term, but over a longer term the average gap
closely adheres to this figure.
Let's look at a few gap years between dry periods. Droughts were during
1963-68 then 1972-73, showing a 9 yr gap between 1963-1972. The next
drought was 1982-83. It is 9 yrs between 1973-1982. Then we had the
drought of 1991-95. It is 9 years between 1982-1991. After that we have
drought kicking in around 2005. It is 10 years between 1995-2005. 9
years is a multiple of 18 and 36, which are lunar cycles. From this, we
can predict that the next El Nino and Australian drought period of
significance may click in around 2011-12.
Rainfall figures spanning 1938-2005 for Glenprairie, QSLD, have been
sent to me. Low rain years there fit in very well to the El Nino
pattern. They were 1938(504mm), 1944/45(531mm), 1952(461mm),
1957(361mm), 1965/66(336mm), 1972(476mm), 1977, 1982(375mm),
1987(503mm), 1992/93(451mm), 1997(438mm), 2002(345mm), 2006(453mm). The
gap numbers between these years are roughly 6, 7, 5, 8, 7, 5, 5, 5, 5,
5, 5, 5. Droughts are plottable near maximum lunar declinations,
because high maximum temperatures become more extreme with the moon's
more northern latitude. Mostly, the years following lunar maximum
declinations have been wetter than average and we can look to them for
years of rain relief. These years have been have been 1804, 1840, 1858,
1899, 1915, 1933, 1951, 1971, 1989, 2007, and perhaps will be 2026.
Again Glenprairie still shows a clear trend, for example
heavier-than-average rain years were 1951 with 1187(mm), 1971(1340mm),
and 1990(1076mm).
So drought-hit farmers can take heart. They may have passed the worst of
it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Sydney notes (2UE interview)
Jan
There'll probably be lingering showers about the south ranges around
18th and 19th but even that should be all gone by Jan 20th, and then a
few odd showers on the N coast from 26th-31st.
Feb
Some on the N coast around the beginning of the month, then later in
that first week widespread rain mainly in the eastern half of NSW and on
the 10th again on the N coast. Then around 14th the Darling River area
and Broken Hill should get goodly amounts of rain, then on 15th-16th odd
falls in the middle of the State, and about the 17th there's more on the
E coast, and then just on the N coast again for the 18th and 19th. On
Feb 20th N central and NE areas can expect gray skies. But from the 18th
it starts clearing up
March
The dry continues until rain on the E coast about March 4th, then
9th-11th and even the dry NW will get rain, then on the 13th or 14th
it's back on the E coast and all gone again by 15th. By 17th March the W
half of the State will get a dosing and that will move to the central
State by 18th March and by the 20th March the whole E half of the State
should be under rain clouds but it may be shortlived because it'll be
quite gusty and wind tends to blow rain away. If the wind drops there
could be odd good days of rain in that last ten days of March.
April
3rd April - rain on N coast, 4th-on S border, but in E it's all going to
stay pretty dry until about 6th or 7th of April and then rain widespread
for the E especially the NE. Then more around midmonth on E coast, on
the W side of the State around 17th-18th. Finally some in the S of NSW
about 20th and 27th
May
Rain in E NSW in the first week, then around the 12th-13th and then the
20th onwards. The last few days of May should see the heavens open. And
that lot will all be over by the 1st of June
June
The next rain will be in the central N on 7th-9th June and the middle of
the month will see rain to many districts in all central and E areas.
The 19th of June brings more for the W half of the State, crossing to
the E half by the 20th and to the S half by the 21st. and then petering
out everywhere.
So for the first half of the year, no shortage of rain.
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Adelaide 2007 (ABC interview)
Expected to be an overall drier than normal year, with no months likely
to be wetter than average.
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Canberra rain relief
The first half of January may be wet. February should be very dry and
rain may return in the last week of March. For Canberra, 2007 is
expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with autumn likely to
be wetter than average. Because the moon's perigee sweep-by will be
further away from earth in Dec and Jan, temperatures may not climb as
high. There may be hot spots though, like 19 Jan which may also be over
30C, also as the moon starts to come in closer again early in 2007,
temperatures may climb to 30s for Feb 18-29, March 8-10 and 16-19. On
March 21st the moon will be 4th closest to earth for the year and should
be the last time the temperatures go anywhere near 30 for the summer
season. After that temperatures for Canberra should drop quickly into
autumn mode. Sub-zero minimums should click in around June 24 and end in
mid Oct, with the coldest part of next winter happening in late
July/early August.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Perth
1. What would be the best day to play golf on, not too hot, no rain and
little wind, what day of the week should it be?
Avoid February. First half of Feb too hot - possibly in 40s.
2. Summer was late this year, are we likely to have our heat waves in
April next year as well?
No.
3. So, is there any predicted rainfall for next year?
Overall a drier than average year, the wettest half of 2007 should be
the second half, and the wettest months Aug and Oct.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Townsville notes for 2007
A wetter than average year overall, months wetter than average should be
Apr-July , also December.
Sept may be an average rain month, but all the rest of the months should
be drier than average.
By month
Jan, drier than average month, rain in first half, heavy in second week
and around 24th
Feb, drier than average month, a lot of rain around the middle of the
month, 13th-19th, cyclonic about 15th and possible floods 15th-20th
March, drier than average month, most rain in the second half of the
month, heavier 17th and 26th
April, a wetter than average month, with more rain in first half than
the second.
May, another wtter than normal month, more rain falling during the first
and last weeks.
June wetter than average, about 6 wet days, so rain will be in big
dumps, for instance about 7th and 17th
July only about 5 wet days but a wetter than average month, so expect
large downpours
Aug, little or no rain at all
Sept, only 1 or 2 rain days
Oct, little or no rain
Nov, about half the average rain amount for the month
Dec, a wetter than average month, most coming in first and last weeks,
and in the NE some gales and stormy weather in the last few days.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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UK Winter
From the 16th onwards, in January's third week, widespread rain is
likely and mostly overnight. Some flooding is expected in low lying and
coastal areas. Frosts begin about Friday in many areas not yet
experiencing them. London may not get to see cooler precipitation until
the end of January or first week in February.
By Feb 18th/19th New moons begin edging closer to Earth, and apogeeal
Full moons are increasingly further from Earth, both combinations
bringing the chance of snowfalls, over night during New moon and in
daytime during Full moon. The last week of Feb brings a chance of
morning snowfalls to some southern areas after 24th.
March will be a wet and miserable month and the second half of March and
especially the last week may see late snows, especially 19th/20th,
reaching to southern districts.
The first week of April is cold and snowprone, especially around Full
moon on 3rd, while the second week of April may be dry and cool, then
with further snows with the third week perigeal New moon occurring about
16th/17th, making this coming spring one of the coolest for many years.
The first half of May may also be cooler and wetter than normal, with
drier conditions in the second half.
The first half of June should be dry, and although warmer weather may
arrive in the first few days, temperatures could cool again by the 4th.
Mid June brings last rogue snows or hailstorms of the season for
elevated and northern districts, and the expected upward change to
summer temperatures may be felt about June 21st.
Drier periods in 2007 may be Jan 9-16, Feb 11-16, 18-21, Apr 6-13, May
13-22, May 26-June 14, June 22-July 8, July 15-17, July 22-Aug 6, Aug
14-21, Aug 31-Sept 5, Sept 8-19, Oct 5-16, Nov 23-Dec 22.
The whole summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as it has been in
recent years. And after that, 2008 may begin with a very mild winter
and, mid year, a very mild summer. UK is heading for less cold winters
and milder summers, with the seasons becoming more even. It has nothing
whatever to do with the hysteria called global warming - in the southern
hemisphere we are going the other way and heading towards long hot
summers and colder winters, and yet we inhabit the same planet.
The real reason for the seasons change is the Grand Cycle of the Seasons
grinding its slow way forward. There is a reversal about every 4.5 years
and depending on the vagaries of a geographical area a turnaround every
18-20 years. The larger cycle is 36-38 years, could be called the solar
system barycentre reversal, in which sun, moon and planetary cycles
coincide. The whole cycle clicks over on a beat of 10x 18.613 years. So
just as 1974 was exceptionally mild, so 2009/10 will be about the middle
point of these milder winter years, and 2013 will see the return of much
wetter and colder winters, on a par with those in the years 1977- 1979
and 1997. Those years were the last previous very cold winter seasons.
Before those years the coldest were 1945 and 1961-3. Other notably cold
years have been 1814 and 1740, all complying to a cyclic pattern. So, in
many ways one could say this winter will be somewhat on a par with
1933/34, 1963/64, 1966/67, 1970/71, 1975/76, 1980/81, 1990/91.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Dublin
First snows for Dublin could be around the end of Jan. Some areas may
not get any snow until February. March-May will be coolish and some late
season snow or hail falls may persist into May and June.
Snow and colder periods will be at the end of January, February third
week onwards, March no respite from the wintry conditions especially at
the beginning and last part, April in the first and third weeks, May at
the beginning, and June around the middle.
Drier periods may be Jan 9-16, Feb the first week and 11-16, March the
beginning of the second week, Apr 10th and 11th and the last three days,
May the first three days and the 17th-23rd, June 2nd-12th, July all
except the second week, Aug only some days in the first week, Sept from
19th-23rd, Oct 9th-15th, Nov not at all, and December apart from 5th and
6th all from 1st-20th.
January
In the first week expect some wind and rain, most of the second week
should be dry, the next rain may arrive about the 17th - 18th, then
clearing, and on the 19th-21st the first frosts should begin setting in.
From 21st-27th may be cloudy, foggy, a few drizzle patches, mainly a
gray time. At the end of January the few first snow flurries should
arrive.
February
The first week will be clear patches and odd showers, and even some
winter sunshine. From 7th-9th the weather turns colder, in the form of
frosts and fog. Expect rain on the 10th and 11th, maybe hail and some
snow, continuing but with fine patches between 12th-16th. Then from
17th-24th it should feel more like winter has finally come, with subzero
temperatures, cold winds, hail, fog, mists, snow, and a generally
heavier-feeling atmosphere. The reason will be the New moon on the 18th
and from now on as New moons begin edging closer to Earth, and far-away
Full moons increasingly further from Earth, both combinations bring the
chance of more regular snowfalls, over night during New moon and in
daylight hours during Full moon. The last week of Feb brings a chance of
morning snowfalls that even spreading quite a way to the south.
March
The first week in March may be cold, and on the whole March should be a
wet and miserable month. There may be drier days for Dublin around the
7th and 8th, but in the whole month Dubliners may be lucky to see 7 days
with no rain or snow falling. The 11th-13th should be colder, also the
19th and also the last week. So the second half of March and especially
the last week may see late snows, overnight around the 19th/20th, and
once again this snow should reach to southern districts.
April
The first week of April may be cold and possibly snowprone, particularly
around Full moon on 3rd, while the second week of the month may be drier
and slightly warmer, with further frosts in the third week about
16th/17th, and all this making the coming spring possibly one of the
coolest for many years. However the last few days of April may bring a
few rays of sunshine.
May
The first week of May should be cool, dry for the first three days then
showers arriving, and continuing until about 16th. The second and third
weeks may be windy. From 18th-23rd should be dry. May should be cooler
and wetter than normal, but with drier conditions in much of the second
half of the month.
June
The first half of June should be dry, and safe to take holidays from
about 2nd-12th. Although warmer weather may arrive in the first few
days, temperatures may cool again by the 4th. Just like 1970 and 1975,
mid June may bring rogue hailstorms or even snowfalls, and the expected
upward change to summer temperatures may not be felt properly until
about June 21st..
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Climate Change notes
During the early 1900's, Militun Milankovitch worked many years
developing a mathematical theory relating Earth motion with geologic
evidence of past glaciations, emphasizing Earth's solar energy
collection. Detailed astronomical measurements indicate basic changes of
3 aspects of Earth motion - eccentricity, tilt, and equinoctical
precession. The primary eccentricity cycle is about 100,000 years and
tilt cycle about 41,000 years. Precession is a combination of the
wobbling of earth's rotation axis (like a top), and movement of earth's
orbit (itself), which combine for about a 22,000 year cycle.
If eccentricity became very large, such that perihelion (sun's orbital
point closest to sun) corresponded with Mercury's position, much if not
all ice would melt during summer. That exaggerated example illustrates a
circular orbit is most favorable for glaciations. According to
Milankovitch theory, earth's orbit during the past several hundred
thousand years has varied between near circular and about .06
eccentricity. Orbital eccentricity is presently .0167 and decreasing,
favoring the theory that we are heading towards an ice age peaking many
thousands of years from now.
If the Earth was not tilted and its axis was perpendicular with its
orbital plane, polar regions would receive little sunlight and remain
cold year-round, such that glaciers would probably extend much further
south than presently. Earth's axis tilt varies between about 21.8° &
25.0°. It is presently 23.44°, and decreasing. Therefore, this also
favors development of an ice age several thousands of years from now.
-----------
Indicator to help the greening of Victorians
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/01/07/1168104867745.html
Liz Minchin
January 8, 2007
VICTORIANS can now regularly track their ongoing contributions to
climate change, with the launch of a world-first weekly indicator
showing the state's key sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The weekly
figure is calculated using detailed market data from the National
Electricity Market Management Company, VENCorp and the federal Industry
Department. Some of Melbourne's leading climate and energy experts
volunteered to help create the indicator, including CSIRO climate,
weather and ocean prediction team leader Chris Mitchell, RMIT University
adjunct professor Alan Pears, Mr Gell and the Department of
Sustainability and Environment's executive director of sustainability
policy, Ian Porter. Dr Mitchell, the former head of a national centre
for greenhouse accounting, said people could trust that the weekly
figures were "very robust". "It is only an indicator, rather than
counting every greenhouse gas molecule, because we left some areas out
where there was some scientific uncertainty," Dr Mitchell said. He said
he hoped the indicator would help people understand how increasing
demand for energy was driving up the state's greenhouse emissions. "If
we can't see the results of our own behaviour, then it's harder to make
sensible choices," he said. "It's like driving a car without a speedo —
if you can't see how fast you're going, it's harder to know whether you
should have your foot on the accelerator or the brake."
Comment: Unfortunately it is nothing like that, because in a car a
speedo is connected directly to the drive shaft. This monitor isn't
connected up to everything that produces CO2, for instance to the gas
coming off every opened bottle of coke or every glass of beer, not to
mention to the lungs of every jogger in the neighborhood. This
scatterbrained rort is like sitting in a stationary car in which some
idiot who hates cars has installed a speedo that is designed to work of
its own accord whether or not the car is moving, just to scare off
potential drivers.
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2006 Was the Sixth Warmest Year Ever?
GENEVA, Switzerland, January 3, 2007 (ENS) - Globally, the year 2006 is
estimated to be the sixth warmest year since recordkeeping began in
1880, according to records maintained by member governments of the World
Meteorological Organization, WMO. Final figures will not be released
until March 2007. Following established practice, WMO’s global
temperature analyses are based on two different datasets. One is the
combined dataset maintained by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office,
and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK. The other
is maintained by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, NOAA. Both indicate that 2006 is likely to
be the sixth warmest year globally.
The global mean surface temperature in 2006 was 0.42 degrees Celsius
above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C or 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit,
the United Nations weather agency said.Since the start of the 20th
century, the global average surface temperature has risen 0.7°C, but
this rise has not been continuous. The steepest rise has occurred since
1976, at 0.18°C (.32°F) per decade. In the northern hemisphere, the 10
year period 1997-2006 averaged 0.53°C above the 1961-1990 mean. And in
the southern hemisphere temperatures averaged 0.27°C above the 1961-1990
mean.
So much for WMO accuracy. They said in November that 2006 was going to
be the hottest in history.
Prof Phil Jones says 2006 was the hottest year since 1659. Given that
thermometers were only invented three hundred years ago and not utilised
properly until 150 years ago this is an odd thing to say. Most of
records make a 0.1º C distinction, even when they were using old glass
thermometers that couldn't measure tenths. It is quite clear now that
daily error bars were bigger than 0.6º or 0.8º C, so it also applies to
those records used since 1860, and of course, to the 0.6º C increase in
150 years.
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Canada not getting hotter
http://members.tripod.com/~MitchellBrown/almanac/provs_warmest.html
It appears that throughout Canada, not one record hot temperature
appears after 1973. Either global warming is not happening anywhere near
Canada, or Canada is on a different globe. Hottest days since records
began are:
Newfoundland 41.7 Aug. 11, 1914 Northwest River
Prince Edward Island 36.7 Aug. 19, 1935 Charlottetown
New Brunswick 39.4 Aug. 18, 1935 Nepisiguit Falls
Nova Scotia 38.3 Aug. 19, 1935 Collegeville
Quebec 40.0 July 6, 1921 Ville Marie
Ontario 42.2 July 20, 1919 Biscotasing
Manitoba 44.4 July 11, 1936 St. Albans
Saskatchewan 45.0 July 5, 1937 Midale
Alberta 43.3 July 21, 1931 Bassano Dam
British Columbia 44.4 July 16, 1941 Lillooet
Yukon 36.1 June 14, 1969 Mayo
Northwest Territories 39.4 July 18, 1941 Fort Smith
Nunavut 33.9 July 22, 1973 Arviat
Meanwhile, 2006 was the warmest year in China since 1951, according to
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4848. Does that mean it was warmer prior
to 1951? 1950-51 AND 2006 were maximum declination years of the moon.
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http://thewashingtonpest.blogspot.com/2006/12/green-wave-breaking-green-
lip-syndrome.html
Are Skeptics Winning?
The first law of democrcy is that every squeak gets some grease. In this
case the greens are not just squeaking; they are screaming. Compare what
is happening to what they say needs to be done. Also we must
distinguish what people say, vow and call for, versus what is actually
done. The calls-for are part of the screaming. In the past decade NZ has
spent about $1 billion all up so far on research into "climate change".
Meanwhile the US currently spends $1 billion/year on renewable and
efficiency research. Most western countries now even have some portfolio
standards, which will not be met, and tax credits. Are the national
grids switching to renewables? Is demand for energy generation going
down? No. That means skeptics are winning. Kyoto is in effect and the
target period starts in one year. Are any of the signatories doing
anything serious to meet it? No. That means skeptics are winning. Are
transport emissions going down? Are people driving less, flying less,
trucking less? No, that means skeptics are winning. Politicians are
calling for things that can't be done. It doesn't seem to matter, as any
politician promising to "tackle climate change" will get elected.
Fortunately for the environmentalists the northern hemisphere will be
enduring milder summers and warmer winters until 2010, which the greens
will point to as evidence that their screams are justified. Continuance
of research funding is ensured. Then, when season temperatures cool
thereafter, as they did in 1992 a few years after the warmer ones of the
late 1980s, they will claim their policies, restrictions and cutbacks
are at last working, enabling more funding. In the southern hemisphere
the climate is already cool and emerging into a late summer. Global
warming definitely excluded NZ over the winter, spring and early summer,
although it did visit selected parts of Australia with drought, but
which weathermen predict will abate this year. Further funding is going
to be needed to determine this. In each hemisphere whatever people think
they have been through or think they are entering will all take another
18 years to return, if the moon and sun have anything to do with it.
Meanwhile although the skeptics will always be winning the science
debate, the greens will keep their families fed. In the long run we will
all be poorer off, for all the funding wasted, for the missed
opportunities to learn what is really going on by inviting and funding
public skeptical debate, and for the submission to manipulation by
business and media political moguls. We have not yet entrered the Age of
Science or of Reason, stuck as we are in the Age of Ignorance, Greed and
Suppression.
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Investing in Climate Change
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2007/01/investing_in_climate_cha
nge_1.html
Some firms are positioning themselves to benefit from the markets that
will be created as a result of regulatory and other actions to tackle
greenhouse gas emissions. London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM)
has prominence as a center of alt energy activity, and “The Top 50
Low-carbon Pioneers”, is a list of 50 firms that could see some upside
from efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The visibility of London’s AIM has increased significantly since many
small firms chose to list there instead of the NASDAQ due to looser
listing requirements and lower costs. London is Europe’s principal
financial center, with a savvy investor class and plenty of liquidity.
AIM has become, over the past 3 years, a powerhouse of clean tech and
alt energy financing. New Energy Finance recently released a research
note detailing how alt energy companies listed on the AIM have fared so
far. Besides being a locus of clean tech activity generally, the AIM
also sits at the confluence of 2 converging movements: (a) European
efforts to tackle change via market-based means such as emissions
trading and (b) growing investor interest in all things alt energy and
clean tech. The AIM is therefore becoming a meeting point for firms with
solutions to climate change and investors with a strong interest in
seeing the solutions these firms have to offer succeed. There are 50
companies identified as positioned to benefit as regulations to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions are enacted and/or tightened. As examples, here
are five:
Climate Exchange plc [LSE:CLE]: Owns the European Climate Exchange,
responsible for 80% of exchange-traded volumes of carbon dioxide in
Europe, as well as the Chicago Climate Exchange, the only carbon dioxide
emissions trading platform currently functioning in the US. Goldman
Sachs has a 10% stake in Climate Exchange.
Ecosecurities [LSE:ECO]: Ecosecurities sources, develops and trades
carbon dioxide credits. The company finances deals that generate
emissions credits, mostly in emerging markets, which can then be sold to
mostly developed market companies to meet their compliance obligations.
Camco International [LSE:CAO]: Camco advises companies on how to
originate carbon credits in emerging and transiotion economies, with a
particular focus on the Russian and Chinese markets as well as Africa
and the CEE.
Low Carbon Accelerator [LSE:LCA]: LCA is a private equity fund dedicated
to businesses that reduce carbon emissions. Its biggest investor is ABM
Amro.
Al Gore's personal company, General Investment Management, controls
$750million and was founded, with David Blood former chief of Goldman
Sachs in 2004. It levies a fee/reward system for state investments
proving climate sustainability. Gore travels the world getting red
herring media coverage for a propaganda slide show, whilst conducting
state-level meetings on the side with political investment officers.
These securities have business models focused on greenhouse gas
reduction and emissions trading, and the expertise they are developing
in trading and accumulating a body of pseudoscience will no doubt be
worth a lot of money one day, especially as emissions trading extends to
North America. The religious notion of climate change is becoming very
big business, and the more people that believe in it the greater
traction will be gained. It doesn't really matter what the weather is
doing, as these deals are made in board rooms by entrepeneurs intent on
reaping quick private fortunes. Many board rooms don't even have
windows..
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Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is now in shops. It has a bright
green cover featuring Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' wonderful
photo of the Lindis Pass . The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia
Almanac is published by Random House Australia and is available in all
Australian bookshops. It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in
nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and released into shops
about a month ago is about natural cycles which account for the major
shifts in climate. The book is an attempt to furnish the reader with
tools for weather prediction, both short and long term. The main cycles
of the moon are described and starting hints for anyone wanting to
predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as how the moon
causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the air is as
much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of different
cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected system
that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather role.
The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ at $34. ISBN
1-86941-852-2. Both the Predict Weather Almanac 2007 and The Lunar Code
are slightly cheaper at The Warehouse.
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CONTACT
Editor: ph 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696 e-mail
enqui-@predictweather.com Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland
7, New Zealand. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for
actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information
printed. This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may
be freely distributed to interested parties provided that the source is
acknowledged; except not for purposes of commercial gain unless
authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) PWL 2007
http://www.predictweather.com
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