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WEATHER EZINE November 15, 2008
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Weatherman
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Nov 16, 2008 01:03 PST
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Weather By The Moon
The Truth about Weather and Climate
WEATHER EZINE November 15, 2008
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MOON IN NOVEMBER
13th: full moon
14th: perigee 4th closest for year
15th: northern declination
20th: last quarter
22nd: crossing equator heading north
28th: New Moon
29th: southern declination
30th: Apogee
Moon notes
Full moon and perigee
Perigee is when the moon comes closer to earth every 27 days. There are
normally about 13 perigees per year. Full moon needs no explanation. These
two occurring together on the same day or 1-3 days apart is a the
combination driving heat in spring/summer and causing milder temperatures in
autumn/winter. The closer the perigee the more heat that is generated.
Burn-times in summer are between full moon-last quarter. Drought years are
when a close FM+P combination occurs every month during summer. The last
time this happened was from Nov 2000-May 2001. This year a close FM+P
combination occurs every month from October 2008-March 2009. Expect warmer
than average temperatures in the southern hemisphere. In the northern
hemisphere the close FM+P combination straddles the winter months and so
milder temperatures can be expected.
Northern declination
N dec is when the moon has reached its northernmost point for the month in
its north-south-north again trek across earth's latitude lines. At N dec it
sits over nearly 27degN. In two weeks time on 1 December it will be over its
furtherest point south for the month, nearly 25degS. At declination times
the moon is stationary and running parallel to the earth. Effects are windy
conditions either at this time or within two days. For the northern
hemisphere in winter effects are increased cold from the generation of
northerly winds. For the southern hemisphere winds are about to come from
the north, bringing warm moist air from the direction of the equator. N dec
lasts about 2-3 days. Whatever weather conditions were taking place
beforehand generally is sustained through the 2-3 day period. Because the
moon's orbiting speed relative to earth has temporarily decreased, weather
systems tend to slow. It is the time when official metservices get extended
forecast weather the most correct, because the weather does not spring
unforeseen sudden surprises. When the moon starts going south again, drags
airflows with it and weather systems start to speed up. With northern
declination comes more earthquake activity, because the moon is lying at an
extended lateral angle and can better pull apart tectonic plates. As many
earthquakes occur in the ocean floor in deep underwater trenches,
shell-shocked whales and dolphins often become stranded around N dec.
Full Moon, N dec and perigee
Extreme weather always results around the globe. Full Moons are more
destructive in the northern hemisphere winter, but not so much in NZ in
November. In our summer the New Moon is our nemesis. We are relatively safe
from extreme weather until the New Moon of the 28th, which will be coupled
with a southern declination on the 29th.
The November Full moon is called the Full Beaver Moon. For both the
colonists and the Algonquin tribes, this was the time to set beaver traps
before the swamps froze, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. This full
Moon was also called the Frost Moon.
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NZ weather update
The full moon, perigee and northernmost point for the month, are three
factors that at this time of year produce northerlies which lead to more
heat around, which generates clouds which lead to rain. But these clouds are
mainly in the daytime, and the evenings and nights should be relatively
clear.
Odd showers are mainly from Waikato to Gisborne, because the low pressure is
mainly in the south half of the NI, hardly any Auckland northwards, then
chance of more showers Monday. Then it should clear up for the rest of the
week. The biggest rainfalls this month may be around the 21-23, and could be
the rain that will fill water tanks in holiday baches. Temperatures should
stay around 20C-23C until the week before Xmas, when some may get up to 25C,
then above 25C around 18 January. Much of Feb should be above 25C and then
from the beginning of March dropping back to between 20C-25C. I don't think
we'll be seeing above 30Cs in Auckland, but they may do in both HB and
Christchurch as early as 19 Dec.
Over November the whole NI should get 25% more rain than average, but the SI
should just be on average. For the North Island the first and last weeks of
the month should be the most unsettled. It should also be a cloudier month
than average. The Auckland YEARLY average is about 1150mm and we've had 1000
so far so we have to expect about 200 more to come.
December should be a similar pattern in that the rain should be in the first
week and some in the last week, but December will be a generally more
settled month with more sunshine.
Good waves in Piha for surfers at the moment, good SW swell building because
of the recent perigee. Should stay good at Piha all through next week, may
turn a bit lumpy on Wednesday. East coast beaches will be useless.
For where rain may fall for the whole country for November, click and scroll
down
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/articles/article_home.php?id=64
GENERAL FOR NOVEMBER
November may be wetter than average for the NI but average rain for the SI,
with most rain arriving in the fourth week. The NI should be a cloudier
month than normal, but the SI sunnier. During the first week blustery winds
may affect the NI. The third week may be the driest and the last ten days
bring a depression with widespread warm rain that brings much snow melt and
swells rivers.
Most likely rainfall times by region:
Northland to Hamilton incl BoP: 1st, 5th-7th, 14th-15th, 21st-25th,
27th-30th (heaviest 6th, 22nd, 29th) Western, Central North Is: 1st-3rd,
5th-10th, 13th-14th, 21st-25th, 27th-30th (heaviest 10th, 22nd, 30th)
Taupo: 1st-6th, 9th-10th, 14th, 21st-23rd, 28th-30th (heaviest 2nd, 22nd,
29th) Gisborne, HB: 1st-7th, 10th-11th, 14th, 22nd, 29th (heaviest 6th,
22nd, 29th) Lower North Is: 9th-11th, 14th-16th, 21st-25th, 27th-30th
(heaviest 10th, 22nd, 28th) Nelson and Marlborough: 6th, 9th-11th, 14th,
21st-22nd, 27th-30th(heaviest 10th, 22nd, 28th)
Canterbury: 1st, 6th, 9th-11th, 14th-15th, 21st-22nd, 28th-30th(heaviest
9th, 22nd, 28th) Inland Otago: 1st, 6th, 9th-10th, 21st-22nd,
27th-30th(heaviest 21st, 28th) Coastal Otago: 6th-11th, 14th-15th,
21st-22nd, 27th-30th(heaviest 9th, 29th)
Southland: 6th-11th, 14th-15th, 21st-22nd, 27th-28th(heaviest 21st)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 5th-9th, 12th-14th, 21st-22nd,
27th-29th(heaviest 8th, 13th, 21st, 28th)
NOVEMBER
After the 10th, temperatures may remain above average over the next four
weeks. The North Island may be wetter than average while in contrast it may
be very dry in Southland, the southern lakes and Fiordland. Marlborough and
Nelson may be wetter also Rotorua and Wellington.
11th - 20th: An anticyclone moves quickly across New Zealand with
southwesterlies prevailing on 11th, northwesterlies on 12th and southerlies
and westerlies by 13th. A weak ridge covers the country by 14th,
anticyclonic conditions continuing on 15th, replaced by a cool southwesterly
airstream and a series of cold fronts that move north. Conditions improve
again returning to anticyclonic by 17th. By 18th moist northerlies feature
ahead of a trough and by 19th a depression develops bringing southerlies to
eastern regions. The 20th and the 21st may see good rainfall at the top of
the South Island.
21st - 27th: Moist northerlies prevail on 21st and 22nd ahead of a trough in
the Tasman. A depression moves onto the North Island by 23rd to 24th
bringing a chance of heavy rain to the Coromandal Peninsula. Warmer
temperatures may come to the Haast area and southeasterlies may bring rain
to Gisborne. From 23rd until December 3rd, two depressions may bring low
pressure over the North Island and more east to northeast winds over the
country. By 25th a depression may lie over Northland while a ridge extends
onto the South Island replaced by a northwesterly airstream and a trough
moving onto the South Island by 27th. Gisborne clears about 27th.
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Australia weather update
Murray-Darling
For November, a depression passing through the Bight may send up a trough
between the 19th-26th which may develop into a depression over the central
districts of the country forcing a high over NSW to decay to a weak low
pressure system. Even so, no significant rainfall can be expected
throughout the inland districts for the rest of November.
It is not until mid December around 12th-13th that the next chance for some
rain can be expected. At this time a wide monsoonal trough over the central
districts of the country may cause some wet fronts to pass across the State
behind the high. Despite that, rainfall figures for northern inland
districts should continue to remain low and dry conditions may continue
throughout the Riverina. The monsoonal depression to the north of the
country extends a weak trough southward into NSW. Once more, it may remain
dry in the Riverina and southern districts of NSW with only a light shower
or two expected around the Upper Darlings and North West Plains around
18th-19th December. By 21st December, the monsoonal low pressure systems to
the north of the country continue to extend a wide trough between two highs
flowing through NSW, with rain developing over the far southeast of the
country where it joins up with a depression passing through the Southern
Ocean just south of TAS. Moderate rain can be expected in the Riverina
around 21st December, quickly followed by a dry spell until 30th-31st, when
showers return to southern inland districts but northern inland districts of
NSW continue to remain mostly fine and dry.
The Murray-Darling district can expect good rain by next June, but only
light falls until then.
Sydney summer(from Seven Network interview, Today Tonight)
Q: What can we expect in Temperatures over summer?
A: Summer temperatures should really get going around mid November in the
second week to over 35degC in places, and then again to that level in the
3rd week of DECEMBER and still be above 35 in the last week of February, but
temperatures should then suddenly drop in the second week of March. But
Canberra probably won't drop below 30C until the end of March.
Q: Above or below average?
A: Consistently high Ts rather than occasional high Ts, so a warmer than
average summer, depending on what you'd call average and some places are
going to be warmer than others, especially away from the coast. Stock up on
the suntan lotion.
Q: Specific days of extreme heat or cold?
A: The first week in Jan may be very hot, possibly above 40C, also the last
week of Jan and first week in Feb.
Q: Heatwaves?
A: There'll be hot temperatures around the second and third weeks of Nov,
Dec and Jan because the moon will be very close then at the same time as
being in the north and full moon time. In summer time that's a recipe for a
lot of heat.
Q: What about Rainfall over summer months?
A: November only about 3 or 4 rain days. NSW may get some hailstorms because
they usually peak in November. If so they'll be most likely between 19-24
and be around northern and western suburbs of Sydney and Green Cape, Point
perpendicular and Katoomba. December, a mostly drier month for State,
although chance of dumps around 10th, 14th, and 19th, but after that no big
amounts till end of Jan/1st week Feb.
Q: Above or below average?
A: November to February all below average.
Q: Where the rain will fall? (ie north/south of Sydney; metropolitan;
catchment areas - Warragamba)
A: I have Penrith down for the chance of a couple of heavy falls in
November, then Sydney and Wagga Wagga around Dec 19-21, it may be
Wollongong's turn in the third week of January, and everywhere in Feb around
the first week, middle and last few days.
I think Warragamba is in for heavy falls at beginning and middle of Feb. and
then not much till mid June.
Q: Any other unusual weather phenomenon expected over summer such as:
A: Strong winds? gales mid Jan, beginning and end of Feb. Severe storms? mid
Nov, mid Dec, and mid Jan, in Sydney. East coast lows or stagnant high
pressure systems? HP systems. Cyclones? one possibly in the last week of
January, another one may threaten in the first week of February and finally
one more around the last week of March
Q: How will 08/09 compare to last summer and to previous summers generally
(ie does this summer align historically with a specific year) in terms of
rain and temperature?
A: patterns of summers, 1888/89, 1953/54, 1976-78, 1987/88, synoptic
patterns: similar to summer of 1989/90
Brisbane summer
Q: What can we expect in Temperatures over summer?
A: Summer temperatures should really get going around mid November in the
second week to over 30degC higher around the end of Nov, and then AGAIN to
30 and above through DECEMBER and still be above 30 in the last week of
February, but temperatures should then suddenly drop below 30 at the
beginning of March.
Q: Above or below average?
A: You'll probably get consistently high temps rather than occasional highs,
so warmer than average summer.
Q: Specific days of extreme heat or cold?
A: The last week of Nov may be fairly uncomfortable, and first week in Jan,
possibly close to 40C, also first week in Feb.
Q: Heatwaves?
A: There may be hot temperatures around the second and third weeks of Nov,
Dec and Jan because the moon will be very close then at the same time as
being in the north and full moon time. In summer time that's a recipe for a
lot of heat.
Q: What about Rainfall over summer months?
A: November only about 2 rain days, half average, a cut-off low 13th-17th,
strong winds, scattered thunderstorms and hail. Gales in Moreton third week
November. December, two thirds of avg, very warm mid month and high Ts
19th, 20th-23rd wet but Xmas dry. Then possible winds and extreme weather
28th-31st from a cyclonic system. January possibly two lots of rain, second
week and 27th, at least 100mm, from a cut-off low. A cloudy month, however
lots of threatening rain which doesn't arrive, a warmer humid month. Feb,
rain third wk Feb, then nothing til end of May, and third week June, but
you'll need it because after July a drought until Dec which will be a
soaking month.
Q: Above or below average?
A: November to February all below average.
Q: Where the rain will fall? (ie north/south of Brisbane; metropolitan;
catchment areas - Wivenhoe)
A: Most next year should be in drought. The district may get rain all in
one go, because the first and third weeks in Feb may see floods from
monsoonal rains coming across from Gulf and then flooding Burdekin. Dams: in
Wivenhoe there's a wait till rain this year until mid November, then mid
December. Mid and end of Jan, beginning and end of February, last week in
May, some in mid June then none till December. That will bring drought
relief. From second week in Jan some possible flooding from Cairns to
Townsville
Q: Any other unusual weather phenomenon expected over summer?
A: Strong winds? In last week Dec, on N and C coasts, then first week Jan on
N coast, cyclonic activity at end Jan/beginning Feb, another lot towards mid
Feb, and from Mar 5-Apr 6 more cyclonic activity. Severe storms? Chances in
mid Nov, mid Dec, and mid and end Jan, in Brisbane. East coast lows or
stagnant high pressure systems? HP systems, also fallout from monsoon season
Q: How will 08/09 compare to last summer and to previous summers generally
(ie does this summer align historically with a specific year) in terms of
rain and temperature?
A: patterns of summers, 1888/89, 1953/54, 1976-78, 1987/88, synoptic
patterns: similar to summer of 1989/90 For where rain may fall for the whole
country for November, click and scroll down
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/articles/article_home.php?id=63
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Dublin notes
November:
3rd week 14th-20th, - Unsettled, rain with downpours likely over the weekend
of the 15th-16th and much cooler temps but they'll rise again soon after.
Otherwise mostly fine by the end of that week
4th week - - a mostly fine week, with the chance of occasional scattered
shrs 19-27, but mild, until a big T drop about 28/29th (NM)and that will be
Start of Winter
December
May be cold enough for snow in places around 2nd and 19th. Perhaps 7 sunny
days in month, an unsettled start oscillating between fine days and showery
days, including a static air around mid week and fogs likely 5th/6th, 2nd
week - a wet front is likely to bring one or two thunderstorms and sleet in
some places but mainly this will be a week of just threatening rain, so I've
got it mostly dry from aro 6th-15th. Some rain 17th and 19th Then a mostly
fine but mostly cloudy period can be expected in the days leading up to Xmas
with fogs and mists likely around the 18th-22nd. Cloud and threat of rain
around the 23rd, some subzero Ts, so even the chance of some very fleeting
snow flurries, no big system delivering dumps though. Subzero Ts also around
Xmas day, but mostly fine, a wee bit warmer than usual bought about by a
steady southerly airflow. Then low pressure straight after Xmas day brings
some light showery conditions about the 29th, or even a snow dusting, a fog
or a frost aro 30th, before conditions clear once more for a fine, and quite
warm, New Years day.
Asrologically 25th-27th December - Venus conj Neptune - this is often called
a snow maker, fogs, but against that the moon is in Sagittarius which is
warm and pleasant and tends towards thaw.
Forecasts:
We can now do forecasts, any time ahead, for Dublin, Malin, Shannon and
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estimated daily rain, sunshine hours and maximum and minimum temperatures.
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Here Comes The Sun(spots)
It is the approach of summer, and the Sun is emerging from a deep sleep.
Parts of Canterbury may reach maximums of over 30C as early as 19 December.
But something else is also stirring into life - the tide of increased
electromagnetic intensity on the Sun. Black mole-like marks called
'sunspots', in reality regions of strong magnetic field, are re-gathering on
the Sun's surface after a long absence.
Counting the black dots was once the practice of Chinese and Indian
astronomers, using rock-crystal lenses, and by Galileo, who ground his own
lenses from glass. Modern day counting of sunspot regularity began with
Solar Cycle 1 which peaked around 1761. Solar Cycle 23 has recently finished
and scientists have been waiting for a while for signs that SC24 is about to
get underway.
The spots can be up to 50,000 km in diameter and the activity cycle is 9-13
years. For convenience we identify 11 and 22 year turnarounds. 2007 is now
considered to be the nadir of the last SC; the end of a low point in sunspot
mins. Low sunspot activity brings drought conditions, because less heat
causes less evaporation which serves less rain. High sunspot activity
equates to drought conditions too, because despite higher evaporation
greater ground heat keeps clouds elevated delaying rain, and although more
rain is generated it falls out at sea. It is in the period between solar
mins and max's that we get the greatest chances of La Nina rain conditions.
Let us look back in time. Other min years have been 1843, 1856, 1867, 1879,
1890, 1901, 1913, 1924, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1985, 1996, and 2008.
Because SC23 in size resembles SC19 which peaked in 1957 and was followed by
20 cooler years, even when SC24 revs up it will likewise begin two decades
of cooler temperatures. 1972/3 was a big El Nino year, with a severe drought
in Canterbury. It is no surprise that 1972 was a solar max year. Droughts
reoccur in the same place about every 9 years. From 1972 add 9 and get
1981/82. 1982/3 was the year of the next solar max and also brought drought.
Nine further years to 1991/92 - another solar max and very dry year. Nine
more years to the next solar max in 2001/02, and another drought. It does
not take a genius to work out the pattern.
In solar max years huge sunspots and intense solar flares become a daily
occurrence. Auroras appear in Florida. Radiation storms knock out
satellites. Radio blackouts frustrate hams. The last such episode took place
around 2000-2001. During solar min the opposite occurs. Solar flares are
almost nonexistent while whole weeks go by without a single, tiny sunspot to
break the monotony of the blank Sun. That is what we have been experiencing
for the past two years.
The average solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14
months. SC23 (the one we are experiencing now) has lasted 142 months-- not
abnormal, so the current minimum has not been unusual. The longest minimum
on record, the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, lasted an incredible 70 years.
The solar cycle seemed to break down completely. During that time came the
Little Ice Age, a series of extraordinarily bitter winters in Earth's
northern hemisphere. The sunspot cycle revived itself in the early 18th
century.
Now, after two years of eerie calm, sunspots are returning. Last month there
were five sunspot groups; a real increase in solar activity. Four of the
five belonged to the new SC24. 2008 is emerging as a year of overlap with
both cycles weakly active at the same time. From January to September, the
Sun produced 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonging to spent SC23. October
added five more; but this time 80% belonged to SC24. The tables have turned.
At first glance, old- and new-cycle sunspots look the same, but they are
not. To tell the difference, solar physicists check two things: a spot's
latitude on the Sun and its magnetic polarity. New-cycle sunspots appear at
high latitude, while old-cycle spots cluster around the Sun's equator, and
the magnetic polarity of new-cycle spots is reversed compared to old-cycle
spots. Four of October's five sunspot groups satisfied these two criteria
for membership in SC24. On Nov. 3rd and 4th, a flurry of solar flares made
themselves felt on Earth. X-rays bathed the dayside of our planet and sent
waves of ionization rippling through the atmosphere over Europe. Hams
monitoring VLF radio beacons noticed strange "fades" and "surges" caused by
the sudden ionospheric disturbances.
So it's a start. Stay tuned for solar activity. SC24 should pick up speed
halfway through next year and will determine the temperatures in the next
decade. Parched parts of Australia should receive drought-relieving rain
around next June. Warmer world temperatures should come around 2013, about
the time SC24 will be at peak. This correlates well to the El Nino Southern
Oscillation Index which indicates the next drought for NZ and Australia to
be between 2011-13.
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Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. Allow an
error of up to 2 days for all forecasts. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested
parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of
commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken
Ring Ltd 2008
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