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WEATHER EZINE January 6, 2009
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Weatherman
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Jan 06, 2009 13:15 PST
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Weather By The Moon
The Truth about Weather and Climate
WEATHER EZINE January 6, 2009
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MOON DIARY
3rd: crossing equator heading north
4th: first quarter
9th: northern declination
10th: perigee(second closest for 2009)
11th: Full Moon
15th: crossing equator heading south
18th: last quarter
Moon notes
Full Moon, declination and perigee,
This combination brings extreme weather around the globe. Full Moons are
more destructive in the northern hemisphere winter, but not so much down
here in January. In our summer the New Moon is our nemesis. A close perigee
such as this can cause rough seas in Cook Strait and southerly gales. The
Wahine disaster in 1968 occurred 3 days before a combined full moon and
perigee. We also start to see an upsurge in earthquakes. We are relatively
secure until the New Moon of the 28th, which will be coupled with a southern
declination happening on the 23rd. Cyclonic weather is expected to develop
in the last days of January, bringing grief to campers.
Crossing equator
This is also called Lunar Equinox. Due to the moon's orbit around a tilted
earth, the moon effectively changes hemispheres over the course of a 27-day
month. Moonrise is above the equator twice a month. Whenever this happens,
as it did on 3 January, we experience brief weather change, generally for
the worse. Equatorial crossing can bring wind and electrical atmospheric
events resulting in brief thunderstorms, sudden downpours, even snow or
hail.
The moon almost never crosses the equator without there being a palapable
and unmistakable weather change. Usually there is a simultameous disturbance
of barometer and thermometer.
First quarter
During first quarter, mornings are typically cooler whatever the season,
because the moon is absent from the sky from midnight until after noon.
Because at this time the moon is above the horizon on the opposite side of
the earth, it is unable to pull up the air on this side, which allows cooler
overnight air from space to reach closer to the ground because there is less
air thickness to impede it. With no sun to counteract the cooling, mornings
start off chilly. Fogs and mists are common in low-lying areas. The 1st
Quarter Moon is the Moon you see in daylight in the afternoon. Its glare
(nearly 4 times fainter than that of the Full Moon) is in the sky in the
evening, but if you wait up till about midnight it will be seen then to set.
Typical of the 1st Quarter could be cloud or rain (if about) before lunch,
with clearer skies from lunchtime to midnight. Viewed from space over the
North Pole the Moon would be to the right of Earth, and forming a
Moon-Earth-Sun right-angle. Because the Moon is sitting on our orbital path
around the sun, at first quarter the moon is at the point Earth will reach
in three and a half hours.
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NZ weather update
3rd-10th: Warmer northerlies flow over NZ. Changeable westerlies prevail
through to 10th. Highlights over the next 4 weeks may be wet and cloudy in
Westland and along the Southland coast, very dry in the N and some eastern
areas, and windy in places. Rainfall may be low in places in Northland,
Auckland and some eastern regions of both islands. The period may also be
windy and warm, caused by anticyclones to the north of the country with
frequent W/NW airstreams over the SI. The average temperature for the whole
country may be half a degree above average over the next 4 weeks. This
continues the trend of above average temperatures begun in June 2006.
However, temperatures may be below average in S Westland. Warmest
temperatures may be in Central Otago. In contrast, the W/NW winds may keep
temperatures close to average in Wellington, Nelson, N Westland and
Fiordland. Anticyclones may track over the N of NZ with frequent W/NW
airstreams over the rest of the country. As a result it could be windier
then usual especially around Wellington. About 17th, high winds from the NW
may affect Canterbury. For Wellington it may prove to be one of the
windiest Januarys on record.
11th- Feb 2nd: Some falls expected in the NI this coming weekend, 10th-12th,
clearing by Tuesday, but no significant rainfall in Northland, Auckland, HB,
S Cant and Otago until February 2nd.
For where rain may fall for the whole country for January and February,
click and scroll down
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/assets/articles/article_home.php?id=64
GENERAL FOR NZ for JANUARY
Despite odd thunderstorms, most places may be drier than average. Driest:
Northland, Auckland and Hawkes Bay. In second half of the month, the wettest
may be SI west coast, Southland and S Canterbury. Southern Hawkes Bay,
Masterton and the top of the SI may get most sunshine. Warmest may be HB,
and Marlborough to Otago. Depressions pass through the country in the second
and last weeks, and to the south of the NI in the third week. Frosts may
come to Central NI and Southland around 19th-20th. Soil moisture levels may
be low over NI, Marlborough, Nelson and Canterbury. Increased fire risk for
BoP and HB.
Most likely rainfall times by region in rest of January:
Northland to Hamilton incl BoP: 7th-8th, 12th, 17th, 25th-26th, 31st
(heaviest 2nd, 26th)
Western, Central North Is: 6th-8th, 11th-12th, 17th-19th, 24th-26th,
30th-31st (heaviest 17th, 26th)
Taupo: 1st, 8th, 11th, 17th, 25th-26th, 30th(heaviest 26th)
Gisborne, HB: 10th-12th, 19th, 26th, 29th (heaviest 10th)
Lower North Is: 8th-12th, 17th-19th, 24th-26th, 28th, 30th-31st (heaviest
19th, 26th)
Nelson and Marlborough: 7th, 11th, 17th-19th, 25th-26th, 30th-31st
(heaviest 11th, 30th)
Canterbury: 6th-7th, 11th-12th, 17th-18th, 26th, 28th-31st (heaviest 11th,
26th)
Inland Otago: 7th, 11th, 15th-18th, 25th-28th (heaviest 5th, 11th)
Coastal Otago: 7th-12th, 15th-19th, 26th-29th, 31st (heaviest 15th, 26th)
Southland: 7th-9th, 11th-12th, 14th-19th, 24th-28th (heaviest 3rd, 5th,
15th-18th)
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 3rd-11th, 15th-18th, 24th-26th, 29th-31st
(heaviest 15th-18th)
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AUSTRALIA: NEW REPORTS
Whilst the Australian Almanac is a country overview, we are constantly asked
to prepare regional reports as an option. We have now made available, via
our online Shop https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/shop/ the following
reports. They are in reality around 20-30mg in size, but are sold as
printable and downloadable pdf books. They are all comprehensive and
detailed, including graphs, covering from Jan-Dec 2009. Cost for each:
$35AUS
MURRAY – DARLING BASIN Regional Report 2009
This covers the sector of eastern Australia when a line is drawn from
Tambo to the north in Queensland, southeast to Toowoomba, all inland areas
to the west and of the Great Dividing Ranges, southward through all southern
inland districts of Queensland and New South Wales as far west as Broken
Hill, and south into the northern half of Victoria and along the
Murray-Darling River outlet in the southeast of South Australia, including
the Riverina region. Towns used in this report for Statistical Analysis
QLD: Tambo Augathella Charleville Morven Wyandra Roma Chinchilla Dalby Tara
Surat Cunnamulla Bollon St George Toowoomba Warwick Stanthorpe Goondiwindi
Hungerford
NSW: Lightning Ridge Wanaaring Wellington Bourke Brewarrina Forbes Walgett
Moree Bathurst Ashford Tenterfield Cowra Armidale Narrabri Young Byrock
Coonamble Broken Hill Gunnedah Coonabarrabran Menindee Tamworth Tilpa
Ivanhoe White Cliffs Wilcannia Pooncarie Cobar Mt Hope Hay Tottenham Nyngan
Griffith Ravensworth Dubbo West Wyalong Finley Narrandera Wagga Wagga Yass
Cooma Victoria Mildura Balranald Kerang Echuca Shepparton Omeo Seymour
Bendigo Horsham Nhill Ouyen
SA: Renmark Waikerie Murray Bridge
SOUTH EAST AGRICULTURAL REGION Report 2009
This covers the sector of Australia when a line is drawn from Ceduna in the
west of South Australia to Pt Augusta and east across through Broken Hill
and to Kempsey on the New South Wales Northern coast down and including the
State of Victoria. Towns used in this report for Statistical Analysis
SA: Ceduna, Kimba, Pt Augusta, Whyalla, Port Pirie, Burra, Murrays Bridge,
Renmark, Naracoola, Mt Garret
VIC: Mildura, Echuca, Horsham,Warracknabeal
NSW: Broken Hill, Ivanhoe, Griffith, Hay, Finlay, Narrandera, Wagga Wagga
SE QLD Regional Report for 2009
This report covers the sector of Queensland when a line is drawn from
Brisbane in the south, to Dalby and Toowoomba in the west, up to Bundaberg
to the north and out to the Tasman Sea covering the Gold Coast, through the
Moreton district, along the southern half of the South Coast and ending
around the Fraser Coast. Towns used for this report are
Darling Downs: Dalby, Kingaroy, Toowoomba
Moreton: Bundaberg, Maryborough, Gympie, Coloundra, Brisbane
Western Australia Agricultural Southwest Region report 2009
This report covers the sector of Western Australia when a line is drawn from
Geraldton on the North Coast southward down the coastline to the South Coast
district and east along the southern coastline to just east of Esperance,
northward up into the South East region and back to the North Coast,
including encompassing Norseman and Kalgoorlie but not as far north as
Leonora. Inside this region, the southwest Wheat Belt districts will be
covered in this report. Towns used in this report are
North Coast and Northern Wheat Belt: Geraldton, Morawa, Jurien Bay, Moora,
Dalwallinu, Beacon, Koorda, Benecubbin, Wongan Hills, Calingiri, Gingin,
Dowerin, Wyalkatchem, Trayning, Nungarin, Goomallin
Perth, Peel and Central Wheat Belt: Perth, Serpentine Dam, Mandurah,
Toodyay, Northam, Tammin, Kellerberrin, Merredin, Westonia, Southern Cross,
York, Beverley, Quairading, Bruce Rock, Narembeeen, Holleton, Brookton,
Corrigin, Pingelly, Kondinin
Southerm Wheat Belt: Wandering, Cuballing, Wickepin, Kulin, Lake Camm,
Williams, Narrogin, Darkan, Wagin, Dumbleyoung, Lake Grace, Newdegate, Lake
King,
Southwest and Great Southern Regions: Bunbury, Margaret River, Bridgetown,
Pemberton, Denmark, Albany, Katanning, Jerramungup, Jacup
Gold Fields/Esperance Region: Kalgoorlie, Menzies, Norseman, Esperance,
Laverton, Leonora, Jerdacuttup
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AUSTRALIA DIARY
NSW Central Coast
- fine and hot at times till 7 January. This week may get into the 40s in
some places. It could be close to a record warmest summer for Sydney and
Canberra, with consistently high temperatures rather than the occasional hot
days. Very warm in the last week of January carrying over to the first week
in Feb. We can expect a warmer than average summer, especially inland away
from the coast. Parts of NSW may still be above 35C by the last week of
February, after which temperatures may suddenly drop in the second week of
March. Canberra may not drop below 30C until around the end of March. No
big rain amounts are expected till just after the middle of Jan and into the
1st week of Feb. AThe driest time should be from 22 Dec through to mid
January with the sun the most intense between 9-11 January.
As for the dams, Warragamba is in for heavy falls at beginning and middle of
Feb. and then not much till mid June. Cyclones-one possibly in the last week
of January, another one may threaten in the first week of February and one
more around the last week of March. Any fires that are already going in mid
January may be fanned by gale force winds and also by the remains of
cyclones arriving at the beginning and end of Feb.
Sydney and NSW for 2009 are looking at rainfall deficiencies throughout the
year, most rain in June and December. So no big rains are expected until the
end of Jan and 1st week of Feb, which means drought conditions, water
restrictions and bush-fire risk, with good end-of-January-first
week-of-February rains bringing relief and even some FLOODING in Sydney. So
rain everywhere in February around the first week, the middle of the month
and the last few days. The DRIEST should be March to May and August through
to December. You'll lose your summer heat in mid March, and July to mid
September will be your coldest part of winter. The Snowy Mountains may get
some snow about the third week of THIS month, and Perisher may even still be
getting some snow happening in the last days of December.
Sunshine Coast/Cooloola coasts
From 18th-27th of January should be hot and dry, before more rain in the
last days of the month. The hottest parts in January may be both at the
start and at the end of the month. Expect between 9 and 13 rain days in
January, and between 10-17 rain days in February. Next heaviest rain
between 28 January - 9 February.
Will South East Queensland get much rain?
The monsoonal rains have started on cue mostly in the NT and are not
arriving in QLD until into the first week of 2009. There'll be three or four
months this year expected to be wetter than average(Jan, Feb, June and Dec).
Looking at summer, about a third drier overall is expected, with monsoonal
rains are unlikely to reach SE QLD until around the second week of this
month onwards. Then dry around inland areas until around the last couple of
days of January, while coastal areas continue to receive regular light
patchy falls. Then February should bring some rain relief. Then a dry
autumn overall, around a third of average rainfall.
Hotter/colder than average in 2009?
From the sunspot information we can take temperature estimates to be
slightly cooler than the average, especially over the summer months. Sunspot
Cycle 24 hasn't kicked in yet but should do so about June. It means not as
much intense summer evaporation as in other years so not as much rain being
produced
Any major cyclone activity in the first part of 2009?
A potential cyclonic system meandering around the Solomons to the Coral Sea
threatens the State in the first week of Feb. However, while most of the
rainfall and winds associated with this system can be expected to touch the
State further north, it is unlikely to make complete landfall and instead
move southeast off the coast and into the Tasman Sea. Then another cyclonic
system should start to form in late March around the Solomon’s and once more
threaten QLD in the first week of March, bringing hope of some significant
rain to the region. However, it is more probable that this cyclonic system
again will meander more around the Coral Sea and only briefly make landfall,
just north of the Fraser Coast around the 5th-7th. It could bring some
fallout rain to the region in the second week of March.
Other states:
QLD
Jan-Mar serious deficiencies even though monsoonal troughs may cause
flooding in Feb between Cairns and Townsville. In southern parts of QLD,
rainfall deficiencies continuing to the end of 2009 from Bundaberg to the
New South Wales border and west to Charleville.
Victoria
Autumn and spring very dry, winter rainfall some of the highest recorded in
some places.
Tasmania:
Cooler than average year, Summer deficient in rain until beginning of
Autumn. Winter slightly warmer, abundant snow to the highlands,
particularly in August. Early spring drier than usual, snow in the
highlands, above average rainfall in November, heavy rain in December may
bring some flooding to N and W.
South Australia
Below normal rainfall, espec Adelaide. The first 5 months of the year dry
but a relatively wet winter and early spring may boost the year’s total.
Western Australia
Rain BELOW average in the N and ABOVE average along the W coast south of
Carnarvon.
Perth, wetter and warmer than average year. There could be a total of 6-10
days over 40 deg C. The same situation occurred 1972 and 1973 which 2009
may resemble in trends. At least one tropical cyclone skirting down the
west coast is expected in late April - early May possibly causing damage
from strong winds. High winter rainfall particularly mid and end of June.
Several strong cold fronts may bring damaging winds to the lower west coast
during winter. Most notable one may be mid-August when strong gusts at
Fremantle are expected. Spring may also be wet and close to trends in 1973.
Northern Territories
Prolonged active phase of the monsoon in the early part of the year. Many
parts of C and N areas may get record high rainfalls. Rainfall above
average along the NW coast, below average in NE and in the SW Alice Springs
district as the monsoon trough brings the rain. An event about mid January
may deliver over 300mms in the space of 24-48 hours. But the monsoon may
NOT affect the SW parts and so those areas may be below average.
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Topic Article
Lessons from History on Climate Change.
A statement by Viv Forbes, Brisbane farmer, leading Australian skeptic and
Chairman of the Carbon Sense Coalition,
3 January 2009
The Carbon Sense Coalition today congratulated Senator Barnaby Joyce,
Senator Ron Boswell, Senator Cory Bernardi and Dr Dennis Jensen MP for their
principled stand against the Emissions Trading Scheme.
Releasing a new paper entitled 'Climate Change in Perspective' the Carbon
Sense Coalition said that changing climate was a permanent feature of
Earth's history: man did not cause it and cannot change it.
All over the world, politicians, scientists, taxpayers and shareholders are
waking up to the fact that they have been conned by the global warming
story. All we need to do is read a bit of climate history to get things into
perspective and realize how lucky we are today.
Within just the last 20,000 years, vast ice sheets melted from the earth's
surface, seas rose about 130m, temperatures rose well above present levels
several times, and as the seas warmed, they expelled their dissolved carbon
dioxide. Then just 300 years ago, earth suffered from the bitter cold and
famines caused by the Little Ice Age. Since about 1700AD, warmth created by
increasing solar activity has been driving back the deadly frosts, snow and
ice. Carbon dioxide is naturally expelled from the warming oceans to the
atmosphere. Humans have very little to do with it all.
All of these events were caused by and controlled by natural processes, and
all life on earth was forced to adapt or die. Despite continual increases in
man's emissions of carbon dioxide, the earth has not warmed since 1998. With
unseasonal snow, bitter frosts, power failures and lost crops being reported
every week, to send 10,000 pampered politicians and bureaucrats on a junket
to Poland to discuss 'Global warming' is surely a sick joke?
A growing number of politicians are now bravely stating what a large and
increasing number of scientists have been saying: There is no global warming
crisis, carbon dioxide is a benefit not a danger in the atmosphere, and the
whole Emissions Trading industry is shaping up to be a bigger financial
disaster than the sub-prime mess.
To read the full report from The Carbon Sense Coalition on Climate Change in
Perspective see:
http://carbon-sense.com/2009/01/02/climate-change-in-perspective/
For a link to the additional 650 scientists who signed their dissent over
Man-Made Global Warming claims and continue to debunk the so-called
'Consensus' in 2008 see:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=83
947f5d-d84a-4a84-ad5d-6e2d71db52d9&CFID=53242194&CFTOKEN=70206467
To read comments by Senator Joyce see:
http://www.agmates.com/blog/2008/12/17/barnaby-joyce-the-innate-problems-wit
h-labors-emissions-trading-scheme/
Viv Forbes
Chairman
The Carbon Sense Coalition
MS 23 Rosewood Qld 4340
0754 640 533
in-@carbon-sense.com www.carbon-sense.com
Please send this article further afield.
----------------------------------------------------------------
(What about reducing our costs of power huh?)
http://www.odt.co.nz/the-regions/central-otago/38364/dams-spilling-excess-wa
ter
Extract: Dams spilling excess water
By Ellie Constantine on Tue, 6 Jan 2009
The Regions: Central Otago
Southern hydro lakes have turned the tables on power companies as instead of
too little water, there is now too much, forcing "spilling" to occur.
Several factors, including heavy rainfall, a restricted HVDC cable and the
Tiwai Point aluminium smelter being at reduced capacity, meant lakes were
"brimming" with water, Meridian Energy external relations manager Claire
Shaw said. A transformer at Rio Tinto's Southern smelter failed in November,
putting one potline out of action and reducing the operation's power
consumption by 180MW. Warmer weather and the holiday period had also reduced
residential and commercial demand. Lake Pukaki and Lake Manapouri were both
at maximum level and started to spill yesterday, while Lake Tekapo was at
108% capacity and had been spilling water for the past 15 days, Ms Shaw
said. It was part of the company's resource consent to spill when lakes
reached maximum levels.
Rather than the usual concern of low lake levels, it was good news they were
full, she said. Contact Energy communications manager Jonathan Hill said
water was being held in Lake Hawea and was being spilled from the Clyde and
Roxburgh dams. The situation was "not ideal" nor in the "national interest",
he said. However, rather than having an excess of power, Contact was forced
to limit generation because the transmission grid was too constrained to
cope with dams operating at capacity, Mr Hill said. The situation
highlighted how critical a robust transmission network was. If it was
performing properly, it would be capable of getting power to where it was
needed.
Instead, "we are spilling water in the South and burning gas in the North".
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Rapid growth spurt leaves amount of ice at levels seen 29 years ago.
Science Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979
Thirty years of sea ice data. The record begins at 1979, the year
satellite observations began (Source: Arctic Research Center,
University of Illinois) Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global
sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also
drew to a close. Ice levels had been tracking lower throughout much of 2008,
but rapidly from September onward is the fastest rate of change on record,
either upwards or downwards. The data is being reported by the University of
Illinois's Arctic Climate Research Center, and is derived from satellite
observations of the Northern and Southern hemisphere polar regions. Each
year, millions of square kilometers of sea ice melt and refreeze. However,
the mean ice anomaly -- defined as the seasonally-adjusted difference
between the current value and the average from 1979-2000, varies much more
slowly. That anomaly now stands at just under zero, a value identical to one
recorded at the end of 1979, the year satellite record-keeping began.
Sea ice is floating and, unlike the massive ice sheets anchored to bedrock
in Greenland and Antarctica, doesn't affect ocean levels. However, due to
its transient nature, sea ice responds much faster to changes in temperature
or precipitation and is therefore a useful barometer of changing conditions.
Earlier this year, predictions were rife that the North Pole could melt
entirely in 2008. Instead, the Arctic ice saw a substantial recovery. Bill
Chapman, a researcher with the UIUC's Arctic Center, tells DailyTech this
was due in part to colder temperatures in the region. Chapman says wind
patterns have also been weaker this year. Strong winds can slow ice
formation as well as forcing ice into warmer waters where it will melt.
Why were predictions so wrong? Researchers had expected the newer sea ice,
which is thinner, to be less resilient and melt easier. Instead, the thinner
ice had less snow cover to insulate it from the bitterly cold air, and
therefore grew much faster than expected, according to the National Snow and
Ice Data Center.
In May, concerns over disappearing sea ice led the U.S. to officially list
the polar bear a threatened species, over objections from experts who
claimed the animal's numbers were increasing.
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ALMANACS AVAILABLE
The Australian Predict weather almanac for 2009 is available. Covers 120
towns and all States. Contains DAILY rain distribution maps, isobaric,
gardening information, temperature trend graphs, fishing tables and bite
times, as well as weather and moon phases. Many summaries for towns and
States and trend articles for all regions. Cost: $44AUD+12 post. Can be
purchased online at https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/tipjar/. Please write
amount in NZ dollars (67NZD). Australian regional reports are also
available. The SE Agricultural Region report, WA Agricultural Report, S
Australia Agricultural Report, SE QLD Regional Report and Murray-Darling
Basin Report are each purchaseable online at
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/shop/.
The NZ Predict Weather Almanac 2009 is available. Covers 64 towns and all
regions. Contains DAILY rain distribution maps, also frost maps, isobaric
maps, gardening information, temperature trend graphs, fishing tables and
bite times, best surfing spots daily, as well as weather and moon phases.
Many summaries for towns and States and trend articles for all regions.
Cost: $44 includes post.
Can be purchased online at https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/shop/ or
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/tipjar/.
============================================================================
Ireland and Japan notes
We can now do forecasts, any time ahead, for all areas in both countries,
for any time period ahead. Our reports consist of excel spreadsheets of
daily entries for any locations and any period requested. The parameters
provided are estimated daily rain, sunshine hours and maximum and minimum
temperatures. Reports and graphs are sent as pdf files that can be read on
any computer.
Charges are: for a week 12 EUR, and 70 EUR for a year. As for purchasing, if
you email us your credit card details we can do the transaction. Or you can
do the transaction yourself on https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/tipjar/
and email to tell us you have done it. If ordering this way you need to make
amounts in NZ dollars because that is how the website is geared. We can tell
you what this is or you can find out by going to the currency converter at
http://www.xe.com/ucc/
============================================================================
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Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. Allow an
error of up to 2 days for all forecasts. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested
parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of
commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken
Ring Ltd 2008
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From Australia: 0011-649-817-7625
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