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WEATHER EZINE Dec 30, 2007
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Weatherman
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Dec 29, 2007 20:23 PST
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Weather By The Moon
The Truth about Weather and Climate
WEATHER EZINE Dec 30, 2007
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Current Moon
30th: crossing equator heading south
31st: last quarter
3rd: apogee
7th: southern declination
8th: new moon
MOON IN JANUARY
3rd: Apogee
7th: Southern Declination
8th: New Moon
14th: Crossing Equator
16th: First Quarter
19th: Perigee #10
20th: Northern Declination
23rd: Full Moon
27th: Crossing Equator
30th: Last Quarter
31st: Apogee
Moon notes
At the moment we have a last quarter moon heading south. This has dragged
down the cyclonic system in the NE of Australia, having formed at the time
of full moon about Xmas eve/day. The further from full moon it gets, the
less force it contains. The system should move east into the Pacific and
away from the Australian continent around new years day. Last quarter moon
is a night moon, not rising until midnight. With the moon out of the daytime
sky and the air height lower, the sun causes warmer afternoons than, say,
first quarter days. This in turn causes more evaporation, which has to fall.
Rain usually ensues a couple of days after a summer last quarter in Auckland
and Sydney. Summertime southern declinations bring higher pressures and
shallow depressions. An anticyclone forming just before southern declination
will tend to move to the southeast.
Three days before Xmas, on the 22nd, it was the lowest barometric pressure
for the month in Sydney, and the moon was coming up to the furthest point
north which it reached the day before Xmas. A north moon usually brings rain
to Sydney. This time it was accentuated by the full moon on the same day and
the moon closest for the month on the Friday, both of which exaggerated the
system. By the 25th the rain system was departing, moving east. When a low
moves away, because the system is swirling clockwise, the left side of it
is scooping air up from the southern ocean and the S pole and the airflow is
coming up from the south. That's why from the 23rd onwards the winds were
from the south and east. Those southerly winds of course made the city
receive colder minimums. However, Xmas Day was also the day of highest
maximum temperature.
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Holiday weather
The best time for holidays in Sydney may be the first two weeks of January
and then the first two weeks of February. For Melbourne it'll be January's
second and third weeks and also the first two weeks of Feb and also the last
week of March. And Brisbane may be the driest in January throughout the
second and third weeks. Canberra's only likely to get rain in the third
weeks of both January and February. Perth can expect only 3 rain days in
January, but a bit more in Feb.
In NZ, expect January to be a wetter month than average. Most rain should be
in the second and last weeks. The driest spell may be between 18th-26th.
Places wetter than the norm in the N Is. may be parts of lower Northland,
western Bay of Plenty, central Plateau and Taranaki southwards in the west.
The rest of the NI regions may be on average or drier. In the S Is,
districts wetter-than-average are likely to be the west coast, the southern
hydrolakes, inland Otago and Invercargill. The rest should be average to
drier. Most of the country should have less sunshine hours than the January
average. Mostly the South Island may be sunnier than normal. Temperatures
across the North Island may be average to cooler, and the same can be said
for most South Island locations, except perhaps Blenheim, Canterbury and
Alexandra. The North Island may get blustery westerlies about 4th and 11th,
and the South Island strong winds about 3rd, 6th, 11th and 21st.
Warmer periods are possibly January 19th-23rd, February 14th-21st, and March
14th-22nd.
The best time for holidays may be January 18th-26th, Feb 10th-18th(avoid
7th-10th and around 24th), and in the first 2 weeks of March.
Canterbury is about to start a year that may break sunshine records. North
Canterbury to Dunedin should get plenty of January sunshine. In Cant in
February, 4th-17th could be good holiday weather.
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Weather coming
NZ
JANUARY FOR AUCKLAND
JAN 1st fine and warm
JAN 2nd odd afternoon shower, sunny
JAN 3rd mainly fine
JAN 4th showers, partly cloudy
JAN 5th mainly fine, occasional showers
JAN 6th mostly dry
JAN 7th fine and sunny
JAN 8th cloud developing
JAN 9th cloudy, showers
JAN 10th cloudy, breezy
JAN 11th overcast, drizzle
JAN 12th fine mixed with showers
JAN 13th overcast, showers
JAN 14th clearing, cooler
JAN 15th fine and sunny
JAN 16th threatening rain
JAN 17th cooler, mainly fine
JAN 18th fine, warm
JAN 19th fine and pleasant
JAN 20th sunny, warm
JAN 21st fine and sunny
JAN 22nd fine, cloud later
JAN 23rd cloudy, dry
JAN 24th warm and dry
JAN 25th cloudy, dry
JAN 26th sunny, rain dev
JAN 27th cloud, showers
JAN 28th showers and sunny periods
JAN 29th windy, dry
JAN 30th windy, odd afternoon shower
JAN 31st cloudy, calm, dry
FEB 1st partly cloudy, dry
Most likely January rainfall times by region:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st -5th, 9th-13th,15th-17th, 19th-20th, 26th-28th,
31st (heaviest 4th, 11th, 27th, 31st)
Western, Central North Is: 2nd -16th, 20th, 24th-28th, 31st (heaviest 8th,
10th, 15th, 28th)
Taupo: 2nd-4th, 9th-16th, 20th, 26th-28th, 31st (heaviest 9th, 20th)
Gisborne, HB: 2nd-4th, 9th-12th, 16th, 20th, 31st (heaviest 9th, 20th)
Lower North Is: 2nd-4th, 7th-9th, 15th-17th, 19th-20th, 26th-29th (heaviest
15th, 28th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 3rd-4th, 7th-8th, 15th, 20th, 27th-28th (heaviest
15th, 28th)
Canterbury: 3rd-4th, 7th, 11th-12th, 15th-17th, 19th-20th, 27th-28th
(heaviest 3rd, 11th)
Coastal Otago: 2nd-4th, 6th-8th, 13th-16th, 18th-19th, 23rd, 27th-28th
(heaviest 6th, 27th)
Inland Otago: 3rd-7th, 13th-15th, 23rd, 27th-28th (heaviest 6th, 15th, 27th)
Southland: 1st-9th, 12th-16th, 19th-20th, 23rd, 26th-28th (heaviest 5th,
15th, 28th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 1st-9th, 13th-16th, 22nd-28th (heaviest 7th,
15th, 23rd-28th)
January Weather
1st: A trough of low pressure moves onto the country from the Tasman
accompanied by westerlies, and a cool southwesterly airstream follows the
trough from the 3rd.
6th-11th: Southerlies with several cold fronts bring showers to east
followed by an anticyclone. A westerly flow covers New Zealand on the 6th.
Strong Northwesterlies flow over the country on the 8th as a deep depression
passes to the far south of the country. On the 8th south westerlies. Strong
winds through Cook Strait, lighter winds, mostly westerly from the 9th
following the passage of a cold front. By 10th, northwesterlies in the
South Island and possible depression over Southland.
The next four weeks should be cloudier than normal over the north of North
Island and drier over the east of South Island.
12th - 17th: On the 12th a weak trough of low pressure covers the country
while an anticyclone lays in the mid Tasman weakening on the 13th as it
moves onto New Zealand. A disturbed westerly airstream flows over much of
the country from the 14th with strong gale northwesterlies through Cook
Strait on the 16th. The 14th may be anticyclonic. A cooler southwesterly
airstream follows by 17th as a deep depression to the far south of the
country moves east. Warmer northerlies 15th and 16th are replaced by
changeable westerlies until the 22nd.
18th - 23rd: A large anticyclone moves onto the country. On the 20th, a
cold front followed by a southerly airstream moves onto the South Island.
South westerlies predominate from the 22nd as a large anticyclone develops
in the Tasman.
24th - 31st: A trough crosses the South Island, more southerlies with
showers to eastern regions. A series of depressions pass to the south of
the country while a ridge of high pressure lays over the north of the North
Island. Westerlies prevail on the 27th and northwesterlies on the 28th
ahead of a depression laying in mid Tasman. Very high temperatures may
arrive for Northland, Auckland, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. The depression
moves south eastward and crosses the south of the South Island by the 29th.
A brief period of southerly conditions follows as the depression moves away.
A southwesterly change brings an anticyclone to the country in the last two
days of the month.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around
apogee(3rd), new moon (8th), perigee(19th) and full moon (23rd).
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AUSTRALIA
New Year's Eve and NY Day
The northern half of the country has some light scattered shower activity as
a front flows southeasterly across northern WA, the NT and northern QLSD
while the southern half of the country enjoy benefits from a high in the
Bight. Except for some heavy rain in the far N of the country which may
hang around till about the 27th, most of the NT should be mostly fine, also
QSLD, and inland NSW. Also plenty of fine weather in the S of WA, SA,
western VIC and eastern TAS, but Bass Strait coastal regions may get
showers, also in the west of TAS, and coastal parts of NSW and ACT. A warm
airflow passes across the country. The southeast of NSW, VIC and TAS may get
occasional showers from a passing trough including some strong to gale force
winds around the NW of TAS. Temperatures increase. Norfolk Island may be
damp with some heavy rain expected.
Capitals
Darwin: Fine,
Brisbane: Unsettled, mostly fine,
Sydney: Partly cloudy, showers,
Canberra: Unsettled, changeable, possible showers,
Melbourne: Unsettled, showers,
Hobart: Unsettled, showers,
Adelaide: Unsettled, mostly fine, isolated shower possible,
Perth: Mainly fine, unsettled,
Alice Springs: Cloudy, rain,
Cairns: Fine,
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AUSTRALIA SUMMER RAINFALL PREDICTIONS (from Predict Weather Almanac for
Australia 2008)
For NEW SOUTH WALES
Jan: Moderately drier
VICTORIA
Jan: Very dry
QUEENSLAND
Jan: Very dry
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Jan: Moderately drier
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Jan: Slightly drier
TASMANIA
Jan: Slightly wetter
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JANUARY OVERVIEW FOR AUSTRALIA
1ST WEEK:
Action in north and southeast. Unsettled start to the year throughout the
northern half of the country, but mainly fine throughout the central and
southern regions. By midweek however, rain activity clears to the north of
the country, while developing in the southeast as an intense low pressure
system intensifies in the southern Tasman Sea forming scattered wet fronts
across the southeast of the country by midweek. A low pressure system
around midweek may bring a band of thunderstorm activity to the southeastern
districts.
2ND WEEK:
The action is in the south. Heat brings a heavy atmosphere to eastern parts
of the country to start the week easing when a low pressure system forms
over the southeast, causing cold fronts to bring cooler, showery conditions
to the southeast, including the chance of a hail shower around the Sydney
region around the 10th and thunderstorms across the southeast regions of the
country. A wet start to the southwest regions clears to mostly fine by mid
week before a thundery front brings showers and thunderstorms across the
southern districts.
3RD WEEK:
Action in NE. Widespread thunderstorm activity dominates the start of this
week across the country but clearing to mainly fine by mid week before
turning once more to a wet end to the week and higher temperatures in many
regions. A week cyclonic system forms around the Cap York Peninsular
region, causing monsoonal rains to become widespread across the north of the
country with some heavy falls in many districts across the NT although most
rain misses most of QSLD. This system stalls before weakening to a general
low pressure system by the end of this week. Inland NSW may benefit from
wet troughs off the edge of the monsoonal fronts. A low which forms over
the southeast of the country by midweek causes some rain activity to these
regions before a weak high traversing the Bight pushes it off into the
Tasman Sea by the end of the week bringing a showery end to the week in NSW
but fine conditions elsewhere.
4TH WEEK:
Action in SE QLD and NSW. Monsoon rains that dominated the previous week in
the NT moves southeast this week into many districts of the QSLD State. A
static and hot atmosphere ends the month in many districts across the
country particularly along the edge of a cyclonic system that develops off
the NSW coast around the end of the 4th week before clearing by the end of
the month. A weak high pressure system dominates the south and southwest of
the country bringing widespread cloudy skies although mostly dry conditions.
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2008 for Australian States summarised (from Predict Weather Almanac for AUS
2008)
NT: drier than average summer, autumn will be wetter, remainder of year
drier than average by at least 50%, 24% less rainfall for whole year
WA: drier by about 20% overall, every month average or drier except for Oct
which is the only month wetter than average
SA: another average year, with most rain falling July, Aug and Dec, rest of
year average or drier
QLD: similar pattern to NT, drier summer, winter and spring, with autumn and
early winter being wetter times of year. Only 4% difference overall, so only
moderately drier, average rainfall year, most rain falling Mar, Apr and June
VIC: average rainfall year, similar pattern to NSW
TAS: another average year, first half of year wettest months and 2nd half
average to drier months
NSW: year of extreme rainfall fluctuations, overall about 25% less rain than
average, alternating by month as drier/wetter etc, the last 3 months
considerably drier than average. It looks like Jan: drier, Feb wetter, March
drier, Apr wetter, May drier, June wetter, July drier, Aug wetter, Sept
wetter, rest drier.
ACT: average year, wettest months late autumn and through winter, rest of
months average or drier
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2008 for NZ Regions summarised (from Predict Weather Almanac for NZ 2008)
Highlights
Warm and sunnier for the coming summer - temperatures in December, January
and February should be above normal (best places to be will be Canterbury,
Wairarapa, Gisborne and Auckland).
Only one cyclonic event is expected in autumn.
Winter will begin earlier.
Overall quite a wet year, especially in March and August. Northland will
again be vulnerable. Autumn and winter will host significant flood events.
Only one cyclone is expected, in the fourth week of March
Winter will start earlier and finish later. Cold snaps with snow will arrive
in the first week in April and in fourth week in May. The country could see
slightly more rain than average for the year. After a drier-than-average
late summer, autumn, winter and spring may be wettter than normal. December
will then be abnormally drier in the North island only. For the North Island
the wettest month may be March. For the South Island the wettest month may
be May. For the country August should be the wettest month and April the
driest. Average to a degree warmer overall. Slightly sunnier than average in
both islands. Grayest month for all: August
Northland
A drier than average year. But heavy rain warnings that may result in
flooding can be expected at the beginning, middle and end of August
Auckland
A wetter than average year (perhaps by 20%). Most months may see above
average rain. August will be the wettest, April driest
Wellington
A wetter than normal year, the wettest month being March, which may bring
some extreme weather and associated problems.
Christchurch and Dunedin
A drier, sunnier and warmer than average year.
Southern hydrolakes
An average year for rain
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2008 NZ Extreme events Timetable
Jan: widespread rain to both islands in last week
Mar: cyclone 18th-23rd
Apr: sudden wintry cold snap in first week. Heavy rain N Is.19th/20th
May: Flood alert 3rd-11th. Wintry blast 20th for S Is.
June: heavy rain N Is. in first week. Snow event 19th
July: first week; N Is. rain and snow..18th: more snow..30th: much rain
Aug: 14th, much rain in N Is. In last week, heaviest rain of year for N Is.
Sept: heavy rain in far north 12th-17th
Oct: 14th-18th, rain and snow S Is.
Nov: late snow Ruapehu, floods in last week
Dec: heavy rain Auckland and Canterbury midmonth. More rains fill rivers on
28th.
2008 Cyclones
One about 19th March, bringing bad weather about 18th-23rd to all parts of
the NI and may also affect the top of the S Is.
2008 Cold
A cooler winter, with plenty of snow this year. In the S Is, a snow event
each month will please skifield operators, but perhaps not road crews.
April: A sudden cold snap in the first week brings first snow of the season
at Ruapehu which may also reach the Ruahines
May: On 22nd a wintry blast will signal the start of a winter a week earlier
than last year.
June 19th: a big snowfall for all ski-fields
July 3rd: cold snap bringing snow,
July 18th: snow - this may be one of the country's biggest snow events of
the year.
July 30th: another snow and rain event.
Aug last week: Canterbury rain, sleet, snow and blizzard
2008 Heavy rain
March 18th-23rd, bad weather to all parts of the NI .
April 19th may bring wind and heavy rain to the NI and top of the SI.
May 3rd-11th, a flood alert may be issued due to the abnormally higher tides
fed by rain
June: first week, heavy rain and galeforce winds in the NI from Coromandel
to Wellington.
July 3rd: Most NI places get rain, some snow, and some falls may be heavy
enough to flood flatland.
Aug 14th-17th: much rain in NI, the SI west coast, the top of the SI and the
southern hydrolakes
Aug 26th: heaviest rains of the year for the NI.
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Cyclones
Only one cyclonic event is expected in the summer/autumn cyclone season.
This should visit about 19th March, bringing bad weather about 18th-23rd to
all parts of the NI. The next may be November 13th-15th, 2008, December
13th, 2008, and January 9th-11th 2009. As a result, on each of these dates,
tropical cyclones could develop but well to the north. And whether they come
down here is something we can't predict because these systems are closer to
us than the moon, so they tend to get into the driving seat for a while and
take over. Prediction goes a bit awry till they have passed.
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La Nina?
There's two names that people keep hearing about, El Nino and La Nina. What
do they mean?
The process is that along the way meteorologists like to look forward and
guess it'll be dry or wet. But they don't SAY dry or wet, they say El Nino
or La Nina, just like a doctor won't tell you you have a sore throat, you've
already told HIM that, so he'll call it tonsilitis, which is Latin for sore
throat. You tell him what you've got, and he'll give you a Latin
translation. Or you'll say Doc, I've got a bad back and he'll say
hmm..probably lumbago, which of course is Latin for bad back. The La Nina
pattern is to guess it may be a wet time, then wait for the end of the year,
look back and see if it actually was wet like you said, and if so, call it
La Nina. The NZ metservice appear to wait to see what other weather
organisations like the NOAA(USA) and BoM(Australia) will say, and then
repeat it. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology only call off on it when the
year is over. If they say it will be dry therefore El Nino and it turned out
to be wet, then they say it was an El Nino but it was a fizzer. That's why
you can get wet and dry El Ninos, and wet and dry La Ninas.
During the La Nina pattern an oscillation that happens that can be
correlated with the way the moon changes hemispheres. It's called the
Southern Oscillation Index, and it is about a 4.5 year turnabout of ocean
currents. In the Northern hemisphere they have a corresponding system called
the Northern Oscillation Index. In both, the air is in contact with the sea
so the winds change direction at the same time as the currents. The El Nino
and La Nina are these alternating wind and temperature movements. El Nino
years were 1974(drought in South Island), 1978(drought Hawkes Bay),
1982(drought in Waimea), 1987(drought in Canterbury), 1992(drought in
Canterbury), 1997(drought in Canterbury), 2001(drought in Marlborough) and
the in-between years were the La Ninas. During El Nino or the dry part,
warmer winds from Indonesia which is near the equator blow from the west,
and rain hits West Australia but peters out by the time it gets across
country to the east side. So the east is relatively dry. During La Nina the
wind comes from the east, cooler because it comes from Brazil that is cooled
by the southern ocean. The rain blows from the sea onto NSW and because the
cooler air condenses the clouds it brings a wetter time. And we've been
seeing that lately, wet all up and down the east coast but dry and hot in
Perth. This is because in Perth an east wind brings dry weather, having
dropped its moisture-laden load at the other side of the country. That is
why a La Nina for WA is usually expected to be a dry time.
In a NZ La Nina summer we are open to weather systems from the north and
northwest. These may be wet for parts of Northland and upper North Island
but dry for the South Island. According to NZ Metservice, moderate La Nina
conditions are now present across the tropical Pacific. The cool zone
responsible has been near Peru since March and from July onwards it has been
expanding westwards. It now stretches to well to west of the dateline and
perhaps is now reaching its peak extent as a few hot spots are starting to
appear near the Peru Coast. Sub-surface sea temperatures have also been
cooler than normal, and recent measurements show that yet cooler waters are
still rising to the surface. Computer models predict this La Nina episode
will last until March 2008. The probability of such an occurrence is judged
to be over 60%. Surrounding the cool pool is a horseshoe-shaped zone of
warmer-than-normal sea water. This is more marked in the Northern Hemisphere
than the Southern, but a zone of warmer-than-normal seas is noticeable from
the Solomons to south of Tonga, and is strongest around Fiji. There is also
a zone of warmer-than-normal sea water that is extending outwards from New
South Wales into the central Tasman Sea, and a zone of cooler-than-normal
sea standing firm south of the Chatham rise and over our south eastern
flank. These are likely to be oceanic reflections of the atmospheric
anticyclones that have lingered recently in the Tasman Sea. This may
encourage clouds to form in the Tasman Sea but discourage them over southern
New Zealand.
I am excited because I believe the cycle is now cracked. The last El Ninos
were 2001 and 1997, the years of minimum and midpoint lunar declinations,
which always give rise to El Nino years. It is then reasonable to say the
last La Nina was halfway between, in 1999. Such is the cycle. Anyone can
find out about this and plot it for themselves. Information on which were
lunar declination years is available on
http://mysite.verizon.net/bonniehill/pages.aux/lunar/lunar.decl.1900.html
All the years in that table, e.g. 1885, 1889, 1894, 1899 etc were and will
be El Nino and were drought years, and the years of drought already
mentioned, being 1974, 1978, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997 and 2001 ALL LIE IN THIS
TABLE. Surely not a gigantic coincidence?? The in-between-years were La
Nina. All year I have been saying 2007 would be a wetter year than 2006 for
Australia and many districts would be coming out of drought. This has turned
out to be true. Looking at the table you can see how this reasoning came
about, because 2006 was the maximum declination year and arguably the peak
of the drought.
Note that the next El Nino may be in 2011. Expect a big drought in
Canterbury to become established from February to June of that year, to be
repeated in 2012. This could be multimillion dollar information! Fortunes
may be retained by those who prepare, and sadly, farms, fortunes and
livelihoods may be lost by those who do not.
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Letters
Hello Ken
Have been looking at the website hoping for some rain for the Pilbara. I see
that you predict the Pilbara to be wetter than average but as it is a big
area am wondering how you define the area. For example the De Grey seems to
be a separate area. Very impressed with your prediction for rain last year
at Indee station on the 8th March. It came to pass on the dot with cyclone
George.
Regards
Robyn R
Robyn
In my almanac for the Pilbara region I monitor Newman, Mt Magnet,
Meekatharra and Carnavon. I consider them representative. I expect good rain
in Mt Magnet over January, perhaps 100mm. Newman may get 35mm.
I use Pt Hedland and Damper for De Grey. Rainfall for there should be less
than January's average.
In February it is likely that Meekatharra and Carnavon get the most rain.
Cheers
Ken
Thanks for the prompt response, unfortunately not what I wanted to hear!!
We are situated about 200km south of Karratha and I wouldnt call us in the
De Grey at all. In fact much of the Pilbara is not covered in your
predictions going by your reference towns. The real Pilbara would include
Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, Mardie, Exmouth, Paraburdoo, Newman and
Marble Bar. De Grey is included in that with Port Hedland and Marble Bar.
The other towns you mention ie, Meekatharra, Mt Magnet and Carnarvon are in
the Murchison and Gascoyne areas. So when we read the predictions there is
no relevance to us as those latter towns are a long way from here. The only
connection with summer rains is that a tropical depression or cyclone could
come through from up here on the West Pilbara coast and track down through
the Gascoyne/ Murchison..
Robyn
I have systems like that about Jan 14, 31 and first week of Feb.
cheers
Ken
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----------------------
Hi
Interesting Sat pic of the Australian region today with two lows of a
different kind in the tropics/sub tropics both interacting with the
ITCZ...TC Melanie northwest of Port Headland with its warm core and cold
pool mid latitude low east of Brisbane both near similar latitudes the
signatures of both lows are interestingly different....regards Clyve H
Hi Clyve
Not so different, in my view.
Both started to form around the last full moon, as most summer cyclones do.
Both should dissipate around new years day.
Regards
Ken Ring
They are very different in their evolution....The TC northwest of Australia
is a warm core with an over topped high pressure at 300hpa....The Coral Sea
low is a cold pool over topped at 300hpa by a 'low pressure'....The
structures of both lows are a contrast that was the point of the email...As
far as I know the gravitational pull of the moon is the same wether its full
or new. Although I do acknowledge variations in the Moons orbit and the
occasional line up of the Moon and the Sun and so on...Summer cyclones react
to the action of the Sun/ and the tilt of the earth allowing the band of
Ocean in our summer to warm off the tropical coastal areas of
Australia....Clyve H
Hi Clyve
..The sun is in there, yes, but the tilt of the earth is the same every
summer and is what makes it summer. The sun is always in the same position.
Cyclones get formed at specific times - when the moon is in position.
Simply when full moons are close to earth(same as when new moons are
furthest away)as on Xmas eve, the airtide is low enough in daytime hours for
the sun to exert more heat(without having to get through as much air to
reach ground or surface of ocean). The result is more heating on ocean
surface within 5deg of the equator(where all cyclones are born) and more
evaporation.
More on my Today Show interview, -
http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-au&brand=ninemsn&tab=m2397&from=39&vid=451F682B
-C5DB-40C2-A8B0-C49B5B8120A3&playlist=videoByTag:mk:en-AU:vs:0:tag:AUnews_AU
today:ns:MSNVideo_Top_Cat:ps:10:sd:-1:ind:1:ff:8A
or you can get it via this link http://today.ninemsn.com.au/videoindex.aspx
cheers
Ken Ring
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Mr Ken Ring
1.I was a global warming sceptic until I heard people like you stooping to
silly arguments that the world is cooling since 1998( a child can see the
trend is upwards), or that
2. its all the urban heat island effect( the IPPC go to great lengths to
compensate for this as you would expect), or that
3. the upper atmosphere isnt warming (it is), or that
4. the glaciers arent melting (they are far more than usual). Arguments as
silly and false as these convinced me there is a problem, so thanks Ken you
have converted me to believe in the IPPC case.
5. You are doing a better job than Al Gore. And jealousy of him will get you
knowwhere. Play the argument not the man.
6. Also are you going to let your readers know auckland university studied
your weather prediction books and found them no more accurate than tossing a
coin, and that
7. your weathermaps are strikingly similar to old tvnz archive maps?
8. Your website may well be the silliest on the planet. If you believe the
moon drives climate, prove it with science not rhetoric and waffle.
9. Show me an independant university poll of how many climate scientists
support gore and how many dont and if most dont you will make a convert of
me. But I doubt if you can.
10. My position on climate change is Im enough convinced of an issue to take
moderate steps while we see what happens over the next 10-20
years.temperature wise. Less reliance on oil seems a good thing anyway,
given my petrol bills.
11. Check realclimate.org for simplified accounts of the papers done on
this, which have been accepted by the IPPC.
12. I gave you the benefit of the doubt. I was wrong You appear to be a
charlatan.
13. If you really believe your theories get them reviewed properly as all
other scientists have to.
Nigel J
Replies
1. The IPCC figure has been revised. 1934 was the warmest year. I can supply
proof that NZ is cooling using Metservice figures
2. Have you actually seen the very warm sensor site where temperatures for
Auckland are gathered?? Doesn't sound like.
3. Oh..proof?
4. Not what NIWA say - see their website
5. Jealous of an uniformed overweight failed politician, who receives scorn
and derision from real world scientists, and praise only from gullible cult
devotees who dabble in pseudosciences? Real science allows debate,
scepticism and review. Real science never talks about consensus. Climate
science a la Gore is religious fanaticism.
6. Can you point me to that study? Why would anyone bother? Sounds like you
are making it up.
7. Good reason for that..they ARE old TVNZ maps. My work is very
transparent.
8. I have done. Anyone can verify my work. Just clock ocean tides and apply
the same cycles to the weather. Not rocket science.
9. Well, here you go.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071221/NATION/84
4993096/1001
for some the scientists opposed to the IPCC findings
10. "Climate" refers to latitude. Latitude doesn't change within a century,
and polar shift has nothing to do with temperature. Less reliance on oil?
Why? It's not running out. Oil barons create the idea of scarcity to keep
prices high. It's the capitalist system. They keep discovering new oil
fields every day. Taking it out of the ground is just like taking
underground water out. No harm done and it eventually recycles.
11. The IPCC is a body set up ONLY to find anthropogenic climate change.
That is its brief, not scientific proof. Read the comments of ex-reviewers.
The IPCC are not scientists. They are 53 politicians, who sit around a table
and alter the scientists' findings to fit the political agendas of their
governments
To my mind there is no proof of global warming. If there was, all my work
would be increasingly incrementally out, because I am recycling weather data
nearly 60 years old locally and nearly 200 years old internationally. You
seem unaware that temperature for any one spot changes every second. I have
instrumentation, top of the art, that proves it. It is impossible to ever
declare a figure for a city, let alone the globe. It is impossible in real
science to empirically distinguish human activity from any other
bio-activity in nature. If you want to know what drives Al Gore, google
General Investment Fund. Gore sells carbon credits to governments. That's
his job and his income.
My peers are not academics. I have no wish to debate with people who do not
experience weather first hand and cycles first hand. My peers are farmers.
If you want peer review, go ask any farmer in this country about the moon
and the possibility of cycles of weather. Don't ask someone who lives in the
city and who has a desk job. They simply don't know.
As for oil, yes, there does appear to be infinite supply, if infinite means
unknowable limits, seemingly endless. There is no evidence otherwise, only
expressed opinions by those with ulterior motives re price controls.
May I suggest you don't disregard what doesn't suit, like NZ glaciers
advancing, Antarctica and Greenland thickening for the past 20 years, the
Pacific dropping over the past 26 years, and the ozone hole size monitored
by volcanic activity from Mt Erebus.
13. There are no scientists in my field, no chair of astrological physics at
any NZ university.
end
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New website
Our reconstructed website has been in development all year and was due to go
live before Xmas, but teething problems have arisen preventing this. Readers
will find all sorts of fascinating features, including the facility to find
weather up to 2010 for most towns in both countries. Meanwhile we are still
offering the longrange service, by email negotiation on
enqui-@predictweather.com Tell us what place and date you are requiring
a report for.
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New almanacs
The Predict Weather Almanac for New Zealand 2008 has been on sale from
September 19th. This year new features include a fishing bite times diary as
well as the ski and surf diaries, also a temperature trend readout for the
year for main cities. The book is published by Random House NZ and is
available in bookstores throughout the country. Cost: $44
The Predict Weather Almanac for Australia 2008 has also been released, as a
limited edition. It runs to 521 pages and covers 152 towns and regions. This
year's book also has new features including ski and fishing diaries, also
timetables of nationwide fogs, frosts, floods, snow, storms, hailstorms,
thunderstorms and gales. Because this year we were obliged to self-publish,
the book is not in the retail distributing system, not available in
Australian bookshops, and must be ordered from our Auckland office. It is
not the ideal situation and we apologise, but our publisher pulled out, no
reasons given, even though the total 2007 print run had apparently been
sold. Orders need to be prepaid. Personal cheque is fine. No money orders
please, also no internet deposit - the banks impose an extra $30 for
currency exchange. Cost: $44AUS + 12AUS postage from NZ to Australia, =
$56AUS
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Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. Allow an
error of up to 2 days for all forecasts. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested
parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of
commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights
Reserved (c) Ken Ring Ltd 2007
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