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WEATHER EZINE January 25, 2008
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Weatherman
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Jan 25, 2008 03:35 PST
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Weather By The Moon
The Truth about Weather and Climate
WEATHER EZINE January 25, 2008
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Current Moon
27th: crossing equator heading south
30th: last quarter
31st: apogee
3rd: southern declination
7th: new moon
MOON IN FEBRUARY
3rd: Southern Declination
7th: New Moon
10th: Crossing Equator
14th: First Quarter
14th: Perigee #13
16th: Northern Declination
21st: Full Moon
23rd: Crossing Equator
28th: Apogee
29th: Last Quarter
Moon notes
At the moment we have a last quarter moon heading south. This has dragged
down another cyclonic system from the Pacific, having formed at the time
of full moon about 23 January. The further from full moon it gets, the
less force it contains. The system is well to the east but should still
affect NZ. Consequently there should some rain coming on the weekend.
Tomorrow should be a nice day in the north, but the big low pressure system
in the east may bring rain to Auckland around about Sunday and into Monday,
or maybe just go cloudy and threaten to rain, but you may want to have a
brolly nearby just in case. I think we'll hear a bit of far off thunder
rolling at times. So once it gets past Auckland the low may hit from about E
BOP down to Gisborne, and the lower part of the E NI eventually. Last
quarter moon is a night moon, not rising until midnight. With the moon out
of the daytime sky and the air height lower, the sun causes extra warm
afternoons.
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NZ weather update
We had the perigee last Saturday (19th) which brought wind, and the N dec on
the Sunday (20th) which brings rain, and it added up to the weather warnings
that were issued. But it was mostly blow and rough weather out at sea.
Auckland has NOT had a lot of rain over January so far, only 15mm altogether
for the month, whereas Whangarei has had 126mm, 40mm of which was in one
day. Jan was always going to be a slightly cloudier month, but Feb-Oct
should be sunnier than normal.
After possible rain Sunday/Monday, more unsettled weather could come back
next Wednesday or Thursday which is the end of January. So on both Sunday
and next Thursday, watch the wind direction. To do that just turn your body
until you feel it blowing on your back, or just grab some leaves and throw
them in the air and see which way they are blown. After 2 or 3 days of the
wind blowing from the E, some rain may arrive, and when the wind switches to
be coming from the W or SW it should start to clear up. NEs used to be
called winds of Tamatea in ancient times, and after 2 or 3 days of blowing
from the E no one put to sea for fishing, because the seas were considered
wild.
The surf should be good, on the W coast today and up to Sunday, and the
swell should keep coming from the SW during next week which makes for good
surfing on the W coast. After Monday the E and SE winds may have switch to S
and SWly, and still be coming from the S during next week, so temperatures
should lower down a bit as the weekend progresses. The moon is back in the S
hemisphere again around the end of next week.
After next Thursday, fine weather is expected for the first week of
February, followed by a few rain days between 7th-10th, and then until 18th
or 19th mostly fine and sunny for the country.
The fishing is good again about next Tuesday and Wednesday, around the last
Q moon on the 30th. Get your line in before breakfast and after dinner.
Warmer periods coming up are possibly February 14th-21st and March
14th-22nd.
The next best time for holidays is Feb 10th-18th(avoid 7th-10th and around
24th), and in the first 2 weeks of March.
Canterbury is about to start a year that may break sunshine records. North
Canterbury to Dunedin should get plenty of January sunshine. In Cant in
February, 4th-17th could be good holiday weather.
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Weather coming
NZ
JANUARY FOR AUCKLAND
JAN 26th sunny, rain dev
JAN 27th cloud, showers
JAN 28th showers and sunny periods
JAN 29th windy, dry
JAN 30th windy, odd afternoon shower
JAN 31st cloudy, calm, dry
FEB 1st partly cloudy, dry
FEB 2nd dry, cloudy
FEB 3rd cloudy, dry, mild
FEB 4th partly cloudy, warm, dry
FEB 5th fine, sunny
FEB 6th dry, warm
FEB 7th partly cloudy, dry
FEB 8th cloudy, night rain dev
FEB 9th overcast, humid, night driz
FEB 10th overcast, rain
FEB 11th fine, warm
FEB 12th fine, warm
FEB 13th cloud at times, dry
FEB 14th dry
FEB 15th fine, warm
FEB 16th fine, sunny, warm
FEB 17th clear most of day
FEB 18th cloud then clearing
FEB 19th fairly sunny
FEB 20th dry, brief evening shower
FEB 21st cldy afternoon, mostly dry
FEB 22nd dry, chance of odd shower
FEB 23rd mostly dry, sonme cloud
FEB 24th overcast, morning rain
FEB 25th dry, chance of showers later
FEB 26th cloudy but dry
FEB 27th overcast, dry
FEB 28th cloud in afternoon
FEB 29th partly cloudy, dry
Most likely February rainfall times by region:
Northland to Hamilton: 3rd/4th (in BoP), 8th -12th, 23rd-24th (heaviest
10th, 24th)
Western, Central North Is: 8th-9th, 17th-20th, 26th-29th (heaviest 9th,
26th)
Taupo: 8th-10th, 19th-27th (heaviest 9th, 20th)
Gisborne, HB: 3rd-4th, 8th-10th, 19th-24th (heaviest 10th, 19th)
Lower North Is: 8th-10th, 18th-19th (heaviest 9th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 8th-9th, 18th-19th, 23rd (heaviest 18th)
Canterbury: 2nd-3rd, 18th-19th, 21st-23rd, 28th (heaviest 18th)
Coastal Otago: 2nd-3rd, 9th, 16th-18th, 21st-22nd, 25th, 28th-29th
(heaviest 18th, 25th)
Inland Otago: 2nd, 9th, 16th-18th, 22nd, 25th, 28th-29th (heaviest 18th,
25th)
Southland: 2nd-3rd, 8th-9th, 16th-18th, 25th-29th (heaviest 16th, 28th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 1st-2nd, 8th-9th, 16th-18th, 24th-29th(south of
Hokitika) (heaviest 8th, 18th, 29th)
FEBRUARY WEATHER IN NZ
1st – 8th: In the first four days an anticyclone covers the country. On the
1st a small depression lays to the northeast of Northland and a
northwesterly airstream flows over the south of the South Island. After the
depression to the north has moved southeast and a cold front has passed over
the South Island, light southerlies should prevail from the 2nd. Westerlies
should prevail from the 3rd to the 7th. On the 4th, a ridge of high
pressure extends onto the South Island from the anticyclone which moves onto
New Zealand by the 5th. By the 8th south to southwesterly winds accompany
cold fronts.
9th – 11th: Very warm in Christchurch between 8th and 10th. Strong
northwesterlies flow over the South Island ahead of a frontal system. These
may be followed by a brief period of south westerlies on the 10th. On the
11th, a cell of high pressure lays over the South Island while moist
easterlies affect northern regions of the North Island. The 11th and 12th
should be anticyclonic with occasional northerlies.
The next four weeks maybe very warm and dry for most of New Zealand. Rain
should be less than average over much of the North Island and the top of the
South Island. Days of soil moisture deficit which measure agricultural
drought may be well above average in Northland, Auckland, Nelson,
Marlborough and North Otago.
12th – 18th: A large anticyclone covers New Zealand from the 12th through
to the 16th. The ridge extending to the South Island may contain
southerlies. This system weakens on the 17th as a frontal band associated
with a depression in the Tasman moves onto the country. A westerly
airstream flows over the South Island ahead of the depression on the 18th.
By the 18th unseasonally warm temperatures may come to Havlock North.
Northerly change.
19th – 29th: A southerly airstream follows the passage of a cold front over
the South Island on the 19th. By 20th, southerlies may affect eastern
regions of the South Island. A ridge of high pressure may extend onto the
south of the country from an anticyclone in the south Tasman Sea while a
small cell of high pressure lays just east of the South Island. The 21st
and 22nd may be changeable with northwesterlies then cooler west to south
westerlies. From the 23rd to March 4th, winds should be mostly westerly
with brief southerly changes. This belt of high pressure which extends onto
the country from the anticyclone may predominate through to the 29th.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around new moon
(7th), perigee(14th) and full moon (21st) and apogee(28th),.
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AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA FEBRUARY RAINFALL PREDICTIONS (from Predict Weather Almanac for
Australia 2008)
For NEW SOUTH WALES
125% more than average rainfall.
Murray- Darlings – Drier by 95%
West – Drier by 86%
Central Tablelands – Wetter by 211%
Sydney Region – Wetter by 321%
Far SE / Snowy Mountains – Wetter by 22%
NE Coast / Richmond Ranges – Wetter by 85%
VICTORIA
75% more than average rainfall.
Gippslands – Wetter by 15%
South Riverina – Wetter by 24%
Melbourne Region – Wetter by 41%
Apollo Bay – Wetter by 290%
West – Drier by 14%
QUEENSLAND
72% less than average rainfall.
Carpentaria – Drier by 77%
NE Artesian Basin – Drier by 86%
SW Artesian Basin – Drier by 64%
North and Central Coasts – Drier by 85%
Darling Downs – Drier by 29%
Moreton – Drier by 64%
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
10% less than average rainfall.
Kimberleys – Drier by 31%
De Grey – Drier by 54%
Pilbara – Wetter by 3%
South West Coast – Wetter by 504%
South Coast – Wetter by 118%
South East – Drier by 52%
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
34% less than average rainfall.
South East – Drier by 10%
Adelaide Plains – Drier by 68%
Spencer Gulf – Drier by 25%
North and North West – Drier by 82%
Western Plains – Drier by 36%
TASMANIA
48% more than average rainfall
North Coast – Wetter by 101%
North East – Wetter by 71%
Central – Wetter by 25%
South East – Wetter by 8%
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FEBRUARY AUSTRALIAN CAPITALS, 1st half of month
1st
Darwin: Cloudy, rain, humid
Brisbane: Mostly fine, pleasant, evening shower possible
Sydney: Fine, mostly sunny, light evening showers likely
Canberra: Mostly sunny, serene
Melbourne: Fine, mostly sunny, pleasant, fresh
Hobart: Fine, long sunny periods, fresh atmosphere
Adelaide: Fine, long sunny periods, pleasant
Perth: Mostly sunny, fine, serene
2nd
Darwin: Showers clearing, fine spells, humid
Brisbane: Mainly fine, warmer, sunny
Sydney: Fine, mostly sunny, moderate
Canberra: Fine, dry, clear, light to calm winds
Melbourne: Mainly fine, partly cloudy, possible evening shower
Hobart: Mainly fine, mostly sunny, light breezes
Adelaide: Mainly fine, sunny, occasional clouds developing
Perth: Fine, sunny, humid
3rd
Darwin: Mostly fine, isolated showers
Brisbane: Unsettled, partly cloudy, showers threatening
Sydney: Partly cloudy, mainly fine, calm to lazy winds
Canberra: Partly cloudy, isolated shower possible
Melbourne: Mainly fine, mostly sunny, moderate breezes
Hobart: Cloudy, passing showers
Adelaide: Cloudy, moderate breezes, possible drizzle patches
Perth: Cloudy, low pressure, isolated showers
4th
Darwin: Cloudy, rain
Brisbane: Mostly fine, overnight showers clearing
Sydney: Cloudy, mainly fine, evening drizzle possible
Canberra: Cloudy, unsettled, possible passing drizzle patch
Melbourne: Partly cloudy, unsettled, mainly fine
Hobart: Unsettled, mainly fine, partly cloudy
Adelaide: Partly cloudy, mainly fine, serene
Perth: Partly cloudy, mainly fine, moderately cooler
5th
Darwin: Clearing, local showers, thunderstorm possible
Brisbane: Cloudy, heat, drizzle patches to light showers
Sydney: Fine, mostly sunny, dry
Canberra: Mainly fine, mostly sunny, moderate breezes
Melbourne: Fine, mostly sunny, moderate breezes
Hobart: Mainly fine, mostly sunny
Adelaide: Fine, sunny, possible light overnight shower
Perth: Partly cloudy, humid, brief overnight shower possible
6th
Darwin: Mostly fine and sunny, gentle breezes
Brisbane: Partly cloudy, mild showers clearing, mostly fine
Sydney: Sunny, cool breezes, electrical atmosphere
CaMelbourne: Mainly fine, mostly sunny, pleasant breezes
Hobart: Fine, sunny, gentle breezes
Adelaide: Fine, sunny, gentle breezes
Perth: Partly cloudy, gentle breezes, heavy rain likely
7th
Darwin: Mainly fine, sunny, evening thunderstorm possible
Brisbane: Mainly fine, mostly sunny, gentle breezes
Sydney: Fine, sunny, gentle breezes
Canberra: Breezy, fine, fair, partly cloudy
Melbourne: Unsettled, fair, breezy, cloudy
Hobart: Partly cloudy, occasional wind gust, mainly fine
Adelaide: Mainly fine, windy
Perth: Cloudy, humid, thunderstorm likely
8th
Darwin: Low pressure, mostly fine, cloud developing
Brisbane: Partly cloudy, fine, low pressure, breezy
Sydney: Low pressure, cloudy, thunderstorm possible, heat
Canberra: Fine, mostly sunny, moderate winds
Melbourne: Partly cloudy, generally fair, fine
Hobart: Mainly fine, mostly sunny, isolated overnight shower
Adelaide: Partly cloudy, overnight showers
Perth: Mainly fine, mostly sunny, strong breezes
9th
Darwin: Cloudy, isolated showers turning to rain
Brisbane: Low pressure, cloudy, isolated showers
Sydney: Cloudy, passing showers possible
Canberra: Partly cloudy, mostly fine, overnight drizzle likely
Melbourne: Partly cloudy, mainly fine
Hobart: Partly cloudy, brief showers
Adelaide: Cloudy, showers, low pressure
Perth: Low pressure, rain
10th
Darwin: Cloudy, rain easing to showers
Brisbane: Low pressure, cloudy, showers
Sydney: Low pressure, cloudy, hot, brief shower possible
Canberra: Partly cloudy, occasionally threatening rain
Melbourne: Mainly fine, moderate, misty drizzles possible
Hobart: Partly cloudy, occasional showers
Adelaide: Low pressure, passing shower possible
Perth: Cloudy, low pressure, isolated showers
11th
Darwin: Cloudy, showers, thunderstorm possible, squalls
Brisbane: Cloudy, windy, brief showers
Sydney: Partly cloudy, isolated showers
Canberra: Fine, pleasant, serene, partly cloudy
Melbourne: Fine, serene, fair, overnight showers likely
Hobart: Fine, sunny, humid
Adelaide: Fine, sunny,
Perth: Mainly fine, cloudy, brief shower possible
12th
Darwin: Partly cloudy, occasional showers, long fine spells
Brisbane: Cloudy, showers, thunderstorm possible
Sydney: Partly cloudy, overnight showers, clearing
Canberra: Unsettled, cloudy, thunderstorm possible
Melbourne: Mainly fine, humid, gentle overnight shower
Hobart: Partly cloudy, showers
Adelaide: Partly cloudy, fine, dry
Perth: Unsettled, thunderstorm, showers
13th
Darwin: Partly cloudy, overnight rain developing
Brisbane: Partly cloudy, showers, moderate
Sydney: Partly cloudy, showers turning to rain
Canberra: Partly cloudy, changeable, mostly fine
Melbourne: Fine day, evening showers possible
Hobart: Partly cloudy, mostly fine, overnight showers
Adelaide: Unsettled, scattered showers
Perth: Partly cloudy, mostly fine, brief shower possible
14th
Darwin: Overcast, heavy rain
Brisbane: Overcast, windy, rain
Sydney: Overcast, rain
Canberra: Cloudy, threatening rain, occasional showers
Melbourne: Overcast, threatening rain, isolated showers
Hobart: Cloudy, threatening rain, mostly dry
Adelaide: Overcast, threatening rain, windy, showers
Perth: Partly cloudy, mainly fine, fair
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2008 for Australian States summarised (from Predict Weather Almanac for AUS
2008) still current
NT: drier than average summer, autumn will be wetter, remainder of year
drier than average by at least 50%, 24% less rainfall for whole year
WA: drier by about 20% overall, every month average or drier except for Oct
which is the only month wetter than average
SA: another average year, with most rain falling July, Aug and Dec, rest of
year average or drier
QLD: similar pattern to NT, drier summer, winter and spring, with autumn and
early winter being wetter times of year. Only 4% difference overall, so only
moderately drier, average rainfall year, most rain falling Mar, Apr and June
VIC: average rainfall year, similar pattern to NSW
TAS: another average year, first half of year wettest months and 2nd half
average to drier months
NSW: year of extreme rainfall fluctuations, overall about 25% less rain than
average, alternating by month as drier/wetter etc, the last 3 months
considerably drier than average. It looks like Jan: drier, Feb wetter, March
drier, Apr wetter, May drier, June wetter, July drier, Aug wetter, Sept
wetter, rest drier.
ACT: average year, wettest months late autumn and through winter, rest of
months average or drier
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2008 for NZ Regions summarised (from Predict Weather Almanac for NZ 2008)
Still current
Highlights
Warm and sunnier for the coming summer - temperatures in December, January
and February should be above normal (best places to be will be Canterbury,
Wairarapa, Gisborne and Auckland).
Only one cyclonic event is expected in autumn.
Winter will begin earlier.
Overall quite a wet year, especially in March and August. Northland will
again be vulnerable. Autumn and winter will host significant flood events.
Only one cyclone is expected, in the fourth week of March
Winter will start earlier and finish later. Cold snaps with snow will arrive
in the first week in April and in fourth week in May. The country could see
slightly more rain than average for the year. After a drier-than-average
late summer, autumn, winter and spring may be wettter than normal. December
will then be abnormally drier in the North island only. For the North Island
the wettest month may be March. For the South Island the wettest month may
be May. For the country August should be the wettest month and April the
driest. Average to a degree warmer overall. Slightly sunnier than average in
both islands. Grayest month for all: August
Northland
A drier than average year. But heavy rain warnings that may result in
flooding can be expected at the beginning, middle and end of August
Auckland
A wetter than average year (perhaps by 20%). Most months may see above
average rain. August will be the wettest, April driest
Wellington
A wetter than normal year, the wettest month being March, which may bring
some extreme weather and associated problems.
Christchurch and Dunedin
A drier, sunnier and warmer than average year.
Southern hydrolakes
An average year for rain
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2008 NZ Extreme events Timetable
Jan: widespread rain to both islands in last ten days
Mar: cyclone 18th-23rd
Apr: sudden wintry cold snap in first week. Heavy rain N Is.19th/20th
May: Flood alert 3rd-11th. Wintry blast 20th for S Is.
June: heavy rain N Is. in first week. Snow event 19th
July: first week; N Is. rain and snow..18th: more snow..30th: much rain
Aug: 14th, much rain in N Is. In last week, heaviest rain of year for N Is.
Sept: heavy rain in far north 12th-17th
Oct: 14th-18th, rain and snow S Is.
Nov: late snow Ruapehu, floods in last week
Dec: heavy rain Auckland and Canterbury midmonth. More rains fill rivers on
28th.
2008 Cold
A cooler winter, with plenty of snow this year. In the S Is, a snow event
each month will please skifield operators, but perhaps not road crews.
April: A sudden cold snap in the first week brings first snow of the season
at Ruapehu which may also reach the Ruahines
May: On 22nd a wintry blast will signal the start of a winter a week earlier
than last year.
June 19th: a big snowfall for all ski-fields
July 3rd: cold snap bringing snow,
July 18th: snow - this may be one of the country's biggest snow events of
the year.
July 30th: another snow and rain event.
Aug last week: Canterbury rain, sleet, snow and blizzard
2008 Heavy rain
March 18th-23rd, bad weather to all parts of the NI .
April 19th may bring wind and heavy rain to the NI and top of the SI.
May 3rd-11th, a flood alert may be issued due to the abnormally higher tides
fed by rain
June: first week, heavy rain and galeforce winds in the NI from Coromandel
to Wellington.
July 3rd: Most NI places get rain, some snow, and some falls may be heavy
enough to flood flatland.
Aug 14th-17th: much rain in NI, the SI west coast, the top of the SI and the
southern hydrolakes
Aug 26th: heaviest rains of the year for the NI.
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Cyclones
One should visit about 19th March, bringing bad weather about 18th-23rd to
all parts of the NI. The next may be November 13th-15th, 2008, December
13th, 2008, and January 9th-11th 2009. As a result, on each of these dates,
tropical cyclones could develop but well to the north. And whether they come
down here is something we can't predict because these systems are closer to
us than the moon, so they tend to get into the driving seat for a while and
take over. Prediction goes a bit awry till they have passed.
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Drought for parts of NZ?
A drought occurs in the same place roughly every 9 years. This is a multiple
of the 36-38 year moon/sun cycle phenomenon that sees the solar system
planets average their gravitational centre of gravity, called the solar
system barycentre, and which governs weather patterns on earth. At the
moment we are following a 1972 pattern, not exactly, day by day, but in
terms of trends. 1972/3 was called a big El Nino year in hindsight, such
were the dry conditions. There was a severe drought in Canterbury. The big
"El Niño" years of 1972/73 now stand out in the history archives. From 1972
add 9 and get to 1981/2. 1982/3 was a drought year. So was 1991/2 which is 9
years later. 2001/2, brought another drought, another 9 years later. 9 years
on is where we are now, in 2008.
The 9-yr situation in Australia is the same, and we are close enough
countries under the moon. Droughts were during 1963-68 then 1972-73, showing
the 9 yr gap between 1963-1972. The next drought was 1982-83. It is 9 yrs
between 1973-1982. Then came the drought of 1991-95. It is 9 years between
1982-1991. After that a drought kicked in around 2005. It is 10 years
between 1995-2005. 9 years is a multiple of 18 and 36, which are lunar
cycles. We can surmise that the next El Nino and Australian drought period
of significance may click in around 2011-12.
It is for each farmer to check his/her records and work these trends out for
their particular properties, as not all will be affected in the same way.
Simply apply 9-10yr jumps.
By moon cycles, here is the outlook for the regions at present feeling
anxious:
Waikato
You have got a possible dry February coming up, then a wet March.
All up a wetter than average year, with most rain coming in the second half
of 2008. Wettest months August, March, and May. Driest months Feb, Apr, and
December. Winter may be relatively dry, but August is the danger month for
heavy rain.
Overall a warmer than average year. The warmest period should be February to
June, and the coldest, September to October. Frosts are expected to start
around May 20th and continue until June 21st.
Bay of Plenty
Expect a very dry February, and a slightly wetter than average March.
Estimated 20% wetter than average year. wettest months August, November and
July. Driest months February, December, and April.
August extremely wet. July to November may be miserably rainy, expected
clearing in December.
January may be cooler than normal and cloudier. Warmest months of the year
February to May for Tauranga and Whakatane and February to August for the
south to Rotorua and the east to Opotiki. Colder than average months may be
September and October.
Canterbury
The first four months of the year may be worryingly dry but May brings
respite. About 9% drier, drier months July, April, and January. Then June,
March, December and February. Wetter than average September, November and
August. Then May and October. June and July dry out somewhat and most rain
amounts for the year may come between August and November.
Christchurch has no months this year with less than average sunshine,
whereas Hanmer and Kaikoura may have a cloudier August.
All months for Canterbury may be warmer than average except for an average
October.
South Canterbury
Summer and most of autumn and winter may be worryingly dry. So May's rains
may be well received.
Overall 10% drier than average. June driest, followed in order by April,
July, and December. Then August, March and February. January may be an
average month. Months wettest May, then November, September and October.
December will see a return to drier weather.
The only cloudier than normal month in the province may be during August for
Timaru.
Ashburton warmer than average from January to July.
Coastal Otago
A rather dry year with cause for concern except for these wetter months,.
September and October.
24% less rain than average. The driest months June, December and July. Then
March, February, April, January and November. Dunedin may have a warmer than
average year. The warmest month of summer should be February. April to June
warmer than average but August to October average to cooler.
Inland Otago
February to April may be dry months, and May to July are the months to plan
for getting the heavier rains.
A year of about 6% less than average rain overall. driest months are
September, February, April, March, August and November.. Wettest are May,
July, January and June. Alexandra may have a warmer than average year.
January to July should be warmer than average, August to October only
average, and November/December average to warmer.
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Going through the months of 2008 for NZ
January
wetter for both islands, (by about 7% and 5%)
May be the cloudiest month of year for Northland and Auckland
February
drier for both islands, (by about 45% )
It’s going to be one of driest months of year for Northland, Auckland,
Waikato, BoP, North Island West Coast and Taranaki, lower NI, top of SI, and
Inland Otago. But for Cant, S Cant and coastal Otago, only slightly drier
than average.
March
wetter than average in NI (by about 69%), drier in SI.
Lots of rain Nthld then dry till Aug.
One of wettest months for Northland, Waikato, C Plateau, NIWC Taranaki,
lower NI. Auckland, BoP and HB will have only slightly more rain than
average. But a drier month for Cant, S Cant, S hydrolakes, coastal Otago,
and inland Otago
April
drier than average for both islands, (by 62% for both)
One of the drier months of the year for Northland, Auckland(estimated driest
month for year), Waikato, BoP, C Plat(driest), HB, NIWC Taranaki(driest),
lower NI(driest), top of SI(driest), S hydrolakes(driest)
May
wetter than average for both islands, (by about 24% and 81%), South Island
West Coast (wettest), S Cant(estimated wettest month for year),
Southland(wettest)
June- July
drier than average for both islands, (by about 13% for both). Coastal
Otago(June driest month for year), Cant(July driest for year),
August
wetter than average for both islands, (by about 63% and 37%) August-October,
wet for Northland, Northland(wettest), Auckland(wettest), Waikato(wettest),
BoP(wettest), HB(wettest), NIWC and Taranaki (wettest), top of SI(wettest),
and one of the wettest months for C Plateau. Drier than average month for
Southland.
September
average rain in NI, drier than average in SI, (by about 21%). South Island
West Coast (driest month for year), Inland Otago(driest), Cant(wettest),
coastal Otago(wettest for year)
October-November
wetter for both islands, (by about 4% and 15%) S hydro(Oct wettest month for
year), Southland(Nov driest)
December,
drier than average month for both islands (by about 40% for both).
More in the pages of the 420-page Predict Weather Almanac for NZ 2008
(Random House NZ publishers), on sale now in most bookshops in NZ. Limited
stock.
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Is oil running out – or in?
Are we being screwed by the oil companies, big time? Do they create false
shortages so they can raise prices however they wish?
American or British geologists say the world's supply of oil was deposited
in horizontal reservoirs near the surface in a process that took millions of
years. It is a ‘fossil fuel,’ a biological residue derived from crushed
animal and vegetative matter and hence in finite supply. In some cases,
according to the theory, huge amounts have been concealed between rock
formations in the shallower ocean offshore as in the Gulf of Mexico or North
Sea or Gulf of Guinea.
Oil and renewable resource are not words that often appear in the same
sentence. Since the economies of entire countries ride on the fundamental
notion that oil reserves are exhaustible, any contrary evidence would
arguably turn the world view upside down. Is ‘peak oil’ a hoax perpetrated
by environmentalists and hippies? If oil is not finite then the price should
come down, the panic to find alternatives would be over and in the
realisation that oil is harmless to the environment the first casualty would
be the international banking system, backed up by the cost of the US dollar
which in turn is governed by the cost of oil.
No one knows if we are using up something much faster than it was created.
Even to say known reserves of ABC will be exhausted by period XYZ at current
consumption rates is to deny that new reserves will be discovered during
XYZ. But more importantly, we can confidently observe that in nature
everything recycles. It is possible but highly improbable that oil is the
sole exception. It is more likely that oil is renewable and can be compared
to air or underground water. If we can positively establish that the amount
of oil being returned to or remaining in the earth equals or exceeds the
amount extracted from it by the number of humans using it then any oil
“problem” disappears. The sun's hydrogen is also a finite resource, and at
some point in the future our local star is certain to die, and when it does
our planet will die with it. But no one lays awake at night worrying over
that.
To assess the oil reserves we must estimate the starting number of barrels
of oil in the ground and how much we have so far used. We will never know
either answer. So why do so many environmentalists paint a doom-filled
picture?
The evidence is more of oil running in, rather than running out. The Eugene
Island case is an example. Production at this oil field deep in the Gulf of
Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, was supposed to have declined years ago.
Following its 1973 discovery, production slowed from 15,000 barrels a day to
about 4,000 in 1989. The field is now producing 13,000 barrels a day, and
probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million barrels from 60
million. Scientists studying the field say the crude coming out of the pipe
is of a geological age quite different from the oil that gushed 10 years
ago. This means Eugene Island is rapidly refilling itself, perhaps from some
continuous source miles below the Earth's surface.
It now looks as though the world contains far more recoverable oil than was
believed even 20 years ago. The world's greatest oil pool, the Middle East,
has more than doubled its reserves in the past 20 years, despite half a
century of intense exploitation and relatively few new discoveries. It would
take a pretty big pile of dead dinosaurs and prehistoric plants to account
for the estimated 660 billion barrels of oil in the region.
Just when we thought we were running out of oil, technology came along to
extract oil from shale rocks in the mid west and Canada. Brazil recently
went from 17th to the rank of 10th biggest oil producer. China has made 10
major new discoveries this year alone. India is finding energy offshore.
Russia is a major producer. Last year Mexico made a huge offshore discovery
it has yet to tap and NZ found oil off the southeast coast near Southland.
New technologies now recover resources from old wells previously thought
tapped out, they can create oil from formerly useless resources, like tar
sands, and recover oil and natural gas from previously impossible geography,
like the deep blue sea miles beneath the surface.
The somewhat buried reality is that oil may not have come from dinosaurs or
forests smashed under rocks. More and more scientists are now coming to a
belief that oil is "a-biotic", continuing to be replaced by chemical
processes in the crust of the earth. Russia is now the world’s largest oil
producer and natural gas producer. The Russians have been saying the
fossil-caused oil theory is an unscientific absurdity that is unprovable
since the early 1950’s, but the idea is still almost unknown in the West. To
the Russians, oil supply on earth is limited only by the amount of organic
hydrocarbon constituents present deep in the earth at the time of the
earth’s formation. They claim oil is formed deep in the earth, formed in
conditions of very high temperature and very high pressure like that
required for diamonds to form. That oil is a biological residue of plant and
animal fossil is seen as a hoax designed to perpetuate the myth of limited
supply.
In the 1980s the Russians went to Vietnam and offered to finance a-biotic
drilling costs. The company Petrosov drilled Vietnam’s White Tiger oilfield
offshore into basalt rock some 17,000 feet down and extracted 6,000 barrels
a day of oil to feed the energy-starved Vietnam economy. By the mid-1980’s
the USSR emerged as the world’s largest oil producer. To have produced the
amount of oil to date that Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field has produced would
have required a cube of fossilized dinosaur detritus, assuming 100%
conversion efficiency, measuring 19 miles deep, wide and high. In short, an
absurdity. Meanwhile, Western geologists do not bother to offer hard
scientific proof of fossil origins. They merely assert it as a holy truth.
The 2003 arrest of Russian Mikhail Khodorkovsky, of Yukos Oil, took place
just before he could sell a dominant stake in Yukos to ExxonMobil after
Khodorkovsky had a private meeting with Dick Cheney. Had Exxon got the stake
they would have gotten control of the world’s largest resource of geologists
and engineers trained in the a-biotic techniques of deep drilling. Why then
the high-risk war to control Iraq? For a century US and allied Western oil
giants have controlled world oil via control of Saudi Arabia or Kuwait or
Nigeria. Today, as many giant fields are declining, the companies see the
state-controlled oilfields of Iraq and Iran as the largest remaining base of
cheap, easy oil. With the huge demand for oil from China and now India, some
say it becomes a geopolitical imperative for the United States to take
direct, military control of those Middle East reserves as fast as possible.
Vice President Dick Cheney came to his job from Halliburton Corp., the
world’s largest oil geophysical services company.
There is no hard evidence of a lack of crude oil in the world. Global oil
use = 31.5 billion barrels per year. One barrel oil = 42 U.S. gallons. One
cubic foot = 7.48 U.S. gallons. One cubic mile = 147.2 billion cubic feet.
So the volume of oil consumed by mankind annually = (31.5 x 42) / (7.48 x
147.2) = 1.2 cubic miles of oil per year. The volume of the earth is 260,000
million cubic miles. If by volume a millionth of the interior of the earth
contains oil, there is enough to last 260,000 years. But if 1/250,000 of the
earth is oil, which is only about the volume of the Mediterranean Sea, and
which does not seem at all unreasonable, at the present rate of consumption
we can drive our SUVs around for another million years. You read it right,
one million years.
Sources
editorial, "Brazil's Not Peaking," Investor's Business Daily, December 14,
2007. Courtesy: NCPA)
http://resources.alibaba.com/topic/214496/Oil_is_not_a_finite_resource_.htm
www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net.
http://www.oralchelation.com/faq/wsj4.htm (Wall St Journal 16/4/99)
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=282528707587055
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New website
Our reconstructed website has been in development all last year and was due
to go live today, 25 January, but continual last-minute teething problems
have arisen preventing this. Readers will find all sorts of fascinating
features, including the facility to find weather up to 2010 for most towns
in both countries. We apologise for this delay and thank you for your
patience. Meanwhile we are still offering the longrange service, by email
negotiation on enqui-@predictweather.com Tell us what place and date you
are requiring a report for.
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New almanacs
The Predict Weather Almanac for New Zealand 2008 has been on sale from
September 19th. This year new features include a fishing bite times diary as
well as the ski and surf diaries, also a temperature trend readout for the
year for main cities. The book is published by Random House NZ and is
available in bookstores throughout the country. 420 pages, over 60 towns,
Cost: $44
The Predict Weather Almanac for Australia 2008 has also been released, first
as a limited edition and now into a second print run, probably the last. It
runs to 521 pages and covers 152 towns and regions. This year's book also
has new features including ski and fishing diaries, also timetables of
nationwide fogs, frosts, floods, snow, storms, hailstorms, thunderstorms and
gales. Because this year we were obliged to self-publish, the book is not in
the retail distributing system, only available in some Australian bookshops,
and can be ordered from our Auckland office. It is not the ideal situation
and we apologise, but our publisher pulled out, no reasons given, even
though the total 2007 print run had been sold.
Orders need to be prepaid. Personal cheque is fine. No money orders please,
also no internet deposit - the banks impose an extra $30 for currency
exchange. Cost: $44AUS + 12AUS postage from NZ to Australia, =$56AUS
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Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. Allow an
error of up to 2 days for all forecasts. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested
parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of
commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights
Reserved (c) Ken Ring Ltd 2007
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CONTACT DETAILS
Editor: Ken Ring,
ph 09-817-7625, mobile 021 970-696
From Australia: 0011-649-817-7625
e-mail: enqui-@predictweather.com
For purchasing goods and services:
Postal: Ken Ring Ltd, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland, 0642, New Zealand.
Internet deposit details: Bank=ASB,
Account name=Ken Ring Ltd, Account number=12-3109-0041109-00 Australian
clients please note, internet deposit incurs hefty bank fees. Personal
cheques (no money orders!) are preferred and are the quickest.
http://www.predictweather.com
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