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WEATHER EZINE July 18, 2007
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Weatherman
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Jul 18, 2007 12:01 PDT
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WEATHER EZINE July 18, 2007
Weather By The Moon
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Current Moon
15th: New moon
20th: crossing equator
22nd: Apogee, 1st Q
General
The colder morning weather continues in Auckland and southern parts of
Australia. Typical new moon phase weather is precipitation at night followed
by pleasant days with rain easing by lunchtime, falling again if about, at
moonset in the evening. Over new moon winter nights the colder heavier air
descends and causes frosts if there is an absence of cloud and humidity.
After new moon comes the intermediate phase called waxing crescent. It is
the moon shape seen in the west in the evening as a thin banana shape.
Without night cloud in the sky it is a colder period and frost-forming. But
temperatures are slowly rising and should pass a peak about 26th. The next
cold snap follows coming when the moon is in the south, around the 28th of
July.
We are also moving towards the foggy part of the moon's month, which is
typically from waxing crescent until just after waxing gibbous (around the
25th). Cloud is low until halfway through the morning which is when the moon
rises and draws them higher.
The weekend may be good for fishing around dawn and dusk, even though Sunday
may be overcast. The moon will be in 1st Q on Sunday. An old Maori adage was
to 'keep the fish out of the moon', which means by the afternoon of 1st Q
one kept the catch wrapped or cool in a bin, because the afternoon moon in
the sky can affect the fish's freshness. This is commonsense, because more
heat is in the winter air when the moon is above the horizon.
Weather over next week: for Auckland, mostly dry Wednesday, possible shower
Thursday, Friday cloudy and the odd shower, Saturday generally fine, Sunday
the rain returns, Monday overcast with a bit of rain, Tuesday misty and also
some showers, and Wednesday showers again.
For Wellington, Wednesday mostly dry but cloudy, Thursday warm, mainly dry,
Friday clearer skies, Saturday rain developing, Sunday rain, Monday rain,
Tuesday rain.
For Christchurch, Wednesday cool, frosty, Thursday mainly fine, Friday fine,
frost, Saturday cloud developing, Sunday rain developing, Monday cloud,
possible snow, Tuesday cloudy and breezy.
For Dunedin, Wednesday mostly dry but cloudy, Thursday warm, mainly dry,
Friday clearer skies, Saturday rbuilding cloud, Sunday showers clearing,
Monday cloud again developing, Tuesday showers.
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Australia this week
The new moon has already brought snow to parts of Victoria and NSW. The low
pressure system responsible for the precipitation moves away from the SE
coast about the 19th followed by cold fronts coming up from the southern
ocean on 20th. These fronts should extend from Tasmania to QLD. This system
moves east by 21st and by 22nd a high sits over the whole east coast,
centered about Brisbane. By 23rd a low bringing rain comes through SA
extending to southern NT. By 24th a low centred on TAS affects the S
Victorian coast, developing into a powerful cyclonic system by July 25th..
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Mt Buller in July and August
Snow from July 12th-24th. The 25th-27th should be a dry window with some
sunshine. Snow again in last 4 days of July. Most snow in August comes
9th-11th and 16th-22nd. Time to go in August: 23rd-26th.
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QLD in July
Most areas have so far been dry. Toowoomba may not get rain this month
except around 21st and 27th. Only 3-4 inches are expected there between 1
July - 30 September. High temps around 20th at Croydon and Weipa.
23rd: Strong SE and Es. A ridge extends from SA
24th: light rain, central inland areas.
28th: cold and windy, light rain in parts of Darling Downs.
29th: light snow Stanthorpe
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WA in July
Perth and Albany are likely to keep receiving regular July rain. Mt Magnet
and central areas are likely to remain fairly dry this month, also districts
east of Broome. The Kimberleys, De Grey, Pilbara and the SE should not be
hopeful of any above-average rainy months in the remainder of this year.
18th: light snowfalls to Stirling Ranges
30th: Subtropical ridge south of perth moves northwards to stay for 10 days
before moving S until Aug 11th. Over the next two days, a storm hits Perth.
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NSW in July
18th: a low with a cold front moves through VIC and NSW bringing patchy
light rain to south and centre districts. Northern districts remain fine. A
cold W or SW airstream follows this front bringing rain and showers to
Central Tablelands. Fogs and frosts inland and on coasts.
20th: possible hail at Cobar.
21st, another cold front passes through but not much rain may eventuate.
Chance of thunderstorm and hail in W Sydney and gales and snow in Northern
Tablelands.
23rd: high winds from Tasman, good for surfers. Mostly fine, some showers in
S and snow on the Highlands. Fogs and frosts in S and central areas.
26th: cold fronts move through the State over 24 hrs.
27th-29th: cold airstream brings rain/snow and showers to Southern,
Northern and Central Tablelands. Widespread rain. Frosts in western
metroploitan areas next 4 days.
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July for NZ
The third week of the month brings light relief with only occasional
snowfalls and light winds to Canterbury. Although snow is expected down to
300m in Westland and Fiordland by 24th, conditions are predominantly dry,
and the North Island snowfields may have difficulty remaining open.
Whakapapa, Turoa and Tukino may need more snow to operate and by 26th-27th
only limited skiing conditions may be available.
South winds and unsettled conditions in the last few days of the month may
bring relief to ski operations in the North Island. New snow is expected
overnight around 29th, at Whakapapa (perhaps 10-15cm), and by 30th limited
skiing may be possible. By the 31st however, snow and ice is likely to
close the Desert Road once again as another wintery blast flows up from the
south. New snows are likely at Turoa brought by strong southeasterlies,
which brought blizzard-like conditions to mid Canterbury the day before and
scattered snowfalls to Southland.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 16th-17th, 19th-20th in the north, 22nd-29th (heavier
4th, 16th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Western, Central North Is: 16th-29th (heavier 6th, 16th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Taupo: 16th, 19th, 22nd-30th(heavier 6th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Gisborne, HB: 16th, 22nd-26th, 28th-29th.(heavier 6th, 22nd, 29th) Lower
North Is: 16th, 21st-31st (heavier 6th, 22nd, 26th, 29th).
Nelson and Marlborough: 14th-16th, 22nd-23rd, (heavier 5th, 16th, 22nd)
Canterbury: 14th-16th, 22nd-25th, 29th-31st, (heavier 22nd, 30th)
Otago: 14th-17th,19th, 20th-21st, 27th-28th (heavier 5th, 15th)
Dunedin: 14th-16th, 21st, 24th-31st, (heavier 1st, 5th)
Southland: 14th-21st, 28th-31st, (heavier 5th, 17th) Buller/West
Coast/Fiordland: 13th-23rd, 27th-28th(heavier 5th, 11th, 15th,18th, 22nd,
28th)
JULY
10th-18th: Warmer temperatures than usual. A large southern anticyclone is
blocked until the 14th. Warm moist N's predominate over the next few days
as the anticyclone moves E and a trough of low pressure moves towards the
country from the Tasman Sea. By 15th freezing central NI temperatures bring
ice and fog to roads. A depression which develops within the trough moves
over Southland by the 16th followed by disturbed W's which may cover the
country.
20th-26th: A depression in the Tasman Sea moves slowly E and may deepen
during the next few days. Another depression may form just E of the NI
about the 23rd. From the 22nd, moist N's should affect the NI while
unsettled easterly conditions cover the S and E of the SI.
27th-31st: Both centres of a depression pass to the E of the country by the
27th, however a trough remains over the country. A number of other
depressions within the trough moves over NZ until the 31st. Unsettled
southerly conditions prevail from the 27th to the 1st of August, interrupted
briefly on the 28th and 29th when NW's flow over the NI ahead of a cold
front. By 29th fog may develop at Hamilton and Wellington airports. New
snow at Whakapapa overnight (perhaps 10-15cm). By 30th Whakapapa may open
for limited skiing. Valley T Bar and Cinder Track Platter lifts operating.
Centennial Chair Lift and Waterfall Express Quad operating for access only.
Turoa also open with Giant Chairlift skiable to mid-station and Alpine 31st,
but ice and snow may close Desert Road.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around Full moon
(1st and 30th), perigee(10th), New moon (15th), and apogee(22nd)
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Southern Hawkes Bay
The drought broke with first good rains on 12 June. The last drought was
1997 and before that 1987/88, true to the lunar pattern that suggests
droughts can be expected in the same district every 9 years.
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Winter Snow report
NZ
Every day from July 20th-August 11th should see subzero minimums in
Queenstown, with the heaviest frosts around the first week of August.
However most days in this interval should stay dry. The third week of July
sees good snowfalls on the central plateau, with no sunny skies until the
beginning of August.
In the SI, precipitation comes again around mid August but is not
longlasting, and another dry spell, lasting about a month, may stretch from
18 August to 18 September. During this time it could be cold enough for snow
machines, but after 18 September temperatures will probably rise too quickly
to be able to artifically extend the season. In the NI, August should be
mainly dry, although cold, but the first week of September sees snow falling
in the ranges and summits of skifields, whilst rain may quickly wash away
snow at lower levels.
All in all, a good season for colder temperatures but an average season for
natural snow, which is mainly expected to come in June, July and mid August.
Drier weather should prevail at other times.
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2007 NZ Almanac summarised
In 2007 an increase in NEs will make the top half of the NI wetter and
warmer. However the southern half of the NI and most of the SI will have a
drier and warmer year. Exceptions in the NI will be Gisborne, Napier and
Masterton wetter and warmer, and in the SI Timaru and Oamaru drier and
cooler. April will be the sunniest month..
In 2007 the first half of winter will be the worst, when much rain comes to
the NI and heavy rain and snow for the SI from a destructive cold snap in
the second week of June The first week of July brings another cold wintry
blast. The end of winter in August will be considerably drier. September to
October will be the cloudiest period which will mean a warmer spring.
In the southern hydrolakes there should be adequate storage levels over the
winter months.
The worst of SI weather will be about mid June. October will be a bad rain
month for the NI, and the top and west of the SI. November will bring
widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe December weather just before
New Years Eve will close the year with some drama.
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Southern declination notes
When the moon is in the south, cold southerlies are generated, so in winter
it is southern declination dates that mainly concern us.
The midwinter S dec coincides with full moon, although they are separate
cycles. Last year S decs occurred on June 12th, July 10th, August 6th and
September 3rd. They were the main snow event days.
In 2007 southern declination dates February 13th, March 13th, April 9th, May
6th, June 2nd and 30th, July 27th, August 23rd, September 20th, October
17th, November 13th and December 10th.
The below dates may bring increased cold periods in the winter of 2007.
May 8-14 (S dec=6th)
May 27-30 (full moon+Sdec of June 1st/2nd)
June 6-8 (S dec =2nd will kick things off. June 4th-20th
Mercury in cold position (as it was 2006 12th-24th)
June 12-22 (New moon+perigee#9 closest for year)
June 26-30 (S dec =30th)
July 10 (perigee #12)
July 13-15 (new moon+N dec)
July 30-8 Aug (S dec =July 27th)
Aug 23-24 (S dec =23rd)
Aug 30-31 (perigee #10)
Sept 29-1 Oct (full moon+perigee #6)
Oct 7-10 (new moon)
Oct 23-24 (S dec =17th)
Nov 10-13 (S dec+new moon)
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Letters to NZ Herald
I write regular letters to the editor, although these days mysteriously none
get to print. So I enclose them in this new column.
13/7/07
Dear Editor
It should be noted that the carbon dioxide released when wood is burned is
the same as that absorbed by the tree when it was growing. No more and no
less. It is the same for coal and oil. Therefore no more carbon dioxide is
released into the atmosphere than was removed for the growing or forming
process, so banning open fires because of carbon dioxide emissions is
absurd. Further, the main emissions from a wood-fired plant consist of water
vapour. That is the visible part of the smoke coming from a chimney. Dark or
smelly smoke just means the wood is not burning completely.
In the past cities were much more polluted from coal fires and factories but
somehow the climate did not change. That aside, there is always everything
to be said for moving factories and heavy trucks away from residential
suburbs. But a city's pollution should not be confused with a country's
climate, and no one ever died from sitting around a fireplace despite the
fact that about half of the world's population is using biomass as the
heating source in their private households. The danger from dying from the
cold is far greater.
Granted, smoke does contain particles of unburned fuel which form as a
result of incomplete combustion and harmful pollutants can trigger coughs,
runny noses, headaches and eye and throat irritation, not to mention the
harm to lung tissue, but one would have to sit so close to the source that
they breathed it all in most of the time instead of clean air. The same can
be said for vehicle exhausts which are fatal if inhaled. The fact is, most
people choose not to stick their noses in their car's exhaust pipe.
Similarly few fireplaces are designed with seating halfway up the chimney.
Carbon monoxide is far more deadly than smoke from a fireplace but I have
not heard of any call to ban all cars.
Lest they be accused of revenue-gathering, councils and government keen on
issuing permits for everything should leave open fireplaces alone. We have
always enjoyed them for free.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
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1/7/07
Dear Editor
It seems not a day goes past without yet another mention of how doomed we
all are because the planet's temperature may have risen 0.6 of one degree in
the past century. Would it be asking the impossible for this newspaper to
not mention global warming or climate change in just one edition? I am
getting a bit hot and bothered having to hear about it day after day after
day. Besides, it is winter time and some of us find comfort in warmth.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
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19/4/07
Dear Editor
It seems a newspaper cannot mention weather, anywhere, anytime, anymore,
without mention also of 'climate-change'. It is like some mantra belonging
to a fundamentalist religion. I remember life b.cc. Weather happened, and
was dealt with until the next lot. Nobody was held to blame. Certainly
nobody was taxed for it. Yet amazingly the world survived. Scientists were
paid to do real research, not just what pleased the government. The weather
was something that was actually expected to change. Please, can we get back
to that?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
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18/4/07
Dear Editor
The global warming debate is certainly not over. If a range element is only
2C above current room temperature a kettle will not heat up, because when
the day cools so will the kettle. A kettle of water weighs a couple of
kilos. We are talking about the air which weighs five thousand million
million tons, being supposedly warmed daily by CO2, something that is only
1/3000th of the air's volume, through 2C in 100 years, according to the
IPCC. That's 100 winters and summers, many cooler than average, that the
extra 2C warmth has to break through. Just like a stray spark from a fire,
any rising CO2 molecule has its heat stripped off it at 10,000 feet, where
it is 0C, above which the surroundings go into subzero temps. At the top of
the troposphere, where the supposed greenhouse effect operates to reflect
heat back down to earth, it is -57C. Yet the new climate science asks us to
believe that one molecule in 3000 can heat up hundreds of miles of air that
is colder than it gets in Antarctic in autumn(today the S Pole was -54C).
One is therefore left wondering, if atmospheric CO2 can do that, why isn't
it doing it right now to Antarctica?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
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31/3/07
Dear Editor
It is odd to hear NIWA's announcement of rain last as bad 150 years ago,
when in 1857 no countrywide metservice existed. If so, where are the
records? The storm is barely over, and already, according to their
nationwide press statement, NIWA are certain that global warming is to
blame. Yet they didn't predict this one until it was already on us. If they
knew it was coming then where were the stopbanks and frenzied activities
getting well prepared for it? Why is not NIWA accountable for the lack of
warning? Perhaps some metservice accountability for insurance claims may up
their diligence and stop the nonsensical press releases. That logic will, as
usual, not be addressed. Neither will the equally absurd suggestion that
these storms are going to occur more regularly, now that global warming is
supposed to be here. If they couldn't predict this one, they logically can't
be certain of the next and the next. Or am I missing something? Actually
this storm WAS repeated in the past, on 2 February 1936, described often by
historians as the worst storm of last century. The fact that it was exactly
four moon cycles ago is probably sheer coincidence.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
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16/3/07
Dear Editor
The golden days of summer are perhaps not yet over, despite what forecasters
have predicted in reaction to the week's sudden temperature drop. The cold
snap was due to Tuesday's moon being not only at its southernmost position
for the month, but the furthest point south it reaches all this year. The
previous southernmost point was on 13 February, when another very cold snap
occurred bringing unseasonal wintry temperatures to the far south. The next
southernmost point will be 9 April. The moon's latitudinal position always
brings barometric changes, something modern meteorology has yet to notice.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
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4/2/07
Dear Ed
Our population is growing all the time, and that alone means we are
breathing more and filling the air with CO2. We are industrialised nations,
so industrial growth is essential to our economy, and the emissions must
continue. The greens of this world are not really talking about reducing
emissions, but lifting the foot slightly off the accelerator so the rise is
less fast. Having emissions grow less fast becomes equivalent to reducing
them. So the measures are for what? CO2 is going to eventually increase
despite Kyoto, and forestry sinks will never outpace CO2 output both
anthropogenic and natural because annual bush fires are also part of the CO2
contribution. There is nothing we can do to prevent CO2 output apart from
by completely stopping breathing, running, cooking, driving, working and
eating - immediately. It may be what the green lobby wants for their
children, but not me for mine.
Ken.Ring
West Auckland
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4/1/07
Dear Editor
So..the world is in for the hottest year since records began, according to
the World Meteorological Organisation, and our experts apparently concur. If
untrue then such baseless and inflammatory warnings would be highly
irresponsible. The great news then, is not the prospect of a hottest year,
but that meteorologists can now forecast for more than a day or two ahead,
in fact up to a year. Snow, hail, drought and flood-prone farmers will be
welcoming with open arms this wonderful new farm-saving service. When will
we see the first cyclone prediction of summer?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
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Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If we
take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a year we
have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the average-perigee distance
for the year. Looking at a series of these we can take note that about every
4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer, called a
closeperigee year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to an
8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for about
3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator, then
further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years before
beginning the return journey. Closeperigee years occur when the moon is
passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth bulges into space
more at the equator and so is going to be generally slightly closer to the
moon. The northern hemisphere can expect a big hurricane event in late
October. On the other hand Australia and parts of NZ should experience
extra-high temperatures from late September to November. Spring and early
summer should be warmer than mid and late summer. Next January, February and
March should be mild, not extra hot. By 2008, perigee will have shifted to
the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point between July
2008-December 2008.
This year may be the last for seriously destructive events until 2011, 2015
and 2020.
July 10th P#12 may mostly affect the beginning of the third week of the
month.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some southern places but
leave others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect the days
following.
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MOON IN JULY
1st: Full moon
6th: Crossing Equator
8th: Last Quarter
10th: Perigee #12
13th: Northern Declination
15th: New Moon
20th: Crossing Equator
22nd: Apogee
22nd: 1st Quarter
27th: Southern Declination
30th: Full Moon
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Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
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Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is in shops. It has a bright green
cover.
The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia Almanac is published by Random House
Australia and is available in all Dymocks and Collins bookshops. It covers
152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and in NZ shops, about natural
cycles which account for the major shifts in climate. The book is an attempt
to furnish the reader with tools for weather prediction, both short and long
term. The main cycles of the moon are described and starting hints for
anyone wanting to predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as
how the moon causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the
air is as much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of
different cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected
system that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather
role. The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ. This book
replaces Predicting Weather By The Moon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. This e-zine
is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to
interested parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for
purposes of commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights
Reserved (c) PWL 2007
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CONTACT DETAILS
Editor: Ken Ring,
ph 09-817-7625, mobile 021 970-696
e-mail: enqui-@predictweather.com
Postal: Ken Ring Ltd, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland, 0642, New Zealand.
Internet deposit details: Bank=ASB,
Account name=Ken Ring Ltd, Account number=12-3109-0041109-00 Australian
clients please note, internet deposit incurs massive bank fees for both of
us. Cheques, from Australian banks(no money orders!) are preferred and are
the quickest.
http://www.predictweather.com
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