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WEATHER EZINE November 26, 2008
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Weatherman
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Nov 25, 2008 20:21 PST
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Weather By The Moon
The Truth about Weather and Climate
WEATHER EZINE November 26, 2008
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MOON DIARY
20th: last quarter
22nd: crossing equator heading south
28th: New Moon
29th: southern declination
30th: Apogee
6th: first quarter
7th: crossing equator heading north
Moon notes
New moon Southern hemisphere summer
In our summer, New Moons occur around the southern declination, and because
the atmosphere is attracted to this side of the earth at that time, and with
the assistance of the sun's gravitational pull, the height of the atmosphere
is greater. Then, as the atmosphere is our blanket, we get warm humid
conditions with greater cloud cover. The increased height of the atmosphere
protects what is below from too much rain. And from now on, those conditions
are what we'll get around or just after each New moon until about March.
New moon and gardens
Over the full moon period everything retains water, which means you don't
have to water plants so much around full phase in the month as you have to
for new moon phase. In the past, full moon was when they used to pick fruit,
because fruit were the juiciest. So the opposite is that around new moon you
have to water more, especially in the morning, because the moon rises with
the sun and the plants reach up to get the benefit of the energy of both and
the energy direction is all upwards. So that means weight gets less around
the new moon time. I am informed that some people in weight watchers are
wise to this and so weigh themselves on new moon because they get more
points for being lighter..
Southern declination
The southern declination typically brings dry weather conditions to the
northern half of the NI of NZ from a few days just beforehand. SD weather is
typically dry in the north and calm in the south as cooler southerlies kick
in. Barometer levels are usually up. The South Is. always gets fronts
passing through in the days immediately following the SD. The SD is also a
time for increase in earthquakes, mainly in the northern hemisphere. The
southern declination is the furthest south the moon reaches in its monthly
north-south declination cycle of 27.5 days. After the southern declination
the moon starts its trek northward, bringing air flows from the cold south
polar regions. NZ nearly always gets southerlies and maybe a cold snap at
that time, and that is what we had all last winter. Readers will recall big
snowdumps, a bonanza for skiers but disastrous for motorists. These occured
just a couple of days after the southern declination for each month of the
winter. In 2008 SDs, and corresponding cold snaps were on 22 May, 18 June,
16 July, 11 Aug, 8 Sept, 6 Oct and 2 Nov. Those who have kept records might
like to pick any November and check the southern declination dates to see if
there was a following cold snap. For instance, November 2001 saw the SD on
the 19th. We would expect an adverse weather event around the 21st, caused
by cooling. So what happened? 180mm fell in Southland, lifting normal river
levels by over a metre and flooding roads and highways near Riverton. Strong
winds and heavy rain lashed New South Wales and Premier Bob Carr declared
metropolitan Sydney a disastrous area. How about the previous year? In
November 2000 the SD was on the 29th. Headlines in all newspapers later THAT
VERY DAY reported "FREAK FROST RAVAGES HAWKES BAY VINES" Boutique wine
producers were 90% washed out. Previous SD's occurred on November 12th 1999,
November 23rd 1998 and November 4th 1997. What happened just after those
dates can be seen again in the newspaper reports below:
November 16th 2002
FROSTS HAVE DESTROYED 70% OF HAWKES BAY'S CHARDONNAY CROP.Metservice
is expecting an unseasonably cold spell to hit the country..Desert Rd gets
snow.."
November 29th, 2000(SD 29th)
"FREAK FROST RAVAGES HAWKES BAY VINES"
Boutique wine producers have been 90% washed out...
November 18th, 1999(SD 12th)
"Southland and Otago reel from the worst floods in 120 years..as the
Clutha River flowed at 6 times its normal volume..
22nd -Jim Salinger of NIWA blamed a pool of cold air..for the
unsettled and colder weather
November 22nd-29th 1998(SD 23rd)
Wild weather all week forced the Auckland Santa Parade to be postponed
and the Ellerslie Flower Show was abandoned. A storm swept the North Is
bringing down power lines and battering boats and homes..
November 10th 1997(SD 4th)
"Massive storm lashes Hamilton..Metservice forecaster Steve Ready said
southwest winds gusted to 100mph.snow in the central North Is. blocked
roads.."
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NZ weather update
Expect another lot of rain coming this Friday then to continue for about a
week on and off every few days, until 7 December, and then completely clear
for the whole country in the second week of December, so good time to have
an early holiday then, and for some NI places that fine weather will last
until the 29th of December, a run of dry weather. But in the SI, not such a
good picture in December. The second week may be the best one in the month
but much rain likely in the second half of the month, not for Canterbury but
mainly in the west and south. In December the NI should be drier than
average but the SI slightly wetter. December rain should be in the first
week and some in the last week, but December will be a generally more
settled month with more sunshine. Most of December's rain for the whole
country will be on the WC of the SI and spilling into the far south. For
where rain may fall for the whole country for November and December, click
and scroll down
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/articles/article_home.php?id=64
GENERAL FOR NOVEMBER
The last ten days bring a depression with widespread warm rain that brings
much snow melt and swells rivers.
Most likely rainfall times by region left in November:
Northland to Hamilton incl BoP: 27th-30th
Western, Central North Is: 27th-30th
Taupo: 28th-30th
Gisborne, HB: 29th
Lower North Is: 27th-30th
Nelson and Marlborough: 27th-30th
Canterbury: 28th-30th
Inland Otago: 27th-30th
Coastal Otago: 27th-30th)
Southland: 27th-28th
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 27th-29th
NOVEMBER
Last ezine and on p287 of the almanac 2008 we said "From 23rd until December
3rd, two depressions may bring low pressure over the North Island and more
east to northeast winds over the country. By 25th a depression may lie over
Northland while a ridge extends onto the South Island replaced by a
northwesterly airstream and a trough moving onto the South Island by 27th.
Gisborne clears about 27th". We've just had ONE, so we're one down, one to
go and I the next low pressure system is arriving about Friday. Because it
is new moon most rain will be overnight. You may wake up on Friday and
Saturday to a wet ground.
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GENERAL FOR DECEMBER
December may be drier than average for the NI but wetter than average rain
for the SI, especially for the West Coast and Southland. Most NI rain
arrives in the first ten days and the last few days. Hawkes Bay may only get
about 4-5 rain days. Both islands should be sunnier than normal. Around the
mid month comes chance of extreme weather including heavy rain in both
Auckland and Canterbury. Further heavy falls may raise rivers to unsafe
levels about 28th.
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RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE MOON
RH tells how close the air is to being saturated. It's the ratio of the
amount of water ACTUALLY in the air compared to the maximum amount required
for saturation at that temperature. So it is the amount of vapor over the
amount that the air can hold. RH is usually higher in the morning because
night air is cooler and so the air can hold less vapour, and as the sun
heats the ground the air can hold more vapour and so the RH decreases as the
day progresses. Relative humidity depends on temperature and pressure. How
does the moon come into the equation? In a calm atmosphere when the moon
sets at night, temperature decreases and atmospheric pressure can increase.
RH rises. The opposite is true: when the moon sets in the daytime,
temperature goes up, pressure can go down and relative humidity also can go
down. The warmer air can hold more moisture (for not using water vapour so
many times) and that is reflected by relative humidity values going down.
As the sun and moon set together (new moon), if temperature goes down,
pressure can go up and relative humidity may go down, allowing more moisture
to fill the empty space in the atmosphere. New moon days are often pleasant,
because RH comes down to the 60% range. There is no water vapour leaving the
atmosphere when temperature starts to go down. It only happens when dew
point is reached and condensation is produced. That will happen when
temperatures are low enough - approaching freezing point, and there is not
much radiation going out from the ground. We should always keep an eye on
where the moon is with respect to rising and setting times and being above
or below horizon, temperature, pressure, dew point, surface temperature, and
of course the force of winds, that can influence all calculations.
RH is always slightly higher in the morning. Usually when RH sits around 60%
it is fine, and right now in Auckland it is 50-60%, a fine day. RH almost
never goes below 50% in Auckland. It does go lower in a colder place like
Dunedin. I can remember as an Otago University student hanging up washing at
night and by morning it was dry. It can get down to the 30% range in
Queenstown, Dunedin and even Wellington. It is common for the Chateau to get
down to around 15%. In drier air places like Newcastle RH can also get to
low levels.
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AUSTRALIA DIARY
Central Coast
Forecast for Christmas and New Years
- fine and hot at times from 22 December till 7 January. That week after NYD
may get into the 40s. It could be close to a record warmest summer for
Sydney and Canberra, with consistently high temperatures rather than the
occasional hot days. Xmas day itself should be fine and sunny. S change
expected about the 30th/31st with moderate to heavy thdstms in the S and E
of the State up to Jan 2nd, so hail and strong winds in some places. Hot
weather and strong dry winds may bring a bush fire threat especially to
Central Coast and Hunter. December, a mostly drier month although chance of
dumps around 10th-14th, and 19th-21st, but after that no big amounts till
just after the middle of Jan and into the1st week Feb.
As for the dams, Warragamba is in for heavy falls at beginning and middle of
Feb. and then not much till mid June. Cyclones? one possibly in the last
week of January, another one may threaten in the first week of February and
one more around the last week of March.
Sunshine Coast/Cooloola coasts
A dry Xmas period is likely, after showers mid December and again around
21st. The next lot of good rain may occur in the first few days of January.
From 18th-27th of January should be hot and dry, before more rain in the
last days of the month. Temperatures should be above 30C around Xmas, and
rise steeply to over 40C around the change to new year, accompanied by
strong northerly winds, which should present a bush fire risk. The hottest
parts in January may be both at the start and at the end of the month.
Expect between 9 and 13 rain days in January, and between 10-17 rain days in
February. Heaviest rain between 1-2 January and 28 January - 9 February.
2009 may be a dry year, with many rain deficiencies. Well below rainfall
averages March-December, with the exception of a wetter-than-normal June.
The beginnings of the next El Nino may stir around November, but not come to
fruition until 2011. The longest relatively dry spell may extend from July
to mid October.
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Topic Article
CLIMATE CHANGE
The call to arms at the moment is that "we must stop climate change". Okay,
then while we are at it we might also want to stop earthquakes, volcanoes
and possibly the rotation of Earth, for all those contribute to the change
of climate. Then there is the geographical location of countries, because
distance from the equator largely determines seasonal temperature trends. As
the poles slowly shift over thousands of years, countries find themselves at
varying latitudes and thus experiencing more warmed, colder, drier or wetter
seasons than in previous thousands of years. Using our state-of-art
technology we need to be able to move the equatorial line as we require.
This should be at the whim of the UN and Al Gore, because the contentment of
polar bears and seal populations is vastly more important than the welfare
of humans. We know this because there are currently lots of laws being
drafted about species-conservation but no international recommendations of
legislative measures for the protection of threatened members of our race,
many facing extinction from colder winters.
We also need to change the movement of the sun through the Milky Way galaxy,
because solar radiation cycles that cause ice ages are contributory to
climate change. The chemical composition of water might also be looked at,
because at the moment the steam molecule is lighter than air and rises to
form clouds but the cooler liquid H2O molecule is heavier than air and sinks
as rain, in which amounts these contribute to climate. The ice molecule
must also be altered to allow ice to thaw at -70C, which is the current
winter temperature at the South Pole, and even at 0C which is the current
summer temperature 1000 miles south of the North Pole. Otherwise the pesky
poles will not stay melted all year around, and snow and ice will return
each winter. The average height of the atmosphere will also have to be
altered. At present it is only 3-4 miles high at the poles, compared with
12-15 miles at the equator, which means that presently the cold of space
always comes closer to the polar ground, freezing everything in sight. Truth
be known, the ice caps serve no useful purpose except as freakish landscapes
which block shipping and endanger kayakers. Climate change is affected by
their continuing presence and international pressure must be organised to
eliminate these barren regions. Actually anywhere that trees don't grow is a
menace, because only trees can soak up CO2 which causes climate change. So
that means all deserts, beaches, airport tarmacs, tennis courts, streets,
bridges and rooftops will also have to be eliminated.
Then there is the shape and positioning of mountain ranges. We must urgently
relocate these. It is rather pointless tolerating the existence of steep
barren hillsides and oceans, all which contribute to climate change if no
people are prepared to live and grow forests on them. Farming, among other
practices, is counter-productive to climate and must be halted to stop
climate change. Animals that belch are catapulting the planet and solar
system - because Mars and Venus are also heating up so they must have
farting sheep too - towards a catastrophic end for the universe. Cows and
sheep take up land that could be used for forests. Only the Green Party know
the full extent of this, such is their advanced wisdom on the matter. Meat
and dairy production must be stopped. Nor is eating vegetables an option
either, as they need to be harvested, and that requires exercise which
produces CO2. All engines, heaters and lights must be stopped, because they
cause or contribute to climate change. Nor can we burn candles (wax produces
CO2), walk anywhere (puff out more CO2), or light fires (burning wood and
coal produces CO2). Add to that the brewing of beer and growing rice.
Fishing is ruinous to the climate because not only is it an industry that
uses boats that have engines which burn fuel, but it also enables people to
physically work, which produces CO2. And because it harms a species of
dolphin that already is sensitive to climate change, closing down fishing is
an environmental necessity.
All of life produces and consumes carbon, in an endless cycle. As carbon
contributes to climate change we must end life. Many measures are now in
place to achieve this. Taxes are being introduced that are forcing people
into homelessness and bankruptcy. The health service is grinding to a halt
because it is unworkable, allowing many to die, and there is no effective
police force left to prevent or adequately punish those who choose to
murder. Those in charge of our transport are doing a fine job of eradicating
life, with many road hazards like inadequate signage now in place,
especially near schools which are only built on dangerous corners, designing
cars that go ever faster on crumbling roads and a drinking culture that
ensures plenty of driving errors. Larger loads on trucks are now being
introduced that will increase the numbers of these accidents. Finally the
world's seas, the sky, and the troposphere, through the loss and gain of
carbon dioxide absorption and surface release of carbon dioxide, have also
been found to affect climate change and therefore should be gotten rid of.
We cannot tip the sea into the sea because that has already been done.
Removal of the sky also poses problems. How to complete the task will no
doubt occupy the creative minds of generations to come. You can bet the
research grants are being applied for right now.
Source: Ken Ring
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/articles/article_home.php?id=46
Please send this article to your friends and enemies
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From last ezine, still relevant
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Australia weather update
Murray-Darling
For November, a depression passing through the Bight may send up a trough
between the 19th-26th which may develop into a depression over the central
districts of the country forcing a high over NSW to decay to a weak low
pressure system. Even so, no significant rainfall can be expected
throughout the inland districts for the rest of November.
It is not until mid December around 12th-13th that the next chance for some
rain can be expected. At this time a wide monsoonal trough over the central
districts of the country may cause some wet fronts to pass across the State
behind the high. Despite that, rainfall figures for northern inland
districts should continue to remain low and dry conditions may continue
throughout the Riverina. The monsoonal depression to the north of the
country extends a weak trough southward into NSW. Once more, it may remain
dry in the Riverina and southern districts of NSW with only a light shower
or two expected around the Upper Darlings and North West Plains around
18th-19th December. By 21st December, the monsoonal low pressure systems to
the north of the country continue to extend a wide trough between two highs
flowing through NSW, with rain developing over the far southeast of the
country where it joins up with a depression passing through the Southern
Ocean just south of TAS. Moderate rain can be expected in the Riverina
around 21st December, quickly followed by a dry spell until 30th-31st, when
showers return to southern inland districts but northern inland districts of
NSW continue to remain mostly fine and dry.
The Murray-Darling district can expect good rain by next June, but only
light falls until then.
Sydney summer(from Seven Network interview, Today Tonight)
Q: What can we expect in Temperatures over summer?
A: Summer temperatures should really get going around mid November in the
second week to over 35degC in places, and then again to that level in the
3rd week of DECEMBER and still be above 35 in the last week of February, but
temperatures should then suddenly drop in the second week of March. But
Canberra probably won't drop below 30C until the end of March.
Q: Above or below average?
A: Consistently high Ts rather than occasional high Ts, so a warmer than
average summer, depending on what you'd call average and some places are
going to be warmer than others, especially away from the coast. Stock up on
the suntan lotion.
Q: Specific days of extreme heat or cold?
A: The first week in Jan may be very hot, possibly above 40C, also the last
week of Jan and first week in Feb.
Q: Heatwaves?
A: There'll be hot temperatures around the second and third weeks of Nov,
Dec and Jan because the moon will be very close then at the same time as
being in the north and full moon time. In summer time that's a recipe for a
lot of heat.
Q: What about Rainfall over summer months?
A: November only about 3 or 4 rain days. NSW may get some hailstorms because
they usually peak in November. If so they'll be most likely between 19-24
and be around northern and western suburbs of Sydney and Green Cape, Point
perpendicular and Katoomba. December, a mostly drier month for State,
although chance of dumps around 10th, 14th, and 19th, but after that no big
amounts till end of Jan/1st week Feb.
Q: Above or below average?
A: November to February all below average.
Q: Where the rain will fall? (ie north/south of Sydney; metropolitan;
catchment areas - Warragamba)
A: I have Penrith down for the chance of a couple of heavy falls in
November, then Sydney and Wagga Wagga around Dec 19-21, it may be
Wollongong's turn in the third week of January, and everywhere in Feb around
the first week, middle and last few days.
I think Warragamba is in for heavy falls at beginning and middle of Feb. and
then not much till mid June.
Q: Any other unusual weather phenomenon expected over summer such as:
A: Strong winds? gales mid Jan, beginning and end of Feb. Severe storms? mid
Nov, mid Dec, and mid Jan, in Sydney. East coast lows or stagnant high
pressure systems? HP systems. Cyclones? one possibly in the last week of
January, another one may threaten in the first week of February and finally
one more around the last week of March
Q: How will 08/09 compare to last summer and to previous summers generally
(ie does this summer align historically with a specific year) in terms of
rain and temperature?
A: patterns of summers, 1888/89, 1953/54, 1976-78, 1987/88, synoptic
patterns: similar to summer of 1989/90
Brisbane summer
Q: What can we expect in Temperatures over summer?
A: Summer temperatures should really get going around mid November in the
second week to over 30degC higher around the end of Nov, and then AGAIN to
30 and above through DECEMBER and still be above 30 in the last week of
February, but temperatures should then suddenly drop below 30 at the
beginning of March.
Q: Above or below average?
A: You'll probably get consistently high temps rather than occasional highs,
so warmer than average summer.
Q: Specific days of extreme heat or cold?
A: The last week of Nov may be fairly uncomfortable, and first week in Jan,
possibly close to 40C, also first week in Feb.
Q: Heatwaves?
A: There may be hot temperatures around the second and third weeks of Nov,
Dec and Jan because the moon will be very close then at the same time as
being in the north and full moon time. In summer time that's a recipe for a
lot of heat.
Q: What about Rainfall over summer months?
A: November only about 2 rain days, half average, a cut-off low 13th-17th,
strong winds, scattered thunderstorms and hail. Gales in Moreton third week
November. December, two thirds of avg, very warm mid month and high Ts
19th, 20th-23rd wet but Xmas dry. Then possible winds and extreme weather
28th-31st from a cyclonic system. January possibly two lots of rain, second
week and 27th, at least 100mm, from a cut-off low. A cloudy month, however
lots of threatening rain which doesn't arrive, a warmer humid month. Feb,
rain third wk Feb, then nothing til end of May, and third week June, but
you'll need it because after July a drought until Dec which will be a
soaking month.
Q: Above or below average?
A: November to February all below average.
Q: Where the rain will fall? (ie north/south of Brisbane; metropolitan;
catchment areas - Wivenhoe)
A: Most next year should be in drought. The district may get rain all in
one go, because the first and third weeks in Feb may see floods from
monsoonal rains coming across from Gulf and then flooding Burdekin. Dams: in
Wivenhoe there's a wait till rain this year until mid November, then mid
December. Mid and end of Jan, beginning and end of February, last week in
May, some in mid June then none till December. That will bring drought
relief. From second week in Jan some possible flooding from Cairns to
Townsville
Q: Any other unusual weather phenomenon expected over summer?
A: Strong winds? In last week Dec, on N and C coasts, then first week Jan on
N coast, cyclonic activity at end Jan/beginning Feb, another lot towards mid
Feb, and from Mar 5-Apr 6 more cyclonic activity. Severe storms? Chances in
mid Nov, mid Dec, and mid and end Jan, in Brisbane. East coast lows or
stagnant high pressure systems? HP systems, also fallout from monsoon season
Q: How will 08/09 compare to last summer and to previous summers generally
(ie does this summer align historically with a specific year) in terms of
rain and temperature?
A: patterns of summers, 1888/89, 1953/54, 1976-78, 1987/88, synoptic
patterns: similar to summer of 1989/90 For where rain may fall for the whole
country for November and December, click and scroll down
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/articles/article_home.php?id=63
============================================================================
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The Australian Predict weather almanac for 2009 is available now. Covers 120
towns and all States. Contains DAILY rain distribution maps, isobaric,
gardening information, temperature trend graphs, fishing tables and bite
times, as well as weather and moon phases. Many summaries for towns and
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write amount in NZ dollars (56NZD). Australian regional reports are being
made available. The SE Agricultural Region report is purchaseable online at
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be ready soon.
The NZ Predict Weather Almanac 2009 is available. Covers 64 towns and all
regions. Contains DAILY rain distribution maps, also frost maps, isobaric
maps, gardening information, temperature trend graphs, fishing tables and
bite times, best surfing spots daily, as well as weather and moon phases.
Many summaries for towns and States and trend articles for all regions.
Cost: $44 includes post.
Can be purchased online at https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/shop/ or
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/tipjar/ .
============================================================================
Dublin notes
November:
3rd week 14th-20th, - Unsettled, rain with downpours likely over the weekend
of the 15th-16th and much cooler temps but they'll rise again soon after.
Otherwise mostly fine by the end of that week
4th week - - a mostly fine week, with the chance of occasional scattered
shrs 19-27, but mild, until a big T drop about 28/29th (NM)and that will be
Start of Winter
December
May be cold enough for snow in places around 2nd and 19th. Perhaps 7 sunny
days in month, an unsettled start oscillating between fine days and showery
days, including a static air around mid week and fogs likely 5th/6th, 2nd
week - a wet front is likely to bring one or two thunderstorms and sleet in
some places but mainly this will be a week of just threatening rain, so I've
got it mostly dry from aro 6th-15th. Some rain 17th and 19th Then a mostly
fine but mostly cloudy period can be expected in the days leading up to Xmas
with fogs and mists likely around the 18th-22nd. Cloud and threat of rain
around the 23rd, some subzero Ts, so even the chance of some very fleeting
snow flurries, no big system delivering dumps though. Subzero Ts also around
Xmas day, but mostly fine, a wee bit warmer than usual bought about by a
steady southerly airflow. Then low pressure straight after Xmas day brings
some light showery conditions about the 29th, or even a snow dusting, a fog
or a frost aro 30th, before conditions clear once more for a fine, and quite
warm, New Years day.
Asrologically 25th-27th December - Venus conj Neptune - this is often called
a snow maker, fogs, but against that the moon is in Sagittarius which is
warm and pleasant and tends towards thaw.
Forecasts:
We can now do forecasts, any time ahead, for Dublin, Malin, Shannon and
Cork. We can offer any forecasts for these areas, for any time period ahead.
Our reports consist of excel spreadsheets of daily entries for any of the
above locations and any period requested. The parameters provided are
estimated daily rain, sunshine hours and maximum and minimum temperatures.
Reports and graphs are sent as pdf files that can be read on any computer.
Charges are: for a week 11 EUR, and 69 EUR for a year. As for purchasing, if
you email us your credit card details we can do the transaction. Or you can
do the transaction yourself on https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/tipjar/
and email to tell us you have done it. If ordering this way you need to make
amounts in NZ dollars because that is how the website is geared. We can tell
you what this is or you can find out by going to the currency converter at
http://www.xe.com/ucc/
============================================================================
Here Comes The Sun(spots)
It is the approach of summer, and the Sun is emerging from a deep sleep.
Parts of Canterbury may reach maximums of over 30C as early as 19 December.
But something else is also stirring into life - the tide of increased
electromagnetic intensity on the Sun. Black mole-like marks called
'sunspots', in reality regions of strong magnetic field, are re-gathering on
the Sun's surface after a long absence.
Counting the black dots was once the practice of Chinese and Indian
astronomers, using rock-crystal lenses, and by Galileo, who ground his own
lenses from glass. Modern day counting of sunspot regularity began with
Solar Cycle 1 which peaked around 1761. Solar Cycle 23 has recently finished
and scientists have been waiting for a while for signs that SC24 is about to
get underway.
The spots can be up to 50,000 km in diameter and the activity cycle is 9-13
years. For convenience we identify 11 and 22 year turnarounds. 2007 is now
considered to be the nadir of the last SC; the end of a low point in sunspot
mins. Low sunspot activity brings drought conditions, because less heat
causes less evaporation which serves less rain. High sunspot activity
equates to drought conditions too, because despite higher evaporation
greater ground heat keeps clouds elevated delaying rain, and although more
rain is generated it falls out at sea. It is in the period between solar
mins and max's that we get the greatest chances of La Nina rain conditions.
Let us look back in time. Other min years have been 1843, 1856, 1867, 1879,
1890, 1901, 1913, 1924, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1985, 1996, and 2008.
Because SC23 in size resembles SC19 which peaked in 1957 and was followed by
20 cooler years, even when SC24 revs up it will likewise begin two decades
of cooler temperatures. 1972/3 was a big El Nino year, with a severe drought
in Canterbury. It is no surprise that 1972 was a solar max year. Droughts
reoccur in the same place about every 9 years. From 1972 add 9 and get
1981/82. 1982/3 was the year of the next solar max and also brought drought.
Nine further years to 1991/92 - another solar max and very dry year. Nine
more years to the next solar max in 2001/02, and another drought. It does
not take a genius to work out the pattern.
In solar max years huge sunspots and intense solar flares become a daily
occurrence. Auroras appear in Florida. Radiation storms knock out
satellites. Radio blackouts frustrate hams. The last such episode took place
around 2000-2001. During solar min the opposite occurs. Solar flares are
almost nonexistent while whole weeks go by without a single, tiny sunspot to
break the monotony of the blank Sun. That is what we have been experiencing
for the past two years.
The average solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14
months. SC23 (the one we are experiencing now) has lasted 142 months-- not
abnormal, so the current minimum has not been unusual. The longest minimum
on record, the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, lasted an incredible 70 years.
The solar cycle seemed to break down completely. During that time came the
Little Ice Age, a series of extraordinarily bitter winters in Earth's
northern hemisphere. The sunspot cycle revived itself in the early 18th
century.
Now, after two years of eerie calm, sunspots are returning. Last month there
were five sunspot groups; a real increase in solar activity. Four of the
five belonged to the new SC24. 2008 is emerging as a year of overlap with
both cycles weakly active at the same time. From January to September, the
Sun produced 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonging to spent SC23. October
added five more; but this time 80% belonged to SC24. The tables have turned.
At first glance, old- and new-cycle sunspots look the same, but they are
not. To tell the difference, solar physicists check two things: a spot's
latitude on the Sun and its magnetic polarity. New-cycle sunspots appear at
high latitude, while old-cycle spots cluster around the Sun's equator, and
the magnetic polarity of new-cycle spots is reversed compared to old-cycle
spots. Four of October's five sunspot groups satisfied these two criteria
for membership in SC24. On Nov. 3rd and 4th, a flurry of solar flares made
themselves felt on Earth. X-rays bathed the dayside of our planet and sent
waves of ionization rippling through the atmosphere over Europe. Hams
monitoring VLF radio beacons noticed strange "fades" and "surges" caused by
the sudden ionospheric disturbances.
So it's a start. Stay tuned for solar activity. SC24 should pick up speed
halfway through next year and will determine the temperatures in the next
decade. Parched parts of Australia should receive drought-relieving rain
around next June. Warmer world temperatures should come around 2013, about
the time SC24 will be at peak. This correlates well to the El Nino Southern
Oscillation Index which indicates the next drought for NZ and Australia to
be between 2011-13.
============================================================================
Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. Allow an
error of up to 2 days for all forecasts. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested
parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of
commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken
Ring Ltd 2008
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