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Weather ezine 21 December 2007
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Weatherman
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Dec 21, 2007 12:45 PST
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Weather By The Moon
WEATHER EZINE Dec 21, 2007
Weather By The Moon
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Current Moon
22nd: perigee #7 (7th closest for 2007)
23rd: northern declination(furthest latitude north)
24th: Full moon
MOON IN JANUARY
3rd: Apogee
7th: Southern Declination
8th: New Moon
14th: Crossing Equator
16th: First Quarter
19th: Perigee #10
20th: Northern Declination
23rd: Full Moon
27th: Crossing Equator
30th: Last Quarter
31st: Apogee
General
Full moon and northern declination generally occur together around
December/January. Full moon is seen low in the northern sky around this time
in the southern hemisphere but high in the sky in the northern hemisphere.
The rule is that a country experiencing winter will always have the full
moon in its hemisphere. On the other hand new moon is always in the
hemisphere of a country experiencing summer. Perigee is when the moon passes
closest to earth over a month of 27-days. Close proximity of perigee to full
moon produces warmer conditions, whatever the season and part of the world.
In a northern hemisphere winter the northern declination sends cold polar
air southwards. Juxtaposition to N dec of full moon + perigee lessen the
cold. Full moon+N dec + apogee increase the colder conditions. Currently
full moon+perigee+N dec are occurring together. In the northern hemisphere
it means severe cold will be moderated and places further towards the
equator, where N dec makes less of an impact, may receive mild winter
weather. In the southern hemisphere full moon a day before Xmas means very
muggy conditions are likely in the week of Xmas. New moon temperatures are
generally pleasant in spring and summer, never too hot, compared with full
moon's hot sticky days. Archival Sydney weather statistics can be seen on
the BoM website, and on 26 Oct the date of the October full moon), humidity
was 92%, highest in all October. On 27 Nov (two days after 25th which was
Nov’s full moon ) humidity was 95%, the highest in all November. The NZ
Metservice does not willingly and freely post up NZ archival information, so
we cannot do a parallel exercise. But we can safely conclude that within the
week of Xmas Day and Boxing Day, humidity will be again in the late 90s in
Australia, and the situation will not be too different in NZ.
F+P can bring a milder week to winter and record high temperatures to a
summer. If less than 36 hours apart the combination can also signal a period
of drier weather coming. But this time F and P are about 40 hours apart,
indicative of perhaps a less-than-dry month. This may well be the case for
NZ, with the first half of January looking likely to be rather unsettled for
the NI and for the top and south of the SI.
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Gisborne earthquake
This earthquake has been related to the bad weather going down the east
coast. In latitude, the Gisborne quake matched a low pressure system that
was lying off the E coast but which has now moved away. This is often the
case - the moon affects land, sea and air at the same time. By watching the
L's on the isobaric charts and noting timing proximity to FMs and perigee,
or NMs and Apogee, one can often predict a likely quake hit at or near the
nearest point on the nearest fault line. But the exercise is very time
consuming. The scientists could predict them if they wanted to, but it would
require geologists working with astrologers and I won't hold my breath for
that to happen. Earthquake timing is most often when moon is either
overhead, underfoot or on the horizon. It is perigee tomorrow, and within 4
days of full moon and the moon being the furthest point north. These are
factorial for earthquakes around the world. For instance the Napier
earthquake was full moon day, also N declination and also day of perigee.
The Asian tsunami earthquake was Full moon day also. Proof that the moon is
relevant for earthquakes is easily seen. This Gisborne quake occurred at
8.56pm, within 30 mins of moon being in the midheaven, or the highest point
in the sky over the 24 hrs. There was also a shake at Westport and one at
Matata. The Westport event was at 8am today, within 30 minutes of the moon
being directly underfoot. NZ wasn't the only country to get an earthquake
yesterday - a 5.5 mag occurred in the Solomon Islands and a 4.5 mag occurred
in Mexico. The Mexican event was at 8.35am and again around the moon
underfoot position there.
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Weather coming
NZ
Coming up to Xmas, fine but muggy weather, some perigee wind in some places,
and the weather packing in around Boxing Day. Good fishing from Sunday to
Tuesday, best be there between 12 and 2pm. This summer also promises to be a
warm one, temperatures in December, January and February expected to be
about nearly 1C above normal. It could easily be warmer than last summer,
which was about 1C below normal and ended up being the coldest summer in NZ
for 14 years. The difference this year may be that the amounts of rain we
received last January and much of February should not repeat. January skies
may often be cloudy in the NI though, but February is looking relatively
drier and sunnier. Odd rain days to avoid in February may be about 7th-10th
and around 24th. The best and most settled weather interval may be Feb
10th-18th. The best places in the country to be this summer may be
Canterbury, Wairarapa, Gisborne and Auckland.
JANUARY
January may be a wetter month than average overall. Most rain should be in
the second and last weeks. The driest spell may be between 18th-26th. Places
wetter than the norm in the N Is. may be parts of lower Northland, western
Bay of Plenty, central Plateau and Taranaki southwards in the west. The rest
of the NI regions may be on average or drier. In the S Is, districts
wetter-than-average are likely to be the west coast, the southern
hydrolakes, inland Otago and Invercargill. The rest should be average to
drier. Most of the country should have less sunshine hours than the January
average. Mostly the South Island may be sunnier than normal. Temperatures
across the North Island may be average to cooler, and the same can be said
for most South Island locations, except perhaps Blenheim, Canterbury and
Alexandra. The North Island may get blustery westerlies about 4th and 11th,
and the South Island strong winds about 3rd, 6th, 11th and 21st.
Most likely January rainfall times by region:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st -5th, 9th-13th,15th-17th, 19th-20th, 26th-28th,
31st (heaviest 4th, 11th, 27th, 31st)
Western, Central North Is: 2nd -16th, 20th, 24th-28th, 31st (heaviest 8th,
10th, 15th, 28th)
Taupo: 2nd-4th, 9th-16th, 20th, 26th-28th, 31st (heaviest 9th, 20th)
Gisborne, HB: 2nd-4th, 9th-12th, 16th, 20th, 31st (heaviest 9th, 20th)
Lower North Is: 2nd-4th, 7th-9th, 15th-17th, 19th-20th, 26th-29th (heaviest
15th, 28th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 3rd-4th, 7th-8th, 15th, 20th, 27th-28th (heaviest
15th, 28th)
Canterbury: 3rd-4th, 7th, 11th-12th, 15th-17th, 19th-20th, 27th-28th
(heaviest 3rd, 11th)
Coastal Otago: 2nd-4th, 6th-8th, 13th-16th, 18th-19th, 23rd, 27th-28th
(heaviest 6th, 27th)
Inland Otago: 3rd-7th, 13th-15th, 23rd, 27th-28th (heaviest 6th, 15th, 27th)
Southland: 1st-9th, 12th-16th, 19th-20th, 23rd, 26th-28th (heaviest 5th,
15th, 28th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 1st-9th, 13th-16th, 22nd-28th (heaviest 7th,
15th, 23rd-28th)
January Weather
1st: A trough of low pressure moves onto the country from the Tasman
accompanied by westerlies, and a cool southwesterly airstream follows the
trough from the 3rd.
6th-11th: Southerlies with several cold fronts bring showers to east
followed by an anticyclone. A westerly flow covers New Zealand on the 6th.
Strong Northwesterlies flow over the country on the 8th as a deep depression
passes to the far south of the country. On the 8th south westerlies.
Strong winds through Cook Strait, lighter winds, mostly westerly from the
9th following the passage of a cold front. By 10th, northwesterlies in the
South Island and possible depression over Southland.
The next four weeks should be cloudier than normal over the north of North
Island and drier over the east of South Island.
12th - 17th: On the 12th a weak trough of low pressure covers the country
while an anticyclone lays in the mid Tasman weakening on the 13th as it
moves onto New Zealand. A disturbed westerly airstream flows over much of
the country from the 14th with strong gale northwesterlies through Cook
Strait on the 16th. The 14th may be anticyclonic. A cooler southwesterly
airstream follows by 17th as a deep depression to the far south of the
country moves east. Warmer northerlies 15th and 16th are replaced by
changeable westerlies until the 22nd.
18th – 23rd: A large anticyclone moves onto the country. On the 20th, a
cold front followed by a southerly airstream moves onto the South Island.
South westerlies predominate from the 22nd as a large anticyclone develops
in the Tasman.
24th – 31st: A trough crosses the South Island, more southerlies with
showers to eastern regions. A series of depressions pass to the south of
the country while a ridge of high pressure lays over the north of the North
Island. Westerlies prevail on the 27th and northwesterlies on the 28th
ahead of a depression laying in mid Tasman. Very high temperatures may
arrive for Northland, Auckland, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. The depression
moves south eastward and crosses the south of the South Island by the 29th.
A brief period of southerly conditions follows as the depression moves away.
A southwesterly change brings an anticyclone to the country in the last two
days of the month.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around
apogee(3rd), new moon (8th), perigee(19th) and full moon (23rd).
Warmer summer periods
The first part of this summer 2007/8 should see warmer than average
temperatures and the last part slightly cooler than normal. By February,
perigee accompanies 1st Quarter which will bring higher minimums and warmer
mornings but days that lose heat as the day progresses, and cooler evenings.
So we could be heading into an earlier autumn than in 2007 by about a week.
Overall, expect a warmer summer and a winter that arrives earlier.
December: 14th, 24-26.
January: 19th-23rd .
February: 14th-21st .
March: 14th-22nd .
Best time for holidays
In Dec the week before Xmas.
January sees considerably less sunshine in the NI than the norm.
February is relatively drier and much sunnier, and apart from rain about
7th-10th and around 24th, should be a good month for holidays. The best and
most settled weather interval may be Feb 10th-18th.
1st 2 weeks of March should be mainly dry.
Canterbury is about to start a year that may break sunshine records. North
Canterbury to Dunedin should get plenty of January sunshine. In Cant in
February, 4th-17th could be good holiday weather.
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AUSTRALIA
CHRISTMAS DAY
Most regions can expect a changeable and damp Xmas day this year, except in
the southwestern part of the country which will be mainly fine, because the
rain will be easing from the previous day. It'll be humid and very warm in
some places. The full moon is the day before Xmas, and full moons in summer
are usually some of the warmest periods. Of course these temperatures are
only general indicators. They can vary up to 10degrees.
Darwin: Mainly fine with rain clearing, 33 degrees
Brisbane: Cloudy, with rain threatening, 28 degrees
Sydney: Mainly fine, occasional lingering showers, 26 degrees
Canberra; Mainly fine, isolated showers, 19 degrees
Melbourne; Partly cloudy, scattered showers, unsettled, 17 degrees
Hobart; Scattered showers, cloudy, 18 degrees
Adelaide: Mainly fine, breezy, 20 degrees
Perth: Cloudy, high temperatures, 38 degrees
Alice Springs: Clearing, mainly fine, isolated showers, 31 degrees
Cairns: Cloudy, threatening rain, 31 degrees
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BOXING DAY
Monsoon rain activity will probably be continuing up in Arnhemland and Gove
Peninsular, but generally the rain that bought a damp Xmas Day starts to
ease, still maybe some showers along north and east coasts of the country,
as well as some along the south west coast. Still humid and warm.
Darwin: Partly cloudy, 31 degrees
Brisbane: Heavy rain, downpours, flooding possible, 24 degrees
Sydney: Clearing, light showers, 21 degrees
Canberra: Mainly fine, 21 degrees
Melbourne: Light showers, mostly fine, 18 degrees
Hobart: Mostly sunny, strong winds, 23 degrees
Adelaide: Fine, breezy, 22 degrees
Perth: Overcast, hotter, mainly fine, 31 degrees
Alice Springs: Mainly fine, 30 degrees
Cairns: Cloudy, rain, 31 degrees
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NEW YEAR'S Eve and NY DAY
The northern half of the country has some light scattered shower activity as
a front flows southeasterly across northern WA, the NT and northern QLSD
while the southern half of the country enjoy benefits from a high in the
Bight. Except for some heavy rain in the far N of the country which will
hang around till about the 27th, most of the NT should be mostly fine, also
QSLD, and inland NSW. Also plenty of fine weather in the S of WA, SA,
western VIC and eastern TAS, but Bass Strait coastal regions may get
showers, also in the west of TAS, and coastal parts of NSW and ACT. A warm
airflow passes across the country. The southeast of NSW, VIC and TAS may get
occasional showers from a passing trough including some strong to gale force
winds around the NW of TAS. Temperatures increase.
Norfolk Island may be damp with some heavy rain expected.
Darwin: Fine, 34 degrees
Brisbane: Unsettled, mostly fine, 28 degrees
Sydney: Partly cloudy, showers, 20 degrees
Canberra: Unsettled, changeable, possible showers, 23 degrees
Melbourne: Unsettled, showers, 20 degrees
Hobart: Unsettled, showers, 18 degrees
Adelaide: Unsettled, mostly fine, isolated shower possible, 27 degrees
Perth: Mainly fine, unsettled, 24 degrees
Alice Springs: Cloudy, rain, 36 degrees
Cairns: Fine, 32 degrees
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AUSTRALIA SUMMER RAINFALL PREDICTIONS
For NEW SOUTH WALES
Dec: Very wet along coast. Drier elsewhere
Jan: Moderately drier
Feb: Moderately wetter
VICTORIA
Dec: Very dry
Jan: Very dry
Feb: Extremely wet
QUEENSLAND
Dec: Slightly wetter in north. Drier in south
Jan: Extremely dry
Feb: Extremely dry
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Just dry this month, but getting better in Jan because there's a lot of rain
coming to Pilbara, and Feb near normal rain because of much expected to the
S and SW
Dec: Very dry
Jan: Moderately drier
Feb: Slightly drier
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Ports at Eyre could be wetter, Jan should give you normal rain-especially
wet in the N and NW, Feb slightly drier than normal
Dec: Slightly drier
Jan: Slightly drier
Feb: Moderately drier
TASMANIA
Jan wetter than average- mainly in central districts, and Feb wetter-mainly
in the N and NE.
Dec: Very dry
Jan: Slightly wetter
Feb: Very wet
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2008 for NZ (summarised from Predict Weather Almanac for NZ 2008)
Highlights
Warm and sunnier for the coming summer - temperatures in December, January
and February should be above normal (best places to be will be Canterbury,
Wairarapa, Gisborne and Auckland).
Only one cyclonic event is expected in autumn.
Winter will begin earlier.
Overall quite a wet year, especially in March and August. Northland will
again be vulnerable. Autumn and winter will host significant flood events.
Only one cyclone is expected, in the fourth week of March
Winter will start earlier and finish later. Cold snaps with snow will arrive
in the first week in April and in fourth week in May. The country could see
slightly more rain than average for the year. After a drier-than-average
late summer, autumn, winter and spring may be wettter than normal. December
will then be abnormally drier in the North island only. For the North Island
the wettest month may be March. For the South Island the wettest month may
be May. For the country August should be the wettest month and April the
driest. Average to a degree warmer overall. Slightly sunnier than average in
both islands. Grayest month for all: August
Northland
A drier than average year. But heavy rain warnings that may result in
flooding can be expected at the beginning, middle and end of August
Auckland
A considerably wetter than average year (perhaps by 20%). Most months may
see above average rain. August will be the wettest, April driest
Wellington
A wetter than normal year, the wettest month being March, which will bring
some extreme weather and associated problems.
Christchurch and Dunedin
A drier, sunnier and warmer than average year.
Southern hydrolakes
An average year for rain
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2008 NZ Extreme events Timetable
Jan: widespread rain to both islands in last week
Mar: cyclone 18th-23rd
Apr: sudden wintry cold snap in first week. Heavy rain N Is.19th/20th
May: Flood alert 3rd-11th. Wintry blast 20th for S Is.
June: heavy rain N Is. in first week. Snow event 19th
July: first week; N Is. rain and snow..18th: more snow..30th: much rain
Aug: 14th, much rain in N Is. In last week, heaviest rain of year for N Is.
Sept: heavy rain in far north 12th-17th
Oct: 14th-18th, rain and snow S Is.
Nov: late snow Ruapehu, floods in last week
Dec: heavy rain Auckland and Canterbury midmonth. More rains fill rivers on
28th.
2008 Cyclones
One about 19th March, bringing bad weather about 18th-23rd to all parts of
the NI and may also affect the top of the S Is.
2008 Cold
A cooler winter, with plenty of snow this year. In the S Is, a snow event
each month will please skifield operators, but perhaps not road crews.
April: A sudden cold snap in the first week brings first snow of the season
at Ruapehu which may also reach the Ruahines
May: On 22nd a wintry blast will signal the start of a winter a week earlier
than last year.
June 19th: a big snowfall for all ski-fields
July 3rd: cold snap bringing snow,
July 18th: snow - this may be one of the country’s biggest snow events of
the year.
July 30th: another snow and rain event.
Aug last week: Canterbury rain, sleet, snow and blizzard
2008 Heavy rain
March 18th-23rd, bad weather to all parts of the NI .
April 19th may bring wind and heavy rain to the NI and top of the SI.
May 3rd-11th, a flood alert may be issued due to the abnormally higher tides
fed by rain
June: first week, heavy rain and galeforce winds in the NI from Coromandel
to Wellington.
July 3rd: Most NI places get rain, some snow, and some falls may be heavy
enough to flood flatland.
Aug 14th-17th: much rain in NI, the SI west coast, the top of the SI and the
southern hydrolakes
Aug 26th: heaviest rains of the year for the NI.
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2008 Australia summarised (from Predict Weather For Australia Almanac 2008)
NT: drier than average summer, autumn will be wetter, remainder of year
drier than average by at least 50%, 24% less rainfall for whole year
WA: drier by about 20% overall, every month average or drier except for Oct
which is the only month wetter than average
SA: another average year, with most rain falling July, Aug and Dec, rest of
year average or drier
QLD: similar pattern to NT, drier summer, winter and spring, with autumn and
early winter being wetter times of year. Only 4% difference overall, so only
moderately drier, average rainfall year, most rain falling Mar, Apr and June
VIC: average rainfall year, similar pattern to NSW
TAS: another average year, first half of year wettest months and 2nd half
average to drier months
NSW: year of extreme rainfall fluctuations, overall about 25% less rain than
average, alternating by month as drier/wetter etc, the last 3 months
considerably drier than average. It looks like Jan: drier, Feb wetter, March
drier, Apr wetter, May drier, June wetter, July drier, Aug wetter, Sept
wetter, rest drier.
ACT: average year, wettest months late autumn and through winter, rest of
months average or drier
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Cyclones
Only one cyclonic event is expected in the summer/autumn cyclone season.
This should visit about 19th March, bringing bad weather about 18th-23rd to
all parts of the NI. The next may be November 13th-15th, 2008, December
13th, 2008, and January 9th-11th 2009. As a result, on each of these dates,
tropical cyclones could develop but well to the north. And whether they come
down here is something we can't predict because these systems are closer to
us than the moon, so they tend to get into the driving seat for a while and
take over. Prediction goes a bit awry till they have passed.
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New website
Our reconstructed website has been in development all year and was due to go
live before Xmas, but teething problems have arisen preventing this. Readers
will find all sorts of fascinating features, including the facility to find
weather up to 2010 for most towns in both countries. Meanwhile we are still
offering the longrange service, by email negotiation on
enqui-@predictweather.com . Tell us what place and date you are requiring
a report for.
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New almanacs
The Predict Weather Almanac for New Zealand 2008 has been on sale from
September 19th. This year new features include a fishing bite times diary as
well as the ski and surf diaries, also a temperature trend readout for the
year for main cities. The book is published by Random House NZ and is
available in bookstores throughout the country. Cost: $44
The Predict Weather Almanac for Australia 2008 has also been released. It
runs to 521 pages and covers 152 towns and regions. This year's book also
has new features including ski and fishing diaries, also timetables of
nationwide fogs, frosts, floods, snow, storms, hailstorms, thunderstorms and
gales. Because this year we were obliged to self-publish, the book is not in
the retail distributing system, not available in Australian bookshops, and
must be ordered from our Auckland office. It is not the ideal situation and
we apologise, but our publisher pulled out, no reasons given, even though
the total 2007 print run had been sold.
Orders must be prepaid. Personal cheque is fine. No money orders please,
also no internet deposit – the banks impose an extra $30 for currency
exchange. Cost: $44AUS + postage
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Politics of Fear
The current alarmist report that has humanity at risk because there are too
many of us on the planet is just more rubbish and nonsense that we have come
to expect from politicians and the UN. The facts are that the area of the
world’s land mass is about 50 million sq miles. The world’s population is
about 6 billion. That’s about 100 people per sq mile. Millions already live
in some towns with a density of 60,000 people per sq mile. At that density
all the world’s population could fit into NZ.
Most statements that are made in the popular press and blogs about the
future evolution of the climate system have no solid scientific basis. The
environmental movement, like the war on terror, is premised on a “politics
of fear”. In other words, it tries to unify people by scaring them with
threats to their basic survival. The scariest thing about global warming is
how much more scared the experts are than any of us. But let's look at it.
The idea is global WARMING. But remember, temperature is unknowable.
A thermometer only measures the temperature of itself. Two thermometers
situated within two meters of each other will give two different readings
throughout a day. Having one thermometer at Auckland airport to describe the
temperature value of a city is as silly as a doctor claiming to describe the
body temperature of every Aucklander by positioning one thermometer at the
airport. The reason a doctor puts the thermometer under your tongue is
because doctors have worked out the basic fact that a thermometer measures
immediate thermal values only within 1cm of its bulb, definitely no wider
afield. Meteorologists have yet to catch up with this simple concept. Whilst
the north end of a garden can be warmer than the south end, when a summer
day can cool in a minute when the sun goes behind a cloud, whilst metservice
thermometer sensors do not have arms extending to every microclimatic dip
and mound, we will never have ANY way of determining actual temperatures of
surrounding air in a wide area, let alone determining TRENDS. No one will
ever know the temperature of a city because every mound and hollow, shade
and open field, balcony and footpath, car roof and seat, will display a
different reading. My deck has 6 thermometers all around it, in a close area
of a few metres. They all display different readings almost all the time. As
for coming up with one figure for world temperatures at any one time, to
compare with another at a later time to determine warming..this has to be a
joke. But the laugh is of course on us because if a government can drum up
figures showing a warmer world, they can justify bringing in restrictions
and extra taxes.
Where are all the devastating hurricanes, that Al Gore’s film stated would
keep increasing year after year, gone? As I recall, last year there were
none and so far this year none also. In fact, the people in Georgia have
been praying for a tropical system or two so that they can get enough rain
to fill their reservoirs to avoid running out of drinking water.
Politicians and scientists have people believing that the weather and
climate is somehow influenced by the CO2 in the air. They might look at the
weather-maps - why is it that our weather does NOT come from the factories
in Penrose or Petone nor the cows in the Waikato, nor from the cars driving
through smoggy Newmarket, nor from S Auckland teenagers opening bottles of
CO2-filled fizzy drink. Oh no - it looks very much like the weather comes
from across the Tasman!! So until the TV weather readers say 'well here
comes a rain system, but we think the CO2 from the joggers and the cars and
the cows will swing it to the left', we must conclude that it is NOT
emissions that are the cause or influence of our weather and extreme weather
and any climate change, but something happening over by Australia, because
that is the direction whence our weather clearly comes from. But that means
off to our east there are no countries for us to affect except Chile, a
third of the earth's circumference away across open water. And that means we
are virtually in the clear, because until the direction-of-origin of weather
on our weather-maps changes, our internal emissions cannot possibly affect
weather patterns. We therefore have no need for any restrictions on anything
to do with industry or agriculture..
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Letters to NZ Herald
I write regular letters to the editor of NZ's biggest newspaper, although
mysteriously none get to print. When I rang to complain I was told my
contributions were not welcome as they were too radical. Free speech is a
quaint myth. NZers will probably never get to see The Great Global Warming
Debate, as shown on Channel 4 in Britain and the ABC in Australia.
Politicians here are mortally afraid of public debate. I shall continue to
write them. I enclose them in this column.
21/11/07
Dear Editor
The amount of warming of the globe, according to NIWA, is 1C over the past
8,000 years, and 0.2C over the past 65 years. That is 0.006C per year, which
is outside of the most precision instruments humans have developed. This is
why global warming cannot be established scientifically and why so many are
skeptics. The seas aren't rising, the poles aren't melting (Antarctica and
Greenland ice has been thickening for the past 20 years), the world is not
warming - the southern hemisphere has been cooling since the 1950s. CO2 is
not rising as it is twice as heavy as air, and it is not a pollutant but
necessary to life. Burning fossil fuels does NOT put CO2 into the
atmosphere. It merely puts back what was previously extracted in the
formation of wood, coal, oil and gas.
regards
Ken Ring
19/11/07
Dear Editor
According to Dr Jim Salinger of NIWA, the twelve NZ glaciers; Tasman,
Godley, Murchison, Classen, Mueller, Hooker, Ramsay, Volta/Therma, La
Perouse, Balfour, Grey, and Maud, advanced during most of the 1980s and
1990s, and Franz Josef glacier advanced 170 metres to 2007. See reference
below. Yet Dr Salinger is now saying that these same glaciers have been
retreating for 20 years. Both can't be true.
http://www.niwa.cri.nz/news/mr/2007/2007-11-18-2
Ken Ring
Titirangi
27/10/07
Dear Editor
The current alarmist report that has humanity at risk because there are too
many of us on the planet is just more rubbish and nonsense that we have come
to expect from politicians and the UN. The facts are that the area of the
world’s land mass is about 50m sq miles. The world’s population is about 6
billion. That’s about 100 people per sq mile. Millions already live in some
towns with a density of 60,000 people per sq mile. At that density all the
world’s population could fit into NZ.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
19/10/07
Dear Editor
Although the issue of climate change has been called the greatest problem
facing mankind. scientists are still evenly divided as to whether or not
there is a problem at all, exemplified lately by the ruling of the British
judge that Al Gore's political propaganda film Inconvenient Truth contains
enough fallacies to recommend that it not be shown in schools. The
government-picked NZ Climate Change Leadership Forum is mostly stacked with
representatives from government departments, and business and green
organisations. It is not unexpected that no member of the climate change
skeptical community is represented, but this panel still questions the
government's haste to rush legislation. For that they are to be applauded.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
14/10/07
Dear Editor
The Nobel peace prize is a joke. A previous winner was Yasser Arafat (in
1994), the onetime biggest warlord on the planet. A lady who saved numerous
people from the Holocaust was nominated but Al Gore beat her.
Al Gore received it for what? Misinformation? Where are all the devastating
hurricanes, that Al Gore’s film stated would keep increasing year after
year, gone? Mr Gore is, of course, "deeply honored" to win the $1.5 million
prize, and will be giving his share to the Alliance for Climate Protection,
which is a non-profit organization he founded last year. Yeah right.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
13/10/07
Dear Editor
We are told by Oscar-winning documentarist and Nobel Prize winner Al Gore
that Man is responsible for weather. They wouldn't award this million dollar
honour to someone putting out misinformation, so we must conclude that as
weather comes from the west it is emissions from the cars and chimneys in
Australia that cause our weather.
Off to our east there are no countries for us to affect except Chile. That
means we are virtually in the clear, because our internal emissions cannot
possibly affect our weather patterns.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
26/9/07
Dear Herald Editor
Previous eruptions on Mt Ruapehu have occurred on or near new and full
moons. Research overseas, for example Moscow University, has well
established that most eruptions/ earthquakes/volcanoes occur around new or
full moons, with more around full Moons. The day of the Napier earthquake,
was 3 Feb, 1931, a full moon day. Recent examples of full moon eruptions on
Ruapehu have been Oct 11-13, 1997, Aug 26, 1999, and Sept 27, 1999. The
recent lahar on 18 March 2007 was on a new moon day, as were the eruptions
of 27 Sept, 1995 and 2 Oct 1997. Today, the 26 Sept., the day of latest
eruption, just happens to be the evening of this month's full moon. Might
geologists and astronomers be persuaded to compare notes?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
30/8/07
Dear Editor
It was stingy reporting for yesterday's front page header under the photo of
the eclipsing full moon to read "a break in the clouds meant most of NZ was
treated to a rare red moon last night." Really? The country is nearly two
thousand kms long. That's some break! Or was the Herald trying to preserve
its incorrect forecast of the day before, which read "..unsettled weather is
forecast for the total lunar eclipse"; implying that there was only a slim
chance of anyone seeing the event? Meteorologists seem not to know that
despite what happens during the day, the night sky is typically clear on the
actual night of full moon, which is why we see it in all its glory. Last
night was no exception and the five-hour event could be seen perfectly from
most parts of the country. A break in the clouds indeed!
Ken Ring
Titirangi
31/7/07
Dear Editor
So the Fart Tax may be reintroduced by government under a new name.
ref: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4146637a3600.html
The same objections still exist. Methane is not a problem as it is
inflammable and lightning instantly whiffs it away. All gases disperse, they
do not accumulate. In one burp one whale pumps forty times the methane of
one cow into the atmosphere, yet no one is suggesting whales might be
wrecking the planet.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
30/7/07
Dear Editor
So according to our scientists and our government, climate change due to
acts of man is now to blame for any increase in extreme weather. This means
that calamities can no longer be defined as Acts of God so now must be
totally covered by insurance. Legislation for this would be an act of
kindness.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-----------------------------------------
24/7/07
Dear Ed
On 5 June this year this newspaper printed an article quoting the National
Climate Office as saying there would be "little sign of a cold snap in the
next couple of months". The next day when it snowed heavily forecasters said
the cold snap would not last. Responding to public howls about incompetency,
it was publicly admitted in the media on the 6th by the chief climatologist
that forecasting was only ever half right. By then the first flurry of
wintry cold weather had already hit Southland and was working its way up the
country. Gusts of around 100km/hr buffeted Invercargill. By the 7th, two
days after the official prediction of no cold for two months, the whole of
New Zealand was reaching for the thermals. Southland's polar blast delivered
snow, high winds, lightning and, to more than 600 households and businesses,
power cuts. By the 8th the wintry blast had caused havoc in Coastal Otago,
with many roads closed or snowaffected. Schools closed and more than 100
South Otago customers spent the day without power. Wintry cold snaps have
not left the South Island since. The same climate agency which could not
predict beyond one day is warning us that global warming will bring such
extreme weather in 50 years time that restrictive measures must be taken now
for the planet to be saved.
The problem is not just local. Forecasters in Britain have miserably failed
to adequately warn of the worst floods in 60 years for Gloucestershire and
now 10,000 are homeless and 45,000 without power. But in year 2000, floods
in southern England were equally as bad, remember Cornwall? - also 1947 when
3,000 properties were flooded in Oxford alone, and some 1,000 km2 (386 mi2)
of farmland was under water for up to three months. Most of Britain was
covered in flood waters in 1852, 1875 and 1894. For instance, in 1894, up to
75 mm (3 inches) of rain fell every day in southern Britain between October
23 and November 16, leading to severe flooding throughout central and
southern England. The difference is that now they are bleating on that
global warming due to driving SUVs and flying in aeroplanes is somehow to
blame for floods. The biggest danger comes not from the weather but from
unwarranted and unhelpful alarmist hysteria. Yes, we do need to be saved.
From that.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-------------------------------------------------
13/7/07
Dear Editor
It should be noted that the carbon dioxide released when wood is burned is
the same as that absorbed by the tree when it was growing. No more and no
less. It is the same for coal and oil. Therefore no more carbon dioxide is
released into the atmosphere than was removed for the growing or forming
process, so banning open fires because of carbon dioxide emissions is
absurd. Further, the main emissions from a wood-fired plant consist of water
vapour. That is the visible part of the smoke coming from a chimney. Dark or
smelly smoke just means the wood is not burning completely.
In the past cities were much more polluted from coal fires and factories but
somehow the climate did not change. That aside, there is always everything
to be said for moving factories and heavy trucks away from residential
suburbs. But a city's pollution should not be confused with a country's
climate, and no one ever died from sitting around a fireplace despite the
fact that about half of the world's population is using biomass as the
heating source in their private households. The danger from dying from the
cold is far greater.
Granted, smoke does contain particles of unburned fuel which form as a
result of incomplete combustion and harmful pollutants can trigger coughs,
runny noses, headaches and eye and throat irritation, not to mention the
harm to lung tissue, but one would have to sit so close to the source that
they breathed it all in most of the time instead of clean air. The same can
be said for vehicle exhausts which are fatal if inhaled. The fact is, most
people choose not to stick their noses in their car's exhaust pipe.
Similarly few fireplaces are designed with seating halfway up the chimney.
Carbon monoxide is far more deadly than smoke from a fireplace but I have
not heard of any call to ban all cars.
Lest they be accused of revenue-gathering, councils and government keen on
issuing permits for everything should leave open fireplaces alone. We have
always enjoyed them for free.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
------------------------------------------
1/7/07
Dear Editor
It seems not a day goes past without yet another mention of how doomed we
all are because the planet's temperature may have risen 0.6 of one degree in
the past century. Would it be asking the impossible for this newspaper to
not mention global warming or climate change in just one edition? I am
getting a bit hot and bothered having to hear about it day after day after
day. Besides, it is winter time and some of us find comfort in warmth.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
------------------------------------------
19/4/07
Dear Editor
It seems a newspaper cannot mention weather, anywhere, anytime, anymore,
without mention also of 'climate-change'. It is like some mantra belonging
to a fundamentalist religion. I remember life b.cc. Weather happened, and
was dealt with until the next lot. Nobody was held to blame. Certainly
nobody was taxed for it. Yet amazingly the world survived. Scientists were
paid to do real research, not just what pleased the government. The weather
was something that was actually expected to change. Please, can we get back
to that?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
--------------------------------------------
18/4/07
Dear Editor
The global warming debate is certainly not over. If a range element is only
2C above current room temperature a kettle will not heat up, because when
the day cools so will the kettle. A kettle of water weighs a couple of
kilos. We are talking about the air which weighs five thousand million
million tons, being supposedly warmed daily by CO2, something that is only
1/3000th of the air's volume, through 2C in 100 years, according to the
IPCC. That's 100 winters and summers, many cooler than average, that the
extra 2C warmth has to break through. Just like a stray spark from a fire,
any rising CO2 molecule has its heat stripped off it at 10,000 feet, where
it is 0C, above which the surroundings go into subzero temps. At the top of
the troposphere, where the supposed greenhouse effect operates to reflect
heat back down to earth, it is -57C. Yet the new climate science asks us to
believe that one molecule in 3000 can heat up hundreds of miles of air that
is colder than it gets in Antarctic in autumn(today the S Pole was -54C).
One is therefore left wondering, if atmospheric CO2 can do that, why isn't
it doing it right now to Antarctica?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
----------------------------------------------------
31/3/07
Dear Editor
It is odd to hear NIWA's announcement of rain last as bad 150 years ago,
when in 1857 no countrywide metservice existed. If so, where are the
records? The storm is barely over, and already, according to their
nationwide press statement, NIWA are certain that global warming is to
blame. Yet they didn't predict this one until it was already on us. If they
knew it was coming then where were the stopbanks and frenzied activities
getting well prepared for it? Why is not NIWA accountable for the lack of
warning? Perhaps some metservice accountability for insurance claims may up
their diligence and stop the nonsensical press releases. That logic will, as
usual, not be addressed. Neither will the equally absurd suggestion that
these storms are going to occur more regularly, now that global warming is
supposed to be here. If they couldn't predict this one, they logically can't
be certain of the next and the next. Or am I missing something? Actually
this storm WAS repeated in the past, on 2 February 1936, described often by
historians as the worst storm of last century. The fact that it was exactly
four moon cycles ago is probably sheer coincidence.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-------------------------------------------------------------
16/3/07
Dear Editor
The golden days of summer are perhaps not yet over, despite what forecasters
have predicted in reaction to the week's sudden temperature drop. The cold
snap was due to Tuesday's moon being not only at its southernmost position
for the month, but the furthest point south it reaches all this year. The
previous southernmost point was on 13 February, when another very cold snap
occurred bringing unseasonal wintry temperatures to the far south. The next
southernmost point will be 9 April. The moon's latitudinal position always
brings barometric changes, something modern meteorology has yet to notice.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-----------------------------------------------------------------
4/2/07
Dear Ed
Our population is growing all the time, and that alone means we are
breathing more and filling the air with CO2. We are industrialised nations,
so industrial growth is essential to our economy, and the emissions must
continue. The greens of this world are not really talking about reducing
emissions, but lifting the foot slightly off the accelerator so the rise is
less fast. Having emissions grow less fast becomes equivalent to reducing
them. So the measures are for what? CO2 is going to eventually increase
despite Kyoto, and forestry sinks will never outpace CO2 output both
anthropogenic and natural because annual bush fires are also part of the CO2
contribution. There is nothing we can do to prevent CO2 output apart from
by completely stopping breathing, running, cooking, driving, working and
eating - immediately. It may be what the green lobby wants for their
children, but not me for mine.
Ken.Ring
West Auckland
------------------------------
4/1/07
Dear Editor
So..the world is in for the hottest year since records began, according to
the World Meteorological Organisation, and our experts apparently concur. If
untrue then such baseless and inflammatory warnings would be highly
irresponsible. The great news then, is not the prospect of a hottest year,
but that meteorologists can now forecast for more than a day or two ahead,
in fact up to a year. Snow, hail, drought and flood-prone farmers will be
welcoming with open arms this wonderful new farm-saving service. When will
we see the first cyclone prediction of summer?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weather for Dublin
Interview News TodayFM, Dublin, 22 Aug, 2007, host Angela
What is going on?
What is going on is a repeat of 1980 and 1989 when the perigees and new
moons occur together in your SPRING time instead of winter and create colder
weather when the season is expecting warmer weather. The perigees and full
moons start to come together at the end of September which for us means a
warmer spring but for you a milder autumn. You are heading towards less cold
winters and milder summers, with the seasons becoming more even. It's
nothing whatever to do with global warming - because here in the southern
hemisphere WE had THAT trend in 2003 and 2004 and now we're going the other
way and heading towards long hot summers and colder winters, which you had
in those years, so there is no global trend to weather because we all
inhabit the same globe.
But isn't it climate change?
You're not getting any more or less rain than you've always had in the past.
Ireland is certainly not normally like the south of France or Cyprus. Last
year, if people remember, June wasn't too bad, 17 dry days, but half of
July's days were wet, and August had only 10 dry days. So altogether 41 dry
days and 48 wet days from June to Aug, meaning it was wetter more than it
was dry
This year its been June 10 dry days, .July 3 dry days, and so far 6 dry days
in Aug which makes 19 dry days out of the past 83, about half as many dry
days as last year and twice as many wet ones. But LAST year Sept and Oct
each only served Dublin 10 dry days, and in Nov you had only 8 dry days.
People have short memories.
Climate change is simply not good English. The word 'Climate' refers to
latitude, and latitude doesn't change all that much. That's why County Clare
would have a similar climate/temperature range to Amsterdam, because the
latitudes are roughly similar. So "climate change" is a nonsense expression.
I usually say, don't you mean weather change?.
What is coming up?
Wed 22nd, dry
Thurs 23rd, dry and warm over Ireland
Fri 24th, hot again
Sat 25th, dry, warm
Sun 26th, dry and warm, hot in the north
Mon 27th, dry, cooler
Tues 28th, dry, cooler
Wed 29th, starting to look threatening
Thurs 30th, cloudy in Dublin but drier in N Ireland and Scot
Fri 31st, dry everywhere
September
Expect about 7 dry days
Aug 27-Sept 1 quite dry, 2-4 fog and rain, 5-7 dry, 8-9 rain, 10 dry, 11-18
rain, 19 dry, 20-23 wet, 24 dry, 25-27 rain,
October
Expect about 15 dry days, especially in the last week
3-6 dry, 14th-15th it should be dry, warm and pleasant, also 23-28,
but BUT THEN there's almost constant rainy days right to Nov 21, the last
week in November.
November
Expect 3 dry days
A gloomy and wet month. At the end it will be cool and will feel like winter
has arrived early. Nov 29-30 dry.
December
Expect 8 dry days
It may be wet in the first week, with some odd dry days. Dec 9-15 should be
dry, And wet from 16th onwards. So.. a cold and wet Xmas and an early
winter, which may make people jump to conclusions about ALL winter, which
won't be correct. Late winter may be quite warm and spring may turn out to
be cold.
How many snow days?
Expect only 6 snow days
It should be wet until Jan 14, then snow in middle of January, on 13th/14th
also again at or near 29th/30th
There should be little or no snow in February
Expect two days of snow March 8th-9th
Ahead to 2008
Jan, 12 dry days, especially the last 7
Feb, 4 dry days
Mar, 17 dry days, especially the last week
Apr, 17 dry days: the first 10 days should be dry, also 16th-19th, 21st-25th
May, 12 dry days, especially 25th to 31st
June, all days wet until July 20th then 2 dry days, then dry on 23rd/24th
A wet and gloomy autumn, then a mild winter, then a mild summer.
So this summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as some summers have been
in recent years. Heat waves may be rare. The real reason for the seasons
change is just that it is part of a grand cycle of seasons grinding its slow
way forward. There are several repeating combinations.in which sun, moon and
planetary cycles coincide in an endless repetition. Part of the cycle is
36-38 years.
How do we compare to other countries in the Northern hemisphere?
I don't monitor them all, but places differ because they have different
geographical personalities.The whole earth rotates under the moon in 24
hours, so the moon factors I mentioned before apply everywhere. Some are
nearer the coast, some more elevated, which is why Europe is cooler than the
UK even though Europe is closer to the equator, some are warmed by things
like the Gulf Stream, some are south or north facing. But generally the
whole N hemisphere is tending towards more even seasons for the next few
years. The US has just begun its hurricane season, that's because hurricanes
begin near the equator at certain times of the year, namely Aug-Oct for the
Northern hemisphere and Feb-Apr or May for the Southern hemisphere. It is
not unusual, it is normal. What would be unusual would be for a Cat 5
hurricane in say, January.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------
Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If we
take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a year we
have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the average-perigee distance
for the year. Looking at a series of these we can take note that about every
4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer, called a
closeperigee year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to an
8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for about
3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator, then
further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years before
beginning the return journey. Close perigee years occur when the moon is
passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth bulges into space
more at the equator and so is going to be generally slightly closer to the
moon. The northern hemisphere can expect a big hurricane event in late
October. On the other hand Australia and parts of NZ should experience
extra-high temperatures from late September to November. Spring and early
summer should be warmer than mid and late summer. Next January, February and
March should be mild, not extra hot. By 2008, perigee will have shifted to
the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point between July
2008-December 2008.
This year may be the last for seriously destructive events until 2011, 2015
and 2020.
July 10th P#12 may mostly affect the beginning of the third week of the
month.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some southern places but
leave others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect the days
following.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Has the Weather Changed?
Weather patterns have not changed. The weather always changes because that
is the nature of nature. But the climate remains the same. However, some
have decided that along with all the talk about climate change it does
appear that in some areas, for instance perpetually sunny Mangawhai, at
least days may have suddenly gone gloomy. But people have short memories.
Climatologists at NIWA, echoed loudly by the prime minister recently said
that Kaeo used to have 1:100 year floods but this pattern has now changed. I
say this is incorrect. Ask a Northland farmer what the weather patterns are
in the region and a typical answer is that there are usually two seasons,
wet and wetter. Northland is renowned for rain - and flooding, more than
once a year on historical average. Pick any period, say from 1920-1930.
Great and devastating floods occurred throughout the Northland region on Mar
1920, Apr 1923, Apr 1924, May 1924, May 1925, May 1926, Aug 1926, July 1927,
Apr 1928, May 1928, Nov 1929 and Feb 1930. For instance, on 28 March 1920
Maungaturoto received 100mm of rain in 12 hours. Was that a wet decade? No,
it was a relatively dry one! The 1930s saw 34 major flood events in the
north. The 1940s saw 38 major flood incidents. The 1950s saw 26 floods just
in the period 1950-1953. We built our pioneer towns along and beside the
rivers before we had roads. We did it for transport and because the lowland
was more fertile. Floods are part of our historical past. Blaming floods on
climate change, global warming, pollution, or Al Queda will continue to be
unhelpful and completely fiscally wasteful. Councils reclaim land to put up
housing developments because they gain revenue from more ratepayers. This
enables expansion and contributes to regional prosperity. The bigger short
term take is more important than the future flood worry. Returning flatlands
to marshes of mangroves is what is needed in some areas to absorb extra
flows of water. And Nature will eventually do it even if man doesn’t.
A drought or a flood will occur roughly every 9 years in the same place, and
this is about half the lunar tide cycle of 18.6 years. Gloomy winter skies,
rain, and even floods should not be regarded as anything more unusual than
other winter weather. Regulatory bodies should ignore fantasies and
hand-wringing about climate change and what will happen in 50 years time.
They should not worry over who is lighting open fires and whether or not
that is putting carbon dioxide into the air because when a log is burned it
merely puts back CO2 that was absorbed from the atmosphere during the
growing process. It is the same with coal, oil and gas. Forget Kyoto, forget
greenhouse, forget Al Gore. All the resources of councils should be directed
towards flood management, actually expecting at least one flood each winter,
not only because that has always been the reality of weather in the North
but also because the economic cost and inconvenience of the disaster of not
being able to get to work in a rural area is far greater than having to undo
a top shirt button because the climate is a fraction warmer. Perhaps we need
to look up the actual historical data for Northland before deciding whether
or not weather patterns are changing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
When they say most scientists - sorry, they're wrong
No one is denying that the earth has been warming, but the earth has warmed
only 1C over 8,000 years, 0.6C over the last hundred, and a net 0.2 degrees
C of net warming over the 67 years since 1940. Even the IPCC seem to be in
agreement on this. Most level-headed people would not be thrown into a blind
panic over that miniscule increase. Human-emitted CO2 gets the blame for
only half of that—or 0.1 degree C of warming over 67 years. And we've had no
warming at all since 1998. Journalists should resist the temptation to
portray global warming as a morality tale—as NEWSWEEK recently did—in which
anyone who questions its gravity or proposed solutions may be ridiculed as a
fool, a crank or an industry stooge. Dissent is, or should be, the lifeblood
of a free society.
But if there's anything climate-change crusaders are adamant about, it is
that the science of the matter is settled. That greenhouse gases emitted
through human activity are causing the planet to warm dangerously, they say,
is an established fact; and only a charlatan would claim otherwise. In the
worlds of Al "polar bear" Gore: "There's no more debate. We face a planetary
emergency..there is no more scientific debate among serious people who've
looked at the evidence." In NZ wherever he went, hoping the Greens were
listening, the former Minister of the Environment Pete Hodgson was fond of
repeating, 'the science is undeniable'. Without any knowledge of or previous
career in science, the current minister David Parker repeats this mantra
whenever he can. But many of us, especially proper scientists, would argue
that in science there is no such thing as a final word. If you think there
is you may be a cook, a dog handler or a flight steward but you are not a
scientist. Results that had been taken for rock-solid are always sooner or
later revisited and found incomplete, or are qualified, or even debunked.
And scientists and other "serious people" who question the global warming
disaster narrative are not hard to find. Last year 60 of them sent a letter
to Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada, urging him to undertake "a
proper assessment of recent developments in climate science" and disputing
the contention that "a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the
cause." Among those signing the letter to Harper were Professor Fred Singer,
the former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; Ian Clark,
hydrogeology and paleoclimatology specialist at the University of Ottawa;
Hendrik Tennekes, the former director of research at the Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute; physicist Freeman Dyson of the Institute for
Advanced Studies in Princeton; the University of Alabama's Roy Spencer,
formerly senior scientist in climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight
Center in Huntsville, Ala., plus 55 other specialists in climate science and
related disciplines. So..the debate among scientists is over? NASA
administrator Michael Griffin told National Public Radio in May that while
the general trend of global warming exists, that doesn't make it "a problem
we must wrestle with." To insist that any change in climate must be bad news
"is to assume that the earth's climate today is the optimal climate, the
best climate that we could have." The planet's temperature has been
fluctuating for millennia, he added. "I don't think it's within the power of
human beings to assure that the climate does not change."
Plainly, the science isn't settled. It changes all the time. Take the
discovery this month that 1934, not 1998, was the hottest year in the
continental United States since record-keeping began. NASA's Goddard
Institute for Space Studies quietly changed its ranking after a Canadian
statistician discovered an error in the official calculations. Under the new
data, five of the 10 hottest US years on record occurred before 1940; three
were in the past decade. But where science is continually revising, the
claims of politicians like Al Gore and our equally uninformed local
politicos remain unchanged. The Greenland ice sheet is not receding: it
would appear to have experienced no net loss of mass over the last decade
for which data are available. Quite to the contrary, in fact, it was likely
host to a net accumulation of ice, found to be producing a 0.03 ± 0.01
mm/year decline in sea-level.
Climate scientists are still trying to get the basics right. The latest
issue of Science magazine notes that many researchers are only beginning to
factor the planet's natural climate variations into their calculations. Up
till now nature wasn't even in the picture. man was influencing the climate,
they made computer models only factoring in emissions levels and that was
that. There is no scientific consensus on how much the world has warmed or
will warm; how much of the warming is natural; how much impact greenhouse
gases have had or will have on temperature; how sea level, storms, droughts,
floods, flora, and fauna will respond to warmer temperature; what mitigative
steps – if any – we should take; whether (if at all) such steps would have
sufficient (or any) climatic effect; or even whether we should take any
steps at all. Scientists..huh? The UN’s latest report on climate change,
which is claimed as representing and summarizing the state of the scientific
“consensus” insofar as there is one, NOW says that the total contribution of
ice-melt from Greenland and Antarctica to the rise in sea level over the
whole of the coming century will not be the 20 feet luridly illustrated by
Al Gore in his movie, but just 2 inches. Gore’s film does not represent this
so-called consensus at all. Indeed, he exaggerates the supposed effects of
ice-melt only by some 12,000%. Every time the BBC mentions “climate change”,
it shows the same tired footage of a glacier calving into the sea – which is
what glaciers do every summer.
In reality global temperatures have stopped rising. Data for both the
surface and the lower air show no warming since 1999. That makes no sense by
the hypothesis of global warming driven mainly by CO2, because the amount of
CO2 in the air has gone on increasing. But the fact that the Sun is
beginning to neglect its climatic duty -- of batting away the cosmic rays
that come from 'the chilling stars' -- fits beautifully with this apparent
end of global warming. Cumulatively since the early 1990s and conservatively
(since the balance is likely still positive), there has been no net loss of
mass from the Greenland ice sheet. Nevertheless, to hear Al Gore and his
acolytes talk nowadays, one would think the Greenland Ice Sheet is teetering
on the verge of extinction, melting rapidly and all but "slip-sliding away"
into the ocean, where its unleashed water will raise global sea levels to
heights that will radically alter continental coastlines and submerge major
cities. Under the waves will be the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Manhattan,
London, Shanghai, and most Australian and NZ coastal towns and cities. But
the inconvenient truth is that whatever the rest of the Northern Hemisphere
may be doing, especially where reporters go to interview Inuit Eskimos about
changing ice patterns, the part that holds the lion's share of the
hemisphere's ice has been cooling for the past half-century, and at a very
significant rate, making it ever more unlikely that its horde of frozen
water will be released to the world's oceans to raise havoc with global sea
level any time soon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yawning and Sleeping to Spread Awareness about Climate Change
One is entitled to one’s opinion, but one is not entitled to one’s own
facts.
What does 'temperature' actually mean? In any metservice recording station
in the course of a day only two readings are taken, the maximum and the
minimum. These are added and halved to find the "mean." Suppose for station
X the maximum today is 25C, taken at say, 3pm. Suppose the minimum is 5C,
taken at 6am. The mean, or average, is 25+5 divided by 2, or 15C. But 15C
may NOT have been the average for the day at all, especially if the maximum
of 25C only lasted for five minutes around 3pm, and the minimum only held at
5C for two minutes, and most of the rest of the day sat on around 18C.
Suppose it is summertime. Temperatures can change within a minute when the
cloud comes over and obscures the sun. But temperature readings are NOT
snapped every minute. A digital system could do that today, but doesn’t, and
we didn't have manpower to do it in a pre-computer era. How then do we know
what average temperatures prevail, not only for one place but for only a few
feet away? It is impractical to set up data-gathering stations every few
metres. There is also altitude variation where a mound a few feet higher can
have its own microclimate. The top of a garden might be warmer than the
bottom. Gardeners know this and plant accordingly. In short, no one knows
what daily averaged temperature a location has, because our instruments do
not measure it. We have no way of knowing if we are warming or cooling, as a
town, a country or a globe, over a year, a century or “since records began”.
We only know what we have made instruments to do, not what nature is
actually doing.
NIWA’s website is in agreement with the IPCC, in that the globe has warmed
0.6 of a degree over the past century and by just one degree in total over
the past 8,000 years. If true then there is little to worry about because
every single day goes through a temperature variation maximum to minimum of
about ten degrees and over many thousands of years Man has already found
ways to cope with this phenomenon. The Earth seems to know what it is doing
and has remarkably all by itself orchestrated ice ages and interglacials
without our help. Oh yes, we have thermometers, but they were only invented
about 300 years ago initially as a plaything of the rich. About 200 years
ago they began employ in weather forecasting. Until the digital age the old
thermometers were made of glass and could not read tenths, so a global 0.6C
rise over a century is just a guess. Scientists think that if you put a
decimal point in something it will not be disputed. Satellites have been
recording temperatures since 1979, arguably too recent for a global
perspective spanning centuries. Few temperature readings are gathered from
the icecaps, the deserts, the craggy mountain tops, the swamps and the
uninhabited islands, let alone the sea, which alone covers 76% of the
earth's surface. So we are left with the ground-based stations. These are
all around cities, mainly at airports or on top of schools or post offices.
They are in high density suburbs and main streets for convenient access and
maintenance. The equipment is housed in white boxes with wooden vanes all
around. Cities have become steadily warmer over the past century, with the
increase and expansion of reflective glass, asphalt and vehicle fumes.
Moreover, the difference between town and country temperature can be
anything up to 5C. If you have a vehicle-dash thermometer, watch it drop the
next time you leave a big city. To only measure urban areas is not
representative of the globe.
As if this wasn't 'globally' unrepresentative enough there has always been a
tendency to shift these temperature recording boxes to the WARMEST parts of
the city. Whoever can boast the best climate can attract more tourists and
their money not to mention retired couples looking for a warmer environment
to live in and invest their savings. So they put thermometers next to air
conditioners, sewerage treatment plants, airport tarmacs and parking lots.
Already New Plymouth, Kerikeri, Wanganui, Kaikoura, Rotorua and Napier have
downtown temperature recorders and other councils are considering it. In
Napier there is an agreement to supply radio and TV with the daily
temperature from either the airport or mid-city Nelson Park stations,
whichever is the HIGHER. NIWA's carbon dioxide measuring apparatus can
readily be seen a few feet from the ground (tail-pipe exhause level) beside
the NIWA building which is situated on the Mountain Rd corner halfway up
Khyber Pass, the busiest, fumiest road in the whole country. It is right
beneath the motorway overpass. You could be forgiven for thinking that
people who used such unscientific techniques could not possibly be true
scientists, let alone the nation's spokespeople on climate trends. But this
is where they get their ‘evidence’ of ‘global warming’ from. Yes, it may be
happening, equally it may not be. And next week I may win Lotto, equally I
may not. I would be a real nutter to invest billions in the situation just
in case.
And there is more. Ask any geologist - As it has been 11,000 years since the
last Ice Age geologists say we are now on the way to the next. Weird as it
may seem, the polar ice sheet expands and contacts because of variations in
the Earth's orbit (Google Milankovitch cycles) and not because of what
lightbulbs humans are using.
The real catastrophe is the erosion of what we used to call freedom and what
we used to call science, because freedom is becoming undermined by
over-regulating governments and science is becoming hijacked by business and
politics. As poles gently shift and countries find themselves at different
latitudes the climate will always change, over thousands of years. But it
won’t fall over because humans decide not to walk to work or recycle
plastic. It’s a pretty safe bet that volcanoes will continue putting CO2 in
the air, the glorious sun will shine and the rains follow to wet the Earth,
long after the dust of many centuries has blown over all our graves.
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--
Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------
Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ
The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia Almanac
Predict Weather Almanac NZ 2008
Predict Weather for Australia 2008
The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and in NZ shops, about natural
cycles which account for the major shifts in climate. The book is an attempt
to furnish the reader with tools for weather prediction, both short and long
term. The main cycles of the moon are described and starting hints for
anyone wanting to predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as
how the moon causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the
air is as much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of
different cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected
system that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather
role. The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ. This book
replaces Predicting Weather By The Moon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. Allow an
error of up to 2 days for all forecasts. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested
parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of
commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights
Reserved (c) PWL 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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