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WEATHER EZINE March 15, 2007
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Ken Ring
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Mar 15, 2007 18:41 PST
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE March 15, 2007
CURRENT MOON
THE GREAT GLOBAL WARMING SWINDLE
COLDEST SUMMER IN 14 YEARS
THERE IS NO GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
CLOSER PERIGEE YEARS
MARCH, NZ AND AUSTRALIA
UK WINTER
WEATHER IN DUBLIN
CLIMATE CHANGE NOTES
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Current Moon
4rh: full moon
5th: crossing equator
7th: apogee(moon furthest away for month)
12th: last quarter
13th: southern declination
19th: new moon, crossing equator
20th: perigee(4th closest for year)
The full moon of the 4th spawned tropical cyclonic activity in the Coral
Sea, which has been making its way south dragged by a descending moon.
The stormy weather has come through the islands of the Pacific, curring
a swathe. As the moon reached the southernmost point early this week
very cold air sent north has caused massive condensation. But the golden
days of summer are not yet over, despite what other forecasters have
predicted in reaction to this sudden temperature change. This recent
cold snap has been due to the moon on Tuesday being in not only its
southernmost position for the month, but the furthest south it gets all
year. The previous southern point was on 13 February, when another very
cold snap occurred bringing wintry temperatures to the far south and
Gore reached 11C. The next southernmost point will be 9 April. The
moon's latitudinal position always brings barometric changes, something
modern meteorology may have overlooked.
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Coming for NZ
Summer is not over. Persistently good rain is not expected until mid
May. Temperatures will rise again as the moon moves north, reaching N
dec on 25th. From now til the 21st should see relatively dry conditions
returning to both islands. April 10th-17th should also be dry.However
there should be more colder days during this coming winter, but not
necessarily colder temperatures. Think of it as more firewood needed.
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The Great Global Warming Swindle
A documentary was shown on Channel4 in the UK last week called "The
Great Global Warming Swindle". It is very good and well worth a look. A
reasonable amount of what was in it we already know, but there are some
very interesting blanks filled in. There are references to the Rev.
Gore's movie, especially the section where he deals with ice core
samples, and co-relations between CO2 and temperature shifts. Gore said
it was complicated. The real science totally disproves almost everything
he claims. This doco shows the viewer graphically the lag of CO2 always
BEHIND the temperature rise or fall. It is about an hour and quarter
long, but the sad part is that we probably will not get the chance to
see it on free TV in politically-correct NZ. We are so constantly
bombarded with the one-sided silliness about so-called climate change
that the skeptical side is seldom heard. It is most mature that the BBC
has shown the programme, a measure of a tolerant and grown-up society.
The doco is viewable in its entirety on at least one of these links:
http://tinyurl.com/2wpjse
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6331556994197648222&q=global+war
ming+swindle?
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9005566792811497638&q=Global%20W
arming%20Swindle&hl=en
http://www.nzcpd.com
We should all watch it before it is "pulled" from the Net by the
networks. I watched online because I couldn't download it. Some
important points emerge. The next time someone says the polar bears are
drowning, just tell them that during the Holocene Maximum the bears
survived for hundreds of years. The very Greenpeace co-founder Patrick
Moore himself comes out and says global warming is all a vehicle for
Neo-Marxism and the environmental movement is “anti-human”. Nigel Calder
says the fundamental principles of journalism have been abandoned. The
film shows that it was Maggie Thatcher who started the political ball
rolling paying for GW information in order to support her nuclear energy
program. To do that she had to close the coal industry and satanise CO2
emissions. One point was that solar/sunspot activity causes and precedes
increase in temperature by up to 800 years. The other point was the
proof that CO2 and temperature are not at all linked and climate changes
in the past have had nothing to do with CO2, manmade or otherwise, so
it's hard to see why it should be responsible for climate changes now.
It is fine to want to look after the planet, and fine to live a clean
unpolluted life and to want the world to do likewise. But it is not fine
to deny underdeveloped countries the right to electricity, to keep them
poor so they can be controlled from Washington. It is not fine to censor
scientific debate and at government levels want to penalise those you
disagree with or don't like. It is not fine to quell truth in order to
make millions. And it is not fine to scare the kids.
Again the links are:
http://tinyurl.com/2wpjse
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6331556994197648222&q=global+war
ming+swindle?
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9005566792811497638&q=Global%20W
arming%20Swindle&hl=en
http://www.nzcpd.com
Please feel free to pass it on to others with an interest in this area.
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Coming generations will look back on the current Global Warming scare
as we do on ancient fears of witches, goblins and demons.
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The Scotsman
Fri 23 Feb 2007
ALAN JONES
http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=289422007&format=print
Children losing sleep over global warming
HALF of children between the ages of seven and 11 are anxious about the
effects of global warming and often lose sleep over it, according to a
new report.
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Coldest summer in 14 years
Summer was the coldest in 14 years. The average mean summer temperature
was 15.7C, 0.9C below normal - the lowest for summer since 1992/93. NIWA
says summer temperatures were as much as 1.5C below average in eastern
areas from coastal Wairarapa to North Canterbury, as well as parts of
King Country and Wellington. The overall summer climate pattern was more
anticyclones in the south Tasman Sea and more frequent cool southerly
winds over the whole of New Zealand. At the same time, seas around New
Zealand were about 1C below normal.
What did Metservice say earlier in the season??
"Weather forecasters have warned that this summer could be the hottest
in almost a decade, raising the danger of bush fires. Met Service
spokesman Bob McDavitt said December and January were likely to be
bathed in sunshine and hotter than average. It could be as hot as 1998."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10409231
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Welcome to Scotland 2080: land of dengue fever and Vin d'Ecosse
MIKE WADE
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=341682007
There isn't a cloud in the sky, the thermometer's soaring and the
vineyards are thriving. Unfortunately, the skiing industry is long
extinct, golf courses are shut through water shortages and mosquitoes
are spreading dengue fever. By 2080 there will be a rise in annual
temperatures of up to 3.5C in summer and 2.5C in winter, with a 40%
reduction in rainfall in the south and east. Snow-free winters will be
normal in many areas but Scotland will suffer increasingly frequent
freak downpours. Most disturbing of all are the predictions about the
climate change's impact on health in Scotland. The Executive predicts
that outbreaks of potentially fatal mosquito-borne diseases such as
dengue fever and West Nile virus could become "a regular feature" in
this country. There will be widespread infestations by fleas, wasps,
mice and rats, all of which are likely to thrive in a Scotland of mild
winters and hot summers.
"We will need to take action," warns the Executive report. It says we
should prepare for the arrival of termites in Scotland, which are
already marching northwards through France. Other non-native animals
pose a threat, according to the report. In the past, whenever exotic
insects and beetles have been accidently imported they have tended to
die off in our cool climate. In 2080, the Executive claims: "Scorpions
and poisonous spiders might become a feature of life in a hotter UK."
Comment: 2080 is a safe figure. No one alive today will be around then,
let alone remember this wacky prediction.
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Melting ice shelves reveal secret life
RAYMOND HAINEY Mon 26 Feb 2007
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=52&id=301192007&format=print
Remarkable images of newly discovered marine creatures have been
released by scientists who found a unique ecosystem after the collapse
of ice shelves, which had covered the Antarctic ocean bed for thousands
of years. Secrets unlocked by the disintegration of the two shelves on
the edge of the polar ice cap include a giant prawn and a 12-legged
starfish. They were among 1,000 species collected by the international
team of researchers from the US-based Census of Marine Life (CoML). CoML
scientist Dr Ron O'Dor said the team on the polar research ship
Polarstern had discovered a previously unimagined ecosystem living under
the ice and had also been able to observe the colonisation of the opened
up area by creatures moving in from deeper water beyond what had been
the edge of the ice shelf. Scientists have discovered colonies of deep
sea lilies, sea cucumbers and sea urchins, normally found in much deeper
water.
Comment: so if life can survive under any temperature, even extreme
cold, then perhaps a warmer world will not wipe out thouisands of
species. Whilst highlighting the odd starving polar bear Al Gore's film
made no mention of the thriving forms of life that exist under ice in
polar regions.
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Global Warming in Space
http://www.russiablog.org/2007/03/russian_astronomer_points_to_g.php
It seems Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy
temperatures. In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey
missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south
pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row. Habibullo
Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical
Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current
global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.
"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and
Mars," he said.
Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account
for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets. Mars and
Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their
histories.
Other related stories:
MARS MAY BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF CLIMATE CHANGE
http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/odyssey/newsroom/pressreleases/20031208a.html>h
ttp://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/odyssey/newsroom/pressreleases/20031208a.html
MIT RESEARCHER FINDS EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING ON NEPTUNE'S LARGEST
MOON
24 June 1998
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html>http://web.mit.edu/newsof
fice/1998/triton.html
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON JUPITER;
Nature 428, 828-831 (22 April 2004) doi:10.1038/nature
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v428/n6985/abs/nature02470.html
PLUTO THOUGHT TO BE WARMING UP
ABC News, 26 July 2006
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1697309.htm>http://www.abc.
net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1697309.htm
Just be very careful when one offers to sell or purchase carbon offsets
for...Uranus.
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Less and less people
The human population of Earth reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in
1927, 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974 and 5 billion in late 1986.
Last year on October 12th 1999, the human population of Earth reached 6
billion. In my lifetime the population has doubled from 3 billion in
1959 to the 7 billion today. This doubling of population which occured
over the last 40 years will never come close to happening again. The
exponential growth of human population peaked in 1987. That year 87.01
million more people were added to the Earth. Since 1987, the population
has declined on average by 2.1 million less people added per year. In
2000 the population increased by 60.1 million people. If we maintain
this 13 year average of 2.1 million less people added per year, we will
peak in population reaching zero population growth in 2029 with 6.90
billion people. The decline of human population has been even more
dramatic over the last 6 years. Why are rates declining? Mortality is
less, families are still moving to cities, children are not needed as
they once were to help with the family income. Women are becoming
educated, delaying marriage. Because the world's population is going
down the emissions problem will solve itself. So who needs Kyoto,
forestry sinks and carbon taxes?
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There is NO global temperature
Global warmers claim that the globe is warming. This implies some global
temperature rounded figure that can be compared to a previous one.
Temperature itself is not well understood. For example, which comes
first, colder air falling or warmer air rising? Is one a stronger force,
the real force or is one defined in relation to or in lack of, the
other? Temperatures have no intrinsic meaning but are established by
context. Air temperature used in climate measurement is derived using
instrument-proxies such as length, volume, electrical conductance etc or
natural proxies such as tree ring widths and wood density, ice core
layer isotope rations etc. It is never measured using a thernodynamic
definition. Any sensation of heating or warming is not a consequence of
temperature but depends on the thermodynamic forces set up by the
intensities in our bodies and our surroundings. That is why two people
can disagree on whether a room is cold or hot. So, equally then, can
two countries, because the internal criteria differ and one country's
temperature is not defined in terms of the temperature of the other, but
by its own sampling and sampling standards. Several countries,
especially in different seasons, cannot sensibly compare anything to do
with temperatures.
Averages are not temperatures and cannot be global either. You can liken
it to a country's exchange rate which is peculiar to the country's
monetary patterns and history. You may compare an exchange rate to
another but there is no global exchange rate, and any exercise in
calculation about exchange rate always serves the peculiarities of a
transaction in just one country. A global exchange rate would mean
nothing to everyone. Averages have nothing to do with physics. They are
symbol numbers to represent many others in a list. They suggest a
summing process leading to agreed normalisation and a departure from an
arbitrarily decided line, this line set by the whole list. But sums are
not always meaningful over all variables and the flaw in taking averages
is that many averages are possible within just one set of any data, and
whilst there may be a fictitious temperature average, there is no
average temperature. For example in a named room the average height,
weight and perhaps net income of males may be 1.5m, 100kg and $50,000
per yr. But there may be, in the list of subjects the averages were
derived from, no actual individual who is in real life all of the
three. Also, all three variables may fluctuate over the course of any
day or year, making the assessment even more meaningless. Temperature is
about a trend and a gradient, not a fixed statement about unvarying
thermodynamic energy. A room may be warming and cooling simultaneously,
because the air nearest the window may be cooling in convective response
to a changing outside temperature, whilst in the same room the air
closest to a heat source like a stove or person may be warming, in the
same way as an iced drink and a hot coffee on the same table will not
for long retain their original temperature values. Whilst the individual
temperature dynamics are still adjusting to each other, there is no way
to express the room as a single temperature number. And constant
readjustment is what temperature measures, the changes being within the
hour, when the sun appears or sets, between day and night and seasons.
The operator has a bias too, because younger people usually have better
resistance to cold, also people of all ages and genders who are carrying
more body weight. Taking time, operator and geographic biases(proximity
to coast or inland, elevation and latitude) into account doesn't leave
much left as raw reliable data. Whether the Earth is warmer or cooler
than it was one hundred years ago, or whether one century is hotter than
another century is problematic. Observations of temperatures on Earth
can only be made at specific locations and at specific times. None
reliably exist before human settlement in an area.
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Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If
we take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a
year we have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the average
perigee distance for the year. Looking at a series of these we note that
about every 4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer,
called a cp year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to an
8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for
about 3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator,
then further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years
before beginning the return journey. Closer perigee years occur when the
moon is passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth
bulges into space more at the equator and so is going to be generally
slightly closer to the moon. When perigee is about the equator between
changing hemispheres (e.g.2005-2007) it causes more
cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons to form. The northern hemisphere can expect
a big hurricane event in late October. By 2008, perigee will have
shifted to the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point
between July 2008-December 2008. This year may be the last for seriously
destructive events until 2011, 2015 and 2020.
February’s perigee (8th closest) coincides with New moon 18th-19th. As
perigees work their way closer to earth the Moon’s destructive power
will be unleashed at these times, but because perigee occurs around the
equatorial latitudes in 2007 most damage will be to Aus’s northern half.
March’s perigee (on 20th) at #4 closest will pack an equinoctial punch
bringing freak weather.
April’s perigee (on 17th) will be #3 closest for the year and should
bring strong winds about the beginning of the fourth week.
May’s perigee (16th ) is #5 should cause temperatures to plunge over
the following week.
June 13th is P#9 and the days following will serve the worst weather for
the month.
July 10th P#12 affecting about the beginning of the third week.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some places but leave
others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect following
days.
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NZ
MARCH
March rain may be less than the norm in the NI but average in the SI.
The least rain for the NI may be 15th-19th, and for the SI least rain
may be 6th-9th and 13th-19th. In the NI: Coromandel, Taumarunui, Taupo
and parts of the lower NI may be wetter but rain for the rest may be
average or less. In the SI: Bruce Bay, Lake Pukaki and areas south of Te
Anau may be wetter, with the rest of the SI average or drier. Sunshine
hours: average for NI but more than average for SI. Most sunshine:
Gisborne and Blenheim, least sun, Taumaranui and Balclutha. Most of NI
may be average to warmer. The SI should also have above average temps
apart from cooler Timaru and Oamaru. The warmest areas may be Gisborne
to New Plymouth, Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury. Best fishing
should be in the first and third weeks. In both islands, most winds
should be from the W and SW in the last week. Fishing bite times are
best around 3rd-5th, 11th-13th, 18th-20th and 25th-27th. 1st-6th:
1st – 2nd : Anticyclonic.
3rd-7th: A depression E of Lord Howe Island moves SE preceded by warm,
moist NE’s. Strong W on the northern side of this depression may
affect central NZ then cross S of SI on 6th, followed by a light SW
airstream ahead of an anticyclone in the Tasman.
8th-11th: Light E’s predominate over north of NI while an anticyclone
covers the rest of NZ until 10th. A weak trough moves later onto SI.
12th-17th: A light E to SE flow affects the area N of NZ. Anticyclonic
conditions predominate until 18th
18th-22nd: Westerlies which affect SI on 18th are followed by light
southerlies as a weak trough moves E. NW’s freshen over SI about 21st
followed by another southerly change as anticyclone extends ridge over
the far south. Pressures high over NI.
23rd-25th: High pressure persists over NI. A moist northerly airstream
ahead of a small depression moves over Canterbury by 24th, followed by a
brief moist S conditions.
26th-31st: A disturbed W airstream spreads onto NZ on 26th, followed
by cooler SWs from 27th as deep depressions pass to the far S.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st, 4th-7th, 12th-13th, 19th-20th, 25th-27th,
31st (heavier 5th, 7th, 14th, 26th )
Western, Central North Is: 1st-2nd, 4th-5th, 7th, 11th-14th, 19th-28th,
31st (heavier 11th, 14th, 26th)
Taupo: 5th-7th, 12th-14th, 20th-21st, 25th-27th, 31st (heavier 26th)
Gisborne, HB: 11th, 19th-20th, 25th-27th, 31st (heavier 26th)
Lower North Is: 4th-5th, 9th-11th, 13th, 21st-28th, 31st (heavier 13th,
23rd-26th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 4th-5th, 10th-11th, 21st-25th, 31st (heavier
4th, 5th, 11th)
Canterbury: 4th-6th, 10th-11th, 21st-25th, 28th, 31st (heavier 10th,
22nd, 31st)
Otago: 3rd-6th, 10th-12th, 14th, 18th-19th, 21st-26th, 31st (heavier
1st, 5th, 22nd)
Southland and Dunedin: 2nd-6th, 10th-12th, 20th- 31st (heavier 5th,
10th, 22nd-27th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 4th-6th, 10th-12th, 21st-31st (heavier 4th-
5th, 21st-27th)
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APRIL
Best bite times may be around 2nd-4th, 10th-12th, 16th-18th and
23rd-25th.
1st-5th: Anticyclonic by 2nd. A N to NW airstream moves onto NZ by 3rd
followed by disturbed westerlies about 5th.
7th-11th: The anticyclone moves eastward followed by NW’s ahead of a
trough on 9th. The trough weakens as it crosses the country followed by
light SW’s ahead of an anticyclone.
12th-18th: A ridge extends across NZ. Light SE’s affect northern
regions of NI while light SW’s predominate over SI. The anticyclone
moves onto SI by 16th and remains over NZ until 19th.
19th-26th: Westerlies affect SI on 19th, followed by cool S to SWs
which spread over NZ by 20th. A small depression develops in the far SW
and moves NE by 22nd. A moist S airstream brings rain to Canterbury and
Otago and possible storm force winds to Cook Strait. This system moves
E as an anticyclone lays over NZ until 27th.
27th-30th: A ridge of high pressure persists over N of NI on 27th, but
a moist N airstream ahead of a trough affects the rest. This is
followed by disturbed Ws until the end of the month. In both islands,
most winds should be from the W and SW in the last week. Towards the end
of the third week the West Coast of the South Island may enter an
extended dry period.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 4th-5th, 7th-9th, 17th-21st, 26th-30th, (heavier
29th)
Western, Central North Is: 1st-4th, 8th-9th, 18th-22nd, 26th-30th,
(heavier 4th, 27th)
Taupo: 8th-9th, 20th-22nd, 27th-30th, (heavier 9th)
Gisborne, HB: 1st, 9th-11th, 21st-22nd, (heavier 22nd)
Lower North Is: 2nd-4th, 7th-10th, 18th-22nd, 26th-31st (heavier 3rd,
9th, 27th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 1st-3rd, 8th-9th, 21st, 26th-30th (heavier 9th,
21st, 26th)
Canterbury: 2nd-3rd, 8th-9th, 21st-22nd, 26th (heavier 9th, 21st)
Otago: 2nd-5th, 8th-9th, 18th-22nd, 26th, 29th (heavier 8th, 21st, 29th)
Southland and Dunedin: 2nd-5th, 8th-12th, 18th-21st, 26th, 29th-30th
(heavier 3rd, 8th, 29th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 2nd-5th, 8th-9th, 17th-22nd, 26th-30th
(heavier 3rd, 8th, 21st, 26th, 28th)
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AUSTRALIA
Q: What is the long range weather forecast for Victoria, especially
areas like Swan Hill, Shepparton, Bendigo and Ballarat?
A: For this year for Ballarat and Melbourne region, an average or drier
year, then a WETTER than average year south of Melbourne and in the east
of the State, and also up around Bendigo and Shepparton. South Rivernia
may be average-to-wetter. In the west e.g.Horsham may be about average,
although Coleraine may be drier.
VICTORIA
2007: wetter year,
autumn: wet, cloudy, not cold
winter: cloudy
spring: not too warm, unusually cool,
summer: sunny,
2008: a drier and warm year with high Ts, no cool parts, but won't be
dry enough to be called a drought year
autumn: warm,
winter: cool maximums
spring: dry, cool parts
summer: cloudy, some record high Ts, windy
2009: an average rainfall year, dry sunny. Not a year with anything
unusual going on, a sort of in-between year, average rain and average
temperatures,
autumn: dry, sunny, not hot Ts,
winter: wet, warm, no extra cold times
spring: sunniest,
summer: driest,
2010: an unusually wet and windy year with an extra cold winter
autumn: windy
winter: dry, sunny, extra cold, windy
spring: cloudy, wet windy
summer: wet, not cool, calm
2011: another wetter than average year, cloudy, notable for being very
calm not hot, cooler than av,
autumn: unseasonably cool, calm
winter: calm
spring: calm
summer: cold, no hot parts
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NZ Winter is coming
Snow
For Wanaka temperatures should drop markedly about the 2 June, but this
may deliver more sleet than snow. The first signs of snow flurries may
arrive in the second week of June, and a good snowfall around the 18th.
Thereafter good falls may come about the last week of June and first
week of July, and from July 15th-21st. August 12th-18th sees a good
period of sustained snowfall but may be dry from then till Sept 25th.
Colder temperatures over the whole season should sustain snow between
falls. Plenty of clear days will ensure tourists flock to the
snowfields. A bumper season is likely, without transport problems
experienced last year because of mainly one big snow event. Colder
winters are going to be the rule for a few years, because weather is
cyclic and tied to the combination of phases of the moon and the moon's
changing distance from Earth. As Treble Cone needs westerly or
northwesterly winds, a shortlived norwester around June 3rd may bring
snow and after the 18th NWs and Ws may be in regular supply. July
14th-24th brings the next batch, and August 14th-22nd, as well as the
last days in August. September has about 15 days of W or NW winds,
October has W or NWs from the second week onward, and in throughout
November W or NWs may predominate. December's winds may begin with E and
SEs and later turn more westerly. So a slightly longer winter ski season
than last year, with first significant snow for the whole country
arriving in the second week of June. South Canterbury may have falls up
to the end of November. Mt Ruapehu will snow from June to October, but
between June and mid August access roads may see frequent closures. The
trend in the next few years is towards longer winters and extended
summers. The peak of the colder winter seasons should be around 2011-13.
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MOON IN MARCH
4th: Full Moon
5th: Crossing Equator
7th: Apogee
12th: Last Quarter
13th: Southern Declination
19th: New Moon
19th: Crossing Equator
20th: Perigee #4
25th: Northern Declination
26th: 1st Quarter
MOON IN APRIL
1st: Crossing Equator
3rd: Full Moon
3rd: Apogee
9th: Southern Declination
11th: Last Quarter
16th: Crossing Equator
17th: New Moon
17th: Perigee #3
22nd: Northern Declination
24th: 1st Quarter
29th: Crossing Equator
30th: Apogee
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Tropical cyclones and rain coming to NZ
About 5 lots of cyclonic weather, either from TCs or subtropical lows
are expected between December 2006 and May 2007. Effects are likely mid
January, after mid February, in second week of March and the third week
in April. In January we did receive bad weather from the subtropical
low, and the next was expected about 8th-13th. In Feb most of the rain
for both islands was expected to come in the first half of the month.
The weather was predicted to get better after the 17th. (Update: all
these have happened exactly on cue - just look up past ezines- and the
destructive weather we have just had was indeed in the second week of
March)
Wellington may be affected by storms in the fourth week of April. The
worst of SI weather may be about mid June. October should be a bad rain
month for the NI, and the top and west of the SI. November may bring
widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe December weather just
before New Years Eve should close the year with some drama.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AUSTRALIA REGIONS
Sydney notes (2UE interview)
March
The dry continues until rain on the E coast about March 4th, then
9th-11th and even the dry NW may get rain, then on the 13th or 14th it's
back on the E coast and all gone again by 15th. By 17th March the W half
of the State will get a dosing and that will move to the central State
by 18th March and by the 20th March the whole E half of the State should
be under rain clouds but it may be shortlived because it'll be quite
gusty and wind tends to blow rain away. If the wind drops there could be
odd good days of rain in that last ten days of March.
April
3rd April - rain on N coast, 4th-on S border, but in E it's all going to
stay pretty dry until about 6th or 7th of April and then rain widespread
for the E especially the NE. Then more around midmonth on E coast, on
the W side of the State around 17th-18th. Finally some in the S of NSW
about 20th and 27th
May
Rain in E NSW in the first week, then around the 12th-13th and then the
20th onwards. The last few days of May should see the heavens open. And
that lot will all be over by the 1st of June
June
The next rain will be in the central N on 7th-9th June and the middle of
the month will see rain to many districts in all central and E areas.
The 19th of June brings more for the W half of the State, crossing to
the E half by the 20th and to the S half by the 21st. and then petering
out everywhere. So for the first half of the year, no shortage of rain.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Townsville
Interview with Nathalie Fernbach Radio MIX 106.3, 15 March 2007
1. How is it possible to predict the weather using the moon (how does it
work - just in layman's terms) ?
The Moon creates weather because of its gravitational pull on the air.
The theory is that the air has a tide, just like the sea and just as a
sea tide is measurable and predictable way in advance, so too with the
air-tide. The airtide creates the weather because thge air is like a big
hunk of insulation keeping away two things; the heat of the sun and the
cold of space, both of which would like to rush to the ground but the
thick air-layer stops both of them. Imagine if the height of the air was
everchanging, just like the level of the ocean, then at different times
of day/night the heat or the cold could come down here, in more or less
amounts. As the moon goes overhead from one horizon to the other it does
change the height of the air by up to 25% which changes the temperature,
which in turn affects cloud formation and condensation and the
generating of winds. For instance around a full moon the moon is out of
the sky until evening so the daytime air height is lower, so the heat of
the sun comes closer to the ground with less air height to stop it.
That's why a summer full moon day is a really hot one and that causes
extreme weather events. That's when TCs form, just like on the last FM
which was on the 4th. The 2nd saw the lowest barometric reading so far
this month. In Feb the FM was on the 2nd. Look at all the rain -300mm-
in the first 3 days of Feb. In Jan the FM was on the 4th. You got the
highest wind speed that day, 35kph. That's because on the 3rd the moon
was in what they call apogee which is when the moon is closer to earth
or most distant, that's when this air tide effect gets exaggerated.
Of course no technology has been put into this, because the metservices
refuse to consider that the moon has any influence on weather, so for
this type of longrange forecasting we have to use older and more
traditional methods. We look at moon cycles and match present weather to
historic weather that happened on same moon cycle times in the past. To
do this we access historical data. In the past, ancient villagers kept
their own records by planting sticks and marker stones around stone
circles like Stonehenge. These stone rings were all aligned to the moon
and were really giant laptops.
**************************
2. How accurate are your predictions ? (did you have any inkling of
Cyclone Larry?)
Well let's look back. For Jan, I said heavy heavy around 24th Townsville
actually got 100mm on 22nd) I had the hottest day down to be on 17th,
actually it was the hottest day on 14th, close enough. I had 235mm for
Jan, you got 280mm.
For Feb, I said, a lot of rain would come around the middle of the
month, 13th-19th, cyclonic about 15th and possible floods 15th-20th.
Well, you got 25mm on 15th. BUT totally unpredictable things happen
around a FM and that is always an error factor which I warn
about,-always expect extreme weather around summer FMs. Cyclone Larry
was one of those, and if you look back at all the big summer cyclones,
you'll find most occur either on or near Full or New moons. As to
accuracy most give me about 85%. Longrange forecasting is more about
trends than day to day, which the BoM is better at. When you go to the
doctor and he says take these for your problem - it may clear up today
or in a couple of days time. Well, I'm the same. It may clear up today
or in a couple of days time. If it's good enough for a visit to your
doctor why should I be any different?.
**************************
3. Why do you do it ?
Well, why not? Someone has to! I want to provide something useful and I
want to spread knowledge about the moon's role in weather, which is
something of a gaping hole in meterology. If forecasters can't predict
weather for a week ahead then they certainly don't know what extreme
weather will be happening in 50 years time, so global warming centuries
ahead is just rubbish. I want farmers to start doing this themselves, to
look at the cycles that are operating, and you won't hear that word
cycles used much by the scaremongers, and I want them to stop scaring
the kids. There's no such thing as climate change. Climate means weather
at a latitude, anyone can look the word climate up in the dictionary.
Well, latitudes don't change. For instance Cairns is almost the same
latitude as Broome. They both get the same average temperatures, annual
maximums around 30-31 and minimums around 20. Go down the bottom and
Perth right in the west is pretty much the same latitude as Broken Hill
in the middle and Taree on the E coast and all three get about 24 for
their average maximum and 12 for the average min. Bourke in QLD is the
same as Dalwallinu in WA. So I do it because they are discoveries I've
made and it's nice to share it.
**************************
4. Here in Townsville we are having a late hot Summer (which nobody
seems to have predicted), so what's on the cards for Townsville for the
rest of 2007?
Immediately coming up, for March, I'd say more rain around the 17th and
26th, and it should be quite wet from 30th-Apr 3rd. From now till June
there'll be a lot of rain, but June and July will only have about 5 or 6
rain days each, so there'll be some big downpours
Aug to Oct, little or no rain at all
November, about half the average rain amount for that month
and Dec, again wetter than average, most coming in first and last weeks,
and some gales and stormy weather in the last few days of the year all
over the NE of the State.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------
FROM LAST EZINE (but still topical)
Radio 2UE Sydney, hosts George and Paul, SAT 27 Jan 2007 09:15
1. Ken, the Bureau of Meteorology has suggested that it would be
premature to call the end of the El Nino climate cycle. Do you agree?
Well I look at cycles and yes, this El Nino is on the way out. You can’t
say it’ll be gone by lunchtime on Tuesday but you can say this year
there’ll be plenty of rain, March and April for Northern Territories,
April to June for a lot of NSW, QSLD and VIC, June for W and SA, and TAS
is already getting a lot(Hobart had nearly 70mm on Monday).. El Nino
comes every 9 years, and the last one was 1997. So this particular cycle
is over and I think we’re moving on.
2. El Ninos, according to the Bureau, tend to end in autumn rather than
in summer – what do you make of that? Do you agree?
They talk about El Nino when it’s dry, not the other way around, so the
dryness comes first and then the talk. So of course when autumn comes
the summer is over, things cool down, rain comes, farms are no longer as
dry, and El Nino means nothing to anyone. Then they noticed that an El
Nino bringing hot air correlated with sea temperature changes, because
the sun heats from above. So now they’ve got a new slant on it, it’s oh
the oceans are cooling, El Nino must be over.
3. Some areas in South Australia received more rain over the last
weekend than they did for all of last year – what do you make of that?
That just shows you two things, firstly that that the drought is moving
away. Secondly it shows that the moon cycles are operating nicely. For
instance, Adelaide got 30mm last weekend, so did Mt Gambier and Whyalla
got a good dumping. Now if you look back 19 years and a certain number
of days which is the moon cycle you'll find that Whaylla got a
spectacular dump of 40mm on that day. You go back another lot of around
19 years to 1979 and the records say 40mm fell again. Same again in
1960, and in 1941. So all this can actually be predicted.
4. But, one thing to bear in mind, is that many parts of the country,
including the cropping areas of QLD, NSW and Eastern Victoria haven’t
received any rain – so there’s no rejoining there at the moment. Are
they likely to receive rain?
I’m expecting good rain in mid February to east VIC and also in the
first and last weeks of March. Then around the 4th, 10th, 20th and end
of April.
QLD can expect more than average in the NE in February, also Rockhampton
and Colouna and Julia Creek. In NSW the rain in February will mainly be
in the N coast area and Richmond Ranges, but also Ivanhoe in the west
and Wollongong.
5. What does the future hold for rainfall in Sydney?
I think the dams will be okay and the State will be wetter than average
for the year overall, but Sydney itself can expect a drier than average
year with no really heavy rain until the third week of March.
Coming up immediately I think Sydney may get more rain around the end of
this month and next month about the 6th, 17th and 20th, then a long fine
spell from 20 Feb till the 3rd or 4th of March. Easter will be wet and
the end of April will be foggy, May rain will be average. I think you’ll
get rain through the winter months but overall it won’t break any
records. June, I’ve got down as a month of wind, and again in the last
week of July. Spring could be dryish but mid October may bring gales and
thunderstorms, but probably more noise than actual rain. November and
December will be nice and showery, and in December you may even get
flash flooding in the north from a thunderstorm. So I guess you could
say for the year there’ll be plenty of rain days and a lot of gray skies
but not that much actual rain.
-----------------------------------------
Canberra rain relief
The first half of January may be wet. February should be very dry and
rain may return in the last week of March. For Canberra, 2007 is
expected to be an overall wetter than normal year, with autumn likely to
be wetter than average. Because the moon's perigee sweep-by will be
further away from earth in Dec and Jan, temperatures may not climb as
high. There may be hot spots though, like 19 Jan which may also be over
30C, also as the moon starts to come in closer again early in 2007,
temperatures may climb to 30s for Feb 18-29, March 8-10 and 16-19. On
March 21st the moon will be 4th closest to earth for the year and should
be the last time the temperatures go anywhere near 30 for the summer
season. After that temperatures for Canberra should drop quickly into
autumn mode. Sub-zero minimums should click in around June 24 and end in
mid Oct, with the coldest part of next winter happening in late
July/early August.
--------------------------------------
Perth
1. What would be the best day to play golf on, not too hot, no rain and
little wind, what day of the week should it be? Avoid February. First
half of Feb too hot - possibly in 40s.
2. Summer was late this year, are we likely to have our heat waves in
April next year as well?
No.
3. So, is there any predicted rainfall for next year?
Overall a drier than average year, the wettest half of 2007 should be
the second half, and the wettest months Aug and Oct.
------------------------------------
Townsville notes for 2007
A wetter than average year overall, months wetter than average should be
Apr-July , also December. Sept may be an average rain month, but all the
rest of the months should be drier than average.
By month
Feb, drier than average month, a lot of rain around the middle of the
month, 13th-19th, cyclonic about 15th and possible floods 15th-20th
March, drier than average month, most rain in the second half of the
month, heavier 17th and 26th April, a wetter than average month, with
more rain in first half than the second. May, another wtter than normal
month, more rain falling during the first and last weeks. June wetter
than average, about 6 wet days, so rain will be in big dumps, for
instance about 7th and 17th
July only about 5 wet days but a wetter than average month, so expect
large downpours Aug, little or no rain at all Sept, only 1 or 2 rain
days Oct, little or no rain Nov, about half the average rain amount for
the month Dec, a wetter than average month, most coming in first and
last weeks, and in the NE some gales and stormy weather in the last few
days.
-----------------------------------
ADELAIDE
Interview with Grant Cameron, ABC radio Adelaide, 29 January 2007
GRANT: Can we expect an end to the drought?
Adelaide's rain average is about 550mm. This year overall Adelaide and
the Western Plains may have an drier than average year and I would guess
about 350mm as the bottom figure and maybe more, especially as your
January figure has been a healthy 40mm so far out of an average of 20mm.
Few months may be wetter than average, with March much drier than it
should be. BUT the rest of SA may have a mostly wetter than average
year, that's Spencer Gulf, the SE, and the N and NW. As far as the
drought goes, I think we are passed the year of the peak of it
GRANT: Why should Adelaide get less than the rest of the State?
The reason for this is always impossible to say for sure, but towns to
the north of the State will not have such extreme high temperatures as
they have had in the last year or so, because the maximum declination
(rising/setting angle)of the moon has passed, the latter which brings
temperature extremes every 18.613 years. The way it works is that
declination affects areas furthest north towards the equator and
furthest south towards the poles the most. When the moon changes
hemispheres the barometric pressures change, and the more dramatic lunar
latitude shifts have the biggest effect on the pressures. Pressure
changes translate into temperatures and condensation possibilities.
Pressure gradients and temperature differential in turn create wind
directions, and for watchers on the ground, opportunities to witness
these changes by noting wind shift. wind predictions for the rest of
the first half of the year.
March: W and NW to start the month, E and NE in the second week, then
SEs until around 18th, followed by W and NWs, and back to SW and W for
the last week. From March until September not much wind from the SW may
eventuate, so a good sign for a warmer autumn.
April: Mostly S and SEs interspersed with some W and NWs until last
week, giving way to W and NWs for the rest of the month.
May: Many Es for first half of the month, and after 21st mostly NWs.
June: NWs for the first week changing to SEs until 10th, then NWs until
midmonth and changing back to SEs again until 15th. Ws and NWs then come
again until 20th. The last week may see Ss give way to SEs and the last
two days may see a NW change.
GRANT: We've had some rain, will we get more?
For March(av:26mm), not much rain but gray skies 2nd, 16th, 21st, 24th,
26th, and rain could come around those dates. In April(av:39mm) I expect
odd bits of rain around 4th, 7th, 9th, then much in the second half
between 17th-22nd, and 25th-29th. Easter should be fine all weekend. In
May(av:63mm) there could be 8 rain days, all in second and third weeks.
Over June(av: 83mm), normally the year's wettest month, this time
average rain, the driest period likely to be 11th-18th.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
Weather in year 2020
Channel 7 TV Sydney, Interview 26 Jan 2007
INTERVIWER: there have been economic and political forecasts about what
life will be like in 2020. Tim Flannery and the environmental doomsayers
have projected that global warming will by then have becfdome a global
catastrophe. So our question is, longrange what will the weather for
Australia be like in 2020?
We have to start with the cycles of sun and moon. The first of these is
the sunspot cycle. When you get high sunspot activity, you get good
rainfall -- low sunspot activity, you get drought conditions. We're have
been in a low sunspot period for the past few years, but coming out of
that and rising up to next peak 2011/12. Sunspot activity peaks about
every 9-13 years, or an average of 11 years. The last peak was 2000-02.
So from the standpoint of 2020 in hindsight the last peak will have been
2011/12 and the last sunspot minimum would have been reached about
2016-18 and we have noticed we usually get an El Nino after a minimum.
Therefore El Nino should have kicked in around Sept 2016 and with a hot
spring that year start a new series of drought-years from Dec 2016,
peaking in 2018, which means 2020 is going to be the tail end of it. So
I think it'll be like this year, just starting to come out of a bad
drought time. As far as the orbits of the moon are concerned, full moons
and perigees start to occur over summer months in 2016 which supports
the drought scenario that the sunspot cycle indicates. By 2020 full
moons and perigee combinations start to drift apart, usually an
indication that dry hot summers have passed their peak.
INTERVIWER: Can you describe what 2020 will be like, weatherwise..any
disasters?
In 2020 the year will probably kick off with a wet January. Summer
should arrive a bit late, probably clicking in about the last half of
February. March should bring some hot temperatures in the second week
and this should brew at least one tropical cyclone which could affect
the east coast of QSLD and NSW. April should be the hottest month and
there may be storms and another tropical cyclone in the first week. In
May, it should be dry in first half but wet in the second, and a lot of
places will start to get relief from May onwards as the moon-Earth
distance begins to increase. By June the drought may be considered
broken. July and Aug should be a lot cooler and Sept to Nov will feel
like winter months, with gales and stormy weather arriving around the
middle of these months.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why The Drought Is Nearly Gone
Evidence that the Australian drought is nearly over can be found by
looking at the timing of past droughts, and identifying a pattern. It
will come as no surprise that all drought periods have appeared around
El Nino years, because talk of El Nino usually comes about after the dry
sets in. But it may put a different twist on the matter if El Nino is
identified as a sequential pattern that can be used to extrapolate both
into the distant past for which records are unavailable and into future
years not yet come.
Readers will remember that the signature of an El Nino is warmer water
off the west of South America with heavy rain and floods there and
corresponding cooler water off Australia leading to drought. An El Nino
is the result of changes in the air pressure across the southern Pacific
Ocean, known as the southern oscillation index. It is little known or
recognized amongst meteorologists that changes in air pressure are
brought about monthly by the moon changing hemispheres, and every 18-19
years a maximum north and south latitude is reached in this cycle
bringing peaks to the air pressure change system which results in a
regime cycle in temperatures.
It appears that the weather experts cannot get a proper grip on the El
Nino/ La Nina oscillation because they are too busy looking at ocean
temperatures as measured by buoys. Their belief seems to be that sea
temperatures heat the air and then drive the air pressure in what they
see as a closed system. However it is not a closed system and the air
temperatures and pressures come first. In other words the air above the
sea heats the surface of the sea and not vice versa. The air temperature
is driven by the heat from the sun. The fact that there might be an
identifiable cycle is less attractive today, when it is more fashionable
to be shrugging shoulders and claiming weird unaccountable weather
devoid of pattern is now the rule. Such talk generates more research
funding and opens the way to carbon taxes on gases put artificially into
the air. Then, apparently the climate may be brought back to "normal",
as defined by politicians and economists. It does not take much analysis
of data already in the possession of the climatologists to see the
pattern is evident and it is robust. The drought of 1901-2 was called an
El Nino year, as were the years 1913-14, 1918-20, 1935-36, 1940,
1943-44, 1951, 1965-68, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-95 and 1996 onwards.
These have been the main Australian drought-defined periods of the last
century. Equivalent dry years in the previous century would have been
1807, 1825, 1843, 1888. Unfortunately Sydney data goes back only to
1858, and Sydney received only about half the average rainfall in
1888(583mm) which fits the pattern.
Between 1900 and 2006 a total of 11 identified El Ninos have occurred in
106 years, averaging 9.5 years between each. Droughts occur in the same
place every 9-11 years. This is a combination of the lunar cycle of
9.years and the sunspot cycle of 11 years. These gaps are not exact and
may vary over a shorter term, but over a longer term the average gap
closely adheres to this figure. Let's look at a few gap years between
dry periods. Droughts were during 1963-68 then 1972-73, showing a 9 yr
gap between 1963-1972. The next drought was 1982-83. It is 9 yrs between
1973-1982. Then we had the drought of 1991-95. It is 9 years between
1982-1991. After that we have drought kicking in around 2005. It is 10
years between 1995-2005. 9 years is a multiple of 18 and 36, which are
lunar cycles. From this, we can predict that the next El Nino and
Australian drought period of significance may click in around 2011-12.
Rainfall figures spanning 1938-2005 for Glenprairie, QSLD, have been
sent to me. Low rain years there fit in very well to the El Nino
pattern. They were 1938(504mm), 1944/45(531mm), 1952(461mm),
1957(361mm), 1965/66(336mm), 1972(476mm), 1977, 1982(375mm),
1987(503mm), 1992/93(451mm), 1997(438mm), 2002(345mm), 2006(453mm). The
gap numbers between these years are roughly 6, 7, 5, 8, 7, 5, 5, 5, 5,
5, 5, 5. Droughts are plottable near maximum lunar declinations,
because high maximum temperatures become more extreme with the moon's
more northern latitude. Mostly, the years following lunar maximum
declinations have been wetter than average and we can look to them for
years of rain relief. These years have been have been 1804, 1840, 1858,
1899, 1915, 1933, 1951, 1971, 1989, 2007, and perhaps will be 2026.
Again Glenprairie still shows a clear trend, for example
heavier-than-average rain years were 1951 with 1187(mm), 1971(1340mm),
and 1990(1076mm). So drought-hit farmers can take heart. They may have
passed the worst of it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
UK Winter
March will be a wet and miserable month and the second half of March and
especially the last week may see late snows, especially 19th/20th,
reaching to southern districts.
The first week of April is cold and snowprone, especially around Full
moon on 3rd, while the second week of April may be dry and cool, then
with further snows with the third week perigeal New moon occurring about
16th/17th, making this coming spring one of the coolest for many years.
The first half of May may also be cooler and wetter than normal, with
drier conditions in the second half.
The first half of June should be dry, and although warmer weather may
arrive in the first few days, temperatures could cool again by the 4th.
Mid June brings last rogue snows or hailstorms of the season for
elevated and northern districts, and the expected upward change to
summer temperatures may be felt about June 21st.
Drier periods in 2007 may be Jan 9-16, Feb 11-16, 18-21, Apr 6-13, May
13-22, May 26-June 14, June 22-July 8, July 15-17, July 22-Aug 6, Aug
14-21, Aug 31-Sept 5, Sept 8-19, Oct 5-16, Nov 23-Dec 22.
The whole summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as it has been in
recent years. And after that, 2008 may begin with a very mild winter
and, mid year, a very mild summer. UK is heading for less cold winters
and milder summers, with the seasons becoming more even. It has nothing
whatever to do with the hysteria called global warming - in the southern
hemisphere we are going the other way and heading towards long hot
summers and colder winters, and yet we inhabit the same planet.
The real reason for the seasons change is the Grand Cycle of the Seasons
grinding its slow way forward. There is a reversal about every 4.5 years
and depending on the vagaries of a geographical area a turnaround every
18-20 years. The larger cycle is 36-38 years, could be called the solar
system barycentre reversal, in which sun, moon and planetary cycles
coincide. The whole cycle clicks over on a beat of 10x 18.613 years. So
just as 1974 was exceptionally mild, so 2009/10 will be about the middle
point of these milder winter years, and 2013 will see the return of much
wetter and colder winters, on a par with those in the years 1977- 1979
and 1997. Those years were the last previous very cold winter seasons.
Before those years the coldest were 1945 and 1961-3. Other notably cold
years have been 1814 and 1740, all complying to a cyclic pattern. So, in
many ways one could say this winter will be somewhat on a par with
1933/34, 1963/64, 1966/67, 1970/71, 1975/76, 1980/81, 1990/91.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dublin
March-May will be coolish and some late season snow or hail falls may
persist into May and June. Drier periods may be Jan 9-16, Feb the first
week and 11-16, March the beginning of the second week, Apr 10th and
11th and the last three days, May the first three days and the
17th-23rd, June 2nd-12th, July all except the second week, Aug only
some days in the first week, Sept from 19th-23rd, Oct 9th-15th, Nov not
at all, and December apart from 5th and 6th all from 1st-20th.
March
The first week in March may be cold, and on the whole March should be a
wet and miserable month. There may be drier days for Dublin around the
7th and 8th, but in the whole month Dubliners may be lucky to see 7 days
with no rain or snow falling. The 11th-13th should be colder, also the
19th and also the last week. So the second half of March and especially
the last week may see late snows, overnight around the 19th/20th, and
once again this snow should reach to southern districts.
April
The first week of April may be cold and possibly snowprone, particularly
around Full moon on 3rd, while the second week of the month may be drier
and slightly warmer, with further frosts in the third week about
16th/17th, and all this making the coming spring possibly one of the
coolest for many years. However the last few days of April may bring a
few rays of sunshine.
May
The first week of May should be cool, dry for the first three days then
showers arriving, and continuing until about 16th. The second and third
weeks may be windy. From 18th-23rd should be dry. May should be cooler
and wetter than normal, but with drier conditions in much of the second
half of the month.
June
The first half of June should be dry, and safe to take holidays from
about 2nd-12th. Although warmer weather may arrive in the first few
days, temperatures may cool again by the 4th. Just like 1970 and 1975,
mid June may bring rogue hailstorms or even snowfalls, and the expected
upward change to summer temperatures may not be felt properly until
about June 21st..
For Ireland, spring of 2008 will be very cool, especially wet in the
second week of March, cool and wet in the first week of April and cool
and dry in the second week. The first half of May and June will be cool
and dry.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2006 Was the Sixth Warmest Year Ever?
GENEVA, Switzerland, January 3, 2007 (ENS) - Globally, the year 2006 is
estimated to be the sixth warmest year since recordkeeping began in
1880, according to records maintained by member governments of the World
Meteorological Organization, WMO. Final figures will not be released
until March 2007. Since the start of the 20th century, the global
average surface temperature has risen 0.7°C, but this rise has not been
continuous. The steepest rise has occurred since 1976, at 0.18°C (.32°F)
per decade. In the northern hemisphere, the 10 year period 1997-2006
averaged 0.53°C above the 1961-1990 mean. And in the southern hemisphere
temperatures averaged 0.27°C above the 1961-1990 mean.
Prof Phil Jones says 2006 was the hottest year since 1659. Given that
thermometers were only invented three hundred years ago and not utilised
properly until 150 years ago this is an odd thing to say. Most of
records make a 0.1º C distinction, even when they were using old glass
thermometers that couldn't measure tenths. It is quite clear now that
daily error bars were bigger than 0.6º or 0.8º C, so it also applies to
those records used since 1860, and of course, to the 0.6º C increase in
150 years.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Correspondence
Hello,
Do you have any positive recommendations for public spending on
environmental management and the alleviation of human suffering in light
of increasingly powerful and sustained natural disasters? I am
researching crises preparedness and the position of more conservative
voices is valuable.
Thank you,
Shawn Roske, Ottawa, Canada.
Hello Shawn
1st positive recommendation: Stop all war. All countries defense budget
to go to alleviating poverty, building better hospitals, employing more
teachers, more and less corrupt police and more doctors.
2nd positive recommendation: stop spending dollars on global warming
research. Ask yourself what is worse - having your house bombed and your
children slaughtered or an unusual storm passing through?
Cheers Ken
(no further letter received)
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Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is now in shops. It has a bright
green cover featuring Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' wonderful
photo of the Lindis Pass . The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia
Almanac is published by Random House Australia and is available in all
Australian bookshops. It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in
nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and released into shops
about a month ago is about natural cycles which account for the major
shifts in climate. The book is an attempt to furnish the reader with
tools for weather prediction, both short and long term. The main cycles
of the moon are described and starting hints for anyone wanting to
predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as how the moon
causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the air is as
much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of different
cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected system
that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather role.
The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ at $34. ISBN
1-86941-852-2. Both the Predict Weather Almanac 2007 and The Lunar Code
are slightly cheaper at The Warehouse.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CONTACT
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