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Weather ezine July 10, 2007
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Weatherman
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Jul 10, 2007 06:30 PDT
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE July 10, 2007
CURRENT MOON
GENERAL
NZ TORNADOS
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Current Moon
6th: crossing equator
8th: last quarter
10th: perigee #12
13th: northern declination
15th: New moon
General
This northern storm should have passed tomorrow and it may be fine and
settled by midweek. As usual the perigee has brought widespread high winds
and increased turbulence. For the rest of the week most of NZ, especially
areas south of central N Is. is expected to be mainly dry. Then around the
next phase change to New moon should bring more wet weather.
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NZ Tornados
Tornados often come about when cold air coming up from the poles meets warm
air coming down and it meets at a midpoint, which often is when the moon
crosses the equator on its way N from S in the southern hemisphere.
Coincidentally it was doing this on the day of the tornado. Last Q moon is
associated with electrical activity. Its position in space means the moon is
dragging solar particles from the sun towards it(the moon) across the face
of earth which intensifies charges in the atmosphere. The full moon to last
Q which is the time of most electrical storms. NZers remember the Greymouth
tornado of March 10th, 2005. The moon crossed the equator heading N the next
day. Then there was the big tornado in Ardmore, Auckland on 25 June 2005.
The last Q moon was two days later. A tornado can be a column anything up to
half a km wide wide and is strong enough to drive straw into wood and wood
into metal as it creates its path of destruction. Hurricanes often spawn
tornados and they generally head towards the NE. Interestingly the one in
Taranaki struck at about 5.30pm and the one the night before in Tauranga was
also about 5.30pm. That was near enough to the time that the moon was
directly underfoot, on the opposite side of the earth to the location, this
(called IC position) being the most potent time for extreme weather events.
The tide of the air is right out then, it is on "the turn" and similar in
dynamics to the turn of the seatide at the coast.
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Queensland in July
Most areas have so far been dry. Rain was expected about 9th/10th in the
east, and reached some places including Goondiwindi, Inglewood and
Stanthorpe. Toowoomba may not get rain this month except around 21st and
27th. Only 3-4 inches are expected there between 1 July - 30 September.
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WA in July
Perth and Albany are likely to keep receiving regular July rain. Mt Magnet
and central areas are likely to remain fairly dry this month, also districts
east of Broome. The Kimberleys, De Grey, Pilbara and the SE should not be
hopeful of any above-average rainy months in the remainder of this year.
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July for NZ
The third week of the month brings light relief with only occasional
snowfalls and light winds to Canterbury. Although snow is expected down to
300m in Westland and Fiordland by 24th, conditions are predominantly dry,
and the North Island snowfields may have difficulty remaining open.
Whakapapa, Turoa and Tukino may need more snow to operate and by 26th-27th
only limited skiing conditions may be available.
South winds and unsettled conditions in the last few days of the month may
bring relief to ski operations in the North Island. New snow is expected
overnight around 29th, at Whakapapa (perhaps 10-15cm), and by 30th limited
skiing may be possible. By the 31st however, snow and ice is likely to
close the Desert Road once again as another wintery blast flows up from the
south. New snows are likely at Turoa brought by strong southeasterlies,
which brought blizzard-like conditions to mid Canterbury the day before and
scattered snowfalls to Southland.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 16th-17th, 19th-20th in the north, 22nd-29th (heavier
4th, 16th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Western, Central North Is: 16th-29th (heavier 6th, 16th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Taupo: 16th, 19th, 22nd-30th(heavier 6th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Gisborne, HB: 16th, 22nd-26th, 28th-29th.(heavier 6th, 22nd, 29th)
Lower North Is: 16th, 21st-31st (heavier 6th, 22nd, 26th, 29th).
Nelson and Marlborough: 14th-16th, 22nd-23rd, (heavier 5th, 16th, 22nd)
Canterbury: 14th-16th, 22nd-25th, 29th-31st, (heavier 22nd, 30th)
Otago: 14th-17th,19th, 20th-21st, 27th-28th (heavier 5th, 15th)
Dunedin: 14th-16th, 21st, 24th-31st, (heavier 1st, 5th)
Southland: 14th-21st, 28th-31st, (heavier 5th, 17th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 13th-23rd, 27th-28th(heavier 5th, 11th,
15th,18th, 22nd, 28th)
JULY
10th-18th: Warmer temperatures than usual. A large southern anticyclone is
blocked until the 14th. Warm moist N's predominate over the next few days
as the anticyclone moves E and a trough of low pressure moves towards the
country from the Tasman Sea. By 15th freezing central NI temperatures bring
ice and fog to roads. A depression which develops within the trough moves
over Southland by the 16th followed by disturbed W's which may cover the
country.
20th-26th: A depression in the Tasman Sea moves slowly E and may deepen
during the next few days. Another depression may form just E of the NI
about the 23rd. From the 22nd, moist N's should affect the NI while
unsettled easterly conditions cover the S and E of the SI.
27th-31st: Both centres of a depression pass to the E of the country by the
27th, however a trough remains over the country. A number of other
depressions within the trough moves over NZ until the 31st. Unsettled
southerly conditions prevail from the 27th to the 1st of August, interrupted
briefly on the 28th and 29th when NW's flow over the NI ahead of a cold
front. By 29th fog may develop at Hamilton and Wellington airports. New
snow at Whakapapa overnight (perhaps 10-15cm). By 30th Whakapapa may open
for limited skiing. Valley T Bar and Cinder Track Platter lifts operating.
Centennial Chair Lift and Waterfall Express Quad operating for access only.
Turoa also open with Giant Chairlift skiable to mid-station and Alpine 31st,
but ice and snow may close Desert Road.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around Full moon
(1st and 30th), perigee(10th), New moon (15th), and apogee(22nd)
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Southern Hawkes Bay
The drought broke with first good rains on 12 June. The last drought was
1997 and before that 1987/88, true to the lunar pattern that suggests
droughts can be expected in the same district every 9 years.
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Declination notes
The below dates may bring increased cold periods in the winter of 2007.
July 10 - (perigee #12)
July 13-15 - (new moon+N dec)
July 30-8 Aug - (S dec =July 27th)
Aug 23-24 - (S dec =23rd)
Aug 30-31 - (perigee #10)
Sept 29-1 Oct - (full moon+perigee #6)
Oct 7-10 - (new moon)
Oct 23-24 - (S dec =17th)
Nov 10-13 - (S dec+new moon)
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Winter Snow report
NZ
Every day from July 20th-August 11th should see subzero minimums in
Queenstown, with the heaviest frosts around the first week of August.
However most days in this interval should stay dry. The third week of July
sees good snowfalls on the central plateau, with no sunny skies until the
beginning of August.
In the SI, precipitation comes again around mid August but is not
longlasting, and another dry spell, lasting about a month, may stretch from
18 August to 18 September. During this time it could be cold enough for snow
machines, but after 18 September temperatures will probably rise too quickly
to be able to artifically extend the season. In the NI, August should be
mainly dry, although cold, but the first week of September sees snow falling
in the ranges and summits of skifields, whilst rain may quickly wash away
snow at lower levels.
All in all, a good season for colder temperatures but an average season for
natural snow, which is mainly expected to come in June, July and mid August.
Drier weather should prevail at other times.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Australia
Snow reports are available for Mt Buller, Perisher, Thredbo. Please email
ke-@weatherman.co.nz for details. Good snow is expected right through to
November, with the last fall of the year around Xmas Day.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 NZ Almanac summarised
In 2007 an increase in NEs will make the top half of the NI wetter and
warmer. However the southern half of the NI and most of the SI will have a
drier and warmer year. Exceptions in the NI will be Gisborne, Napier and
Masterton wetter and warmer, and in the SI Timaru and Oamaru drier and
cooler. April will be the sunniest month..
In 2007 the first half of winter will be the worst, when much rain comes to
the NI and heavy rain and snow for the SI from a destructive cold snap in
the second week of June The first week of July brings another cold wintry
blast. The end of winter in August will be considerably drier. September to
October will be the cloudiest period which will mean a warmer spring.
In the southern hydrolakes there should be adequate storage levels over the
winter months.
The worst of SI weather will be about mid June. October will be a bad rain
month for the NI, and the top and west of the SI. November will bring
widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe December weather just before
New Years Eve will close the year with some drama.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate History
It is a disturbing thought that perhaps the problem of climate change is
imaginary. The historical record tells us of many warming episodes and
subsequent cooling periods that have bedeviled humans for thousands of
years. The ancient Greek philosopher Plato(427 - 347 BC), wrote about major
climate changes that were known in his day. In the dialogue, "Timaeus," he
wrote that warming at regular intervals often leads to great floods. When
the gods purge the earth with a deluge of water, the survivor are herdsmen
and shepherds who dwell on the mountains. Those who live in cities are
carried by the rivers into the sea." In his dialogue, "Critias," Plato wrote
about weather-related geological changes, referring to "formidable deluges"
that washed away all the top soil, turning the land into a "skeleton of a
body wasted by disease." What were now plains had once been covered with
rich soil, Plato said, and barren mountains were once covered with trees.
The yearly "water from Zeus" had been lost, he went on, creating deserts
where the land was once productive. Plato's student, Aristotle, who lived
from 384 BC to 322 BC, also recorded evidence of global warming in the first
book on meteorology, "Meteorologica." He noted that in the time of the
Trojan War, the land of Argos was marshy and unarable, while that of Mycenae
was temperate and fertile. "But now the opposite is the case," Aristotle
wrote. "The land of Mycenae has become completely dry and barren, while the
Argive land that was formerly barren, owing to the water has now become
fruitful." He observed the same phenomenon elsewhere covering large regions
and nations. In turn, Aristotle's apprentice Theophrastus(374 -287 BC),
discussed climate change in his work, "De ventis," which means "The Wind."
He observed that in Crete, "nowadays the winters are more severe and more
snow falls." In earlier times, Theophrastus said, the mountains there bore
grain and fruit, and the island was more populous. But when the climate
changed, the land became infertile. In his book, "De causis plantarum,"
Theophrastus noted that the Greek city of Larissa once had plentiful olive
trees, but that falling temperatures killed them all.
Through the ages books were rare, and books on weather more so. There were
the popular almanacs that served as calendars, medical guides and
agricultural instruction manuals. But other books were extremely rare,. If
any copies existed they were handcopied. They were housed in monasteries and
libraries, but few got to read them. in the first century AD, an ancient
Roman named Columella wrote a specifically agricultural treatise called, "De
re rustica." In it, he discussed global warming that had turned areas once
too cold for agriculture into thriving farm communities. Columella cites an
authority named Saserna who recorded many such cases. According to Saserna,
"regions which formerly, because of the unremitting severity of winter,
could not safeguard any shoot of the vine or the olive planted in them, now
that the earlier coldness has abated and weather is becoming more clement,
produce olive harvests and the vintages of Bacchus [wine] in greatest
abundance."
While these rare books described and noted climate changes, no one appeared
to be in a moral panic over their writings. As literacy and printing became
commonplace in the Middle Ages, many diverse peoples, professional and
amateur began recording the temperature and climate-related phenomena, such
as the dates when plants began to blossom annually. They were aware of a
warming trend that began around 900 and a cooling trend that began around
1300. Due to several recordists we know that during the warm period, the
Vikings established settlements in Greenland where perpetual ice had
previously covered the land. Ancient Norse records tell us that these
settlements were abandoned after 1250 when falling temperatures made farming
less viable and spreading ice in the sea made transportation more difficult.
The cooling trend led to heavy rains in 14th century Europe that were too
much for the crops, leading to reduced agricultural output and numerous
famines. In the 15th century, a warming trend returned, which lasted until
the middle of the 16th century when temperatures again started to fall. By
the 17th century, it was clearly apparent that a cooling trend was altering
sea routes, changing the kinds of crops farmers could grow, fishing patterns
and so on. Glaciers began to advance rapidly in many places and rivers that
had long been ice-free year round started to freeze in the winter. This
"little ice age" continued well into the 19th century. Since then, we have
been in a warming cycle that appears to have accelerated around 1950.
We now know a great deal about climate changes from the historical record.
These changes occurred long before industrialization and could not possibly
have been man-made in any way whatsoever. They don't prove that man is not
now affecting the climate through carbon dioxide emissions, but they do tell
us that temporary warming trends are common in human history. So what is
different, because never before have newspapers been so full of doom?
Because climate is more or less constantly slowly changing, from ice ages
through interglacials over hundreds of thousands of years, local or
international changes in the environment can be discounted. However the hype
is upwardly exponential. Is it driven solely by newspapers? Not really,
because all newspapers want to do is sell more newspapers. They report what
they can sell and sell what they can report. By politicians? All they want
to do is get re-elected.
Whilst environment concerns are far from new, the real reasons for the new
concern may have more to do with the human psyche than the planet we walk
on. It may have something to do with a newly developing combination of
gullibility, greed and graft, with a topping of guilt for good measure.
Where once a whacky notion usually died a quick natural death, now the
internet puts a magnifying glass on anything remotely dramatic, and in a
matter of hours it can be read by billions. Perhaps what has changed is not
the climate, but the reporting of it.
(excerpts from Bruce Bartlett, of the National Center for Policy Analysis of
Dallas, Texas, who has compiled a history of alarmism).
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Live Earth
In order to decrease carbon emissions by 33 percent, we would have to remove
every existing car and truck from the road, including hybrids, ground every
airplane, and shut down every gas station. In order to bump up from there to
a 73-percent decrease in emissions, we would have to shut down most of our
electrical grid, with the exception of areas supplied only by windmills, and
dams. That's right, no computers, no lights, no cars, no air conditioning.
We've entered the third world already, and we're still not anywhere near the
90-percent reductions that some respected climate scientists say we need
immediately in order to save the planet. So why is it considered anything
but a big joke when former Vice President Al Gore asks millions to pledge
"to demand that my country join an international treaty within the next 2
years that cuts global warming pollution by 90% in developed countries and
by more than half worldwide in time for the next generation to inherit a
healthy earth"? Yet instead of the appropriate laughter, we hear ecstatic
plaudits from news reporters, evidently too busy copying press releases
about Gore's Live Earth concerts to look anything up. Short of killing
everyone, there is nothing any government can do to bring anything close to
90-percent carbon-emissions reductions within a generation.
Historically, carbon emissions decline only in years of economic hardship,
and even then only slightly. Even with the economic pain suffered in those
years, nations typically reduced carbon emissions by just above or below one
percent, and in both cases the tiny reductions were more than made up for by
increases in the following year or two. As a rule, we emit less when have
less, produce less, and employ fewer people. And as our population and
economy grow, so does our demand for energy.
Incremental measures such as forced ethanol use, government-efficiency
standards, and carbon caps have a completely negligible effect on carbon
emissions. They do have the effect, however, of causing pain for consumers.
The caps will drive up everyone's electrical bill, as well as the cost of
everything that it requires energy to produce or deliver. Meanwhile, new
government standards are already making electrical appliances unaffordable
and worse in quality, and they will only continue to do so.
Then again, perhaps the whole idea is to cause pain. The Live Earth message
seemed to be ration, cut back, turn off everything, replace everything alive
and bright with duller quieter substitutes. U.S. comedian Chris Rock said "I
pray that this event ends global warming the same way that Live Aid ended
world hunger," The editorial in the newspaper The Australian was headed Live
Earth A Dead Loss. Sir Bob Geldof said there's no need to raise awareness
for what must be the world's most talked-about issue. The NZ Herald headed
its page Hypocrisy Claims Shake Concert Success, all about Madonna and her
financial links to oil polluters. The News of the World detailed estimates
of Madonna's carbon emissions from nine houses, a fleet of cars, a private
jet and the Confessions tour, calling her a "climate-change catastrophe."
The press in NZ has highlighted comments of groups that have said they just
did it for the profiling. There have been suggestions that all the flying in
Boeings of groups and equipment and fans here and there has actually
contributed to a carbon dioxide increase, and it has not gone unnoticed that
all the money goes to the Al Gore Fund which is all about selling carbon
credits to governments, Some have called it an obvious presidential campaign
disguised as environmental advocacy. People get behind Live Earth because
they trust politicians and scientists. But politicians don't care about
anything except getting re-elected and they need the votes of the greenies,
and scientists need research funds to keep sending their kids to private
schools and university, so all toe the government line. It's only the
scientists and writers who don't need the state salaries, people like David
Bellamy and Lord Monkton and Michael Crichton, who will go public with their
alternative views. It seems people are getting weary now of the Al Gore
message. They can see the hypocracy when he owns oil shares as well as a
carbon credit agency. People are saying if they are going to be accused of
wrecking the Earth they might as well just go ahead and wreck it because
they're going to get spanked either way. If Gore manages to create enough
doom around his product, which is doom itself, then his
love-the-earth-enough-to-want-to-save-it message may result in an increased
sense of apathy and actually set the environmental movement back. Which
would be a good thing.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Website upgrade
I apologise to clients who have been trying to access predictions for 2008
and beyond. The website is undergoing a facelift and reconstruction, with
many exciting new features. Soon readers will be able to gain predictions
for several years ahead if required. Until then, forecasts are being
generated manually by me and staff. Please email us at
enqui-@predictweather.com if you have a request.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If we
take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a year we
have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the average-perigee distance
for the year. Looking at a series of these we can take note that about every
4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer, called a
closeperigee year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to an
8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for about
3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator, then
further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years before
beginning the return journey. Closeperigee years occur when the moon is
passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth bulges into space
more at the equator and so is going to be generally slightly closer to the
moon. The northern hemisphere can expect a big hurricane event in late
October. On the other hand Australia and parts of NZ should experience
extra-high temperatures from late September to November. Spring and early
summer should be warmer than mid and late summer. Next January, February and
March should be mild, not extra hot. By 2008, perigee will have shifted to
the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point between July
2008-December 2008.
This year may be the last for seriously destructive events until 2011, 2015
and 2020.
July 10th P#12 may mostly affect the beginning of the third week of the
month.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some southern places but
leave others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect the days
following.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
MOON IN JULY
1st: Full moon
6th: Crossing Equator
8th: Last Quarter
10th: Perigee #12
13th: Northern Declination
15th: New Moon
20th: Crossing Equator
22nd: Apogee
22nd: 1st Quarter
27th: Southern Declination
30th: Full Moon
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
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Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is in shops. It has a bright green
cover.
The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia Almanac is published by Random House
Australia and is available in all Dymocks and Collins bookshops. It covers
152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and in NZ shops, about natural
cycles which account for the major shifts in climate. The book is an attempt
to furnish the reader with tools for weather prediction, both short and long
term. The main cycles of the moon are described and starting hints for
anyone wanting to predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as
how the moon causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the
air is as much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of
different cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected
system that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather
role. The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ. This book
replaces Predicting Weather By The Moon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. This e-zine
is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to
interested parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for
purposes of commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights
Reserved (c) PWL 2007
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CONTACT DETAILS
Editor: Ken Ring,
ph 09-817-7625, mobile 021 970-696
e-mail: enqui-@predictweather.com
Postal: Ken Ring Ltd, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland, 0642, New Zealand.
Internet deposit details: Bank=ASB,
Account name=Ken Ring Ltd, Account number=12-3109-0041109-00 Australian
clients please note, internet deposit incurs massive bank fees for both of
us. Cheques, from Australian banks(no money orders!) are preferred and are
the quickest.
http://www.predictweather.com
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