|
WEATHER EZINE July 18, 2007
|
Ken Ring
|
Jul 18, 2007 12:02 PDT
|
WEATHER EZINE July 18, 2007
Weather By The Moon
------------------------------------------------------------
Current Moon
15th: New moon
20th: crossing equator
22nd: Apogee, 1st Q
General
The colder morning weather continues in Auckland and southern parts of
Australia. Typical new moon phase weather is precipitation at night
followed by pleasant days with rain easing by lunchtime, falling again
if about, at moonset in the evening. Over new moon winter nights the
colder heavier air descends and causes frosts if there is an absence of
cloud and humidity. After new moon comes the intermediate phase called
waxing crescent. It is the moon shape seen in the west in the evening as
a thin banana shape. Without night cloud in the sky it is a colder
period and frost-forming. But temperatures are slowly rising and should
pass a peak about 26th. The next cold snap follows coming when the moon
is in the south, around the 28th of July.
We are also moving towards the foggy part of the moon's month, which is
typically from waxing crescent until just after waxing gibbous (around
the 25th). Cloud is low until halfway through the morning which is when
the moon rises and draws them higher.
The weekend may be good for fishing around dawn and dusk, even though
Sunday may be overcast. The moon will be in 1st Q on Sunday. An old
Maori adage was to 'keep the fish out of the moon', which means by the
afternoon of 1st Q one kept the catch wrapped or cool in a bin, because
the afternoon moon in the sky can affect the fish's freshness. This is
commonsense, because more heat is in the winter air when the moon is
above the horizon.
Weather over next week: for Auckland, mostly dry Wednesday, possible
shower Thursday, Friday cloudy and the odd shower, Saturday generally
fine, Sunday the rain returns, Monday overcast with a bit of rain,
Tuesday misty and also some showers, and Wednesday showers again.
For Wellington, Wednesday mostly dry but cloudy, Thursday warm, mainly
dry, Friday clearer skies, Saturday rain developing, Sunday rain, Monday
rain, Tuesday rain.
For Christchurch, Wednesday cool, frosty, Thursday mainly fine, Friday
fine, frost, Saturday cloud developing, Sunday rain developing, Monday
cloud, possible snow, Tuesday cloudy and breezy.
For Dunedin, Wednesday mostly dry but cloudy, Thursday warm, mainly dry,
Friday clearer skies, Saturday rbuilding cloud, Sunday showers clearing,
Monday cloud again developing, Tuesday showers.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australia this week
The new moon has already brought snow to parts of Victoria and NSW. The
low pressure system responsible for the precipitation moves away from
the SE coast about the 19th followed by cold fronts coming up from the
southern ocean on 20th. These fronts should extend from Tasmania to QLD.
This system moves east by 21st and by 22nd a high sits over the whole
east coast, centered about Brisbane. By 23rd a low bringing rain comes
through SA extending to southern NT. By 24th a low centred on TAS
affects the S Victorian coast, developing into a powerful cyclonic
system by July 25th..
---------------------------------------------------------
Mt Buller in July and August
Snow from July 12th-24th. The 25th-27th should be a dry window with some
sunshine. Snow again in last 4 days of July. Most snow in August comes
9th-11th and 16th-22nd. Time to go in August: 23rd-26th.
------------------------------------------------------------
QLD in July
Most areas have so far been dry. Toowoomba may not get rain this month
except around 21st and 27th. Only 3-4 inches are expected there between
1 July - 30 September. High temps around 20th at Croydon and Weipa.
23rd: Strong SE and Es. A ridge extends from SA
24th: light rain, central inland areas.
28th: cold and windy, light rain in parts of Darling Downs.
29th: light snow Stanthorpe
----------------------------------------------------------
WA in July
Perth and Albany are likely to keep receiving regular July rain. Mt
Magnet and central areas are likely to remain fairly dry this month,
also districts east of Broome. The Kimberleys, De Grey, Pilbara and the
SE should not be hopeful of any above-average rainy months in the
remainder of this year.
18th: light snowfalls to Stirling Ranges
30th: Subtropical ridge south of perth moves northwards to stay for 10
days before moving S until Aug 11th. Over the next two days, a storm
hits Perth.
----------------------------------------------------------
NSW in July
18th: a low with a cold front moves through VIC and NSW bringing patchy
light rain to south and centre districts. Northern districts remain
fine. A cold W or SW airstream follows this front bringing rain and
showers to Central Tablelands. Fogs and frosts inland and on coasts.
20th: possible hail at Cobar.
21st, another cold front passes through but not much rain may eventuate.
Chance of thunderstorm and hail in W Sydney and gales and snow in
Northern Tablelands.
23rd: high winds from Tasman, good for surfers. Mostly fine, some
showers in S and snow on the Highlands. Fogs and frosts in S and central
areas.
26th: cold fronts move through the State over 24 hrs.
27th-29th: cold airstream brings rain/snow and showers to Southern,
Northern and Central Tablelands. Widespread rain. Frosts in western
metroploitan areas next 4 days.
---------------------------------------------------------
July for NZ
The third week of the month brings light relief with only occasional
snowfalls and light winds to Canterbury. Although snow is expected down
to 300m in Westland and Fiordland by 24th, conditions are predominantly
dry, and the North Island snowfields may have difficulty remaining open.
Whakapapa, Turoa and Tukino may need more snow to operate and by
26th-27th only limited skiing conditions may be available.
South winds and unsettled conditions in the last few days of the month
may bring relief to ski operations in the North Island. New snow is
expected overnight around 29th, at Whakapapa (perhaps 10-15cm), and by
30th limited skiing may be possible. By the 31st however, snow and ice
is likely to close the Desert Road once again as another wintery blast
flows up from the south. New snows are likely at Turoa brought by
strong southeasterlies, which brought blizzard-like conditions to mid
Canterbury the day before and scattered snowfalls to Southland.
Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 16th-17th, 19th-20th in the north, 22nd-29th
(heavier 4th, 16th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Western, Central North Is: 16th-29th (heavier 6th, 16th, 22nd, 25th,
29th).
Taupo: 16th, 19th, 22nd-30th(heavier 6th, 22nd, 25th, 29th).
Gisborne, HB: 16th, 22nd-26th, 28th-29th.(heavier 6th, 22nd, 29th) Lower
North Is: 16th, 21st-31st (heavier 6th, 22nd, 26th, 29th).
Nelson and Marlborough: 14th-16th, 22nd-23rd, (heavier 5th, 16th, 22nd)
Canterbury: 14th-16th, 22nd-25th, 29th-31st, (heavier 22nd, 30th)
Otago: 14th-17th,19th, 20th-21st, 27th-28th (heavier 5th, 15th)
Dunedin: 14th-16th, 21st, 24th-31st, (heavier 1st, 5th)
Southland: 14th-21st, 28th-31st, (heavier 5th, 17th) Buller/West
Coast/Fiordland: 13th-23rd, 27th-28th(heavier 5th, 11th, 15th,18th,
22nd, 28th)
JULY
10th-18th: Warmer temperatures than usual. A large southern
anticyclone is blocked until the 14th. Warm moist N's predominate over
the next few days as the anticyclone moves E and a trough of low
pressure moves towards the country from the Tasman Sea. By 15th freezing
central NI temperatures bring ice and fog to roads. A depression which
develops within the trough moves over Southland by the 16th followed by
disturbed W's which may cover the country.
20th-26th: A depression in the Tasman Sea moves slowly E and may deepen
during the next few days. Another depression may form just E of the NI
about the 23rd. From the 22nd, moist N's should affect the NI while
unsettled easterly conditions cover the S and E of the SI.
27th-31st: Both centres of a depression pass to the E of the country by
the 27th, however a trough remains over the country. A number of other
depressions within the trough moves over NZ until the 31st. Unsettled
southerly conditions prevail from the 27th to the 1st of August,
interrupted briefly on the 28th and 29th when NW's flow over the NI
ahead of a cold front. By 29th fog may develop at Hamilton and
Wellington airports. New snow at Whakapapa overnight (perhaps 10-15cm).
By 30th Whakapapa may open for limited skiing. Valley T Bar and Cinder
Track Platter lifts operating.
Centennial Chair Lift and Waterfall Express Quad operating for access
only.
Turoa also open with Giant Chairlift skiable to mid-station and Alpine
31st, but ice and snow may close Desert Road.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around Full
moon (1st and 30th), perigee(10th), New moon (15th), and apogee(22nd)
---------------------------------------------------------------
Southern Hawkes Bay
The drought broke with first good rains on 12 June. The last drought was
1997 and before that 1987/88, true to the lunar pattern that suggests
droughts can be expected in the same district every 9 years.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter Snow report
NZ
Every day from July 20th-August 11th should see subzero minimums in
Queenstown, with the heaviest frosts around the first week of August.
However most days in this interval should stay dry. The third week of
July sees good snowfalls on the central plateau, with no sunny skies
until the beginning of August.
In the SI, precipitation comes again around mid August but is not
longlasting, and another dry spell, lasting about a month, may stretch
from
18 August to 18 September. During this time it could be cold enough for
snow machines, but after 18 September temperatures will probably rise
too quickly to be able to artifically extend the season. In the NI,
August should be mainly dry, although cold, but the first week of
September sees snow falling in the ranges and summits of skifields,
whilst rain may quickly wash away snow at lower levels.
All in all, a good season for colder temperatures but an average season
for natural snow, which is mainly expected to come in June, July and mid
August.
Drier weather should prevail at other times.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 NZ Almanac summarised
In 2007 an increase in NEs will make the top half of the NI wetter and
warmer. However the southern half of the NI and most of the SI will have
a drier and warmer year. Exceptions in the NI will be Gisborne, Napier
and Masterton wetter and warmer, and in the SI Timaru and Oamaru drier
and cooler. April will be the sunniest month..
In 2007 the first half of winter will be the worst, when much rain comes
to the NI and heavy rain and snow for the SI from a destructive cold
snap in the second week of June The first week of July brings another
cold wintry blast. The end of winter in August will be considerably
drier. September to October will be the cloudiest period which will mean
a warmer spring.
In the southern hydrolakes there should be adequate storage levels over
the winter months.
The worst of SI weather will be about mid June. October will be a bad
rain month for the NI, and the top and west of the SI. November will
bring widespread heavy rain to the upper NI. Severe December weather
just before New Years Eve will close the year with some drama.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Southern declination notes
When the moon is in the south, cold southerlies are generated, so in
winter it is southern declination dates that mainly concern us.
The midwinter S dec coincides with full moon, although they are separate
cycles. Last year S decs occurred on June 12th, July 10th, August 6th
and September 3rd. They were the main snow event days.
In 2007 southern declination dates February 13th, March 13th, April 9th,
May 6th, June 2nd and 30th, July 27th, August 23rd, September 20th,
October 17th, November 13th and December 10th.
The below dates may bring increased cold periods in the winter of 2007.
May 8-14 (S dec=6th)
May 27-30 (full moon+Sdec of June 1st/2nd)
June 6-8 (S dec =2nd will kick things off. June 4th-20th
Mercury in cold position (as it was 2006 12th-24th)
June 12-22 (New moon+perigee#9 closest for year)
June 26-30 (S dec =30th)
July 10 (perigee #12)
July 13-15 (new moon+N dec)
July 30-8 Aug (S dec =July 27th)
Aug 23-24 (S dec =23rd)
Aug 30-31 (perigee #10)
Sept 29-1 Oct (full moon+perigee #6)
Oct 7-10 (new moon)
Oct 23-24 (S dec =17th)
Nov 10-13 (S dec+new moon)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------
Letters to NZ Herald
I write regular letters to the editor, although these days mysteriously
none get to print. So I enclose them in this new column.
13/7/07
Dear Editor
It should be noted that the carbon dioxide released when wood is burned
is the same as that absorbed by the tree when it was growing. No more
and no less. It is the same for coal and oil. Therefore no more carbon
dioxide is released into the atmosphere than was removed for the growing
or forming process, so banning open fires because of carbon dioxide
emissions is absurd. Further, the main emissions from a wood-fired plant
consist of water vapour. That is the visible part of the smoke coming
from a chimney. Dark or smelly smoke just means the wood is not burning
completely.
In the past cities were much more polluted from coal fires and factories
but somehow the climate did not change. That aside, there is always
everything to be said for moving factories and heavy trucks away from
residential suburbs. But a city's pollution should not be confused with
a country's climate, and no one ever died from sitting around a
fireplace despite the fact that about half of the world's population is
using biomass as the heating source in their private households. The
danger from dying from the cold is far greater.
Granted, smoke does contain particles of unburned fuel which form as a
result of incomplete combustion and harmful pollutants can trigger
coughs, runny noses, headaches and eye and throat irritation, not to
mention the harm to lung tissue, but one would have to sit so close to
the source that they breathed it all in most of the time instead of
clean air. The same can be said for vehicle exhausts which are fatal if
inhaled. The fact is, most people choose not to stick their noses in
their car's exhaust pipe. Similarly few fireplaces are designed with
seating halfway up the chimney. Carbon monoxide is far more deadly than
smoke from a fireplace but I have not heard of any call to ban all cars.
Lest they be accused of revenue-gathering, councils and government keen
on issuing permits for everything should leave open fireplaces alone. We
have always enjoyed them for free.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
------------------------------------------
1/7/07
Dear Editor
It seems not a day goes past without yet another mention of how doomed
we all are because the planet's temperature may have risen 0.6 of one
degree in the past century. Would it be asking the impossible for this
newspaper to not mention global warming or climate change in just one
edition? I am getting a bit hot and bothered having to hear about it day
after day after day. Besides, it is winter time and some of us find
comfort in warmth.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
------------------------------------------
19/4/07
Dear Editor
It seems a newspaper cannot mention weather, anywhere, anytime, anymore,
without mention also of 'climate-change'. It is like some mantra
belonging to a fundamentalist religion. I remember life b.cc. Weather
happened, and was dealt with until the next lot. Nobody was held to
blame. Certainly nobody was taxed for it. Yet amazingly the world
survived. Scientists were paid to do real research, not just what
pleased the government. The weather was something that was actually
expected to change. Please, can we get back to that?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
--------------------------------------------
18/4/07
Dear Editor
The global warming debate is certainly not over. If a range element is
only 2C above current room temperature a kettle will not heat up,
because when the day cools so will the kettle. A kettle of water weighs
a couple of kilos. We are talking about the air which weighs five
thousand million million tons, being supposedly warmed daily by CO2,
something that is only 1/3000th of the air's volume, through 2C in 100
years, according to the IPCC. That's 100 winters and summers, many
cooler than average, that the extra 2C warmth has to break through. Just
like a stray spark from a fire, any rising CO2 molecule has its heat
stripped off it at 10,000 feet, where it is 0C, above which the
surroundings go into subzero temps. At the top of the troposphere, where
the supposed greenhouse effect operates to reflect heat back down to
earth, it is -57C. Yet the new climate science asks us to believe that
one molecule in 3000 can heat up hundreds of miles of air that is colder
than it gets in Antarctic in autumn(today the S Pole was -54C). One is
therefore left wondering, if atmospheric CO2 can do that, why isn't it
doing it right now to Antarctica?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
----------------------------------------------------
31/3/07
Dear Editor
It is odd to hear NIWA's announcement of rain last as bad 150 years ago,
when in 1857 no countrywide metservice existed. If so, where are the
records? The storm is barely over, and already, according to their
nationwide press statement, NIWA are certain that global warming is to
blame. Yet they didn't predict this one until it was already on us. If
they knew it was coming then where were the stopbanks and frenzied
activities getting well prepared for it? Why is not NIWA accountable for
the lack of warning? Perhaps some metservice accountability for
insurance claims may up their diligence and stop the nonsensical press
releases. That logic will, as usual, not be addressed. Neither will the
equally absurd suggestion that these storms are going to occur more
regularly, now that global warming is supposed to be here. If they
couldn't predict this one, they logically can't be certain of the next
and the next. Or am I missing something? Actually this storm WAS
repeated in the past, on 2 February 1936, described often by historians
as the worst storm of last century. The fact that it was exactly four
moon cycles ago is probably sheer coincidence.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-------------------------------------------------------------
16/3/07
Dear Editor
The golden days of summer are perhaps not yet over, despite what
forecasters have predicted in reaction to the week's sudden temperature
drop. The cold snap was due to Tuesday's moon being not only at its
southernmost position for the month, but the furthest point south it
reaches all this year. The previous southernmost point was on 13
February, when another very cold snap occurred bringing unseasonal
wintry temperatures to the far south. The next southernmost point will
be 9 April. The moon's latitudinal position always brings barometric
changes, something modern meteorology has yet to notice.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-----------------------------------------------------------------
4/2/07
Dear Ed
Our population is growing all the time, and that alone means we are
breathing more and filling the air with CO2. We are industrialised
nations, so industrial growth is essential to our economy, and the
emissions must continue. The greens of this world are not really talking
about reducing emissions, but lifting the foot slightly off the
accelerator so the rise is less fast. Having emissions grow less fast
becomes equivalent to reducing them. So the measures are for what? CO2
is going to eventually increase despite Kyoto, and forestry sinks will
never outpace CO2 output both anthropogenic and natural because annual
bush fires are also part of the CO2 contribution. There is nothing we
can do to prevent CO2 output apart from by completely stopping
breathing, running, cooking, driving, working and eating - immediately.
It may be what the green lobby wants for their children, but not me for
mine.
Ken.Ring
West Auckland
------------------------------
4/1/07
Dear Editor
So..the world is in for the hottest year since records began, according
to the World Meteorological Organisation, and our experts apparently
concur. If untrue then such baseless and inflammatory warnings would be
highly irresponsible. The great news then, is not the prospect of a
hottest year, but that meteorologists can now forecast for more than a
day or two ahead, in fact up to a year. Snow, hail, drought and
flood-prone farmers will be welcoming with open arms this wonderful new
farm-saving service. When will we see the first cyclone prediction of
summer?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------
Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If
we take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a
year we have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the
average-perigee distance for the year. Looking at a series of these we
can take note that about every
4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer, called a
closeperigee year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to
an
8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for
about
3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator, then
further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years
before beginning the return journey. Closeperigee years occur when the
moon is passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth
bulges into space more at the equator and so is going to be generally
slightly closer to the moon. The northern hemisphere can expect a big
hurricane event in late October. On the other hand Australia and parts
of NZ should experience extra-high temperatures from late September to
November. Spring and early summer should be warmer than mid and late
summer. Next January, February and March should be mild, not extra hot.
By 2008, perigee will have shifted to the N hemisphere to reach the
northernmost perigee point between July 2008-December 2008.
This year may be the last for seriously destructive events until 2011,
2015 and 2020.
July 10th P#12 may mostly affect the beginning of the third week of the
month.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some southern places
but leave others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect the days
following.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
MOON IN JULY
1st: Full moon
6th: Crossing Equator
8th: Last Quarter
10th: Perigee #12
13th: Northern Declination
15th: New Moon
20th: Crossing Equator
22nd: Apogee
22nd: 1st Quarter
27th: Southern Declination
30th: Full Moon
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is in shops. It has a bright green
cover.
The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia Almanac is published by Random
House Australia and is available in all Dymocks and Collins bookshops.
It covers
152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in nearly 500-pages.
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and in NZ shops, about
natural cycles which account for the major shifts in climate. The book
is an attempt to furnish the reader with tools for weather prediction,
both short and long term. The main cycles of the moon are described and
starting hints for anyone wanting to predict coming seasons. The
dynamics are there, such as how the moon causes barometric change when
it changes hemispheres, how the air is as much tidal as is the sea and
what happens when the peaks of different cycles engage together. The
moon fits into the interconnected system that we call the cosmos, and
moon, sun and planets play a weather role. The Lunar Code is available
from booksellers throughout NZ. This book replaces Predicting Weather By
The Moon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or
outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information printed here.
This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely
distributed to interested parties provided that the source is
acknowledged; except not for purposes of commercial gain unless
authorised in writing. All Rights
Reserved (c) PWL 2007
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
---
CONTACT DETAILS
Editor: Ken Ring,
ph 09-817-7625, mobile 021 970-696
e-mail: enqui-@predictweather.com
Postal: Ken Ring Ltd, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland, 0642, New
Zealand.
Internet deposit details: Bank=ASB,
Account name=Ken Ring Ltd, Account number=12-3109-0041109-00 Australian
clients please note, internet deposit incurs massive bank fees for both
of us. Cheques, from Australian banks(no money orders!) are preferred
and are the quickest.
http://www.predictweather.com
|
|
 |
|
