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WEATHER EZINE February 2, 2007
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Ken Ring
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Feb 02, 2007 17:25 PST
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE February 2, 2007
CURRENT MOON
COMING
BEST TIME TO TAKE HOLIDAYS
FEBRUARY
TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN WEATHER
WEATHER IN 2020
ABORIGINE PEOPLE
HOW WILL WE KNOW WHEN GLOBAL WARMING ARRIVES
WHY THE SEA WON'T KEEP RISING
COMPLETE LIST OF THINGS CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING
UK WINTER
WEATHER IN DUBLIN
CLIMATE CHANGE NOTES
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Current Moon
2nd: full moon
5th: crossing equator
8th: apogee(moon furthest away for month)
10th: last quarter
Temperatures will be warmer in the first and last weeks due to the Full
moons occurring about these times. However, by 8th, comes the apogee
which will be the 9th furthest from Earth for the year. This time not in
a powerful position, its influence should be to decrease the morning
airtide of the days of the last quarter thereby allowing warmer
mornings, with afternoons when the airtide does not completely depart -
therefore bringing pm conditions that are not too hot. The result should
be hottest days in the first week, pleasant summer days about 8th-12th,
a cooler third week, and temperatures starting to again rise in the last
week.
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Coming for NZ
In the first 4 days of the new month a trough of low pressure in the far
South brings unsettled Ws. A brief SW change occurs about 4th and by
the 5th from the SW a ridge of high pressure should extend onto the
country from an anticyclone in the Tasman that should last until around
11th.
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To all our Aussie neighbours
Still time left to take sunny holidays in NZ
Feb 19th-28th(NI, Marl. and Cant),
March 13th-21st(both islands), and
April 10th-17th(both islands)!
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February for NZ (from Predict Weather Almanac 2007)
- From the 18th onwards it may be mostly dry in the North Island, but
the South Island has more fine days.
- Widespread rain for both islands is likely in the third week.
North island
Wetter than average except for drier parts of the lower NI, with most
rain falling for the island in the first and second weeks of the month.
Parts of Northland, Gis/HB, Levin and Masterton southwards including
Wellington should be drier than the norm, but all other regions are
likely to be wetter.
Total sunshine hours in February could be slightly less than average.
For many districts temperatures may be below average. Whangarei and
Auckland may be warmer, also above normal in the SW from New Plymouth to
Wellington. The far north could be cooler than average. Hamilton, BoP,
Taupo and Hawkes Bay may have below average temperatures.
South Island
Mostly drier than average except for the top of the SI, southern
hydrolakes, Kaikoura and Fairlie.
Twice as much rain may fall in the first half of the month as in the
second half. The least rain period may be around the 8th-10th and
24th-27th, and the wettest period about the 7th. Total sunshine hours in
February could be slightly above average. Most districts should be
average to warmer and only Oamaru may be cooler than average.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st, 4th-8th, 12th-16th(heavier 1st, 4th, 5th)
Western, Central North Is: 1st-2nd, 4th-8th, 12th-16th, 23rd(heavier
7th, 14th)
Taupo: 1st-2nd 6th-8th, 12th-16th(heavier 1st, 13th, 15th)
Gisborne, HB: 1st-2nd 4th-8th, 11th-16th, 31st(heavier 5th, 8th)
Lower North Is: 1st-2nd, 6th-8th, 13th-16th, 22nd-23rd(heavier 1st,
14th, 16th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 6th-7th, 13th-15th, 28th(heavier 7th, 14th/15th)
Canterbury: 3rd, 5th-8th, 13th-18th(heavier 3rd, 7th, 14th)
Otago: 1st-3rd, 12th-15th, 22nd(heavier 22nd)
Southland and Dunedin: 1st-4th, 7th, 3rd, 12th-18th, 22nd, 27th(heavier
22nd)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 1st-3rd, 7th, 13th-14th, 17th-22nd(heavier
1st, 14th, 22nd)
FEBRUARY
1st-4th: A complex trough of low pressure passes to the far South
bringing a period of unsettled W conditions from 2nd. A brief SW change
follows its passage across the country by 4th. Some districts may get
heavy falls. A H sits to the NW of NZ.
5th-11th: A ridge of high pressure moves S in the Tasman and extends
onto NZ from a large anticyclone in the Tasman, while a smaller
anticyclone sits over HB. The two Hs merge with a trough in the middle
that affects Cant southwards. A depression just to the N of NZ brings
further unsettled E conditions to Northland and Auckland. This moves S
crossing the country by 8th followed by a brief period of cooler SW’s.
Anti-cyclonic conditions prevail from 9th over the N half of the NI,
bringing drier weather, but fronts continue to bother the far S.
12th-16th: By 12th a depression lays near Lord Howe Island. This later
moves slowly SE passing over the N of the SI by 16th. Strong SW winds at
first.
17th-20th: A cool S to SW airstream spreads over the whole of NZ with
temperatures much lower than in previous weeks, warming again by 22nd.
21st-28th: An anticyclone covers the N of NZ on 21st but is soon
followed by a disturbed W to NW airstream which spreads onto the SI by
22nd. This is followed by light southerlies until 28th.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around Full
moon(2nd), Apogee(8th), New moon(18th), and perigee(19th)
MOON IN FEBRUARY
2nd: Full Moon
5th: Crossing Equator
8th: Apogee
10th: Last Quarter
13th: Southern Declination
18th: New Moon
19th: Perigee #8
20th Crossing Equator
24th: 1st Quarter
26th: North Declination
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Tropical cyclones and rain coming to NZ
About 5 lots of cyclonic weather, either from TCs or subtropical lows
are expected between December 2006 and May 2007. Effects are likely mid
January, after mid February, in second week of March and the third week
in April. In January we did receive bad weather from the subtropical
low, and the next is expected about 8th-13th. In Feb most of the rain
for both islands comes in the first half of the month. The weather gets
better after the 17th.
The West Coast may see some disastrous weather in the first week of
March. March will be a bad month weatherwise for many. In March cyclonic
weather may affect around first week, also 10th-11th. Wellington will be
affected by storms in the fourth week of April. The worst of SI weather
may be about mid June. October should be a bad rain month for the NI,
and the top and west of the SI. November may bring widespread heavy rain
to the upper NI. Severe December weather just before New Years Eve
should close the year with some drama.
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Australian Weather
Over the next fortnight:
By 1st, rain comes to NE of WA and NW of NT as a low remains stationary
over the border. Rain may also come S of Port Hedland and to Brisbane. A
low forms in the N Coral Sea. Melborne and Sydney should be dry as a
high sits off the NSW S coast. Lows in the top half of the country
achieve about 1010mbs. Most places stay or become dry, a big high
approaches Perth from the west
By 2nd, lows again gather and with lowering barometric pressures,
develop in the north of all northern States. The QSLD and NSW coasts may
be showery. Highs drift into the Bight and bring dry weather to the SW
of WA. A front brings showers to the VIC S coast and to TAS.
By 3rd, a TC forms in the Nth Australian bight but dissipates bringing
rain inland to the west. Another L around Pt Hedland brings rain to the
SW. Rain on coast between Sydney and Brisbane as a front moves through.
A H sits in the southern Bight as another sits W of Perth.
By 4th, the lows to the N start descending inland but one in the N Coral
Sea remains. A H sits E of Sydney bringing drier conditions to the E
coast. A L affects the SW of WA before moving into the Bight.
By 5th, Ls bring rain to the N of NT, Tablelands and the Selwyn Range,
also the QSLD NSW border and much of cent and E NSW. A H pushes on
towards Perth as a L moves through the Bight, blocked by a H over TAS
and lower VIC.
By 6th, The L through the Bight reaches VIC. Some showers possible from
Bega to Brisbane and inland QSLD near the SE. Showers also N of a line
from Townsville to PT Hedland.
By 7th, A L remains centred over the Daly River in NT, bringing rain
along the W coast. Showers also in N parts of Cape Peninsular, also
coastal parts of N Sydney. A H sits in the Bight as a L crosses TAS.
Another L forms in the N Coral Sea.
By 8th, the N continues to be affected by low pressure systems, one over
Arnhem Land, one over Pt Hedland and one in the Coral Sea. WA receives
the effects of a H moving across the SW of the State.
By 9th, the Ls remain in the N but the one over Pt Hedland moves W and
then S around the Exmouth coast. The H in the southern Bight
intensifies.
By 10th, The L on the W coast of WA continues southward. The L N of
Arnhem land moves further N. Rain to coastal NSW areas N of Sydney, also
to NE of WA, cent NT and E NT, also showers to cairns and N parts of
Cape Peninsular.
By 11th, The L in the far N dissipates. Showers still on coast W of Pt
Hedland, Perth and some W inland areas of WA, Kimberleys and N of
Brisbane. A L sits about the SW corner of WA, and the H in the Bight
begins to move towards and over TAS. The L over Coral Sea begins
traveling S.
By 12th, a TC forms in the N Bight, affecting most of N NT and the Cape
Peninsular. Showers dying out in the Kimberleys. Another begins to the
NW of Pt Hedland. The L from the Coral Sea continues S and brings
showers down most of the E coast from Cape Peninsula to Canberra. A L
and associated cold front brings rain to inland Perth. Showers also in E
SA.
By 13th, the TC that formed in the N bight moves E and then S about the
northern E coast. Rain in N of WA and Lake Carnegie area, in N of NT,
in E of SA and much of VIC. A series of fronts pass through the southern
Bight.
By 14th, A L continues to form in the sea in the far NW, and on the E
side the TC gains in strength affecting the top NE of the country. In
the S, a H comes over SW WA.
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AUSTRALIA REGIONS
Sydney notes (2UE interview)
Feb
Some rain on the N coast around the beginning of the month, then later
in that first week widespread rain mainly in the eastern half of NSW and
on the 10th again on the N coast. Then around 14th the Darling River
area and Broken Hill should get goodly amounts of rain, then on
15th-16th odd falls in the middle of the State, and about the 17th
there's more on the E coast, and then just on the N coast again for the
18th and 19th. On Feb 20th N central and NE areas can expect gray skies.
But from the 18th it starts clearing up
March
The dry continues until rain on the E coast about March 4th, then
9th-11th and even the dry NW will get rain, then on the 13th or 14th
it's back on the E coast and all gone again by 15th. By 17th March the W
half of the State will get a dosing and that will move to the central
State by 18th March and by the 20th March the whole E half of the State
should be under rain clouds but it may be shortlived because it'll be
quite gusty and wind tends to blow rain away. If the wind drops there
could be odd good days of rain in that last ten days of March.
April
3rd April - rain on N coast, 4th-on S border, but in E it's all going to
stay pretty dry until about 6th or 7th of April and then rain widespread
for the E especially the NE. Then more around midmonth on E coast, on
the W side of the State around 17th-18th. Finally some in the S of NSW
about 20th and 27th
May
Rain in E NSW in the first week, then around the 12th-13th and then the
20th onwards. The last few days of May should see the heavens open. And
that lot will all be over by the 1st of June
June
The next rain will be in the central N on 7th-9th June and the middle of
the month will see rain to many districts in all central and E areas.
The 19th of June brings more for the W half of the State, crossing to
the E half by the 20th and to the S half by the 21st. and then petering
out everywhere.
So for the first half of the year, no shortage of rain.
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SYDNEY
Radio 2UE Sydney, hosts George and Paul, SAT 27 Jan 2007 09:15
PAUL.. the heavy rain across central south-eastern Australia appears to
be signalling the end of the El Nino climate cycle. Earlier this week,
‘The Australian’ newspaper suggested that drought-breaking rain fall
could be arriving over the coming weeks. But, scientists are warning
that the rain needs to be substantial to end the five year drought that
has been the worst on record since Federation. Joining us on the program
is Ken Ring, Author of ‘Predict Weather for Australia Almanac 2007’.
Ken came on the program back on January the 6th and we thought we’d
catch up to hear his thoughts on the ‘breaking of the drought’.
Questions…
1. Ken, the Bureau of Meteorology has suggested that it would be
premature to call the end of the El Nino climate cycle. Do you agree?
Well I look at cycles and yes, this El Nino is on the way out. You can’t
say it’ll be gone by lunchtime on Tuesday but you can say this year
there’ll be plenty of rain, March and April for Northern Territories,
April to June for a lot of NSW, QSLD and VIC, June for W and SA, and TAS
is already getting a lot(Hobart had nearly 70mm on Monday).. El Nino
comes every 9 years, and the last one was 1997. So this particular cycle
is over and I think we’re moving on.
2. El Ninos, according to the Bureau, tend to end in autumn rather than
in summer – what do you make of that? Do you agree?
They talk about El Nino when it’s dry, not the other way around, so the
dryness comes first and then the talk. So of course when autumn comes
the summer is over, things cool down, rain comes, farms are no longer as
dry, and El Nino means nothing to anyone. Then they noticed that an El
Nino bringing hot air correlated with sea temperature changes, because
the sun heats from above. So now they’ve got a new slant on it, it’s oh
the oceans are cooling, El Nino must be over.
3. Some areas in South Australia received more rain over the last
weekend than they did for all of last year – what do you make of that?
That just shows you two things, firstly that that the drought is moving
away. Secondly it shows that the moon cycles are operating nicely. For
instance, Adelaide got 30mm last weekend, so did Mt Gambier and Whyalla
got a good dumping. Now if you look back 19 years and a certain number
of days which is the moon cycle you'll find that Whaylla got a
spectacular dump of 40mm on that day. You go back another lot of around
19 years to 1979 and the records say 40mm fell again. Same again in
1960, and in 1941. So I'm just saying all this can actually be
predicted, if only the official forecasters turned their attention to
the moon, not to mention their vast resources.
4. But, one thing to bear in mind, is that many parts of the country,
including the cropping areas of QLD, NSW and Eastern Victoria haven’t
received any rain – so there’s no rejoining there at the moment. Are
they likely to receive rain?
I’m expecting good rain in mid February to east VIC and also in the
first and last weeks of March. Then around the 4th, 10th, 20th and end
of April.
QSLD can expect more than average in the NE in February, also
Rockhampton and Colouna and Julia Creek. In NSW the rain in February
will mainly be in the N coast area and Richmond Ranges, but also Ivanhoe
in the west and Wollongong.
5. What does the future hold for rainfall in Sydney?
I think the dams will be okay and the State will be wetter than average
for the year overall, but Sydney itself can expect a drier than average
year with no really heavy rain until the third week of March.
Coming up immediately I think Sydney may get more rain around the end of
this month and next month about the 6th, 17th and 20th, then a long fine
spell from 20 Feb till the 3rd or 4th of March. Easter will be wet and
the end of April will be foggy, May rain will be average. I think you’ll
get rain through the winter months but overall it won’t break any
records. June, I’ve got down as a month of wind, and again in the last
week of July. Spring could be dryish but mid October may bring gales and
thunderstorms, but probably more noise than actual rain. November and
December will be nice and showery, and in December you may even get
flash flooding in the north from a thunderstorm. So I guess you could
say for the year there’ll be plenty of rain days and a lot of gray skies
but not that much actual rain.
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Canberra rain relief
The first half of January may be wet. February should be very dry and
rain may return in the last week of March. For Canberra, 2007 is
expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with autumn likely to
be wetter than average. Because the moon's perigee sweep-by will be
further away from earth in Dec and Jan, temperatures may not climb as
high. There may be hot spots though, like 19 Jan which may also be over
30C, also as the moon starts to come in closer again early in 2007,
temperatures may climb to 30s for Feb 18-29, March 8-10 and 16-19. On
March 21st the moon will be 4th closest to earth for the year and should
be the last time the temperatures go anywhere near 30 for the summer
season. After that temperatures for Canberra should drop quickly into
autumn mode. Sub-zero minimums should click in around June 24 and end in
mid Oct, with the coldest part of next winter happening in late
July/early August.
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Perth
1. What would be the best day to play golf on, not too hot, no rain and
little wind, what day of the week should it be?
Avoid February. First half of Feb too hot - possibly in 40s.
2. Summer was late this year, are we likely to have our heat waves in
April next year as well?
No.
3. So, is there any predicted rainfall for next year?
Overall a drier than average year, the wettest half of 2007 should be
the second half, and the wettest months Aug and Oct.
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Townsville notes for 2007
A wetter than average year overall, months wetter than average should be
Apr-July , also December.
Sept may be an average rain month, but all the rest of the months should
be drier than average.
By month
Feb, drier than average month, a lot of rain around the middle of the
month, 13th-19th, cyclonic about 15th and possible floods 15th-20th
March, drier than average month, most rain in the second half of the
month, heavier 17th and 26th
April, a wetter than average month, with more rain in first half than
the second.
May, another wtter than normal month, more rain falling during the first
and last weeks.
June wetter than average, about 6 wet days, so rain will be in big
dumps, for instance about 7th and 17th
July only about 5 wet days but a wetter than average month, so expect
large downpours
Aug, little or no rain at all
Sept, only 1 or 2 rain days
Oct, little or no rain
Nov, about half the average rain amount for the month
Dec, a wetter than average month, most coming in first and last weeks,
and in the NE some gales and stormy weather in the last few days.
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ADELAIDE
Interview with Grant Cameron, ABC radio Adelaide, 29 January 2007
GRANT: Can we expect an end to the drought?
Adelaide's rain average is about 550mm. This year overall Adelaide and
the Western Plains may have an drier than average year and I would guess
about 350mm as the bottom figure and maybe more, especially as your
January figure has been a healthy 40mm so far out of an average of 20mm.
Few months may be wetter than average, with March much drier than it
should be. BUT the rest of SA may have a mostly wetter than average
year, that's Spencer Gulf, the SE, and the N and NW. As far as the
drought goes, I think we are passed the year of the peak of it
GRANT: Why should Adelaide get less than the rest of the State?
The reason for this is always impossible to say for sure, but towns to
the north of the State will not have such extreme high temperatures as
they have had in the last year or so, because the maximum declination
(rising/setting angle)of the moon has passed, the latter which brings
temperature extremes every 18.613 years. The way it works is that
declination affects areas furthest north towards the equator and
furthest south towards the poles the most. When the moon changes
hemispheres the barometric pressures change, and the more dramatic lunar
latitude shifts have the biggest effect on the pressures. Pressure
changes translate into temperatures and condensation possibilities.
Pressure gradients and temperature differential in turn create wind
directions, and for watchers on the ground, opportunities to witness
these changes by noting wind shift. To understand these changes a
little better here are my wind predictions for the first half of the
year.
January: some E and NE winds in January, but most wind should be from S
and W, so cooler temperatures at various times of the month.
February: Again wind mostly from S and W, although there may be a run
of E and NE winds in the first half and Ws in the last week.
March: W and NW to start the month, E and NE in the second week, then
SEs until around 18th, followed by W and NWs, and back to SW and W for
the last week. From March until September not much wind from the SW may
eventuate, so a good sign for a warmer autumn.
April: Mostly S and SEs interspersed with some W and NWs until last
week, giving way to W and NWs for the rest of the month.
May: Many Es for first half of the month, and after 21st mostly NWs.
June: NWs for the first week changing to SEs until 10th, then NWs until
midmonth and changing back to SEs again until 15th. Ws and NWs then come
again until 20th. The last week may see Ss give way to SEs and the last
two days may see a NW change.
GRANT: We've had some rain, will we get more?
For Jan(av:19mm) I've had you down for 4 but you've had 5 rain days,
perhaps a bit more tomorrow in some places, and you've had 40mm so far,
and your average is 19mm for January, so perhaps you haven't done too
bad.
In Feb(av:14mm), which is normally your driest month anyway, for this
month maybe only 2-3 rain days, 14th, 21st, 24th.
For March(av:26mm), not much rain but gray skies 2nd, 16th, 21st, 24th,
26th, and rain could come around those dates.
In April(av:39mm) I expect odd bits of rain around 4th, 7th, 9th, then
much in the second half between 17th-22nd, and 25th-29th.
Easter should be fine all weekend.
In May(av:63mm) there could be 8 rain days, all in second and third
weeks.
Over June(av: 83mm), normally the year's wettest month, this time
average rain, the driest period likely to be 11th-18th.
-------------------------------
Weather in year 2020
Channel 7 TV Sydney, Interview 26 Jan 2007
INTERVIWER: there have been economic and political forecasts about what
life will be like in 2020. Tim Flannery and the environmental doomsayers
have projected that global warming will by then have becfdome a global
catastrophe. So our question is, longrange what will the weather for
Australia be like in 2020?
We have to start with the cycles of sun and moon. The first of these is
the sunspot cycle. When you get high sunspot activity, you get good
rainfall -- low sunspot activity, you get drought conditions.
We're have been in a low sunspot period for the past few years, but
coming out of that and rising up to next peak 2011/12. Sunspot activity
peaks about every 9-13 years, or an average of 11 years. The last peak
was 2000-02. So from the standpoint of 2020 in hindsight the last peak
will have been 2011/12 and the last sunspot minimum would have been
reached about 2016-18 and we have noticed we usually get an El Nino
after a minimum. Therefore El Nino should have kicked in around Sept
2016 and with a hot spring that year start a new series of drought-years
from Dec 2016, peaking in 2018, which means 2020 is going to be the tail
end of it. So I think it'll be like this year, just starting to come out
of a bad drought time. As far as the orbits of the moon are concerned,
full moons and perigees start to occur over summer months in 2016 which
supports the drought scenario that the sunspot cycle indicates. By 2020
full moons and perigee combinations start to drift apart, usually an
indication that dry hot summers have passed their peak.
INTERVIWER: Can you describe what 2020 will be like, weatherwise..any
disasters?
In 2020 the year will probably kick off with a wet January. Summer
should arrive a bit late, probably clicking in about the last half of
February. March should bring some hot temperatures in the second week
and this should brew at least one tropical cyclone which could affect
the east coast of QSLD and NSW. April should be the hottest month and
there may be storms and another tropical cyclone in the first week. In
May, it should be dry in first half but wet in the second, and a lot of
places will start to get relief from May onwards as the moon-Earth
distance begins to increase. By June the drought may be considered
broken. July and Aug should be a lot cooler and Sept to Nov will feel
like winter months, with gales and stormy weather arriving around the
middle of these months.
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Aborigine People
The hottest continent in the world is probably Australia, and the
hottest part is possibly Northern Territories, which is occupied by the
Aboriginal peoples. Not only are they staying on that hot hot hot place,
AND running around in bare feet, but they seasonally light widespread
bushfires to burn the scrub and regenerate the land. They make it
hotter!! It is Aboriginal groups who traditionally do the burn-offs in
the Northern Territories, as they have always done, with the result that
Northern Territory has Australia's highest rate of emissions per person.
But controlled and calculated burning regimes have been implemented in
the Australian landscape for 40,000 years. The Aborigines seem to know
about cycles and perhaps the world's climatologists, those who say they
don't understand climate change, should ask the tribespeople to explain
some things. They are very generous people and would be more than
willing to sgare their wisdom. We won't ask them, perhaps because we
don't want to hear the truth. Global warming is an issue for politicians
wanting to get kickbacks from certain energy suppliers and wanting to
impose certain taxes. Shouldn't we be asking the Aborigines about
tackling climate change?
So far not one Aborigine has expressed fear that global warming is a
problem. Not one tribe is saying..oh gee, it's gettin too hot for us
now, we gotta move south. Yet they live in the hottest part. I wonder
which culture would be the first to know global warming had arrived.
What about the rest of us?
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How will we know when global warming arrives?
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless
series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
- H L Mencken
If global warming were to occur, there would be several indicators. The
obvious would be rising temperatures, both maximums and minimums, in all
seasons for all places. This has not been noticed and the latest
estimate of three thousandths of a degree per year reported over the
whole globe by the IPCC has not yet been incorporated into all areas.
The second would be the increase in seawater temperature the world over.
This has not happened that we know of. The next would be a dramatic
increase in precipitation in essentially all parts of the world, not
just a few. With warmer sea temps, there would be greater evaporation
and thus more rain and snow, everywhere. Deserts would become steppes.
Steppes would become forest. Boreal forests would become rainforest.
This hasn’t happened in the centuries since the industrial revolution
began. Another indication would be more vegetation all of which thrives
on CO2, heat, and the extra humidity that would increase under a warmer
atmosphere. The flow-on effect will be more insects, birds and fish than
ever before, in short, less species becoming extinct. This has not been
noticed. Countries to the far north and far south would say a permanent
goodbye to cold winters and hello to tropical trees and shrubs. Figs
could be grown in Invercargill. This has so far not happened. There
would not be any country showing a cooling trend at all. The next to be
noticed would be sealevel dropping everywhere due to the increased
evaporation. The resulting greater precipitation would also cause a
build-up of icesheets over both poles and surrounding regions, dropping
the sealevel even more. The approximately 25 million people currently
classified as being environmental refugees will begin marching, catching
planes, trains and buses out of towns. So far no one has noticed any
mass exodus. This mass migration is projected to rise to 150 million by
2050 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is
8,000 per day starting from now, on top of the holidaymakers and
business travellers already taking to international skies. As a result,
airline bookings may become scarcer very soon. Australian climate
scientist Dr Graeme Pearman has predicted that a 2°C rise in temperature
would place 100 million people 'directly at risk from just coastal
flooding' by 2100. The problem is where they are going to go to, as they
cannot get off the globe and wherever they do end up they will
presumably have to join the exodus leaving their new country.
Geographical confusion will thus be rife, with people endlessly queuing
at airports both upon landing and upon reboarding. This will be fairly
easy to spot because everyone will be living at the airport. The next
global warming indication will be the arrival of malaria and dengue
fever. These are carried by special mosquitos. Look for when the mozzies
around the pool look odd and sound different.
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Gender inequalities will likely worsen with climate change.
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2006/11/01/climate-mufti
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The Earth will explode due to global warming
http://nujournal.net/core.pdf
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CO2 NOTES
ref: ftp://ftp.niwa.co.nz/tropac/co2/bhd/Bhdco2m.dat
According to NIWA at their Baring Head station CO2 levels have risen
from 324.82ppm on Jan-1970 to 368.13 on Dec-2001. That's a rise of 44
parts per million over 30 years, up from 0.000325% to 0.000368%, or 1 in
25,000. Global catastrophe?
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Why The Sea Won't Keep Rising
Could it be true that the global warming/climate change theory is
actually a mind trick? There is an old Law in physics called the
Archimedes Principle of Flotation which states that when a solid is
immersed in a liquid, it displaces a portion of the liquid equal to
itself in bulk. This means if you stick something in the water the water
level rises around the thing. No problem there. The level of the water
rises just as much as if an amount of water had been added to it, equal
in amount to the thing you immersed. So the Law says
Immersion=Displacement. okay so far..
Now, we move one step forward. The same thing occurs when a something is
only PARTLY immersed, which means that for a stick put into a bucket of
water, the amount of liquid that gets pushed up the sides is the same
amount as the amount of stick that goes into the water. Quite obvious
really.
So far, that much is known to every schoolboy and girl who has had
drilled into them, year after year, the story of Archimedes watching the
bath water-level rise up the side of the tub as he lowered himself into
the water. In that instant, Mr A. leapt out and ran naked down the
street yelling Eureka!! which is either Greek for 'I've found it!' - or
it was what they all yelled if a bath was too hot.
Jump ahead 2,100 years to Lewis Carroll, the famed author of Alice in
Wonderland, who was also Deacon of Mathematics at Oxford University.
Writing in 1885 in his "Balbus's Essay" Carroll set out a mathematical
paradox. 4+2=6, so 6=4+2. Immersion=displacement, so
displacement=immersion again.theoretically..and this should go on
forever..
Let's suppose, wrote Carroll, that you dip the end of a long thick stick
in a bucket of water. The water displaced by the immersion rises up the
side..(displacement=immersion)
Now the stick is DEEPER IN (because stuff went up the side..)
BUT (here's the cruncher) being deeper-in is like it's IMMERSED MORE so
(virtual immersion=displacement) MORE (virtual)water should then travel
up the side of the bucket
So now the stick is EVEN DEEPER IN (displacement=immersion).
Therefore it must be immersed MORE, so what happens? MORE water
(immersion=displacement) goes up the side.
So now the stick is EVEN MORE DEEPER IN..etc. This is the problem. What
this Law says in principle works in maths, but not in real life. This is
because the equals sign in maths goes both ways.
This (virtual)process continues forever until the entire stick is under
water, and anything else connected with the stick, in this case you,
will also soon be in deep schtok under water. (Global warmers, can you
see where this is leading?) So, by this "model", therefore, if you hold
a stick six feet in length with its end in a mere half-full drinking
glass and wait long enough, stick-and-you must eventually be covered in
endless water. But, you ask, where will all the rest of the water come
from? And how will it stay up?
Hmm..it is rather annoying as to where this extra water for the tumbler
will come from, which does not of course apply to the vast sea. Let us
therefore take the instance of a man standing ankle-deep at the edge of
the sea, at ebb tide, with a six-foot pole in his hand, which he points
into the sea. He remains steadfast and unmoved, and according to this
virtual scenario, which is exactly in line with the way current climate
science works, soon he must be drowned. Of course if this was the case
there would be multitudes dying each day just by standing in the sea. It
sounds stupid, but that is what is being offered us every day in
newspapers, radio and TV by the climate scientists in this climate
change debate. They cannot see they are stuck in the middle of their own
paradox!
In case you didn't get it first time around, let us state the problem
again. A stick placed in a pond will displace a volume of water. The act
of displacement raises the water level. The action of water level-rise
results in the stick being even more immersed, which must displace more
water, which further continues to raise the water level and immerse
more of the stick and this must keep going indefinitely. There is no
mathematical flaw, as the principle is stated, and a computer model
would state the same result.
There is only a logic flaw. It woiuld be funny if it were not for the
millions poured into it, this story of supposed runaway, unstoppable
global warming.
And we've all had it rammed down our throats, here's how it goes:
1. We burn fossil fuels.
2. They produce CO2.
3. The Earth warms.
4. To absorb the CO2 we grow forests, which become the new measure of a
country's wealth.
5. These newly wealthy countries produce more industry (because they can
now afford to), which will burn more and more fossil fuels.
6. This is an endless process which will increase CO2 ad infinitum which
will bring about the end of the world.
Meanwhile, parallel to this time period there are extreme weather events
unexplainable to current weather-science (aren't there always?). Their
apparent or imagined correlation to the relatively recent era of
industrialization can only mean one thing: one must be causing the
other.
So the unstoppable process causes catastrophic climate change, part of
which, purely because of the growth in industrialization, is causing
rising sea-levels which will soon drown us all. If that doesn't do us
in, the air is also going to poison us all through pollution, countless
millions of immigrant climate refugees will kill us all by importing
disease, and as the CO2-rise slowly replaces oxygen, we will all be
killed all over again by suffocation.
There is no mention where the vast supplies of CO2 are going to come
from to do all this dirty work, as CO2 only ever can constitute about
350 parts per million of the whole atmosphere at any one time, and CO2
is always heavier than air. Oh yes, it sometimes does vary and an
increase in CO2 has been 1 part in 25,000 over the past 30 years. So?
What a catastrophe of monumental proportions (and I mean of commonsense,
not climate).
Will we really be killed by this scenario or is it just a perfect
instance of a little-known and largely forgotten paradox that is now
over 120 years old? Is it possible that the paradox has been completely
overlooked even by some of the best brains in the world such as Stephen
Hawkins, in the ever-rising and submerging-us wave called global climate
change? I say yes. Just because a guy is a scientist doesn't mean he is
smart and has all the answers. I bet he loses his socks at the same rate
as the rest of us. Einstein once admitted that when in his rowboat he
often forgot which way to row to go forwards.
But many are riding this wave now for all they are worth. We, the
gullible dummies, are paying for it,. Look how all those previously
boring climatologists have now new-found academic limelight and qualify
for higher wages and retirement packages. New groups are squealing and
pushing forwards to feed at this trough. Economists will achieve media
and political kudos that translates into consultancy services, big
business will grab at environmental-do-good stunts that act as free
advertising(e.g. the $3 billion pledge from Sir Richard Branson to help
fight global warming, yeah right), research teams will corner the market
in state-funding, governments will be given mandates to impose carbon
taxes, greenie groups will achieve more political clout, oil companies
will find they can inflate prices for the "scarce" oil and sell
newly-acquired alternative energy products/services such as wind, solar
and nuclear technologies, and offshore banks will delight in running the
international gaming house for carbon bond trading. Entrepreneurs will
always jump on a bandwagon money-making opportunity. They do not care
for the welfare of the planet, nor scientific fact, and it is shameful
that the university world that used to subscribe to truth and integrity
now offers the loot-grabbers a scam dressed up in the finery of
scientific respectability.
Yet so far NOT ONE computer model of future global catastrophe has been
validated. Not one has demonstrated quite exactly how a VERY tiny amount
of CO2 extended briefly into the air is going to be able to overcome the
WHOLE atmosphere, especially the cool upper part of which is -50C, and
engulf the whole planet with warmth. If any scientist believes in
runaway global warming, unstoppable climate change and relentlessly
rising sea-levels, he is NOT living in the real world but in the fantasy
mathematical/computer dream-world of Alice in Wonderland.
The day the globe warms will be the SAME day that YOU find you are able
to dip the end of a long stick in the water and make the sea rise up
like a huge tsunami and consume us all.
Send this to someone
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=59
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The complete list of things caused by global warming:
Each list item is linked to a news story. Go to the website
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/2045/ if you want
to follow up on any.
Agricultural land increase, Africa devastated, African aid threatened,
air pressure changes, Alaska reshaped, allergies increase, Alps melting,
Amazon a desert, American dream end, amphibians breeding earlier (or
not), ancient forests dramatically changed, Antarctic grass flourishes,
anxiety, algal blooms, Arctic bogs melt, Asthma, atmospheric defiance,
atmospheric circulation modified, avalanches reduced, avalanches
increased, bananas destroyed, bananas grow, bet for $10,000, better
beer, big melt faster, billion dollar research projects, billions of
deaths, bird distributions change, birds return early, blackbirds stop
singing, blizzards, blue mussels return, boredom, Britain Siberian,
British gardens change, bubonic plague, budget increases, building
season extension, bushfires, business opportunities, business risks,
butterflies move north, cardiac arrest, caterpillar biomass shift,
challenges and opportunities, Cholera, civil unrest, cloud increase,
cloud stripping, cod go south, cold climate creatures survive, cold
spells (Australia), computer models, conferences, coral bleaching, coral
reefs dying, coral reefs grow, coral reefs shrink , cold spells, cost of
trillions, crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems, cyclones
(Australia), damages equivalent to $200 billion, Dengue hemorrhagic
fever, dermatitis, desert advance, desert life threatened, desert
retreat, destruction of the environment, diarrhoea, disappearance of
coastal cities, diseases move north, Dolomites collapse, drought,
drowning people, ducks and geese decline, dust bowl in the corn belt,
early spring, earlier pollen season, Earth biodiversity crisis, Earth
dying, Earth even hotter, Earth light dimming, Earth lopsided, Earth
melting, Earth morbid fever, Earth on fast track, Earth past point of no
return, Earth slowing down, Earth spinning out of control, Earth to
explode, earth upside down, Earth wobbling, earthquakes, El Niño
intensification, erosion, emerging infections, encephalitis, Europe
simultaneously baking and freezing, evolution accelerating, expansion
of university climate groups, extinctions (human, civilisation, logic,
Inuit, smallest butterfly, cod, ladybirds, bats, pandas, pikas, polar
bears, pigmy possums, gorillas, koalas, walrus, whales, frogs, toads,
turtles, orang-utan, elephants, tigers, plants, salmon, trout, wild
flowers, woodlice, penguins, a million species, half of all animal and
plant species, less, not polar bears), experts muzzled, extreme changes
to California, famine, farmers go under, figurehead sacked, fish catches
drop, fish catches rise, fish stocks decline, five million illnesses,
floods, Florida economic decline, food poisoning, food prices rise,
food security threat (SA), footpath erosion, forest decline, forest
expansion, frosts, fungi invasion, Garden of Eden wilts, genetic
diversity decline, gene pools slashed, glacial retreat, glacial growth,
glacier wrapped, global cooling, global dimming, glowing clouds, Gore
omnipresence, grandstanding, grasslands wetter, Great Barrier Reef 95%
dead, Great Lakes drop, greening of the North, Gulf Stream failure,
habitat loss, Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, harvest increase, harvest
shrinkage, hay fever epidemic, hazardous waste sites breached, heat
waves, hibernation ends too soon, hibernation ends too late, high court
debates, human fertility reduced, human health improvement, human health
risk, hurricanes, hydropower problems, hyperthermia deaths, ice sheet
growth, ice sheet shrinkage, inclement weather, infrastructure failure
(Canada), Inuit displacement, Inuit poisoned, Inuit suing, industry
threatened, infectious diseases, insurance premium rises, invasion of
midges, island disappears, islands sinking, itchier poison ivy,
jellyfish explosion, Kew Gardens taxed, krill decline, lake and stream
productivity decline, landslides, landslides of ice at 140 mph, lawsuits
increase, lawsuit successful, lawyers’ income increased (surprise,
surprise!), lightning related insurance claims, little response in the
atmosphere, Lyme disease, Malaria, malnutrition, Maple syrup shortage,
marine diseases, marine food chain decimated, marine dead zone, Meaching
(end of the world), megacryometeors, Melanoma, methane emissions from
plants, methane burps, melting permafrost, Middle Kingdom convulses,
migration, migration difficult (birds), microbes to decompose soil
carbon more rapidly, more bad air days, more research needed, mountain
(Everest) shrinking, mountains break up, mountains taller, mudslides,
next ice age, Nile delta damaged, no effect in India, nuclear plants
bloom, oaks move north, ocean acidification, outdoor hockey threatened,
oyster diseases, ozone loss, ozone repair slowed, ozone rise, Pacific
dead zone, personal carbon rationing, pest outbreaks, pests increase,
phenology shifts, plankton blooms, plankton destabilised, plankton
loss, plant viruses, plants march north, polar bears aggressive, polar
bears cannibalistic, polar bears drowning, polar bears starve, polar
tours scrapped, psychosocial disturbances, railroad tracks deformed,
rainfall increase, rainfall reduction, refugees, reindeer larger,
release of ancient frozen viruses, resorts disappear, rice yields crash,
rift on Capitol Hill, rioting and nuclear war, rivers raised, rivers dry
up, rockfalls, rocky peaks crack apart, roof of the world a desert, Ross
river disease, salinity reduction, salinity increase, Salmonella,
salmon stronger, sea level rise, sea level rise faster, sex change,
sharks booming, shrinking ponds, ski resorts threatened, slow death,
smog, snowfall increase, snowfall reduction, societal collapse,
songbirds change eating habits, sour grapes, spiders invade Scotland,
squid population explosion, squirrels reproduce earlier, spectacular
orchids, stormwater drains stressed, taxes, tectonic plate movement,
terrorism, ticks move northward (Sweden), tides rise, tourism increase,
trade winds weakened, tree beetle attacks, tree foliage increase (UK),
tree growth slowed, trees could return to Antarctic, trees less
colourful, trees more colourful, tropics expansion, tropopause raised,
tsunamis, turtles lay earlier, UK Katrina, Venice flooded, volcanic
eruptions, walrus pups orphaned, war, wars over water, water bills
double, water supply unreliability, water scarcity (20% of increase),
water stress, weather out of its mind, weather patterns awry, weeds,
Western aid cancelled out, West Nile fever, whales move north, wheat
yields crushed in Australia, white Christmas dream ends, wildfires, wind
shift, wind reduced, wine - harm to Australian industry, wine industry
damage (California), wine industry disaster (US), wine - more English,
wine -German boon, wine - no more French , winters in Britain colder,
wolves eat more moose, wolves eat less, workers laid off, World
bankruptcy, World in crisis, Yellow fever
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From last ezine
Why The Drought Is Nearly Gone
Evidence that the Australian drought is nearly over can be found by
looking at the timing of past droughts, and identifying a pattern. It
will come as no surprise that all drought periods have appeared around
El Nino years, because talk of El Nino usually comes about after the dry
sets in. But it may put a different twist on the matter if El Nino is
identified as a sequential pattern that can be used to extrapolate both
into the distant past for which records are unavailable and into future
years not yet come.
Readers will remember that the signature of an El Nino is warmer water
off the west of South America with heavy rain and floods there and
corresponding cooler water off Australia leading to drought. An El Nino
is the result of changes in the air pressure across the southern Pacific
Ocean, known as the southern oscillation index. It is little known or
recognized amongst meteorologists that changes in air pressure are
brought about monthly by the moon changing hemispheres, and every 18-19
years a maximum north and south latitude is reached in this cycle
bringing peaks to the air pressure change system which results in a
regime cycle in temperatures.
It appears that the weather experts cannot get a proper grip on the El
Nino/ La Nina oscillation because they are too busy looking at ocean
temperatures as measured by buoys. Their belief seems to be that sea
temperatures heat the air and then drive the air pressure in what they
see as a closed system. However it is not a closed system and the air
temperatures and pressures come first. In other words the air above the
sea heats the surface of the sea and not vice versa. The air temperature
is driven by the heat from the sun. The fact that there might be an
identifiable cycle is less attractive today, when it is more fashionable
to be shrugging shoulders and claiming weird unaccountable weather
devoid of pattern is now the rule. Such talk generates more research
funding and opens the way to carbon taxes on gases put artificially into
the air. Then, apparently the climate may be brought back to "normal",
as defined by politicians and economists.
It does not take much analysis of data already in the possession of the
climatologists to see the pattern is evident and it is robust. The
drought of 1901-2 was called an El Nino year, as were the years 1913-14,
1918-20, 1935-36, 1940, 1943-44, 1951, 1965-68, 1972-73, 1982-83,
1991-95 and 1996 onwards. These have been the main Australian
drought-defined periods of the last century. Equivalent dry years in the
previous century would have been 1807, 1825, 1843, 1888. Unfortunately
Sydney data goes back only to 1858, and Sydney received only about half
the average rainfall in 1888(583mm) which fits the pattern.
Between 1900 and 2006 a total of 11 identified El Ninos have occurred in
106 years, averaging 9.5 years between each. Droughts occur in the same
place every 9-11 years. This is a combination of the lunar cycle of
9.years and the sunspot cycle of 11 years. These gaps are not exact and
may vary over a shorter term, but over a longer term the average gap
closely adheres to this figure.
Let's look at a few gap years between dry periods. Droughts were during
1963-68 then 1972-73, showing a 9 yr gap between 1963-1972. The next
drought was 1982-83. It is 9 yrs between 1973-1982. Then we had the
drought of 1991-95. It is 9 years between 1982-1991. After that we have
drought kicking in around 2005. It is 10 years between 1995-2005. 9
years is a multiple of 18 and 36, which are lunar cycles. From this, we
can predict that the next El Nino and Australian drought period of
significance may click in around 2011-12.
Rainfall figures spanning 1938-2005 for Glenprairie, QSLD, have been
sent to me. Low rain years there fit in very well to the El Nino
pattern. They were 1938(504mm), 1944/45(531mm), 1952(461mm),
1957(361mm), 1965/66(336mm), 1972(476mm), 1977, 1982(375mm),
1987(503mm), 1992/93(451mm), 1997(438mm), 2002(345mm), 2006(453mm). The
gap numbers between these years are roughly 6, 7, 5, 8, 7, 5, 5, 5, 5,
5, 5, 5. Droughts are plottable near maximum lunar declinations,
because high maximum temperatures become more extreme with the moon's
more northern latitude. Mostly, the years following lunar maximum
declinations have been wetter than average and we can look to them for
years of rain relief. These years have been have been 1804, 1840, 1858,
1899, 1915, 1933, 1951, 1971, 1989, 2007, and perhaps will be 2026.
Again Glenprairie still shows a clear trend, for example
heavier-than-average rain years were 1951 with 1187(mm), 1971(1340mm),
and 1990(1076mm).
So drought-hit farmers can take heart. They may have passed the worst of
it.
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UK Winter
London may not get to see cooler precipitation until the end of January
or first week in February. By Feb 18th/19th New moons begin edging
closer to Earth, and apogeeal Full moons are increasingly further from
Earth, both combinations bringing the chance of snowfalls, over night
during New moon and in daytime during Full moon. The last week of Feb
brings a chance of morning snowfalls to some southern areas after 24th.
March will be a wet and miserable month and the second half of March and
especially the last week may see late snows, especially 19th/20th,
reaching to southern districts.
The first week of April is cold and snowprone, especially around Full
moon on 3rd, while the second week of April may be dry and cool, then
with further snows with the third week perigeal New moon occurring about
16th/17th, making this coming spring one of the coolest for many years.
The first half of May may also be cooler and wetter than normal, with
drier conditions in the second half.
The first half of June should be dry, and although warmer weather may
arrive in the first few days, temperatures could cool again by the 4th.
Mid June brings last rogue snows or hailstorms of the season for
elevated and northern districts, and the expected upward change to
summer temperatures may be felt about June 21st.
Drier periods in 2007 may be Jan 9-16, Feb 11-16, 18-21, Apr 6-13, May
13-22, May 26-June 14, June 22-July 8, July 15-17, July 22-Aug 6, Aug
14-21, Aug 31-Sept 5, Sept 8-19, Oct 5-16, Nov 23-Dec 22.
The whole summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as it has been in
recent years. And after that, 2008 may begin with a very mild winter
and, mid year, a very mild summer. UK is heading for less cold winters
and milder summers, with the seasons becoming more even. It has nothing
whatever to do with the hysteria called global warming - in the southern
hemisphere we are going the other way and heading towards long hot
summers and colder winters, and yet we inhabit the same planet.
The real reason for the seasons change is the Grand Cycle of the Seasons
grinding its slow way forward. There is a reversal about every 4.5 years
and depending on the vagaries of a geographical area a turnaround every
18-20 years. The larger cycle is 36-38 years, could be called the solar
system barycentre reversal, in which sun, moon and planetary cycles
coincide. The whole cycle clicks over on a beat of 10x 18.613 years. So
just as 1974 was exceptionally mild, so 2009/10 will be about the middle
point of these milder winter years, and 2013 will see the return of much
wetter and colder winters, on a par with those in the years 1977- 1979
and 1997. Those years were the last previous very cold winter seasons.
Before those years the coldest were 1945 and 1961-3. Other notably cold
years have been 1814 and 1740, all complying to a cyclic pattern. So, in
many ways one could say this winter will be somewhat on a par with
1933/34, 1963/64, 1966/67, 1970/71, 1975/76, 1980/81, 1990/91.
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Dublin
First snows for Dublin could be around the end of Jan. Some areas may
not get any snow until February. March-May will be coolish and some late
season snow or hail falls may persist into May and June.
Snow and colder periods will be at the end of January, February third
week onwards, March no respite from the wintry conditions especially at
the beginning and last part, April in the first and third weeks, May at
the beginning, and June around the middle.
Drier periods may be Jan 9-16, Feb the first week and 11-16, March the
beginning of the second week, Apr 10th and 11th and the last three days,
May the first three days and the 17th-23rd, June 2nd-12th, July all
except the second week, Aug only some days in the first week, Sept from
19th-23rd, Oct 9th-15th, Nov not at all, and December apart from 5th and
6th all from 1st-20th.
February
The first week will be clear patches and odd showers, and even some
winter sunshine. From 7th-9th the weather turns colder, in the form of
frosts and fog. Expect rain on the 10th and 11th, maybe hail and some
snow, continuing but with fine patches between 12th-16th. Then from
17th-24th it should feel more like winter has finally come, with subzero
temperatures, cold winds, hail, fog, mists, snow, and a generally
heavier-feeling atmosphere. The reason will be the New moon on the 18th
and from now on as New moons begin edging closer to Earth, and far-away
Full moons increasingly further from Earth, both combinations bring the
chance of more regular snowfalls, over night during New moon and in
daylight hours during Full moon. The last week of Feb brings a chance of
morning snowfalls that even spreading quite a way to the south.
March
The first week in March may be cold, and on the whole March should be a
wet and miserable month. There may be drier days for Dublin around the
7th and 8th, but in the whole month Dubliners may be lucky to see 7 days
with no rain or snow falling. The 11th-13th should be colder, also the
19th and also the last week. So the second half of March and especially
the last week may see late snows, overnight around the 19th/20th, and
once again this snow should reach to southern districts.
April
The first week of April may be cold and possibly snowprone, particularly
around Full moon on 3rd, while the second week of the month may be drier
and slightly warmer, with further frosts in the third week about
16th/17th, and all this making the coming spring possibly one of the
coolest for many years. However the last few days of April may bring a
few rays of sunshine.
May
The first week of May should be cool, dry for the first three days then
showers arriving, and continuing until about 16th. The second and third
weeks may be windy. From 18th-23rd should be dry. May should be cooler
and wetter than normal, but with drier conditions in much of the second
half of the month.
June
The first half of June should be dry, and safe to take holidays from
about 2nd-12th. Although warmer weather may arrive in the first few
days, temperatures may cool again by the 4th. Just like 1970 and 1975,
mid June may bring rogue hailstorms or even snowfalls, and the expected
upward change to summer temperatures may not be felt properly until
about June 21st..
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2006 Was the Sixth Warmest Year Ever?
GENEVA, Switzerland, January 3, 2007 (ENS) - Globally, the year 2006 is
estimated to be the sixth warmest year since recordkeeping began in
1880, according to records maintained by member governments of the World
Meteorological Organization, WMO. Final figures will not be released
until March 2007. Following established practice, WMO’s global
temperature analyses are based on two different datasets. One is the
combined dataset maintained by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office,
and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK. The other
is maintained by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, NOAA. Both indicate that 2006 is likely to
be the sixth warmest year globally.
The global mean surface temperature in 2006 was 0.42 degrees Celsius
above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14°C or 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit,
the United Nations weather agency said.Since the start of the 20th
century, the global average surface temperature has risen 0.7°C, but
this rise has not been continuous. The steepest rise has occurred since
1976, at 0.18°C (.32°F) per decade. In the northern hemisphere, the 10
year period 1997-2006 averaged 0.53°C above the 1961-1990 mean. And in
the southern hemisphere temperatures averaged 0.27°C above the 1961-1990
mean.
So much for WMO accuracy. They said in November that 2006 was going to
be the hottest in history.
Prof Phil Jones says 2006 was the hottest year since 1659. Given that
thermometers were only invented three hundred years ago and not utilised
properly until 150 years ago this is an odd thing to say. Most of
records make a 0.1º C distinction, even when they were using old glass
thermometers that couldn't measure tenths. It is quite clear now that
daily error bars were bigger than 0.6º or 0.8º C, so it also applies to
those records used since 1860, and of course, to the 0.6º C increase in
150 years.
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Canada not getting hotter
http://members.tripod.com/~MitchellBrown/almanac/provs_warmest.html
It appears that throughout Canada, not one record hot temperature
appears after 1973. Either global warming is not happening anywhere near
Canada, or Canada is on a different globe. Hottest days since records
began are:
Newfoundland 41.7 Aug. 11, 1914 Northwest River
Prince Edward Island 36.7 Aug. 19, 1935 Charlottetown
New Brunswick 39.4 Aug. 18, 1935 Nepisiguit Falls
Nova Scotia 38.3 Aug. 19, 1935 Collegeville
Quebec 40.0 July 6, 1921 Ville Marie
Ontario 42.2 July 20, 1919 Biscotasing
Manitoba 44.4 July 11, 1936 St. Albans
Saskatchewan 45.0 July 5, 1937 Midale
Alberta 43.3 July 21, 1931 Bassano Dam
British Columbia 44.4 July 16, 1941 Lillooet
Yukon 36.1 June 14, 1969 Mayo
Northwest Territories 39.4 July 18, 1941 Fort Smith
Nunavut 33.9 July 22, 1973 Arviat
Meanwhile, 2006 was the warmest year in China since 1951, according to
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4848. Does that mean it was warmer prior
to 1951? 1950-51 AND 2006 were maximum declination years of the moon.
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Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
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Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is now in shops. It has a bright
green cover featuring Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' wonderful
photo of the Lindis Pass . The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia
Almanac is published by Random House Australia and is available in all
Australian bookshops. It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in
nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and released into shops
about a month ago is about natural cycles which account for the major
shifts in climate. The book is an attempt to furnish the reader with
tools for weather prediction, both short and long term. The main cycles
of the moon are described and starting hints for anyone wanting to
predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as how the moon
causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the air is as
much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of different
cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected system
that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather role.
The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ at $34. ISBN
1-86941-852-2. Both the Predict Weather Almanac 2007 and The Lunar Code
are slightly cheaper at The Warehouse.
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CONTACT
Editor: ph 09-817-7625, mobile 021 970-696 e-mail
enqui-@predictweather.com Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland
7, New Zealand. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for
actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information
printed. This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may
be freely distributed to interested parties provided that the source is
acknowledged; except not for purposes of commercial gain unless
authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) PWL 2007
http://www.predictweather.com
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