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Weather ezine July 3, 2007
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weatherman
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Jul 03, 2007 17:48 PDT
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE July 3, 2007
CURRENT MOON
GENERAL
COMING FOR NZ
DECLINATION NOTES
GLOBAL MUSING
AUSTRALIA
DUBLIN
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Current Moon
30th: southern declination
1st: full moon
6th: crossing equator
8th: last quarter
10th: perigee #12
13th: northern declination
General
Southern declination brings further cold snaps and the proximity of full
moon may serve snow for some during daylight hours. Aphelion occurs in
the first week of July which adds a further cold factor. The next
southern dec is on July 27th.
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Coming for NZ
This month should be slightly drier than average for both islands. For
the N Is. the driest time could be 9th- 15th, and the wettest may be in
the first week and 16th-28th. For the S Is., the driest period could be
around the 8th-14th and the wettest in the first and fourth weeks.
Whilst most parts of the country should be drier than average,
exceptions likely to be wetter than the norm may be BoP, Waikato, Taupo,
NP to Levin, Masterton and Wellington, and in the S Is, Motueka and
Dunedin.
Total sunshine hours in July should be less than average for the North
Island and average for the South Island. Whangarei and Auckland should
be quite warmer than average but many other regions only slightly above
average. The month should be sunny for Waikato and may break sunshine
records in Wellington (similar to July 1959 and 1982). Dry and frosty
conditions may stall spring growth and farmers might have to consider
other feed options during calving and lambing. Grass may still be
adequate but feed management may require caution. Weather on the
mountains could produce a shallow snow pack resulting in an avalanche
risk later. The first week of July brings a wintery blast across the
country easing back slightly in the second week. In the North Island,
Tongariro National Park should receive good snowfalls in all 3
snowfields, and central North Island can expect road closures due to
snow and ice continuing until after 4th, particularly the Desert Road.
Snowfalls at Egmont and a light dusting for Stratford and eastern hill
country around 4th may not last long because of an incoming warmer
northerly airflow.
In the South Island, the first week brings heavy snowfalls and sleet to
Dunedin and other parts of Otago and Southland, closing off many inland
areas. Snow could reach as far north as Christchurch and the Port
Hills. By the end of the first week snow should reach the low levels of
the south and east of the South Island, with snow widespread across
inland Otago and Southland, including Queenstown. By 2nd, freezing
North Island temperatures may bring ice and fog to roads. The east and
southern regions of the South Island may see occasional sleet and
showers. The third week of the month brings light relief with only
occasional snowfalls and light winds to Canterbury. Although snow is
expected down to 300m in Westland and Fiordland by 24th, conditions are
predominantly dry, and the North Island snowfields may have difficulty
remaining open. Whakapapa, Turoa and Tukino may need more snow to
operate and by 26th-27th only limited skiing conditions may be
available.
South winds and unsettled conditions in the last few days of the month
may bring relief to ski operations in the North Island. New snow is
expected overnight around 29th, at Whakapapa (perhaps 10-15cm), and by
30th limited skiing may be possible. By the 31st however, snow and ice
is likely to close the Desert Road once again as another wintery blast
flows up from the south. New snows are likely at Turoa brought by
strong southeasterlies, which brought blizzard-like conditions to mid
Canterbury the day before and scattered snowfalls to Southland.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st, 4th-6th, 16th-17th, 19th-20th in the north,
22nd-29th (heavier 4th, 16th, 22nd, 25th, 29th). Western, Central North
Is: 1st, 4th-6th, 16th-29th (heavier 6th, 16th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Taupo: 1st, 4th-7th, 16th, 19th, 22nd-30th(heavier 6th, 22nd, 25th,
29th). Gisborne, HB: 1st, 4th-10th, 16th, 22nd-26th, 28th-29th.(heavier
6th, 22nd, 29th) Lower North Is: 1st, 4th-9th, 16th, 21st-31st (heavier
6th, 22nd, 26th, 29th). Nelson and Marlborough: 1st, 5th-7th, 14th-16th,
22nd-23rd, (heavier 5th, 16th, 22nd)
Canterbury: 1st-2nd, 5th-6th, 14th-16th, 22nd-25th, 29th-31st, (heavier
22nd, 30th)
Otago: 1st-3rd, 5th-6th, 14th-17th,19th, 20th-21st, 27th-28th (heavier
5th, 15th)
Dunedin: 1st-2nd, 5th-8th, 14th-16th, 21st, 24th-31st, (heavier 1st,
5th)
Southland: 1st-3rd, 5th-9th, 12th, 14th-21st, 28th-31st, (heavier 5th,
17th) Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 1st, 5th-7th, 13th-23rd,
27th-28th(heavier 5th, 11th, 15th,18th, 22nd, 28th)
JULY
1st-3rd: A very cold southerly airstream spreads onto NZ. Good
snowfalls are expected in all 3 snowfields at Tongariro National Park.
Heavy snow and sleet may besiege Dunedin and other parts of Otago. By
2nd, Central NI roads closed because of snow and ice. Possible hail
storm in Waikato.
4th-11th: Moist NE’s affect Northland and Auckland, a depression lies in
the mid Tasman and an anticyclone extends a ridge over the remainder of
the country. Cold wintery blast in SI moves N onto central NI. Desert
Road may have to close. Snowfalls on Egmont and light snow dusting at
Stratford and E hill country. In NI falls not expected to last but
followed by wet and warmer northerly airflows. On about the 6th, the
depression moves onto the SI, a trough lies over NZ on the 7th and SW’s
follow as it passes to the E. A large anticyclone intensifies as it
moves towards Southland on the 10th with central pressures possibly
reaching 1040hPa. A large anticyclone covers the whole of NZ by the
11th.
12th-18th: Warmer temperatures than usual. A large anticyclone lasts
until the 14th. Warm moist N’s predominate over the next few days as
the anticyclone moves E and a trough of low pressure moves towards the
country from the Tasman Sea. By 15th freezing central NI temperatures
bring ice and fog to roads. A depression which develops within the
trough moves over Southland by the 16th followed by disturbed W’s which
may cover the country.
20th-26th: A depression in the Tasman Sea moves slowly E and may deepen
during the next few days. Another depression may form just E of the NI
about the 23rd. From the 22nd, moist N’s should affect the NI while
unsettled easterly conditions cover the S and E of the SI.
27th-31st: Both centres of a depression pass to the E of the country by
the 27th, however a trough remains over the country. A number of other
depressions within the trough moves over NZ until the 31st. Unsettled
southerly conditions prevail from the 27th to the 1st of August,
interrupted briefly on the 28th and 29th when NW’s flow over the NI
ahead of a cold front. By 29th fog may develop at Hamilton and
Wellington airports. New snow at Whakapapa overnight (perhaps 10-15cm).
By 30th Whakapapa may open for limited skiing. Valley T Bar and Cinder
Track Platter lifts operating. Centennial Chair Lift and Waterfall
Express Quad operating for access only. Turoa also open with Giant
Chairlift skiable to mid-station and Alpine 31st, but ice and snow may
close Desert Road.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around Full
moon (1st and 30th), perigee(10th), New moon (15th), and apogee(22nd)
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Southern Hawkes Bay
The drought broke with first good rains on 12 June. The last drought was
1997 and before that 1987/88, true to the lunar pattern that suggests
droughts can be expected in the same district every 9 years.
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Declination notes
The southern declination is back. The cold snaps will repeat every time
it comes around again. Simply, when the moon is in the south, cold
southerlies are generated, so in winter it is southern declination dates
that mainly concern those who either want it like ski operators or don't
want it because of the onset of snow and frost and the damage that does
on a farm.
The midwinter S dec coincides with full moon, although they are separate
cycles. Last year S decs occurred on June 12th, July 10th, August 6th
and September 3rd. They were the main snow event days.
In 2007 southern declination dates are February 13th, March 13th, April
9th, May 6th, June 2nd and 30th, July 27th, August 23rd, September 20th,
October 17th, November 13th and December 10th. The below dates may bring
increased cold periods in the winter of 2007.
May 8-14 - (S dec=6th)
May 27-30 - (full moon+Sdec of June 1st/2nd)
June 6-8 - (S dec =2nd will kick things off. June 4th-20th Mercury in
cold position(as it was 2006 12th-24th) June 12-22 - (New moon+perigee#9
closest for year) June 26-30 - (S dec =30th) July 10 - (perigee #12)
July 13-15 - (new moon+N dec) July 30-8 Aug - (S dec =July 27th) Aug
23-24 - (S dec =23rd) Aug 30-31 - (perigee #10) Sept 29-1 Oct - (full
moon+perigee #6) Oct 7-10 - (new moon) Oct 23-24 - (S dec =17th) Nov
10-13 - (S dec+new moon)
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Further Snow report
NZ
The first half of July sees more good snowfalls in southern parts,
followed by a warmer third week. In the North Island, the first week
sees light snow on the central NI skifields, but the second week is
mainly overcast, the gray sky threatening but not delivering rain or
snow. Every day from July 20th-August 11th should see subzero minimums
in Queenstown, with the heaviest frosts around the first week of August.
However most days in this interval should stay dry. The third week of
July sees good snowfalls on the central plateau, with no sunny skies
until the beginning of August.
In the SI, precipitation comes again around mid August but is not
longlasting, and another dry spell, lasting about a month, may stretch
from 18 August to 18 September. During this time it could be cold enough
for snow machines, but after 18 September temperatures will probably
rise too quickly to be able to artifically extend the season. In the NI,
August should be mainly dry, although cold, but the first week of
September sees snow falling in the ranges and summits of skifields,
whilst rain may quickly wash away snow at lower levels.
All in all, a good season for colder temperatures but an average season
for natural snow, which is mainly expected to come in June, July and mid
August. Drier weather should prevail at other times.
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Australia
Snow reports are available for Mt Buller, Perisher, Thredbo. Please
email ke-@weatherman.co.nz for details. Good snow is expected right
through to November, with the last fall of the year around Xmas Day.
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Remembering Augie
Augie was chief meteorologist and weather presenter for 3 years at TV3,
from 1999 to 2002. A regular public speaker, Augie was also one of the
country's most ardent global warming and climate change skeptics. The
family had gone to Melbourne where his daughter was living, and all
together had celebrated his 67th birthday and the Auer's 35th wedding
anniversary. Walking back to their Melbourne hotel Augie had suffered a
massive and fatal heart attack. The funeral service was at the Sacred
Heart Church, where Augie and family had been congregation members. With
a soundtrack of Bic Ringa singing Listening For The Weather in the
background, photos of family milestones were displayed in a slideshow on
the front wall beside the altar. Tributes came from Augie's sons and
daughter, former member of Metservice Rod Steiner, Hilary Barry of TV3
and Terry Dunleavy for the Climate Science Coalition. Clint Brown was a
pallbearer and a TV3 film crew was there. Terry Dunleavy praised the
contribution to the skeptics' cause that Augie had made.
Augie had an infectious sense of humour and the gift of commonsense. He
liked to amuse audiences with his 'kitchen science'. Give a platform to
a mild-mannered honest and conscientious top scientist who already has
the public ear, allow him to speak his mind and watch former colleagues
fearful for their jobs desert and isolate him, and you get Augie. But he
was unfazed and held no grudges. Good science was Augie's lifelong
quest, and he was sad that entrepreneurs like Al Gore were wrecking a
century of carefully built integrity. In the climate debate Augie had
rolled back his shirtsleeves and waded in, just as he had done at the
Metservice and as a TV weather presenter. He tolerated public speaking,
but mostly enjoyed pottering about with wife Susan in their Birkenhead
garden. It is not generally known that Augie and Sue ran a Christian
home and frequently gave live-in sanctuary to unmarried mothers. Their
door was always open for someone in need of temporary shelter. Augie and
I travelled together to gigs around the country. We emailed a lot. We
were in general agreement about sun and moon influences although Augie
was more in the sun's camp. They were small differences in points of
debate and we both benefited from the ongoing discussion, always
respectful. We both agreed on the importance of cycles. He was unique. I
shall miss Augie's knowledge and wisdom. He was a good listener, a good
teacher, and overall a fine huiman being.
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Global Musing
Suppose you were an idiot.
And suppose you were a Member of Parliament....
But then I repeat myself.
----Mark Twain
Sealevels
Sea-levels are never far from the news, as new claims emerge that the
ocean is rising and drowning us. As usual it is a fraud. Coastal erosion
at Oamaru has been topical, with fresh warnings that erosion as
witnessed by less sand on a beach is caused by a higher sea. Actually
the opposite is the case. If the sea rises a little in height, it
attacks but the attack is not vigorous. There is more sand deposited on
the beach, higher, and on top of previous land. If the sea goes down it
is eating away at the old equilibrium level. There is a much larger
redistribution of sand as sand is taken away by the small tides. Often
one can see a previous beach, perhaps 20-30 cm above a current beach. It
is more common that erosion is caused by a falling sea level than a
rising one. Constant wave action battering a cliff-face is something
else and should not be confused with sea-levels. The sea level was
indeed rising, from 1850 to 1930-40 at a rate of 1 millimeter per year.
Holland has been subsiding for many millions of years; and Sweden, after
the last Ice Age, was uplifted. Balancing those gives a closer figure of
1.1mm. But it ended in 1940. In 1970 satellite altimetry became
available and in that year in Europe the sea fell about 20 cm, for
reasons probably of evaporation. Satellite altimetry shows the water,
not just at the coasts but in the whole of the ocean. From 1992 to 2002,
the graph of the sea level showed variability along a straight line, but
absolutely no trend whatsoever. The spikes show a very rapid rise, but
in half a year falling back again. To have a sea-level rise you need a
trend. In 2003, the same data set, which in the IPCC's publications was
a straight line, suddenly changed, and showed a very strong line of
uplift, 2.3 mm per year, the same as from tide gauge data. It looked as
though the IPCC had recorded something; but they hadn't recorded
anything. It was the original which they had suddenly twisted up,
because they entered a “correction factor,” taken from tide gauges. When
Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner, head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics
department at Stockholm University in Sweden. accused the IPCC at the
Academy of Sciences in Moscow of making up evidence, they answered that
they had to do it, because otherwise they would not have gotten any
trend! Physics has been replaced by politics. No sea has really gone
sustainably higher than the 1mm increase recorded between 1930-1970. But
to justify climate change computer modeling has invented a different
story. On Tuvalu there was a Japanese pineapple industry which
subtracted too much fresh water from the island. The water magazine was
destroyed, and sea water replaced it. The local people were upset but
then it was easier to say, “No, no! It's the global sea level rising!”
The inhabitants of Tegua, an island to the north of Fiji said they had
to evacuate it because the sea was rising. But the tide-gauge record
showed no such increase. The IPCC gets small island nations worrying
that they're going to be flooded tomorrow so they can attract support
and money from industrial countries. Venice, often shown in news stories
to portray rising water levels, is slowly subsiding because of the
delta. The rate has been constant over time. A rising sea level would
immediately accelerate the flooding and would be so simple to record.
One only has to look at the 300-year record: In the 20th Century it was
going up and down around the subsidence rate. In 1970 there should have
been acceleration but instead the rise almost finished, proving the
opposite. If one goes around the globe, there is no sea level rise to be
found. But environmentalists need the rise because without it there is
no death threat.
The supposed rise only exists in computer modeling. Alarmists like Al
Gore suggest a 20m or even a 60m sea-level rise. No limit has been put
on this rise because no cycles are considered, only a unidirectional
shift. Never mind where the extra water will come from to raise the sea.
What has been missed in the computer models is that an averagely much
higher sea would eventually increase the radius of the earth which would
then slow down the planet’s rotation. You have it in figure-skating:
when they rotate very fast the arms are close to the body; and then when
they increase the radius by putting out their arms they tend to stop. Is
earth yet spinning slower? A decrease in the planet's rotation would
lengthen each day and night but shorten the number of days of the year.
Time itself would change. A slower earth means a shorter year. All
digital clocks would have to be readjusted and mechanical timekeepers
completely rebuilt. As seas kept on rising, and rising, time would keep
slowing. The day would come that all land will be covered by water,
Earth will have slowed and stopped turning and a day and night will be
each six months long. It would no longer be time as we know it. It will
no longer be Earth, just Sea.
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Air miles
If there were no humans on the planet, presumably cows would still burp
and breathe out CO2. Rotting vegetation would still emit methane. It is
unlikely that stock and compost only emit gases to impress humans.
Similarly there were skies before people. Reminding ourselves that a
plane is soon gone and the atmosphere keeps replenishing and cleansing
itself every hour, we may ask, does an aeroplane pollute the atmosphere?
Well, the reader is invited to consider the size of one plane vs the
size of the air. The plane is very tiny. So tiny and inconsequential,
and so few in number and far between that when you are in the sky and
you look out of the window, with naked-eye vision that extends hundreds
of miles into the distant horizon, you cannot even see another plane
anywhere. The Earth's atmosphere is about 300 miles (480 km) thick, but
most of the atmosphere (about 80%) is within 10 miles (16 km) of the
surface of the Earth. There is no exact place where the atmosphere ends;
it just gets thinner and thinner, until it merges with outer space. By
weight, the atmosphere weighs about 5 thousand million, million tonnes.
A Boeing 747 weighs 836,000 pds, or about 340 tonnes. 340 compared to 5
billion million is a factor of about 1 in 5x10 (14) by weight. By
volume? We know that the volume of a Sphere according to our maths text
books is 1.25 times pi, times radius cubed. So take the mean radius of
the earth and plug it into our equation. We get a rough volume of
1016366026179 cubic Km. Mostly everyone agrees that the atmosphere more
or less ends at a height on 100 Km. Of course the pressure and
concentration is by no means uniform and we get a higher concentration
of Oxygen on the surface compared to the higher altitudes, but we have
to have a figure we can work with. So if the atmosphere only goes 100Km
up then that is like extending the radius of the earth an extra 100Km.
If we do this and plug it into our equation we get a rough volume of
1064966254007 cubic Km for the earth and its atmosphere combined. Taking
away our first volume should leave us with a fairly good idea of what
the volume of the atmosphere is. 1,064,966,254,007 - 1,016,366,026,179 =
48,600,227,828 cubic Km, let's say 48 billion cu km which is 4 x 10(18)
cu m. One plane is about 10,000 cu m. That means the ratio of one plane
to the air in volume is again about 1 in 4 x 10(14), not far from the
ratio by weight of one plane to the air it flies in. How long is State
Highway One? About 2000km. How wide? About 20m. Area? 40,000 sq km, some
4000000000000000 sq cm. Imagine the size of a snail. About 5cm x 1cm =
5sq cm. One snail is about 5 x 10 (14) the size of State Highway One,
remarkably comparable to one plane and its flyable air space. It means
one plane flying through the air is very roughly equivalent in size to a
snail crawling its way down State Highway One. The snail slime produced
by one snail may therefore be proportional to the size of an air-mile
carbon footprint made by one plane. We are now required to pay a penalty
for that. Why? To save the planet. Will the snail's slime wreck the
planet? By the politicians' yardstick, yes. So to offset a slime
catastrophe should we create slime sinks? For every snail that leaves a
mark a slime credit could be purchased, with slime credit futures traded
on Wall St. Countries with fewer snails could profit by selling their
quota. It is as daft as air-miles, but - air miles are just as slimy.
Never mind that it makes no commonsense. Politicians have decided it, so
it must be so.
The late Augie Auer and I had a good laugh about air-miles when we
traveled to and from Ashburton for the Great Debate fundraiser in April
of last year. I pledged to plant yet another tree and replace another 9
lightbulbs to offset the carbon cost of the trip. Augie's plan was to
decide to twice drive to the supermarket then announce a change of mind,
thus saving double the emissions. Our actions would change the climate
for a grateful world. It is not unlike the bargain-promising ads that
say by shopping at store X you can save several hundred dollars. But you
haven't saved anything, or whoopee, you could take a cruise. You just
haven't spent it. Air miles are like that. The plane was going to go to
a destination with or without you. Even if we weren't flying to
Ashburton, we'd be walking and puffing extra CO2 into the air. Are
people ever going to stay at home? Of course not for we are a nation of
travelers (that’s how we got here in the first place), anymore than the
snails are going to pause, well, more than they do already, to
reconsider. Viewed from space a plane and a snail are both equally
invisible. Let's see the air-mile issue for what it really is - a
greenie European mechanism to protect local industries, simply by making
imports unprofitable. We should be redirecting our energies. We need
diplomats loyal to NZ exporters who can attack those who wish to apply
these sanctions. Politicians will win votes and respect if they remove
the green from their eyes and stop pulling wool over ours.
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About tree planting
Imagine if every person planted a tree, that's 7 billion more trees in
the world. Many misguided feel-good do-gooders have heeded this call to
put a sapling in the ground as a carbon credit, doing their bit for the
environment. Has this grand arborial effort made any difference to the
climate? If so no one has reported it. NIWA has been strangely silent,
again. Little wonder. Our human species is one of the smallest in number
on the whole planet. 7 billion is very small. There are estimated to be
more cats and more dogs. The whole population of the world would fit
into the North Island with about 3m by 3m of space around each of them.
And if every man, woman and child who today populate the globe was
spread out on the land surface, which itself is only about 27% of the
earth's surface, each human would have 140 sq miles to his or herself,
about the size of Malta or Barbados. So ask yourself, would one extra
tree alter Malta's or Barbados's climate?
How about two extra trees? If one person planted 100 extra trees on
Malta it would barely cover a football field and make no difference at
all to the area';s weather patterns.
Don't fall for their lies. Stop planting trees. You'll only damage to
your back. But why trees? Why not food? Surely putting carbon into what
can be eaten is just as good for the planet, and can feed people at the
same time. One wonders why all the trees in a tree-lined street by law
are not all fruit trees. Taking this a step further, why are farmers not
insisting that the carbon be retained in their fields, thereby ensuring
better production and more returns to the farmer rather than the
government. If governments are at all serious about carbon sinks, then
farmers should have access to cheaper nutrients and subsidies for
ferilisers etc. But we all know it is NOT about putting carbon into the
ground, nor is it about feeding the poor. It is not about love of
humanity or the planet, it is about money. The tree-planting madness is
about carbon credits which translates into the potential for local
taxation, based on an international credit currency that is measured in
acreage.
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----
The Eskimos
We hear a lot about how western civilisation is wrecking the traditional
lives of those who live in the frozen north. We are told due to global
warming caused by the west, the permafrost is disappearing also the
polar bears and seals, but especially the snow and with it the old ways,
which means the end of the indigenous culture. At risk are the Inuit
peoples, who used to be called Eskimos when I was at school. Perhaps it
is just a case of selective reporting. Journalists go there to collect
stories. They ask questions like: Is your old way of life disappearing?
(Yes) Does this make you sad? (Yes) Is industrialisation to blame?(Yes).
The same mistake was made by Thor Heyerdahl when he wafted through the
Pacific on a leaky raft that finally disintegrated from rot, to prove it
may have been done that way. Wherever he went Heyerdahl, the author,
began offering money for stories.To surprise that was his alone he found
many storytellers on every island.
Of course it is a real issue for the Inuit, the older ones, but it is
just the same issue for elderly inhabitants of any place who feel the
onset of age and loss of their quality of life. But "Inuti losing their
quality of life" because a trifle 32% increase in a lousy greenhouse
gas? Just quietly, man's activities, the same ones that caused that 32%
increase, gave Inuits an increase in quality of life as never seen
before in their entire history. Besides the advent of life-saving
medicines, they got from the corrupt and callous white men oil for their
heating so no more bear and seal grease burning inside igloos, and
hello, many respiratory ailments went away. Inuits have switched from
harpoons and spears to Winchester .44s and now Modelt 70s, not to
mention 370 Weatherby Magnums that are good for bear hunting. They long
ago gave up raw leather kayaks and paddles for aluminum and plastic
resin botorboats and outboard engines. They stopped wandering around
looking for game on foot, or riding dog-driven sleds. Now they own
snowcats and snowmobiles. They call with their SSB radios for supplies
being hauled monthly by airplanes, instead of sending messengers once a
year in an expedition through ice and blizzards. They have internet,
trade-me sites and barometric weather services that mean the 28
different words for snow can be put to better use for all. So how much
of their quality of life are eskimos losing because of a global warming
that has not happened? Did they lose their quality of life during the
1930s that were as warm as today? Or during the Medieval Warming Period?
Once again, progress comes up against nostalgia and pollution with
climate.
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Selling the weather
The documentary of this name shown recently on Sky TV had some good
points to make. A few decades ago the Vietnam war folded, along with,
due to Watergate, Nixon's reign as president. The Berlin Wall ceased to
be, Soviet Russia dissolved and went democratic. The Americans and
Russians began co-operating in space, and in trade and migration. With
the passing of the Cold War, another enemy was needed. At around the
same time, weather, at first an afterthought that was tacked onto the
end of news programmes, was discovered capable of delivering high TV
ratings, especially extreme weather in someone else's back yard, and all
the better if some human-suffering footage was available. Someone
elses's weather came of age. When Hurricane Floyd was imminent, a
million cars created a huge traffic jam leaving town. Coming the other
way the only traffic consisted of hordes of news reporters. When Floyd
failed to turn up the reporters all packed up and headed north, where
they at last caught some reel action. Re-inventing weather as public
enemy number one, news reporters have become war correspondents. With
weather at number one in the ratings, global warming has an easy ride.
Headlines are not made about a peaceful countryside but of one at war.
What better enemy than "Mother" Nature. The adversorial factor makes for
better television with one-sided reporting, when we denied balance. That
was already known from westerns, but got forgotten and had to be
relearned in Vietnam, The Falklands, Afghanistan, The Gulf and IIraq. So
the stories of good rains and the golden calm that comes after a storm
ends up on the cutting room floor, along with the views of skeptics. In
the global warming story, completely cut out is anything about the good
that more warmth can bring.
Alongside reality TV, historical dramas and reruns of archived footage
of World War II, now "Climate change" is portrayed as some invading army
that earth is "defending" itself against. Nature has apparently declared
war on us and on itself, and we must save it from itself. Despite the
conflict Mother Nature has been bringing upon us, quite amazingly the
"failure" to eliminate Earth has existed constantly for about 4.5
billion years, not just beginning since Al Gore's movie. The earth has
been almost completely frozen, ice-free and everything in between. But
all through the billions of years it has been saving its real firepower,
CO2, until two decades ago. Now, in the 11th hour, it has unleashed this
almighty catastrophic threat. But it has met its match. It is we humans
who are saying no, no you don't. Enough is enough. You are NOT going to
destroy all that we hold dear - the rivers and lakes, the sunsets, the
beaches and the crystal nights over the sparkling sea. We, united in our
tree-planting and lightbulb changing (not to mention walking to the
shops), will not let you. Take that, Mother N. Do your worst.
It is very childish and pathetic if we really need some perceived threat
to feel okay about ourselves. It doesn't say much for a Master Race,
when most other species seem able to lay in the sun in peaceful
co-existence with others of the same species and relax between feeds,
but that seems something beyond our capabilities. We cannot solely blame
the media, as the public will only buy what it wants and the media will
only print what it can sell. And it seems newspapers simply are not
going to print anything that is either NOT about global warming or is
about the fallacy of it. They would probably claim that to deny GW is to
deny the right to dramatic entertainment. But somewhere in that mess of
capitalistic opportunity in a free world is the responsibility towards
promoting truth. Values like honesty used to be the domain of churches,
but God's spokespeople were always the local dealers in fear. Now they
are among the worst Armageddon-promoters.
No one will bail us out. It is up to us. If the Powers want to show
weather as war footage, we have to treat the players as war-zone journo
would-be heroes. There will always be wars and people willing to declare
them and fight in them. There will always be idiots wanting to go and
stand in the line of fire taking photos, taking for granted that we are
interested. But we neither have to admire them nor line up to see the
gruesome results. If the public switched off they soon would also.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Website upgrade
I apologise to clients who have been trying to access predictions for
2008 and beyond. The website is undergoing a facelift and
reconstruction, with many exciting new features. Soon readers will be
able to gain predictions for several years ahead if required. Until
then, forecasts are being generated manually by me and staff. Please
email us at enqui-@predictweather.com if you have a request.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If
we take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a
year we have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the
average-perigee distance for the year. Looking at a series of these we
can take note that about every 4.3 years comes a year when the moon is
averagely closer, called a closeperigee year. 2007 is such a year.
Perigee changes hemispheres to an 8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is
closer to the N hemisphere for about 3 years then drifts south, spending
1-2 years around the equator, then further south to lie closer to the
southern hemisphere for 3 years before beginning the return journey.
Closeperigee years occur when the moon is passing the equator, as you
would expect because the earth bulges into space more at the equator and
so is going to be generally slightly closer to the moon. The northern
hemisphere can expect a big hurricane event in late October. On the
other hand Australia and parts of NZ should experience extra-high
temperatures from late September to November. Spring and early summer
should be warmer than mid and late summer. Next January, February and
March should be mild, not extra hot. By 2008, perigee will have shifted
to the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point between July
2008-December 2008.
This year may be the last for seriously destructive events until 2011,
2015 and 2020.
July 10th P#12 may mostly affect the beginning of the third week of the
month.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some southern places
but leave others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect the days
following.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
MOON IN JULY
1st: Full moon
6th: Crossing Equator
8th: Last Quarter
10th: Perigee #12
13th: Northern Declination
15th: New Moon
20th: Crossing Equator
22nd: Apogee
22nd: 1st Quarter
27th: Southern Declination
30th: Full Moon
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AUSTRALIA REGIONS
In the last weeks of May and the beginning of June I was lucky enough
for three major TV channels in Australia to take an interest in my work
and fly me over their regions, including dams, farms and skifields,
making doco clips for evening news items. Below are some recent
interview transcripts.
2UE Sydney, 30 June 2007, Interview Breakfast Hosts George and Paul SAT
08:15 A week ago, they were in the grip of one of the worst droughts
they had ever faced. But just this week, Goulburn residents were
bracing themselves for a second night of storms, which have filled their
empty dams. It has now recorded wettest June since 1997, with more than
170mm falling so far this month. Just two weeks ago, Sydney, the Central
Coast, Newcastle and the Hunter Valley were all experiencing above
average rainfall too.
But, it hasn’t just been limited to NSW. The first wave of
drought-busting rains have been sweeping across Victoria, bringing
severe weather alerts. Is it typical that we get "nothing for months and
months, then we get a heavy fall”? And, has the drought finally broken?
What’s going on? Joining us on the line to share his thoughts is Ken
Ring, Long Range Weather Forecaster.
Questions…
1. Major flood warnings exist for the Mitchell River, Avon, Macalister
and Thomson River in Victoria. Large towns like Sale and Bairnsdale are
under threat from flooding rivers and other communities are at greater
risk of flooding from the Gippsland Lakes. We hear this is due to the
weather pattern changing from El Nino to La Nina. Tell us about El Nino
and La Nina. What is the difference between the two?
Both are fairly meaningless and after the fact. After a dry period they
say oh that was an El Nino, or if it wasn’t all that dry they say it WAS
an El Nino but it was a fizzer. I was at the Australian Dairy Conference
up in Shepparton earlier in the year and a question came from the floor
directed at someone from the CSIRO and the question was, is this a La
Nina year? And the answer from the meteorologist was, we don’t call on
it until the year is over. That’s why you don’t hear much talk about El
Nino or La Nina at the moment, they’re still trying to figure it out.
Plenty of rabbiting on about El Nino when the drought was on of course,
and when you go to Google and write "El Nino List Australia" you get all
sorts of different lists, because not every State has had a drought at
the same time throughout Australia’s history. The correct term they
should all be looking at is the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI, which
is what happens to the ocean temperatures, because there’s sometimes a
hotter Darwin and a cooler Tahiti which means the ocean is slightly
higher at one end due to expansion, and so it’s just like tipping a
saucepan, the water flows one way, then it reverses and the water flows
the other way, and the winds follow suit. This reversal of currents is
because Indonesia being near the equator heats the water up then colder
water around Brazil, coming off the S Pole cools it down again. This
reversal occurs about every 3-5 years. You get two every 9 years. And
every 9 years a drought repeats at the same location. This is tied to
the orbiting of the moon and the way it changes hemispheres according to
what is known as the declination cycle, and these figures are exactly
moon orbit figures. Almost anything to do with the oceans is governed by
the moon, and as so much weather comes from ocean movements
meteorologists are going to have to start looking at the moon sooner or
later.
2. You forecast that the drought would most likely break around March /
April time. Do you think the drought has now officially broken? Yes,
maybe I was a bit early. Although some places did get a lot of rain in
May, for instance the third week in May across NSW and especially heavy
rain in Bourke.(on 18th they got 72mm in one day).
3. Tell us what your forecast is for Victoria and NSW – will we be
receiving rainfall now for a long time?
June was always going to be the heaviest rain month of the year for both
States. For NSW July is going to be wet again but not AS wet as June,
and August is going to be wet in the far SE, Snowy Mountains, and around
the N coast and Richmond Ranges. Then Sept and Oct will be dry months,
with more rain again in Nov and Dec. But VIC is only going to be wet for
Gippslands in July, and Aug is going to be fairly dry, and Sept will be
wet for S Riverina and Apollo, and Oct and Nov wet in central, S and E
districts, but Dec a dry month again.
4. What’s involved in your long range weather forecasting?
I’m using the moon mainly, some looking at sunspots, and some noticing
of what the planets are doing, especially the large gas giants like
Jupiter and Saturn. I’m looking to see what position the moon is in the
sky on any given day, and what the weather was doing on the LAST day in
the past that it was in that same sky position, and then bringing that
old forecast report forward saying the same weather is more than likely
to repeat.
5. More rain is forecast to fall over the Goulburn over the coming days
– and areas of the town have been underwater and a number of roads
across the district had been cut off by flash flooding. Are we in for
more floods across Sydney and NSW?
Over Goulburn I think there will be some rain Sunday till Tuesday, maybe
9 or 10mm, then a couple of dry days then more rain from next Friday
onwards for about 10 days but not big downpours, and altogether about
30mm over the 10 days. There’ll be about 15mm around the new moon of
15th but whether or not flooding happens depends a lot on riverbank
management and the maintenance of stopbanks, and so you’re to some
extent talking about local council and civil defence preparedness.. I
can only comment on the potential for heavy rain occurring at the same
time as high river levels. Then there’ll be some more in Goulburn in the
last week of July, maybe another 10mm and there may be some flooding
around the full moon at the end of August
6. What is causing the flooding in the first place, and why the change
from drought?
Well, in the first place the floods have come because the heavy rain has
coincided with new and full moons, which mean the rivers are already
high from king tides, and also the day the moon has been closest to
Earth for the month, like June 13th. And why the change from drought,
well if you’re asking why do we always get heavy rain after a drought
it’s a bit like saying why does day always follow night, or why do the
cold winds in Antarctica all come from the north? Well, in the case of
the drought and rains, it’s the rain that defines the end of the
drought. People never say, amazing, we’ve been getting these rains and
floods for a couple of years now and yet we’re still in drought. And in
the case of Antarctica, all the winds hot and cold, come from the north
because there simply isn't any south direction. So after a devastating
drought that we have come through, which is a 36-yr cycle of the really
big ones and which is why people forget the last one, it takes a flood
to be of sufficient distraction for people to say the drought must be
over. In other words maybe the psychology of it is that we require a new
extreme weather pattern like a nasty flood to stop thinking about a
previous nasty situation like a drought.
7. Finally, Sydney for July?
Colder now, a few fine days then more rain 9-10 July, goes cold again
about 14th, rain 18-21, 24-30.
ends
-------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------
Sydney, 21 June 2007,TV 6.00 News
1. You predicted rightly heavy rainfalls for June - what is expected
for the rest of June and July - for Sydney?
You can expect more rain out of this system from 22nd - 27 June. Then
you're back into the winter weather again first days of July and a low
will come out of the Bight and affect E NSW between July 9-10th. More
rain 22-27 So at the end of June, colder with chance of more in the
first few days of July, then 9-10 July, goes cold again about 14th, rain
18-21, 24-30
-----------------------------
2. What about rainfall in coastal areas - storm-battered Hunter
region - for our farmers inland?
More rain in the Hunter possible in first 4 days of July, FM so rivers
may come up again, also around 15th in Hunter which is the NM
------------------------------
3. What is the general trend for the rest of the year?
Rest of year: June wettest,
July wet but not as bad as June,
Aug only wet in one or two downpours, floods poss Aug 12(NM) and 27(FM)
Sept and Oct dry, floods possible Oct 25(P) Nov and Dec wet, floods
possible Dec 16 and 22(P)
-----------------------------
4. Any follow up wild weather predicted for the Sydney/coastal
reagion?
24-30 July may be a repeat in intensity of what we've had recently in
Sydney. Often extreme weather repeats a month later, and 24-30 will be
about one month from now, a "moon" cycle, e.g June's rain was heavier
on 9/10 and 15-19. May's rain was almost exactly a month earlier, on
10/11 and 18/19
---------------------------
5. Why have we had this onslaught of East Coast lows?
I think there's a cycle going on, influenced a lot by the big planets
the nastiest which is Jupiter and to some extent Saturn.
An astrologer would say Jup+Sat (trine)kicked the winter off in 2007 but
it is petering off now (trine, every 6 yrs, last time 2001 and very wet
May then too). The perspective is that the planets work together with
the moon, moon being closest In 2008 (Jup/Sat sesquare 135) it should
bring heavy rain all of June then again in Aug through to mid Sept In
2009 (Jup/Nep conj,) it'll bring a big flood in the 3rd week of June On
2010 (Jup/Sat opp) May should be wet and stormy up till the first week
of June, then there'll be a breather in June, then July wet kicks in
again till mid Aug.
2010 will be a much colder winter.
So the NEXT 2 Junes are going to be wet, and on either side of June in
2010
--------------------------------
6. You saw our draught conditions first-hand - what are your
predictions for our farmers - will they get follow-up rain?
There is no indication the rain will suddenly revert back to drought.
1975 and 1991 are the previous highest years of June rainfall for
Sydney. June 2007 has so far served about 500mm to the region. This
cycle(of rain amounts) is 32 years and the half-cycle of 16 years, which
relate to astrological patterns, mostly the moon. July again shows a
cycle of a repeat of about 100-150mm, which is may be expected for July.
The same previous cycles show that August totals may only be about 50mm
in 2007. For the whole of the winter month period, 1 May through 31
August, expected rain totals could be about 600-650mm. Summary: most
rain was always likeliest to arrive in June, less in the other winter
months, but enough to break the drought.
--------------------------------
7. What will happen in our catchment areas - will our dams keep
filling?
Potential dates for relatively larger amounts of rain for Warragamba are
around perigees. June 28-30 (S dec) July 1-4, 9-10 (perigee 10th) Aug
3-6 (perigee on 4th) Nov 4-5, 17-21 (perigee 24th) Dec 15-20 (perigee
22nd) Jan 18-20 (perigee 19th) Feb 12-23 (perigee 14th)
-----------------------------------------------
8. What are the dates the Perigee and Apogee fall on for this month -
are they aligned with these dale-force winds?
This month's perigee was June 13th.and the heaviest rain was within 4
days. (last month there was most rain on 18th/19th and perigee was on
17th.) ends
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------
Today Tonight Show, 11 June 2007
- Is the drought over/ Why?
I believe so, and most forecasters seem to be on the same page here. The
drought peaked last year, the same year as the maximum declination of
the moon. This is the cycle that brings extreme temperatures. We're over
that now, and this year is so far following the trend of past maximum
declination years.
- How dangerous is it for people, especially farmers, to get excited
about the end of the drought?
It is obviously unwise to make rash decisions like laying off stock or
acquiring more until the patterns reassert themselves. Some farmers are
finding that halving their stock enables the grass to extend the roots
down a bit more, which is a good idea, and most seem to agree that there
has been a change in weather patterns.
- We're told the rains in NSW this weekend resulted basically from the
early departure of the EL Nino system, what do you think? How were you
able to predict the rains we've just had?
I think the El Nino and La Nina are just words saying it was dry or wet,
and they always come after the fact. For instance the meteorologists
won't call off on this year being a La Nina until the end of the year. I
go by cycles and that is the gist of my method.
- What impact will these rains have on our dams?
The dams will slowly come up again, but the soil around them has to be
saturated first and that could take a while. Certainly a start has been
made and there is more rain to come, even this weekend. Then there is
July and August and I have good rain during those months.
- You say this year is similar to 1971... how similar and why?
Not exactly the same day by day and minute by minute. Overall there are
similar rainfall patterns though. Whereas the temperature trends are
similar to what happened in 1936. Why is because these are the cycles,
mostly 71-73 years and half that, 36-38 years, and they are what happens
between the sun, planets and moon that dictate weather patterns
- Meteorologists have consistently called your prediction making ability
into question... what do you say to the skeptics?
I suggest they follow my forecasts and my Predict Weather Almanac
2007and see for themselves. On p247 it says heavy rain for Sydney
7th-8th June. Also, on p226 it says "June 6th, NSW: fronts bring 4 days
of rain to the eastern half". I guess that's pretty well what has
happened. Bear in mind that the 2007 almanac was written nearly two
years ago.
- Now you can tell us what is ahead for the rest of this year? Will the
rains keep coming?
June was always going to be the rainiest month. The 9th and 10th would
get the most, perigee(moon closest to earth for month - brings unsettled
weather- will be on June 13th.(last month there was most rain on
18th/19th and perigee was on 17th.) July and Aug will be wet months but
not as bad as June. Floods possible in Aug 12 and 27 around New moon and
Full moon. Sept and Oct dry months, but floods possible on Oct
25th(perigee) Nov and Dec wet months again, floods possible Dec 16 and
22(perigee).
- Is it true that there is the possibility of more floods in New South
Wales this season?
No, not THIS season. After the end of next week this present flood
threat should abate, but there could still be some high river levels
after the weekend. Next floods Aug, end of Oct and Dec
- How Cold will this winter get?
The coldest times will be the ends of the months and beginnings of the
next's. But it won't be any colder than in previous years, just a few
more cold days.
- It was 25-28 degrees through Autumn, then we had this remarkable drop
in Temperature... Is that uncommon?
Not at all if you look at the cycles that are causing it. The coldest
this month was June 1st, moon in southern declination on June 1st/2nd.
Last month the coldest day in Sydney was on the 31st which is still
close to the southern declination of June 1st/2nd. The next southern
declination is on June 30th so expect a big temperature drop around
then, and snow on skifields. It is the southern declination that brings
colder temperatures because the moon is dragging polar air northwards
over the southern half of both Australia and NZ..
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interview on TodayFM Dublin, 18 June 2007, 10.15am, host Matt Cooper,
show "The Last Word" DUBLIN In a report on this website, posted 6 Dec
last year, I suggested that just like 1970 and 1975, MID June may bring
rogue hailstorms or even snowfalls for elevated and northern districts
of Ireland and the northern UK, and that seems to have been the
potential. It's part of late winter weather, because your winter came
late and correspondingly your summer is late.
June
Coming up for the rest of THIS month I have rain on and off most of this
week, mostly before lunch, and then I think it'll clear up and go a bit
warmer about 27th.
July
This will possibly be the sunniest time of summer for you, and I'm
expecting dry warm weather in the first week from 1st-7th, rain in the
second week and then mainly dry conditions from 15th to the end of the
month. So the second week will be rainy, just avoid that, also odd rain
in some places on the 19th and 22nd. The last week of July will be quite
warm.because the moon will be in the south.
August
There should be quite a bit of rain in the first couple of days but then
dry for the rest of the first week, but after that most of the rest of
the month will be rainy. The third week could be quite coolish and then
it'll warm up again by the last week.
September
This will be another wet month, but at least a few more fine days than
August served. There should be a decent dry time from the 14th-17th and
the longest dry spell and the warmest period for August should be
19th-23rd.
October
In the first two days there will be cooler temperatures and a lot of
rain, then a clearing until more rain around the 7th and 8th. Then from
10th-15th it should be dry, warm and pleasant, then there's almost
constant rainy days from the middle of October right to the last week in
November. That's about a month of rain.
November
So as we've said, another rainy month. It'll only come fine over the
last 4 days of the month. And when it does it will be cool and will feel
like winter has arrived early. Some places will get early winter frosts.
December
December won't be nearly so wet for the first three weeks. I'd say
mostly dry from the 1st-20th, apart from a wee rainfall about the 6th.
But then from the 22nd to Xmas it'll suddenly go cold and rainy. I don't
think it will be cold enough for snow, but I'd expect hail or sleet.
Xmas day itself should clear up a bit and then rain resumes on boxing
day and continues till the end of the year.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
So this summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as some summers have
been in recent years. Heat waves may be rare. 2008 may begin with a
mild winter after a cold autumn, and, mid year of 2008 should bring a
mild summer. The UK is heading for less cold winters and milder summers.
The real reason for the seasons change is just that it is part of a
grand cycle of seasons grinding its slow way forward. There are several
repeating combinations.in which sun, moon and planetary cycles coincide
in an endless repetition. Part of the cycle is 36-38 years.
Just as 1974 was exceptionally mild, so 2010-12 will be about the middle
point to come of these milder winter years, and 2013 should see a return
of wetter and colder winters, on a par with years 1977- 1979 and 1997.
Those were the last previous very cold winter seasons. Before that the
coldest winters were 1945 and 1961-3. Going back even further, other
notably cold years have been 1814 and 1740, which a little arithmetic
will show all comply to a cyclic pattern. So, in many ways one could say
last winter was on a par with what happened in 1933/34, 1963/64,
1966/67, 1970/71, 1975/76, 1980/81, and 1990/91.
Is global warming, climate change etc a factor? No, no and no. Earth's
natural state is ice age!!! Earth spends 80% of its geological time in
ice ages, which last 50-60,000 years. In between are interglacials,
about 10,000 years. It has been 11,000 years since the last ice age, so
guess where we're heading. In about 8,000 years time it will be slightly
cooler. The sealevels are NOT rising. They have been doing so since the
last ice age and have now reached the maximum they have ever been. Signs
we are heading for an Ice Age? Antarctica is cooling, been thickening in
the middle for the past 20 years. So has Greenland. The glaciers in the
southern hemisphere have been advancing since 1996. The Pacific is
dropping. Just Google intelligently, like 'Sealevels dropping',
'Antarctica thickening', and 'ice age coming', and see for yourself that
there is much scientific evidence for skepticism about the current
environmental alarmism. Don't believe what your politicians and
government-salaried scientists want to tell you. They need the Green's
votes and will sell their scientific souls for them.
Will 2007 Xmas Day be white? Possibly in some northern and elevated
places, because the full moon and northern declination occur on the
24th, with a perigee two days before which will exaggerate the cold.
Will next winter in 2007/8 be extra cold? No, the coldest period should
be autumn, between October and Xmas.
Will 2008 Xmas Day be white? No, just the opposite.
ends
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is now in shops. It has a bright
green cover featuring Omarama meteorologist Gary Roberts' wonderful
photo of the Lindis Pass.
The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia Almanac is published by Random
House Australia and is available in all Dymocks and Collins bookshops.
It covers 152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and in NZ shops, about
natural cycles which account for the major shifts in climate. The book
is an attempt to furnish the reader with tools for weather prediction,
both short and long term. The main cycles of the moon are described and
starting hints for anyone wanting to predict coming seasons. The
dynamics are there, such as how the moon causes barometric change when
it changes hemispheres, how the air is as much tidal as is the sea and
what happens when the peaks of different cycles engage together. The
moon fits into the interconnected system that we call the cosmos, and
moon, sun and planets play a weather role. The Lunar Code is available
from booksellers throughout NZ at $35. This book replaces Predicting
Weather By The Moon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or
outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information printed here.
This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely
distributed to interested parties provided that the source is
acknowledged; except not for purposes of commercial gain unless
authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) PWL 2007
CONTACT DETAILS
Editor: Ken Ring,
ph 09-817-7625, mobile 021 970-696
e-mail: enqui-@predictweather.com
Postal: Ken Ring Ltd, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland, 0642, New
Zealand.
Internet deposit details: Bank=ASB,
Account name=Ken Ring Ltd, Account number=12-3109-0041109-00 Australian
clients please note, internet deposit incurs massive bank fees for both
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