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WEATHER EZINE April 29, 2007
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Ken Ring
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Apr 29, 2007 07:53 PDT
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE April 29, 2007
CURRENT MOON
GENERAL
COMING FOR NZ
SOUTHERN HAWKES BAY IN 2008
DECLINATION NOTES
SNOW REPORTS
BIOFUELS
CLOSER PERIGEE YEARS
NZ IN MAY
AUSTRALIA
FROZEN IS MORE NORMAL
UK WINTER
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Current Moon
29th: crossing equator heading south
30th: apogee
2nd: full moon
6th: southern declination
10th: last quarter
13th: crossing equator heading north
16th: perigee, #5th closest
17th: new moon
General
The last full moon of April 4th spawned tropical cyclonic activity in
the Coral Sea, which made its way south dragged by a descending moon.
The stormy weather came through the islands of the Pacific, cutting a
swathe across Fiji and across the North Island of NZ. It missed QLD,
although good rain reached the Sunshine Coast on April 13th and 14th.
During April most States have received enough rain to consider the
drought broken.
In Australia March and April were always going to be the wettest month
of this year for NT. For other States it is QLD and NSW: April and May,
VIC: June, TAS: June and October, WA and SA: June.
The next cyclone is expected to start forming in Australia's NW coast
about now. It should be well developed over the next few days, move west
and then SW, and peter out by about 5 May.
Lately the moon has been in the northern hemisphere, and as usual the N
dec of 22 April brought the rain in good measure to northern latitudes.
The next cold snap is expected as the moon reaches its southernmost
position for the month on May 6th.
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Coming for NZ
Warmer temperatures came with the northern declination of 22nd, and
colder temperatures will return again for May 5th. Persistently good
rain is not expected until mid May. The high pressure systems will move
east around 9 May. There should be more colder days during this coming
winter, but not necessarily colder temperatures. Think of it as more
firewood needed. Until lasy week Auckland airport had only recorded 18mm
of rain in all April. Some said this has been a year without a summer,
because January and February saw a lot of rain, and those people gave up
on the waiting. Others have commented that this, now, is the Indian
summer that began on February 18, was hot for ten days then has stayed
mostly dry for nearly two months, apart from some quick cyclonic storms
that swept quickly through mid March and mid April. With the onset of
March the district slid into the milder temperatures of autumn. April
has still not brought out winter clothing. But things are about to
change.
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Southern Hawkes Bay, 2008
The weather almanac 2008 is completed and Random House are preparing it
for release in September. Some farmers have expressed the desire to see
parts now, so they can make decisions for next year. One group in
particular are the Hastings winegrowers. Here, then, are some notes re
2008 for that area.
For 2008 for Hastings expect a cooler late-summer, and southern Hawkes
Bay generally may have a cooler than average January/February. A warmer
autumn is expected, and February to August that may serve temperatures
well above the average. Subzero temps that cause frosts may not kick in
till May 1st, although minimums will go below 5C at times in April.
September to November may be cooler than normal for Hastings. December
should be warmer than average for the whole province.Overall it may be a
slightly drier than normal year. Compared to average Jan-May should be
drier than normal but March could be wetter, most rain coming in the
second half of the month. Only one cyclone is expected next year. Months
drier than average may be, in order of driest through to least driest,
January, April, December, May, July, February and November. Months
wetter than average may be, in order of wettest, August, September,
June, October and March. After a very dry January and continuing into
February, good rain arrives in March, however the rest of spring may be
dry. June will bring the winter rains but July allows a drying out. In
August the rains resume with a vengeance and do not let up until
October. The year should sunnier than average. Average to sunnier months
should be February to July and December. January and August may be
cloudier than normal. The remainder may be average. In southern Hawkes
Bay, Waipukurau may have an average year for sun hours. January/February
may be cloudier there than normal, March to July may be average to
sunnier and August cloudier. September sees the sunny skies return but
October/November are again cloudier. December sees more sun than the
norm. For Gisborne, 2008 may be a year of very high average mean
temperatures and high sunshine hours, although January for Gisborne may
be close to average in temperature but warmer than average in Napier.
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Declination notes
When the moon changes hemispheres, temperatures change and so do
barometric pressures. Take a random month from the past, say July of
2001, and look at the barometric record for, say, Christchurch. The
southern declination was on the 6th, the day of the month's highest
millibaric reading. The lowest barometric reading for that month was on
the 20th, the day of northern declination. Look at any month and you
will see similar fluctuation.
Declination is the name given by astronomers and astrologers alike to
the latitude the sun or moon is at each day. The sun is easy to work
out. At Xmas time it sits in the southern hemisphere, at around 23deg.
Then creeps up, passing the equator on March 21st, to sit at 23 deg
above the equator in the northern hemisphere on June 21st. Then it
slides back south again. With the moon this declination changes every 27
days, as the moon slowly makes its orbital run through space around the
earth, moving an average of 13 degrees a day of a 360deg circle. We have
always called this phenomenon a "month". From a vantage point in space
we would see that both Earth and moon orbit the sun, along with the
other planets in the cosmos in a flattish plane we call the ecliptic. It
is as if the planets are all strung out on the surface of a dinner
plate, revolving around the sun sitting about the centre. In this
respect the moon behaves like a planet and does not stray too far from
the ecliptic. But it gets a little complicated. If the Earth was
revolving in an upright position, the moon would be seen to orbit at the
equator. It would only ever be seen in the north from NZ and so would
rise in the northeast and set in the northwest, day after day, year
after year. However, because the Earth is on a big tilt, a lean of
23degres from perpendicular as it moves around the sun in a year, the
orbiting moon is looking at the northern hemisphere of Earth for half
the "month" and for the rest of the month it is gazing down on the
southern hemisphere. From a vantage point on Earth this change in
declination can only be seen at the moment of moon rising or setting, as
the point of rising moves along the eastern horizon or the point of
setting traverses the western skyline 48 minutes later each day.
Performing this declination dance the moon scuttles back and forth along
the eastern horizon 13 times per year, compared the sun's once. At the
moment of writing, 26 April, the sun is at 13degrees declination from
the equator and the moon is at 15deg.. On 26 May the sun will be at
21degrees.
There are times when the sun's and moon's declination match, and this
should be watched. Here's how it works. Every solar equinox(March 22
and Sept 22) the sun is at 0deg, reaching 23deg at the solstices(Dec 22
and June 22). On April 9-12th the moon was in the south. April 9 was
also the day of southern declination. The moon and sun were 35deg apart
on April 9th, the day all the heavens broke loose with winds and rain
over much of the country. Not coincidentally 35deg was the maximum
degrees apart for all of April 2007 that these two declinations could
ever get. Between April 17th-26th the moon's declination has been
outside that of the sun. The weather has been clear. On May 16th the sun
and moon declination again match, at around 18deg. As usual there will
be a weather change - this time for the worse because the 16th is also
the day of perigee+New moon, one of the winter cold-breeders. By May
23rd more settled weather will begin to return, and by 27th, when the
moon and sun declinations again match, weather will be again turn more
settled until June 3rd, the day the declinations will again be the
furthest apart for a month (this time 50deg) and on this day coinciding
with another cold-breeder, the next southern declination, which will
again bring rain and cooler temperatures. This will result in snow for
much of the lower South Island, and everyone will go around saying
winter is now here.
The old folklore speaks of the moon and weather turning. They meant the
northern declination in the northern hemisphere winter, and the change
of moon direction that brought the onset of snow from the north pole. As
the moon fell out of favour and its references to weather deleted, the
expression became shortened to 'a turn in the weather'. Turning implies
direction, and direction, wind.
Northern declination for both Australia NZ usually means a warmer time,
as the moon sends northerlies and northwesterlies blowing air down from
the equator. Australia gets rain, as they have just had, especially
Sydney, every northern declination. The North Island of NZ is generally
wetter. The South Island is drier. Northern declination typically brings
lower barometric pressures, shallow anticyclones and warmth and
humidity. Because the moon's orbit runs parallel to that of the earth at
north or south declination times, and this lasts for two or three days,
the speed of the moon orbiting earth slows relative to that of the
rotating earth, a situation that results in slower weather systems.
Whatever weather was around before the moon reached the north or south
declination will get to be the weather that remains fairly unchanging
for a few days. This happens to be the time that the metservices are the
most correct, as the assumption that tomorrow's weather will be the same
as today's works best at this time of the declination-month. From the
point of northern declination the moon treks south and in about a week
has reached the equator. It drags equatorial air with it as it moves.
This is called lunar equinox, and is a time of stronger winds. The lunar
equinox is like the midpoint of a pendulum, the fastest point in the
pendulum's swing. These winds take about two days to reach NZ. Most will
be familiar with "equinoctial gales", the winds caused by the sun's
equinox, which is subject to the same dynamic, this time the sun's pull
on Earth and everything on it, including the air. Equinoctial gales is
an expression seldom heard these days because now everything that
happens, wind or no wind, a leaf falling or a dog barking is caused by
global warming and man-made climate change! But it is for that
equinoctial reason that most tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons
occur in March or September, give or take a month on either side.
In lunar equinox, electrical storms are more common than at other times
of the month. The reason is that the moon is crossing the electrical
field lines of Earth with more speed and force at this time and this
sets up a similar mechanism to a simple dynamo, where a charged body
cutting a force field between poles can generate a current. The lunar
equinox is the time the metservices are least accurate, because faster
weather systems occurring due to a faster moving moon relative to Earth
ensure that the weather today may not be the same tomorrow, and the
assumption that a weathermap photo taken today of skies from satellites
will accurately depict tomorrow's weather breaks down.
A week after lunar equinox the southern declination is reached. Southern
declination brings mainly drier weather in the north, and southerlies
and inclement weather in the south and southwest, also higher barometric
readings and shallow depressions.
Most cold snaps and snow dumps in the lower South Island occur around
southern declination. For example, in 2006 southern declinations
occurred on June 12, July 10th, August 6th and September 3rd, and these
were snow event days. In 2007 we have already had significant cold snaps
on February 13th, March 13th and April 9th, each a southern declination
date. It is easy to see why in the ancient past lunar declinations
occupied weather forecasters' minds the most. Stone circles were erected
to keep track of them, because their influence was known, feared and
perhaps prepared for. In places that are earthquake-prone, numbers of
tremors peak at times the moon is at this furthest point north or south.
What is coming up? On May 7 the moon and sun declinations are furthest
apart and by the 8th will start to come closer. Consequently the big
high pressure system that has kept renewing itself and dominating the NZ
skies for over a month will begin to move east about May 8. The moon
hits the southern declination on 6 May, and colder temperatures will
kick in, lasting until about the 15th. For the rest of the year the
southern declination dates are 2 June, 27 July, 23 August, 20 September,
17 October, 13 November and 10 December. You might want to circle these
dates on the calendar.
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Snow reports
The snow reports for NZ are now available and purchaseable either online
or by cheque. This year each report comprises a written report for the
whole country, month by month, with emphasis on snow events. A daily
data spreadsheet of expected precipitation, sunshine, temperatures
maximum and minimum, wind speed and direction and other factors, forms
another document. The third document in the package is an assemply of
easy-read graphs of rain, temperatires and wind directions. The North
Island is $35 and the South Island $55. For both there is a discounted
price of $70. The postal address for cheques, as well as internet
deposit details, are at the end of this ezine. To summarise the NZ
winter,
good snow June and July, a dry but cold August, precipitation in the
first week of September but quickly rising temperatures after that.
For Wanaka temperatures should drop markedly about the the first week of
June, with sleet and snow arriving. Snow flurries will come in the
second week of June, and a good snowfall in the third week. Thereafter
good falls may come about the last week of June and first and third
weeks of July. The rest of the season's snow is in the snow report.
Colder temperatures over the whole season should sustain snow between
falls. Plenty of clear days will ensure tourists flock to the
snowfields. A bumper season is likely, without transport problems
experienced last year because of mainly one big snow event. Colder
winters are going to be the rule for a few years, because weather is
cyclic and tied to the combination of phases of the moon and the moon's
changing distance from Earth.
So expect a slightly longer winter ski season than last year, with first
significant snow for the whole country arriving in the second week of
June. South Canterbury may have falls up to the end of November. Mt
Ruapehu will snow from June to October, but between June and mid August
access roads may again see closures. The trend in the next few years is
towards longer winters and extended summers, with the peak of the colder
winter seasons around 2011-13.
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-------------------
More Global Warming Swindles: Biofuels
We are told by the green lobby that biofuels are the answer to our
problems, that when oil runs out we can grow our fuel, and clean corn
does not put dirty exhausts into the air. As usual; lies, lies, lies.
The biofuel industry requires an extension of the area used for
intensive agriculture, and provides an inefficient solution for the
tackling of climate change. Biofuel plantations require intensive
farming with high-chemical input, will use large amounts of land, will
burden soil and groundwater, and will decrease biodiversity. Regarding
climate change, the benefits are very uncertain and the reduction costs
are high. The proposal does not make much sense, neither from an
economic, an energy, nor an ecological point of view. Growing crops for
fuel is like boiling water to get rain for dams. Biofuels get their
actual energy gain from the sun, as do any other fossil fuel like wood,
coal, gas or oil. They are all just bottled sunshine. They all let off
gases when they burn. The only relative differences are the processing
costs. The unfortunate truth is that an equivalent of nearly a litre of
fuel is used to produce a litre of biofuel, which means limited net CO2
reduction, and high costs. It is only subsidies that keep the industry
viable. Removal of the subsidies would see all land converted to bio-ag
rendered bankrupt.
Cassava, a tropical potato-like tuber also known as manioc, provides
one-third of the caloric needs of the population in sub-Saharan Africa
and is the primary staple for over 200 million of Africa's poorest
people. In many tropical countries, it is the food people turn to when
they cannot afford anything else. It also serves as an important reserve
when other crops fail because it can grow in poor soils and dry
conditions and can be left in the ground to be harvested as needed.
Thanks to its high-starch content, cassava is also an excellent source
of ethanol. As the technology for converting it to fuel improves, many
countries, including China, Nigeria, and Thailand, are considering using
more of the crop to that end. If peasant farmers in developing countries
could become suppliers for the emerging industry, they would benefit
from the increased income. But the history of industrial demand for
agricultural crops in these countries suggests that large producers will
be the main beneficiaries. The likely result of a boom in cassava-based
ethanol production is that an increasing number of poor people will
struggle even more to feed themselves.
In the poorest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America,
where cassava is a staple, its price is expected to increase by 33
percent by 2010 and 135 percent by 2020. The projected price increases
may be mitigated if crop yields increase substantially or ethanol
production based on other raw materials (such as trees and grasses)
becomes commercially viable. But unless biofuel policies change
significantly, neither development is likely. The production of
cassava-based ethanol may pose an especially grave threat to the food
security of the world's poor.
By increasing the demand for bioproduce to be used for fuel, you
immediately transfer cartels from offshore to onshore. Increased demand
raises prices. In the US the prices of oilseeds, including soybeans,
rapeseeds, and sunflower seeds, are projected to rise by 26 percent by
2010 and 76 percent by 2020, and wheat prices by 11 percent by 2010 and
30 percent by 2020. This will raise the price of all processed foods,
because most contain these ingredients, either in the oils used for the
processing or the wheat etc added for bulk consistancy.
Thanks to the bio-fuel mania, rises in food prices are already being
seen in the US as a boom in ethanol production diverts more corn from
the nation's dinner table to its gas tank. Indeed, their pocketbooks
could feel the pinch for years to come. According to the Wall St
Journal, high corn prices, bad weather and steep energy costs have
combined to make food a bigger potential contributor to inflation this
year than it has been at least since 2004, when a cutback in dairy
production boosted dairy prices and beef prices rose as mad-cow disease
disrupted trade.
The Agriculture Department says that retail food prices are likely to
climb by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2007, fueled in part by strong demand for
corn-derived ethanol. But Michael Swanson, an agricultural economist at
Wells Fargo & Co., thinks the rise could be an even sharper 4.5%. So
prices are rising for food and energy as a result of global warming
alarmism. The average Joe must be so happy Al Gore has brought this to
the forefront of the power elite's attention. The best customers for
U.S. corn farmers are U.S. livestock producers, who buy half the corn
produced in the U.S. as feed for their cattle, hogs and poultry. But
with corn prices more than doubling over the last six months because of
the booming demand for ethanol, U.S. beef and pork producers are
starting to take positions at odds with their friends in the corn
industry. In particular, they are opposing tax and trade policies that
offer incentives for corn-based ethanol production. Otherwise all prices
for agricultural products will go through the roof. Some farmers in
Nebraska can't even purchase corn to feed their pigs this spring because
corn producers have already contracted their production at today's high
prices to go to elevators or ethanol plants.
Ethanol will not lead to energy independence. If all the corn produced
in America last year were dedicated to ethanol production (and only 14.3
percent of it was), U.S. gasoline consumption would drop by only 12
percent. For corn ethanol to displace gasoline in the US, they would
need to appropriate all cropland, turn it over to corn-ethanol
production, and then find 20 percent more land on top of that for
cultivation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes that
the practical limit for domestic ethanol production is about 700,000
barrels a day - a figure they don't think is realistic until 2030.
Ethanol is not even economically competitive. Nor does its use reduce
greenhouse emissions. According to a 2005 report by the U.S. Agriculture
Department, corn ethanol costs an average of $2.53 to produce, or
several times what it costs to produce a gallon of gasoline. Without the
subsidies, costs would be higher still. If you lived in urban areas that
used reformulated gasoline last summer - that's the environmentally
"clean" gasoline required for areas with air pollution problems - you
might have paid up to 60 cents a gallon more for gasoline than you would
have otherwise. That's because the federal government required oil
refineries to use 4 billion gallons of ethanol in 2006 regardless of
price. Ethanol is not a renewable fuel. According to a group of
academics from the University of California at Berkeley who published in
Science magazine, only 5 to 26 percent of the energy content of ethanol
is "renewable." The balance of ethanol's energy actually comes from the
staggering amount of coal, natural gas and nuclear power necessary to
produce corn and process it into ethanol.
What about pollution? A review of the literature by Australian academic
Robert Niven found that, when evaporative emissions are taken into
account, E10 (fuel that's 10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline,
the standard mix that constitutes the bulk of the ethanol available
today) increases emissions of total hydrocarbons, non-methane organic
compounds and air toxics compared to conventional gasoline. The
pollution is actually worse for E85.
Oil is available, cheap and no one has a problem with it except the
shrieking greenies. Any alternative to driving our vehicles won't work.
Bicycles are okay in Christchurch, but not Wellington. The electric car
would run batteries down in the Auckland morning rush hour, when it can
take two hours to get across town just before school time. The
solar-powered car? Only in the middle of Australia. Trains? There aren't
any on Auckland's North Shore, on Waiheke, and in fact most rural towns,
after Labour politicians of the Lange government allowed the tracks to
be ripped out in favour of trucks. They forgot that trains can also
carry people, but trucks can't.
http://www.environmental-expert.com/resulteacharticle4.asp?cid=21293&cod
i=6668
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117667991954270669.html
http://factsaboutethanol.org/?p=156
http://factsaboutethanol.org/?p=151
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Ice cores
We hear a lot about ice cores, and how looking at plugs withdrawn from
centuries-old ice can detect climatic changes even over several million
years. The conclusion, shouted from the rooftops by Al Gore and his
parrots, was that CO2 has increased markedly over recent years. The real
situation? Old ice loses CO2. I'll say it again, just for Al. Old ice
loses CO2. Just as surely as an old opened bottle of Coke does. Even a
kid knows that. The more recent the ice, the more CO2 will show up in
it. But that doesn't mean CO2 has increased over recent years, any more
than Coca Cola Ltd has been using more gas in the past few days than
ever before.
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Crow the butt of jokes
Grammy winner Sheryl Crow's suggestion people limit themselves to only
one square of toilet paper to help the environment has had newspapers
around the world making cracks after taking her comments seriously. The
media has been trying to get to the bottom of the comment which she says
just slipped out.. Crow now hopes to wipe the slate clean. Looking
flushed, she admitted in hindsight she could have handled the issue
differently. Stand-up comedians have noted that the rule of one piece of
loo paper may initially catch-on in the short fall, but the concept is
not expected to gain traction in the long run. Comments range from that
she now should know what the dark side looks like, to Jay Leno's "I'm
not shaking hands with her anymore". The jokes keep coming out.
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-
Website upgrade
I apologise to clients who have been trying to access predictions for
2008 and beyond. The website is undergoing a facelift and
reconstruction, with many exciting new features. Soon readers will be
able to gain predictions for several years ahead if required. Until
then, forecasts are being generated manually by our staff. Please email
us at enqui-@predictweather.com if you have a request.
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Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If
we take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a
year we have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the average
perigee distance for the year. Looking at a series of these we note that
about every 4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer,
called a cp year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to an
8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for
about 3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator,
then further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years
before beginning the return journey. Closer perigee years occur when the
moon is passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth
bulges into space more at the equator and so is going to be generally
slightly closer to the moon. When perigee is about the equator between
changing hemispheres (e.g.2005-2007) it causes more
cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons to form. The northern hemisphere can expect
a big hurricane event in late October. By 2008, perigee will have
shifted to the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point
between July 2008-December 2008. This year may be the last for seriously
destructive events until 2011, 2015 and 2020.
February's perigee (8th closest) coincides with New moon 18th-19th. As
perigees work their way closer to earth the Moon's destructive power
will be unleashed at these times, but because perigee occurs around the
equatorial latitudes in 2007 most damage will be to Aus's northern half.
March's perigee (on 20th) at #4 closest will pack an equinoctial punch
bringing freak weather. April's perigee (on 17th) will be #3 closest for
the year and should bring strong winds about the beginning of the fourth
week.
May's perigee (16th ) is #5 should cause temperatures to plunge over
the following week.
June 13th is P#9 and the days following will serve the worst weather for
the month.
July 10th P#12 affecting about the beginning of the third week.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some places but leave
others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect following
days.
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NZ in May
May should be 10-15% drier than average for both islands. N Is.
districts wetter than average may be Coromandel, Te Puke, Wanganui,
Levin and Dannevirke. SI districts wetter may be Takaka, Lake Tekapo
and the area between Ashburton and Timaru. For the N Is., the driest
period should be the first week of the month. The wettest time for the
whole country could be the second week, with significant falls also in
the last week. Sunshine hours may be above average in the NI but average
in the S Is. Parts of Northland may be cloudier than normal but most
other NI areas will receive less cloud, some about a third less than
average. Most SI areas have average sun, but Alexandra, Cromwell and
Gore may get more than expected; and Ashburton, Timaru and Balclutha
less. Most districts may be warmer than average, although Tauranga may
be cooler. Apart from the SI west coast and Southland the first week may
be mostly fine and sunny for NZ. In the last days of the month heavy SW
winds and rough seas may affect the Wairarapa coast. Ruapehu may receive
first snows and heavy rain may fall in Tokoroa, Greymouth, Wellington
and Wairarapa.. Fishing bite times are best around 3rd-5th, 11th-13th,
18th-20th and 25th-27th. 1st-6th:
1st-4th: A weak ridge extends onto NZ from an anticyclone in the Tasman
but westerlies freshen again to the S of the SI about 2nd - 4th.
5th-9th: A number of cold fronts move over the country between 5th -
8th. These are followed by cooler SW's which bring a few showers to
southern and eastern regions of the SI. An anticyclone covers NZ for
the next few days.
10th-11th: About 10th a large depression in the Tasman Sea moves
towards NZ. Unsettled weather affects most regions by 11th as an active
frontal system within a moist NE airstream moves onto the country. Some
relief comes to drier affected areas in eastern regions with significant
rain on 10th - 11th.
12th-16th: A shallow depression lays just W of the NI on 12th and
remains almost stationary until 15th. During this time, moist NE
conditions predominate over much of NZ. The depression weakens as it
crosses the country by 16th, followed by a light SW to W airstream.
17th-25th: A ridge of high pressure spreads onto the country on or near
17th, followed by a short lived period of anticyclonic weather around
18th. A cold front moves N over NZ during the next few days followed by
cooler southerlies. Anticyclonic conditions continue again from the
22nd through to 25th interrupted briefly by westerly conditions over the
SI from 23rd.
26th-31st: Disturbed W conditions predominate until 28th followed by S
which spread onto the country as an anticyclone approaches from the
Tasman Sea. The anticyclone covers the country on 30th but weakens on
the following day as a trough of low pressure begins to move onto the SI
.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around Full
moon (2nd), perigee(16th), New moon (17th), and apogee(28th)
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st, 9th -15th, 18th-19th, 24th-29th, (heavier
11th, 26th)
Western, Central North Is: 1st-3rd, 10th -15th, 24th-29th, (heavier
10th, 11th, 26th)
Taupo: 10th -15th, 24th-26th, (heavier 14th)
Gisborne, HB: 10th -14th, 17th-22nd, 26th-29th, (heavier 11th, 21st)
Lower North Is: 10th-20th, 23th-26th, 28th, 31st(heavier 10th-14th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 9th -17th, 28th (heavier 10th-14th)
Canterbury: 9th -15th, 18th-19th, 27th-28th, 31st(heavier 10th, 14th,
31st)
Otago: 10th -15th, 18th, 25th, 27th, 31st (heavier 10th, 27th)
Dunedin: 8th -15th, 18th-19th, 24th-31st, (heavier 10th)
Southland: 1st, 3rd-7th, 9th -19th, 25th-28th, 30th-31st, (heavier 18th,
27th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 2nd-5th, 23th -27th, 30th-31st (heavier
10th, 12th, 25th, 27th, 31st)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
MOON IN MAY
2nd: Full Moon
6th: Southern Declination
10th: Last Quarter
13th: Crossing Equator
16th: Perigee #5
17th: New Moon
19th: Northern Declination
24th: 1st Quarter
26th: Crossing Equator
28th: Apogee
MOON IN JUNE
1st: Full Moon
2nd: Southern Declination
8th: Last Quarter
9th: Crossing Equator
13th: Perigee #9
15th: Northern Declination
15th: New Moon
22nd: Crossing Equator
23rd: 1st Quarter
25th: Apogee
30th: Southern Declination
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AUSTRALIA REGIONS
Bundaberg
The drought is still lingering about SE QLD but as most other
drought-stricken areas have had good recent rain it is reasonable to
assume that QLD will not completely miss out. But you may have to weait
a bit longer. A mostly dry spell can be expected from now until the
first week in May, when 5th-8th will deliver light falls, and then the
skies may open for SE QLD to be served most of May's rain about May
18th-22nd. Rain is mostly absent in June, apart from small amounts
possible on or near June 7th, 8th, 17th, 29th. July 10th-13th has
promise of good falls, with a quickly passing but big dump about July
21st. Aug 4th sees light falls in the district, with the next chance of
heavy falls about August 29th. There is little or no rain expected in
Sept(except passing shower about 23rd) or October. However, November is
a different story, with good coastal rain 3rd-4th and 13th-14th, and
light falls around 17th-18th and 22nd-24th. Dec 26th should deliver some
worthwhile rain also.
To summarise, about six good downpurs are on the cards for the rest of
the year, but only May 18th, July 10th, and August 29th may serve heavy
enough falls to cause flooding.
For Queensland the first frosts for the year, for those areas
susceptible, should be in the first week in June, and then they may go
right through till the last at the end of October. September may be the
month of the worst fogs. First snow is expected to be at the end of July
around Stanthorpe
----------------------------
Interview with John Laws 2UE, 20 April 2007, 9.53am
Drought breaking?
The water shortage situation may not be that drastic. There'll be a
cyclone crossing the NW coast in the first week of May so that may do
something for the interior, you'll see that start to form about April
29, which will build up as it moves around that W coast and a lot of
rivers may get filled from it over in the west. As a large storm system
moves south it often sends associated rain-bearing fronts wider afield
affecting other States. I have rain chances in the second week of May
over parts of VIC and NSW. It is worth looking at what rains might be
expected in feeder towns that sit on or near the Murray.
In Mildura there are two rain chances, about May 9-10 and again 20-21.
At least one of those dates should deliver about 50mm in one day. After
that there's June 24-28, maybe 12mm, and then nothing significant until
December
Bourke has a rain chance between May 3-10, but not much more than
15-20mm, May 18-28 there's about a 60/40 chance of 100ml. Towns like
Bourke that have weir systems will benefit. However this chance of rain
shows up in one good cycle but not in every one I use. Then perhaps
scarce rain chances until Aug 7-10, about 15mm
Broken Hill: between May 9-12 some good rain, about 20mm and then May
19-20 another 20-30mm. Then some in the first week of August. But then
not much in terms of big amounts till next year.
Cunnamulla the first week in August looks good.
Menindee May 11-12 about 30mm, 19-20th, and August 4-7th
If all these places get this rain then it will add to the Murray river
system and by the time it gets to where it's needed most in the south
there could be good amounts available. Hence May is the month, after
which there's not much more till August. Politically, there has to be an
intensive drive for alternatives. If the govt put all the billions of
dollars that are presently being wasted looking at the silly global
warming and climate change nonsense, into irrigating the interior, the
country's problems would be solved almost overnight. Given that
Australia always was and is always going to be a dry country it's more a
case of management of monetary resources.
As for Sydney in coming months, it's the northern declination on Sunday
22nd and you usually get a few showers out of that. Temperatures will
stay up for a week or so, you're going to get some rain around the end
of the first week in May, with cooler temperatures, May may be quite
warm overall and a bit wet for NSW, then rain for Sydney in the first
week in June, in the middle of June, and first week of July.
May
Rain in E NSW in the first week, then around the 12th-13th and then the
20th onwards. The last few days of May should see the heavens open. And
that lot will all be over by the 1st of June.
June
The next rain will be in the central N on 7th-9th June and the middle of
the month will see rain to many districts in all central and E areas.
The 19th of June brings more for the W half of the State, crossing to
the E half by the 20th and to the S half by the 21st. and then petering
out everywhere. So for the first half of the year, no shortage of rain.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
4BC Brisbane, hosts Peter and Ross, 4 April 2007, 8.40am
Between 4th-10th May, watch out for thunderstorms with hail, gale force
winds and the risk of flooding. Other extreme weather events will be, I
think, in the last week in Aug. and finally in the last week of
December.
June, rain eases back, that month will be drier but other winter months
should see average rain, so winter won't be too dry, a fairly typical
winter in terms of rainfall amounts, then overall a drier spring with
only a third of the average season's rainfall. September should see
plenty of clear sunny days, the occasional foggy morning and
temperatures may take a sharp turn towards warmer by the end of the
month
October is likely to receive little or no rainfall at all this year,
while average rain arrives in November with occasional hail storms.
December ends the year following the drier spring pattern, by being
considerably drier than average.
So the wetter months in 2007 should turn out to be only April and May in
Brisbane and March-Aug in Bundaberg. There's no guarantee that cyclonic
systems will deliver because they tend to be very temperamental and we
can only pinpoint the potential for them, not the certainty.
Hail may come in May in Port Curtis, in June.
Frosts should start in the Warrego on May 23, Frosts can be expected to
start in the Granite belt about May 31, then Warrego again on June 4
extending to Maranoa, Darling Downs and Western Moreton, and Maranoa on
June 10, then a bit on Darling Downs on June 11.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Townsville
Interview with Nathalie Fernbach Radio MIX 106.3, 15 March 2007 1. How
is it possible to predict the weather using the moon (how does it work -
just in layman's terms) ?
The Moon creates weather because of its gravitational pull on the air.
The theory is that the air has a tide, just like the sea and just as a
sea tide is measurable and predictable way in advance, so too with the
air-tide. The airtide creates the weather because thge air is like a big
hunk of insulation keeping away two things; the heat of the sun and the
cold of space, both of which would like to rush to the ground but the
thick air-layer stops both of them. Imagine if the height of the air was
everchanging, just like the level of the ocean, then at different times
of day/night the heat or the cold could come down here, in more or less
amounts. As the moon goes overhead from one horizon to the other it does
change the height of the air by up to 25% which changes the temperature,
which in turn affects cloud formation and condensation and the
generating of winds. For instance around a full moon the moon is out of
the sky until evening so the daytime air height is lower, so the heat of
the sun comes closer to the ground with less air height to stop it.
That's why a summer full moon day is a really hot one and that causes
extreme weather events. That's when TCs form, just like on the last FM
which was on the 4th. The 2nd saw the lowest barometric reading so far
this month. In Feb the FM was on the 2nd. Look at all the rain -300mm-
in the first 3 days of Feb. In Jan the FM was on the 4th. You got the
highest wind speed that day, 35kph. That's because on the 3rd the moon
was in what they call apogee which is when the moon is closer to earth
or most distant, that's when this air tide effect gets exaggerated. Of
course no technology has been put into this, because the metservices
refuse to consider that the moon has any influence on weather, so for
this type of longrange forecasting we have to use older and more
traditional methods. We look at moon cycles and match present weather to
historic weather that happened on same moon cycle times in the past. To
do this we access historical data. In the past, ancient villagers kept
their own records by planting sticks and marker stones around stone
circles like Stonehenge. These stone rings were all aligned to the moon
and were really giant laptops.
**************************
2. How accurate are your predictions ? (did you have any inkling of
Cyclone Larry?)
Well let's look back. For Jan, I said heavy heavy around 24th Townsville
actually got 100mm on 22nd) I had the hottest day down to be on 17th,
actually it was the hottest day on 14th, close enough. I had 235mm for
Jan, you got 280mm. For Feb, I said, a lot of rain would come around the
middle of the month, 13th-19th, cyclonic about 15th and possible floods
15th-20th. Well, you got 25mm on 15th. BUT totally unpredictable things
happen around a FM and that is always an error factor which I warn
about,-always expect extreme weather around summer FMs. Cyclone Larry
was one of those, and if you look back at all the big summer cyclones,
you'll find most occur either on or near Full or New moons. As to
accuracy most give me about 85%. Longrange forecasting is more about
trends than day to day, which the BoM is better at. When you go to the
doctor and he says take these for your problem - it may clear up today
or in a couple of days time. Well, I'm the same. It may clear up today
or in a couple of days time. If it's good enough for a visit to your
doctor why should I be any different?.
**************************
3. Why do you do it ?
Well, why not? Someone has to! I want to provide something useful and I
want to spread knowledge about the moon's role in weather, which is
something of a gaping hole in meterology. If forecasters can't predict
weather for a week ahead then they certainly don't know what extreme
weather will be happening in 50 years time, so global warming centuries
ahead is just rubbish. I want farmers to start doing this themselves, to
look at the cycles that are operating, and you won't hear that word
cycles used much by the scaremongers, and I want them to stop scaring
the kids. There's no such thing as climate change. Climate means weather
at a latitude, anyone can look the word climate up in the dictionary.
Well, latitudes don't change. For instance Cairns is almost the same
latitude as Broome. They both get the same average temperatures, annual
maximums around 30-31 and minimums around 20. Go down the bottom and
Perth right in the west is pretty much the same latitude as Broken Hill
in the middle and Taree on the E coast and all three get about 24 for
their average maximum and 12 for the average min. Bourke in QLD is the
same as Dalwallinu in WA. So I do it because they are discoveries I've
made and it's nice to share it.
**************************
4. Here in Townsville we are having a late hot Summer (which nobody
seems to have predicted), so what's on the cards for Townsville for the
rest of 2007?
Immediately coming up, for March, I'd say more rain around the 17th and
26th, and it should be quite wet from 30th-Apr 3rd. From now till June
there'll be a lot of rain, but June and July will only have about 5 or 6
rain days each, so there'll be some big downpours
Aug to Oct, little or no rain at all
November, about half the average rain amount for that month
and Dec, again wetter than average, most coming in first and last weeks,
and some gales and stormy weather in the last few days of the year all
over the NE of the State.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA
Q: What is the long range weather forecast for Victoria, especially
areas like Swan Hill, Shepparton, Bendigo and Ballarat?
A: For this year for Ballarat and Melbourne region, an average or drier
year, then a WETTER than average year south of Melbourne and in the east
of the State, and also up around Bendigo and Shepparton. South Rivernia
may be average-to-wetter. In the west e.g.Horsham may be about average,
although Coleraine may be drier.
VICTORIA
2007: wetter year,
autumn: wet, cloudy, not cold
winter: cloudy
spring: not too warm, unusually cool,
summer: sunny,
2008: a drier and warm year with high Ts, no cool parts, but won't be
dry enough to be called a drought year
autumn: warm,
winter: cool maximums
spring: dry, cool parts
summer: cloudy, some record high Ts, windy
2009: an average rainfall year, dry sunny. Not a year with anything
unusual going on, a sort of in-between year, average rain and average
temperatures,
autumn: dry, sunny, not hot Ts,
winter: wet, warm, no extra cold times
spring: sunniest,
summer: driest,
2010: an unusually wet and windy year with an extra cold winter
autumn: windy
winter: dry, sunny, extra cold, windy
spring: cloudy, wet windy
summer: wet, not cool, calm
2011: another wetter than average year, cloudy, notable for being very
calm not hot, cooler than av,
autumn: unseasonably cool, calm
winter: calm
spring: calm
summer: cold, no hot parts
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Frozen is more normal
We hear much about how "fragile" or "delicate" the Earth and its climate
are now considered to be, and how very easily we can go beyond "tipping
point". According to climate experts, if we persist in this satanic
habit of burning fossil fuels, the slightest further disruption or
insensitivity by man could cause a catastrophe. But is life on earth
really that finely balanced?
Life as we know it has existed and evolved for at least 500 million
years. It began as primaeval slime and evolved to present day, during
which time almost every calamity did happen. Yet life is still here.
In Precambrian time, 4.5 to 5.5 billion years ago, the Earth was born.
To get an idea of this time scale, stand with your arms held out to each
side and let the extent of Earth's history be represented by the
distance from the tips of your fingers on your left hand to the tips of
the fingers on your right. Now, if someone were to run a file across the
fingernail of your right middle finger, then the time that humans have
been on the earth would be erased. Another way to think of it is the
last inch in two miles.
The Precambrian period, roughly seven-eighths of Earth's history, has
witnessed the most important events in biological history.
Solidification of the molten material into rocks happened as the Earth
cooled. The oldest meteorites and lunar rocks are about 4.5 billion
years old, but the oldest Earth rocks currently known are 3.8 billion
years old. Sometime during the first 800 million or so years of its
history, the surface of the Earth changed from liquid to solid. Once
solid rock formed on the Earth, its geological history began. This most
likely happened prior to 3.8 billion years, but hard evidence for this
is lacking. Erosion and plate tectonics has probably destroyed all of
the solid rocks that were older than 3.8 billion years.
Life arose as the first tectonic plates began to move. Eukaryotic cells
evolved as the atmosphere became enriched in oxygen - and just before
the end of the Precambrian, complex multicellular organisms evolved,
including the first animals. But nearly 4 billion years had to pass
after the Earth's inception before the first animals left their traces,
roughly seven-eighths of Earth's history.
The Archaean is the name given to the period of 3.8-2.5 billion years
ago. It was early in the Archaean that we think life first appeared on
Earth. Our oldest fossils date to roughly 3.5 billion years ago, and
consist of bacteria microfossils. All life during the more than one
billion years of the Archaean was bacterial. Yet the early stages of
life seems to have survived through everything that was thrown at them.
The Earth's crust was ripped apart by huge earthquakes and volcanoes
that make Mt St Helens look like a small firecracker. Huge comets and
asteroids plunged into Earth, one which probably finished off the
dinosaurs, with some impacts creating enormous craters that in time
formed our lakes and oceans. And as if that hasn't been enough, the Sun
has flared up and cooled down with frightening regularity and our
protective magnetic field has countless times collapsed exposing us to
deadly cosmic rays, not to mention magnetic pole reversals.
The continents have also drifted around, shifting the positions of both
poles, with the result that all continents in their geological past have
gone through alternating regimes of desert, jungle forest, and
glaciation. For example why there is oil in the Middle East is because
the Sahara Desert was once the Sahara Forest. Two interglacials ago
Antarctic was 5C warmer than today. 20,000 years ago the south pole was
near Perth and Antarctica was still forested and had human occupation.
Western Australia was then covered with snow. At this time the North
Pole was not far from Chicago, an area referred to by geologists as the
Illinoisian Ice Cap. The snow then reached right to Mexico. But when
studying ice cores the shifting of the poles is not taken into account,
which makes ice core research typical only of an isolated area of fairly
rapidly changing latitude, irrelevant to any averaging for the globe.
The only likely conclusion from such an exercise is that the research
funding opportunity will continue to be milked.
Early forms of life were certainly robust enough to withstand all these
massive changes. That a few polar bears have been filmed vainly looking
for seals by greenie reporters vainly looking for a good story,
indicates something about species desperation but not on the part of the
bears.
What causes ice ages? Most people may be under the impression that the
Earth is in a circular orbit around the Sun at a distance of 149 million
kms. Earth does indeed orbit the Sun, but not in a circle. In fact the
shape is more like a rugby football. It is called an ellipse, and the
Sun is not dead centre but offset within it. At present, this orbital
eccentricity is not too far from the minimum of this cycle, which lasts
100,000 years. An ice age dawns when the orbit of Earth around the Sun
changes back to a near circle after being elongated. Changing the
distances from Earth to Sun over this cycle changes the distance the
Sun's shortwave radiation must travel to reach Earth. The Earth-Sun
distance can vary by as much as 18 million km. At the maximum end of the
cycle, solar variation can vary by 30% in one year, compared to 7% at
present. To accommodate the 30% annual intensity of solar radiation,
climate is bound to change. During the highly elongated phase,
temperature contrast is very strong, especially between northern and
southern hemispheres. Any ice formed at the far end of the orbit is
melted off again quickly as the Earth makes a close approach to the Sun
at the near end of the orbit. But as the orbit contracts to a more
regular shape the temperature contrast diminishes, and favours the
growth of ice ages.
Because of this elliptical cycle, a major part of the geological history
of Earth has been that large parts of the planet have been frozen in
long ice age mode. It is not generally realized that the Earth spends
roughly 80% of its time in ice age and only 20% of time in brief warm
spells, and therefore ice ages are really the natural state of Earth and
should be given that status. In the life of the Earth the present
climate pattern is not the norm. Most periods of glaciation average
about 50,000 yrs, and interglacials, which we are in now, only 10,000
years. After an interglacial the Earth settles back to normal - ice age.
As it is 11,000 years since the last ice age, it is 99.99% reasonable to
assume that we are now heading toward the next. In about 10,000 years,
all earthlings should start to feel significantly cooler.
Warming is a blessing and is beneficial. Warmth brings more vegetation
and life. During the last Ice Age, much of what is now tropic rain
forest was dry and relatively barren savanna. Any botanic map showing
vegetation 15,000 years ago will demonstrate that. Earth's humans have
already lived through many glacial and interglacials. Archaeologists
have recently unearthed signs of village life in Britain and Scandinavia
dating back 700,000 years.
To conclude, contrary to popular belief, the Earth, its climate and life
itself are as tough as old boots. They could not have survived all that
cosmic battering if they weren't. After every disruption and catastrophe
the climate has always returned to more or less its present form. It
must have some sort of mechanism which can resist any tendency to change
outside narrow limits. But clearly it is not as fragile and delicate as
some conservationists would have us believe. If planets could laugh,
they'd love the thought of humans installing ecofriendly light bulbs to
avert climate change.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
Why The Drought Is Nearly Gone
Evidence that the Australian drought is nearly over can be found by
looking at the timing of past droughts, and identifying a pattern. It
will come as no surprise that all drought periods have appeared around
El Nino years, because talk of El Nino usually comes about after the dry
sets in. But it may put a different twist on the matter if El Nino is
identified as a sequential pattern that can be used to extrapolate both
into the distant past for which records are unavailable and into future
years not yet come.
Readers will remember that the signature of an El Nino is warmer water
off the west of South America with heavy rain and floods there and
corresponding cooler water off Australia leading to drought. An El Nino
is the result of changes in the air pressure across the southern Pacific
Ocean, known as the southern oscillation index. It is little known or
recognized amongst meteorologists that changes in air pressure are
brought about monthly by the moon changing hemispheres, and every 18-19
years a maximum north and south latitude is reached in this cycle
bringing peaks to the air pressure change system which results in a
regime cycle in temperatures.
It appears that the weather experts cannot get a proper grip on the El
Nino/ La Nina oscillation because they are too busy looking at ocean
temperatures as measured by buoys. Their belief seems to be that sea
temperatures heat the air and then drive the air pressure in what they
see as a closed system. However it is not a closed system and the air
temperatures and pressures come first. In other words the air above the
sea heats the surface of the sea and not vice versa. The air temperature
is driven by the heat from the sun. The fact that there might be an
identifiable cycle is less attractive today, when it is more fashionable
to be shrugging shoulders and claiming weird unaccountable weather
devoid of pattern is now the rule. Such talk generates more research
funding and opens the way to carbon taxes on gases put artificially into
the air. Then, apparently the climate may be brought back to "normal",
as defined by politicians and economists. It does not take much analysis
of data already in the possession of the climatologists to see the
pattern is evident and it is robust. The drought of 1901-2 was called an
El Nino year, as were the years 1913-14, 1918-20, 1935-36, 1940,
1943-44, 1951, 1965-68, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-95 and 1996 onwards.
These have been the main Australian drought-defined periods of the last
century. Equivalent dry years in the previous century would have been
1807, 1825, 1843, 1888. Unfortunately Sydney data goes back only to
1858, and Sydney received only about half the average rainfall in
1888(583mm) which fits the pattern.
Between 1900 and 2006 a total of 11 identified El Ninos have occurred in
106 years, averaging 9.5 years between each. Droughts occur in the same
place every 9-11 years. This is a combination of the lunar cycle of
9.years and the sunspot cycle of 11 years. These gaps are not exact and
may vary over a shorter term, but over a longer term the average gap
closely adheres to this figure. Let's look at a few gap years between
dry periods. Droughts were during 1963-68 then 1972-73, showing a 9 yr
gap between 1963-1972. The next drought was 1982-83. It is 9 yrs between
1973-1982. Then we had the drought of 1991-95. It is 9 years between
1982-1991. After that we have drought kicking in around 2005. It is 10
years between 1995-2005. 9 years is a multiple of 18 and 36, which are
lunar cycles. From this, we can predict that the next El Nino and
Australian drought period of significance may click in around 2011-12.
Rainfall figures spanning 1938-2005 for Glenprairie, QSLD, have been
sent to me. Low rain years there fit in very well to the El Nino
pattern. They were 1938(504mm), 1944/45(531mm), 1952(461mm),
1957(361mm), 1965/66(336mm), 1972(476mm), 1977, 1982(375mm),
1987(503mm), 1992/93(451mm), 1997(438mm), 2002(345mm), 2006(453mm). The
gap numbers between these years are roughly 6, 7, 5, 8, 7, 5, 5, 5, 5,
5, 5, 5. Droughts are plottable near maximum lunar declinations,
because high maximum temperatures become more extreme with the moon's
more northern latitude. Mostly, the years following lunar maximum
declinations have been wetter than average and we can look to them for
years of rain relief. These years have been have been 1804, 1840, 1858,
1899, 1915, 1933, 1951, 1971, 1989, 2007, and perhaps will be 2026.
Again Glenprairie still shows a clear trend, for example
heavier-than-average rain years were 1951 with 1187(mm), 1971(1340mm),
and 1990(1076mm). So drought-hit farmers can take heart. They may have
passed the worst of it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
UK Winter
The first half of May may also be cooler and wetter than normal, with
drier conditions in the second half.
The first half of June should be dry, and although warmer weather may
arrive in the first few days, temperatures could cool again by the 4th.
Mid June brings last rogue snows or hailstorms of the season for
elevated and northern districts, and the expected upward change to
summer temperatures may be felt about June 21st.
Drier periods in 2007 may be Jan 9-16, Feb 11-16, 18-21, Apr 6-13, May
13-22, May 26-June 14, June 22-July 8, July 15-17, July 22-Aug 6, Aug
14-21, Aug 31-Sept 5, Sept 8-19, Oct 5-16, Nov 23-Dec 22.
The whole summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as it has been in
recent years. And after that, 2008 may begin with a very mild winter
and, mid year, a very mild summer. UK is heading for less cold winters
and milder summers, with the seasons becoming more even. It has nothing
whatever to do with the hysteria called global warming - in the southern
hemisphere we are going the other way and heading towards long hot
summers and colder winters, and yet we inhabit the same planet.
The real reason for the seasons change is the Grand Cycle of the Seasons
grinding its slow way forward. There is a reversal about every 4.5 years
and depending on the vagaries of a geographical area a turnaround every
18-20 years. The larger cycle is 36-38 years, could be called the solar
system barycentre reversal, in which sun, moon and planetary cycles
coincide. The whole cycle clicks over on a beat of 10x 18.613 years. So
just as 1974 was exceptionally mild, so 2009/10 will be about the middle
point of these milder winter years, and 2013 will see the return of much
wetter and colder winters, on a par with those in the years 1977- 1979
and 1997. Those years were the last previous very cold winter seasons.
Before those years the coldest were 1945 and 1961-3. Other notably cold
years have been 1814 and 1740, all complying to a cyclic pattern. So, in
many ways one could say this winter will be somewhat on a par with
1933/34, 1963/64, 1966/67, 1970/71, 1975/76, 1980/81, 1990/91.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dublin
May
The first week of May should be cool, dry for the first three days then
showers arriving, and continuing until about 16th. The second and third
weeks may be windy. From 18th-23rd should be dry. May should be cooler
and wetter than normal, but with drier conditions in much of the second
half of the month.
June
The first half of June should be dry, and safe to take holidays from
about 2nd-12th. Although warmer weather may arrive in the first few
days, temperatures may cool again by the 4th. Just like 1970 and 1975,
mid June may bring rogue hailstorms or even snowfalls, and the expected
upward change to summer temperatures may not be felt properly until
about June 21st..
For Ireland, spring of 2008 will be very cool, especially wet in the
second week of March, cool and wet in the first week of April and cool
and dry in the second week. The first half of May and June will be cool
and dry.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Correspondence
Hello,
Do you have any positive recommendations for public spending on
environmental management and the alleviation of human suffering in light
of increasingly powerful and sustained natural disasters? I am
researching crises preparedness and the position of more conservative
voices is valuable. Thank you, Shawn Roske, Ottawa, Canada.
Hello Shawn
1st positive recommendation: Stop all war. All countries defense budget
to go to alleviating poverty, building better hospitals, employing more
teachers, more and less corrupt police and more doctors.
2nd positive recommendation: stop spending dollars on global warming
research. Ask yourself what is worse - having your house bombed and your
children slaughtered or an unusual storm passing through?
(no further letter received)
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Ken
1. You claim that climate can only be affected by changing latitude; not
so, but see later.
2. You also maintain that temperature extremes are moderated by the
insulating atmosphere. This is perfectly true, but it's not a matter of
"cold rushing in from space", but rather heat energy being re-radiated
into space.
3. The sun heats things up and some energy is re-radiated. It's this
heat balance that determines the climate
4. If the atmosphere were to change in some way, the radiation
characteristics would also change, thereby altering the energy balance
and hence the climate; even at the same latitude.
5. It's the possibility of this atmosphere change that is at the root of
all the present controversy. The amount of atmosphere is not changing,
but its composition ?????
6. You dismiss out of hand any possibility that changes may be
occurring, but without any justification that I can see.
7. The claim "the global warming myth is promoted so that big
corporations can buy cheap farming land" is fanciful at best. It's just
an unsubstantiated opinion. These are the comments which prompted my
crack about the flat earth mob; they too are very big on conspiracy
theories.
8. Rainfall determined by the moon ??? Novel concept; but not one I'm
intuitively comfortable with.
Ray
Reply
1. You claim that climate can only be affected by changing latitude; not
so, but see later.
A: Not "only" because ice ages are governed by the Earth/moon /cosmos
moving through dust and gas in the galaxy.
2. You also maintain that temperature extremes are moderated by the
insulating atmosphere. This is perfectly true, but it's not a matter of
"cold rushing in from space", but rather heat energy being re-radiated
into space.
A: So does the air height change at all, in your view? Is there an
"airtide" or not? If you say not, you are contradicting mainstream
science, which admits it daily factors the airtide out. See Australian
Aviators Manual on Google.
3. The sun heats things up and some energy is re-radiated. It's this
heat balance that determines the climate.
A: The sun heats everything on earth. Amount of heat is a function of
distance from equator, which = latitude. So you agree that
climate=latitude.
4. If the atmosphere were to change in some way, the radiation
characteristics would also change, thereby altering the energy balance
and hence the climate; even at the same latitude.
A: Which is why, when atmospheric height changes, weather changes, at
the same latitude
5. It's the possibility of this atmosphere change that is at the root of
all the present controversy. The amount of atmosphere is not changing,
but its composition ?????
A: It is changing all the time, but so incrementally it is not noticed.
The air weighs 5,000,000,000 tons. CO2 is .035% of the atmosphere. The
postulation is that CO2 will become .038%. Even if true, that's a change
of 1 in 30,000. You conveniently forget the staying-the-same of 29,997
parts in 30,000
6. You dismiss out of hand any possibility that changes may be
occurring, but without any justification that I can see.
A: Not so. The poles are always on the move. Natural fluctuation is
occurring. The moon is everchanging in cycles and cycles within cycles.
There are solar cycles and solar/lunar ones.There are Milankovitch
cycles, 3 main ones. There are solar system barycentre effects causing
sun tides. We are moving around the Milky Way around the Celestial Pole.
The galaxy is on the move as well as we move towards Vega.
7. The claim "the global warming myth is promoted so that big
corporations can buy cheap farming land" is fanciful at best. It's just
an unsubstantiated opinion. These are the comments which prompted my
crack about the flat earth mob; they too are very big on conspiracy
theories.
A: Well, it's happening around here. Watch the ethanol debate. More
energy required to produce the stuff than the fuel that emerges. At the
moment it is the subsidies that make it seem attractive. When they are
removed the system will bankrupt. The land is being tied up, wasted when
the farmers are induced to grow corn etc, and when farms are proven to
be unprofitable the land will be bought cheaply from the receivers.
Conspiracy theory? Too right!
8. Rainfall determined by the moon ??? Novel concept; but not one I'm
intuitively comfortable with.
A: If it wasn't in your education you will be suspicious. You will
think it is either unimportant, incorrect or even evil. Fairly
predictable reaction. But we are supposed to be adults, not children
scared of seeing something new for the first time.
Ken
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is now in shops. It has a bright
green cover featuring Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' wonderful
photo of the Lindis Pass . The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia
Almanac is published by Random House Australia and is available in all
Australian bookshops. It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in
nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and released into shops
about a month ago is about natural cycles which account for the major
shifts in climate. The book is an attempt to furnish the reader with
tools for weather prediction, both short and long term. The main cycles
of the moon are described and starting hints for anyone wanting to
predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as how the moon
causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the air is as
much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of different
cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected system
that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather role.
The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ at $34. ISBN
1-86941-852-2. Both the Predict Weather Almanac 2007 and The Lunar Code
are slightly cheaper at The Warehouse.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or
outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information printed here.
This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely
distributed to interested parties provided that the source is
acknowledged; except not for purposes of commercial gain unless
authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) PWL 2007
CONTACT DETAILS
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e-mail: enqui-@predictweather.com
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